Report Information - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, and high-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, with the August - September spread at $7.5, and the basis also fluctuated. The domestic and overseas spreads of FU showed differentiation between near and far months, with the July contract dropping to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the September contract fluctuating around $8. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated. [4][5] - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were at a moderate level. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunker fueling and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region, and cannot be used for physical delivery in the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipment volume will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. [5] - Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is running strongly, the domestic and overseas near-month spreads of FU are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. For the far-month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high. [5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 457.84 | 481.08 | 464.95 | 460.60 | 413.51 | -47.09 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 497.59 | 517.59 | 508.06 | 509.41 | 466.22 | -43.19 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -1.57 | -1.07 | -1.73 | -2.41 | -1.97 | 0.44 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 707.10 | 764.51 | 728.36 | 713.74 | 642.12 | -71.62 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -209.51 | -246.92 | -220.30 | -204.33 | -175.90 | 28.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 19.64 | 24.87 | 22.22 | 26.31 | 21.22 | -5.09 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 39.75 | 36.51 | 43.11 | 48.81 | 52.71 | 3.90 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 478.90 | 480.47 | 478.09 | 471.10 | 427.90 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 484.42 | 487.41 | 487.09 | 481.07 | 436.97 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 538.95 | 542.99 | 544.13 | 540.67 | 501.16 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.34 | 96.69 | 96.50 | 93.65 | 85.76 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.93 | 0.26 | -0.27 | -0.98 | -0.54 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -151.77 | -172.52 | -169.97 | -152.34 | -133.46 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 486.91 | 485.32 | 479.12 | 475.90 | 431.62 | -44.28 | | FOB VLSFO | 548.13 | 550.77 | 550.33 | 549.45 | 508.57 | -40.88 | | 380 Basis | 7.55 | 4.65 | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.75 | -0.90 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Overseas Spread | 9.2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 0.7 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Overseas Spread | 20.0 | 20.4 | 16.2 | 18.8 | 21.1 | 2.3 | [3] Domestic FU Futures Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 3119 | 3154 | 3152 | 3180 | 2895 | -285 | | FU 05 | 3044 | 3068 | 3079 | 3100 | 2850 | -250 | | FU 09 | 3333 | 3369 | 3363 | 3385 | 3065 | -320 | | FU 01 - 05 | 75 | 86 | 73 | 80 | 45 | -35 | | FU 05 - 09 | -289 | -301 | -284 | -285 | -215 | 70 | | FU 09 - 01 | 214 | 215 | 211 | 205 | 170 | -35 | [3] Domestic LU Futures Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3733 | 3787 | 3766 | 3815 | 3500 | -315 | | LU 05 | 3531 | 3674 | 3687 | 3701 | 3421 | -280 | | LU 09 | 3886 | 3948 | 3917 | 3968 | 3629 | -339 | | LU 01 - 05 | 202 | 113 | 79 | 114 | 79 | -35 | | LU 05 - 09 | -355 | -274 | -230 | -267 | -208 | 59 | | LU 09 - 01 | 153 | 161 | 151 | 153 | 129 | -24 | [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Research team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team - Report date: June 25, 2025 [3] Group 2: Futures Data Futures Contracts - The prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on June 24 were 3580, 3301, 3580, 3417, and 3341 respectively, with daily changes of -201, -171, -201, -203, and -190, and weekly changes of -87, -349, -87, -82, and -82 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on June 24 was 623,658, with a daily increase of 202,050 and a weekly increase of 180,885. The open interest was 531,329, with a daily decrease of 52,841 and a weekly decrease of 9,847 [4]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts on June 24 was 59,010, with a daily and weekly increase of 3,850 [4]. Group 3: Spot Market Data Regional Low - end Prices - The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets on June 24 were 3620, 3710, 3620, 3830, and 3980 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, -60, -50, and 0, and the weekly changes were 20, 30, 90, 50, and 50 [4]. Specific Spot Prices - The prices of Jingbo (Haiyun), Tianhai, and Xinhai (Xin Bohai) on June 24 were 3770, 3800, and 3830 respectively, with daily changes of -50, 0, and -50, and weekly changes of 70, 100, and 50 [4]. Price Differences between Regions - The price differences between Shandong - East China, Shandong - Northeast, and East China - South China on June 24 were -90, -360, and 90 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 0, and 60, and weekly changes of -10, -30, and -60 [4]. Group 4: Basis and Calendar Spread Data Basis - The Shandong, East China, and South China basis on June 24 were 40, 130, and 40 respectively, with daily increases of 201, 201, and 141, and weekly increases of 107, 117, and 177 [4]. Calendar Spread - The spreads of 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, and 12 - 03 on June 24 were 40, -279, 163, and 76 respectively, with daily changes of -19, 30, 2, and -13, and weekly changes of 267, -262, -5, and 0 [4]. Group 5: Crack Spread and Profit Data Crack Spread and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread on June 24 was -126, with a daily increase of 291 and a weekly increase of 282. The asphalt Marrow profit was -184, with a daily increase of 263 and a weekly increase of 254. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 506, with a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 377 [4]. Import Profits - The import profits from South Korea to East China and from Singapore to South China on June 24 were -119 and -790 respectively, with daily changes of 7 and -52, and weekly changes of -48 and 81 [4]. Group 6: Related Prices - The Brent crude oil price on June 24 was 71.5, with a daily decrease of 5.5 and a weekly decrease of 5. The gasoline, diesel, and residual oil prices in Shandong market on June 24 were 8113, 7068, and 3850 respectively, with daily changes of -43, -57, and -75, and weekly changes of 263, 253, and 75 [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the chemical demand is expected to rise, which may boost the market in Shandong, while the markets in East and South China are more likely to fluctuate. The geopolitical situation has significantly escalated, and the US attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - From June 1 to June 24, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG increased from 4660 to 4695, with a daily change of 45 on June 24 [1]. - The prices of propane CFR South, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, and CP forecast prices also fluctuated, and there were