Report Title - Nickel: Short-term cost support, weak expectations limit flexibility [1] - Stainless Steel: Negative feedback leads to an increase in marginal production cuts, making a deep decline difficult [2] Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has short-term cost support, but weak expectations limit its upward flexibility [1] - The stainless steel market experiences negative feedback, resulting in an increase in marginal production cuts, and it is difficult for prices to decline significantly [2] Fundamental Tracking Nickel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,480, down 2,920 from T - 5 and 3,700 from T - 22 [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 181,192, up 79,974 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 1 imported nickel is 120,375, down 3,175 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 954, up 5 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 250, down 37 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate import profit is - 2,830, up 382 from T - 5 [2] Stainless Steel - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,690, down 190 from T - 5 [2] - The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract is 139,550, up 21,935 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100, down 75 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, unchanged from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) is 12,775, unchanged from T - 5 [2] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will take effect on April 26, 2025 [2] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [3] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial production stage, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [5] - The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the government plans to implement an export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue the shutdown and maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7] - The trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of eggs is neutral, with a value of 0, indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg 2507 is 2,916 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 1.00%, trading volume change of 68,224, and position change of -16,075. The closing price of egg 2509 is 3,750 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.67%, trading volume change of 6,024, and position change of -4,374 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is -684 (previous day: -660), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is -834 (previous day: -840) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.05 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively. The corn spot price is 2,316 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 14.50 yuan/kg [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral market sentiment [1]

2025 年 05 月 30 日 工业硅：盘面再创新低 多晶硅：波动有所放大，建议谨慎持仓 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 7,215 | -125 | -665 | -1,660 | | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 539,683 | -85,158 | 331,286 | 392,397 | | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 224,146 | -1,923 | 40,456 | 41,493 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 35,280 | 180 | -800 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 145,339 | -7,933 | 19,077 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 78,271 | -1,59 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Styrene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PX: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PTA: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Short Fiber: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Methanol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Urea: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PVC: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Caustic Soda: One red star, representing a bullish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Glass: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] - Soda Ash: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and seasonal factors that affect their prices and market outlooks [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is expected to be weak. Coastal olefin plant utilization has increased, but imports have led to port inventory accumulation. Coal prices are falling, and domestic production is high, with post - holiday inventory build - up expected [2] Urea - Urea futures prices are falling. Agricultural demand is scattered, and compound fertilizer production is decreasing. Exports are becoming clearer, and production enterprises have large inventory accumulations. The short - term market will be weakly volatile [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rose slightly. Macro news has boosted market sentiment, but polyethylene demand is in the off - season, and the polypropylene market is in a state of low supply and demand [4] Polyesters - The polyester industry has different trends. PX and PTA prices rebounded, but PX supply - demand is weakening. Ethylene glycol prices followed the rebound but face future pressure. Short - fiber prices rebounded, and bottle chips are in the peak season [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are falling due to cost reduction and supply - demand imbalance. There is new production expected in June, and exports may weaken. Caustic soda inventory is decreasing, but demand is not strong, and prices are under pressure [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are falling due to high inventory and upcoming rainy seasons. Soda ash prices are also falling, with inventory pressure and expected supply increase [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - The planned domestic asphalt production in May 2025 is 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 31.6994%, a decrease of 3.30 percentage points. Sample enterprise output is 529,000 tons, a decrease of 9.41%. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.8%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.332%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 31%, an increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 36.8%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit is 0.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7. The profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased by 48.58%. Crude oil has weakened, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [7]. - Inventory - Social inventory is 1.346 million tons, a decrease of 2.53%; factory inventory is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 5.27%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 17,000 tons, an increase of 54.55%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing [7]. - Market Outlook - The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3455 - 3507 in the short term. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high price of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand [7][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Analysis** - In May 2025, the planned asphalt production increased, but the capacity utilization rate decreased this week. Sample enterprise output decreased, and refineries reduced production to relieve supply pressure, with potential pressure increase next week [7]. - **Demand Analysis** - The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [7]. - **Cost Analysis** - Crude oil weakened, and the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken in the short term. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference with delayed coking increased [7]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port diluted asphalt inventory is increasing [7]. - **Market Outlook** - The market is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, affected by positive factors such as relatively high crude oil prices and negative factors like weak demand [7][9][10]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Overview** - Presented data on various contracts' prices, inventory,开工率, etc. For example, the prices of different contracts showed different trends, and inventory and开工率 data also changed significantly [14]. - **Price and Spread Analysis** - Included the analysis of basis,主力合约价差, asphalt - crude oil price spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil. These data reflect the relative price relationships in the market [16][19][22][29]. - **Profit Analysis** - Analyzed asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, showing the profitability of asphalt production [36][39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - Covered aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume,开工率, and maintenance loss on the supply side. These data reflect the production and supply capacity of asphalt [42][44][47]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, reflecting the inventory status of asphalt [63][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis** - Presented the trends of asphalt export and import, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [74][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, downstream machinery demand, and asphalt开工率), reflecting the demand situation of asphalt [80][83][86]. - **Supply - Demand Balance** - Provided a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [106].

2025年05月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随下跌 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：弱预期与镍矿消息共振施压 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈导致减产边际增加，深跌具有难度 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随下跌 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Neutral: Asphalt, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Urea, LPG [29][45][47][64][80] - Weakly Bearish: Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Methanol, PVC, Styrene, Soda Ash [13][17][33][38][51][55][85][65][69] - Bullish: Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [89] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical commodities. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as supply - demand dynamics, production costs, and international trade policies on commodity prices [5][7][9]. - For some commodities like PX, PTA, and MEG, the report suggests spread trading strategies based on the changes in polyester production and market supply - demand [5][9][11]. - For other commodities, it analyzes the market conditions from multiple aspects, including inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and price differentials [14][20][33]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Long PX and short PTA. Although the polyester production cut may put pressure on PX demand, cost support from rising oil prices and tight supply - demand keep the long - short strategy valid [4][5][9]. - **PTA**: Polyester production cut leads to the strategy of long PX and short PTA. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and its processing fee compression position should be held [5][9][10]. - **MEG**: Short MEG unilaterally and long PTA short MEG. The reduction in polyester production reduces MEG demand, and the increase in coal - based MEG production capacity may lead to supply growth [5][11][12]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as inventory changes and the decline in the butadiene market affect its price trend [13][14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a weak operation state. The decline in the butadiene price and the pessimistic market sentiment on the demand side lead to the weak performance of synthetic rubber [17][19]. Asphalt - It follows the crude oil to oscillate within a range. The changes in production capacity utilization, inventory, and shipment volume affect the asphalt market [20][29][32]. LLDPE - It is running weakly. The increase in new production capacity, weak demand, and falling costs put pressure on the LLDPE price [33][34][35]. PP - The price is slightly falling, and the trading volume is average. The weak performance of the PP futures and the lack of downstream orders lead to the weak market [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It is in an oscillating market. The downstream replenishment in May supports the market, but the sustainability of inventory accumulation is a key factor. The supply and cost also affect the market trend [41][42][43]. Pulp - It is oscillating. The changes in futures prices, spot prices, and inventory levels affect the pulp market [46][47][48]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The market demand is average, and the glass factory has a large inventory removal pressure [51][52][53]. Methanol - It is in a weak operation. The weak terminal demand, inventory accumulation, and the return of production capacity in June lead to the weak market [55][58][59]. Urea - It is oscillating. The weak domestic demand and the support from exports lead to the oscillating state. The inventory changes and export policies affect the price [61][62][64]. Styrene - It is oscillating in the short term. The downstream replenishment, high profit - induced supply return, and changes in port basis affect the styrene market [65][66][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is tepid, leading to the weak - stable market [69][70][71]. LPG - It is oscillating in the short term. The changes in production capacity utilization and market supply - demand affect the LPG market [73][75][80]. PVC - It is running weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export and domestic demand are not strong [85][86][88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a daily rebound and a large overnight jump. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [89]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is oscillating at a high level, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be held. The changes in freight rates and market sentiment affect the index [91][92].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：聚酯加大减产力度，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：单边逢高空，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | 4393 | 6430 | 3530 | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicates a bullish drive but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (suggests a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (shows a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ (indicates a bullish drive but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (shows a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - The market conditions of different soft commodities vary, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and international market trends. The overall market presents a complex situation, and for most commodities, the current recommended operation is to wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, with general trading of domestic cotton spot and firm mainstream basis. The trading volume of pure - cotton yarn decreased, and the inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly. In April 2025, domestic cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative imports were 866,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. As of May 15, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a decrease of 318,600 tons from the end of April. If Sino - US negotiations continue to improve, the expectation of tight inventory at the end of the season will increase. It is recommended to wait and see or try the bull - spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In May, rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased, which was conducive to sugarcane acquisition, and the output of sugarcane and sugar was expected to rise significantly. Most international consulting firms expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season to remain high. Zhengzhou sugar also oscillated. Due to the continuous decline of US sugar, the profit of sugar imports increased, and the import volume was expected to increase. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar production was good this year, which was beneficial to sugar prices. In the first quarter, the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, which was also beneficial to the supply side. However, the downward trend of US sugar limited the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price rebounded, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. In Shandong, the market shipment was slow, and merchants' purchases were cautious. The shipment speed in the wholesale market slowed down significantly. The rising temperature across the country and the listing of seasonal fruits reduced the demand for apples. The market's trading focus shifted to the output estimate of the new season. The western producing areas were affected by high temperature and strong winds during the flowering period, which might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality. However, the overall flower quantity was sufficient, and there were great differences in the output estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, rubber RU&WRBBR fell sharply, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber and butadiene rubber decreased. The supply of global natural rubber entered the increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad were fully tapped. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week, and some plants were under maintenance or running at reduced loads. The domestic tire operating rate declined slightly, the domestic market consumption was slow, the export market slowed down, and the tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 614,500 tons, the inventory in the bonded area decreased while the general trade inventory increased. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 14,400 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene decreased to 28,200 tons. It is recommended to be cautious with NR and wait and see with RU&BR [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices rose. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen was 5,320 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was 4,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.157 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. The current domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and the demand for pulp was still weak. The pulp import in April decreased month - on - month, and it was expected to continue to decline in May and June. The pulp valuation was low. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long lightly at low prices [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of radiata pine decreased continuously, and foreign merchants' willingness to produce increased. After the continuous decline of foreign merchants' quotes, domestic traders were more active in taking delivery, and the domestic arrival volume increased last week. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of imports decreased to about 60,000 cubic meters. The port log inventory continued to decrease, but the main varieties for inventory reduction were North American timber and spruce, while radiata pine continued to accumulate inventory. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs would remain low, which was beneficial to the supply side. However, the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the price rebound power was insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 点评 27 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 35290 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.16%，持 仓增仓 2449 手至 80800 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 1210 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7440 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.63%，持仓 增仓 20995 手至 22.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9125 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 27 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7950 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 420 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤电极不断下移，西北及西南硅厂均开启 复产阶段，工业硅仍未见底部。5 月多晶硅商议减产额度未达一致，企业 在高库存压力下自行减负，但库存未见去化。丰水期新增预期少但减量有 限，需求和成本坍塌后晶硅承压加剧。近期出现大量仓单补充，淡化此前 挤仓逻辑，晶硅或转向流畅下行节奏。近月供给边际与工业硅出现分歧， 仍可考虑多 PS 空 SI 价差策略。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...