daily changes such as - 25 for MB propane spot on June 24 [1]. - The paper import profit showed a change of 248 on June 24, and the主力基差 changed by 319 [1]. Market Analysis - The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4667. The PP price dropped significantly, FEI and CP prices tumbled, PDH production profit improved, and the FEI production cost is higher than that of CP. The PG futures market declined significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread remained at 99 [1]. - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. Civil gas prices first rose and then fell due to continuous disturbances in international supply, but sufficient domestic supply and weak demand. The PG futures market strengthened unilaterally due to geopolitical impacts, the 07 contract basis weakened to 80 (- 141), and the spreads (07 - 08 and 07 - 09) weakened significantly [1]. - The outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread continued to strengthen, FEI - MB strengthened slightly, while FEI - CP and MB - CP weakened [1]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals were delayed, chemical demand increased slightly, port inventories and storage capacity ratios decreased, factory inventories were basically flat, and external sales were basically unchanged [1]. - Chemical demand was supported, PDH and MTBE operating rates increased, and the alkylation rate was basically flat. Many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads in the future, which will drive up the PDH operating rate [1]. - The number of registered warrants decreased by 647 to 8358 hands, mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and 377 in Shanghai Yuchi [1].

1. Index Movements - On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 3381.58 points, with a turnover of 442.789 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.43% to close at 10048.39 points, with a turnover of 679.817 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.31% with a turnover of 239.995 billion yuan, opening at 5966.5, closing at 6078.22, with a daily high of 6083.53 and a low of 5965.66 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.61% with a turnover of 146.035 billion yuan, opening at 5613.28, closing at 5674.17, with a daily high of 5684.4 and a low of 5613.28 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.41% with a turnover of 72.036 billion yuan, opening at 2664.64, closing at 2684.78, with a daily high of 2692.91 and a low of 2656.68 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% with a turnover of 232.482 billion yuan, opening at 3831.17, closing at 3857.9, with a daily high of 3867.59 and a low of 3827.08 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 78.63 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 34.66 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and national defense and military industry significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 300 rose 11.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as communication and food and beverage pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 11.06 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and coal significantly pulling the index up, while the food and beverage sector pulled the index down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 66.55, IM01 was - 141.01, IM02 was - 217.17, and IM03 was - 390.88 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 46.1, IC01 was - 97.95, IC02 was - 149.85, and IC03 was - 271.17 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 35.08, IF01 was - 50.58, IF02 was - 63.57, and IF03 was - 92.48 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was - 33.35, IH01 was - 35.67, IH02 was - 34.33, and IH03 was - 36.34 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][25][26]. - For IC, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][27]. - For IF, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [22]. - For IH, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [23][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel market maintains a volatile state, lacking a clear price - rebound driver. The cost - collapse narrative of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has increased. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited. It is recommended that industrial customers participate in hedging [6][7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the steel tender prices have been finalized, and the prices are temporarily stable. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - In the iron ore market, the basis has rapidly shrunk. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products showed different changes in prices, increases, and decreases. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated on Monday, and spot prices varied. The transaction volume rebounded to over 100,000 tons. The cost collapse of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a futures - at - discount - to - spot structure, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventory. Pay attention to short - term spreads for arbitrage on the futures market [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has exceeded 90%. The prices of some coking coal varieties have rebounded, and the prices of Mongolian coal in some regions have changed. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is priced at 1140 (-10), and the coking coal price index is 937.6 (-1.2) [6]. - **Futures Market**: The black chain index continued to oscillate strongly. The coking coal price closed above the 800 mark, mainly affected by strict safety inspections in the main producing areas. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited [6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Industrial customers are recommended to actively participate in hedging [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Tender Prices**: The new round of ferrosilicon tender price of a North China steel mill is 5500 yuan/ton (tax - included, ex - factory acceptance), a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 290 tons. The June silicomanganese alloy tender price of a large North China steel mill is 5650 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price and a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the May price, with a purchase quantity of 1700 tons, a 100 - ton increase compared to the previous month [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, but market confidence has slightly stabilized. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a long position in ferrosilicon and a short position in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading with options [7]. Iron Ore - **Basis and Transportation**: The basis has rapidly shrunk to 20 on Monday, and the optimal deliverable is brbf. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage [7]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price has fallen to narrow the basis. The molten iron output has slightly increased, and the steel mill inventory has significantly rebounded. Although the downstream steel demand in the off - season is better than expected, if the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping industry futures on June 24, 2025. They cover aspects such as price differences, basis, yields, exchange rates, and fundamental data, providing investors with a multi - dimensional view of market conditions [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the price differences of various contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures price differences, inter - period price differences, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 60.50, with a change of 12.54 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: It also shows the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of these price differences, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: The basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented. For instance, the TS basis is 1.8674, with a change of - 0.0681 compared to the previous day, and the IRR percentile is 43.20% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Price Differences**: Inter - period price differences and cross - variety price differences are also provided, such as the TS inter - period price difference between the next quarter and the current quarter is - 0.2380 [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver are reported. For example, the AU2508 contract closed at 781.30 yuan/gram on June 23, with a gain of 0.35% [5]. - **Yields and Exchange Rates**: The yields of US Treasury bonds and exchange rates such as the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate are also included, which can affect the prices of precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are provided, along with the changes in shipping rates. For example, the MAERSK shipping rate decreased by 3.31% from June 23 to June 24 [8]. - **Index and Futures Prices**: The settlement price indices of shipping routes and the prices of shipping futures contracts are reported, as well as the basis of the main contract [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container运力 supply, port - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators are presented, which can help analyze the fundamentals of the shipping industry [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: Economic indicators such as the US first - quarter current account and June consumer confidence index are provided [11]. - **Domestic Data**: Economic indicators and events related to black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities in the domestic market are reported, such as port inventories of iron ore and manganese ore [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated. Crude oil prices rose significantly. High - sulfur fuel oil with a large proportion of Iranian supply performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380 - cst monthly spread fluctuated, with the 8 - 9 month spread at $7.5. The basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between the near and far months of the FU inside - outside market. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 - cst crack spread in Singapore declined, and the monthly spread fluctuated [5]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, low - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's inventory decreased, floating storage inventory fluctuated, and the US inventory decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and the shipments were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region and not being able to participate in the physical delivery of the futures market. It is expected that Iran's future shipments will decline, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact scale will increase. Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the external market is running strongly, the near - month contracts of the FU inside - outside market are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply interruption on the far - month contracts, while the inside - outside valuation of the LU is high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$4.35 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +$1.35 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.68 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$14.62 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$15.97 | | LGO - Brent M1 | +$4.09 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$5.70 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | -$6.99 | | 180cst M1 | -$6.02 | | VLSFO M1 | -$3.46 | | Gasoil M1 | -$2.85 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.71 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$17.63 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$3.22 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.88 | | 380 Basis | +$0.95 | | High - sulfur Inside - outside Spread | +$0.8 | | Low - sulfur Inside - outside Spread | +$2.6 | [4] Domestic FU Futures Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +28 | | FU 05 | +21 | | FU 09 | +22 | | FU 01 - 05 | +7 | | FU 05 - 09 | -1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -6 | [4] Domestic LU Futures Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +49 | | LU 05 | +14 | | LU 09 | +51 | | LU 01 - 05 | +35 | | LU 05 - 09 | -37 | | LU 09 - 01 | +2 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, but there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - For MEG, the supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the report 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental: The PTA futures rebounded after a decline yesterday. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere, with slightly increased spot offers and a loosened basis. The mainstream suppliers offered forward cargoes. The June cargo was mainly traded at 09+260~270, and the price negotiation range was around 5220~5300. The July negotiation was scarce. The mainstream spot basis today is 09+264 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5247, and the 09 contract basis is 302, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.15 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.12 days, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Main Position: The net long position decreased, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Expectation: Although PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental: On Monday, the ethylene glycol price opened higher and then declined, with fair market negotiations. Affected by the news of the potential restart of Iranian plants, the ethylene glycol futures continued to decline. The afternoon trading was weak [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4570, and the 09 contract basis is 79, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 53.10 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.28 tons, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net short position increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the report 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply-Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply-Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [11]. - **Price and Margin Data**: Includes the prices and margins of various products such as naphtha, PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester fibers [12]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers [40]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [51]. - **Profit Analysis**: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers [59].

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - This week, high-sulfur cracking fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, Iran accounted for a large proportion of high-sulfur supply, and it performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, the 8-9 spread was $7.5, the basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between near and far months of FU at home and abroad. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 cracking in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated [4]. - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15%-20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is operating strongly, the near months of FU at home and abroad are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Pay attention to the impact of supply disruptions in the far months. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high [4][5]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$16.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -$9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.66 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$36.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$26.62 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$2.65 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$6.60 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +$1.14 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -$0.19 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$2.55 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$6.20 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.44 | | 380 Basis | -$1.95 | | High-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | +$0.8 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | -$4.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -2 | | FU 05 | +11 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -13 | | FU 05 - 09 | +17 | | FU 09 - 01 | -4 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -21 | | LU 05 | +13 | | LU 09 | -31 | | LU 01 - 05 | -34 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -10 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of oscillation, with different sub - sectors showing varying trends. There is no strong driving force for a significant rebound in the black metal sector in the short - term, and investors should adopt a cautious and wait - and - see approach, making specific trading decisions based on different varieties [5][62][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Tends to be bearish. Long - process steel mills have profit, and short - process profit is unstable. Overall production is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely without administrative requirements [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. There is a slight improvement in demand, and exports remain strong. However, the market is worried about the weakening of demand expectations, and the upward price drive is not strong [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The total inventory level is low, and the seasonal inventory reduction is slowing down. The industry is in an active de - stocking state [5] - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is stable, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 58, an increase of 7 from the previous week [5] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process production has profit, while short - process production profit is unstable, and the production cut amplitude has increased slightly [5] - **Valuation**: Neutral. There are thin profits in the industrial chain, with relatively low relative valuation and room for compression in absolute valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The real estate market has declined further, and the market has low expectations for incremental policies [5] - **Investment View**: Wait - and - see. There is no strong driving force for a rebound in the black metal sector in the off - season, and the basis structure of futures at a discount to spot can be used as a reference for basis trading [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, conduct rolling hedging and manage positions, and consider appropriate inventory rotation; for arbitrage, short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel; for basis trading, consider short - term basis trading [5] 3.2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has shown resilience, and the daily average hot - metal production has slightly increased. The profitability of steel mills is fair, and the hot - metal production has strong resilience in the off - season [62] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Domestic coal mines are in a state of mixed shutdown and resumption. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a medium - low level, and the shipping coal market sentiment has slightly improved [62] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has continued to decline, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall profits of coke enterprises are still good considering by - product revenues [62] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Downstream enterprises continue to maintain low inventory levels, and there are differences in coal mine data. As the end of the month approaches, the short - term supply disturbances may subside [62] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The fourth round of coke price cuts has been initiated, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, leading to an increase in basis trading [62] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have good profitability, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall situation of coke enterprises is still acceptable [62] - **Summary**: Bearish. Affected by the Israel - Palestine conflict and improved industrial data, the black metal sector has been strong, but the divergence between the futures and spot markets of coking coal and coke is large. It is recommended that industrial customers conduct hedging, and ordinary investors wait and see [62] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively conduct basis hedging; for arbitrage, long the spread between the September and January contracts of coking coal [62] 3.3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bearish. Iron ore shipments are seasonally increasing, and the arrival pressure will gradually materialize. The marginal increase in supply will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [111] - **Demand**: Bearish. Steel mill hot - metal production has slightly increased and remains at a relatively high level. Steel demand has shown resilience in the off - season, but the market is still waiting for a decline in downstream steel demand [111] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Port inventory has slightly decreased this period, but the subsequent inventory of ports and ships at anchor will continue to increase [111] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still high, and hot - metal production can remain at a high level in the short - term [111] - **Valuation**: Neutral. Hot - metal production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [111] - **Summary**: Neutral. The slight decline in hot - metal production has led to a transition from slight inventory reduction to slight inventory accumulation in port inventory. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, steel mill production cuts are necessary [111] - **Investment View**: Oscillation [111] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see [111]