交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月16日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.9166%，环比增加0.779个百分点，全国 样本企业出货26.12万吨，环比增加10.91%,样本企业产量为56.6万吨，环比增加2.35%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为58.2万吨，环比减少2.51%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为32.7%，环比增加0.03个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 16 日 铝：淡季承压 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：开工率下行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20430 | 15 | -95 | 360 | -275 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20390 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2583 | -14 | 6 | 132 | -25 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 103595 | -105046 | =5988 | -10141 | -35696 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 205194 | -17295 | -49532 | 23736 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, with supply and demand both weak and no obvious contradictions, tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will move in a range in the short term [1]. - For the zinc market, although there is strong bullish sentiment in the market, the supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation is emerging. Fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that zinc prices will be weak in a range in the short term, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,005 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.91% [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,085 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,732.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.08, down 0.74% [1]. 3.2 Inventory and Position - **Lead**: LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,768 tons, up 6.60%; the futures active contract trading volume was 33,602 hands, up 6.48%; the futures active contract open interest was 52,667 hands, up 0.43%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.64, up 6.03% [1]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 11,184 tons, up 21.95%; the futures active contract trading volume was 119,038 hands, down 12.56%; the futures active contract open interest was 84,304 hands, down 10.48%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.41, down 2.32% [1]. 3.3 Industry News - A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a 15 - day regular maintenance in August, expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production, and plans to add 20,000 tons of new capacity in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year [1]. - On July 14, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 32.78 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 144,891 hands, a decrease of 1,790 hands; the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 5.61 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 194,167 hands, an increase of 1,614 hands [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply. Refineries are facing cost issues and reduced production. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The impact of raw material shortages on production is weakening, and production is expected to increase. Although downstream purchasing increased slightly when zinc prices fell, overall demand remains weak [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Demand negative feedback, unilateral trend is weak [1] - PTA: In the off - season of demand, unilateral trend is weak [1] - MEG: Low inventory, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Supply remains tight, don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [9] - PTA: Uncertainty about the start - up progress of Sanfangxiang and Yisheng's production cut. Don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA on the 01 contract [9] - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plant start - up rates decline, single - side shows a strong - biased oscillatory market, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On July 15, the price of PX fell. The estimated price was 838 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars from the 14th. Asian crude oil futures declined. The demand slump of Asian polyester chains pressured upstream PX. Petronas plans to shut down its 550,000 - ton/year PX plant from mid - August for about a month [3][5] - PTA: On July 15, the spot price of PTA dropped to 4715 yuan/ton [5] - MEG: On July 15, the average spot price was 4408 yuan/ton. The planned arrival at major ports from July 14 - 20 was about 45,000 tons [6] - Polyester: On July 15, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 49% [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8] Views and Suggestions - PX: The market focuses on Sanfangxiang's start - up progress. Supply is tight, don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [9] - PTA: The market focuses on whether Sanfangxiang's start - up will be postponed and whether Yisheng will increase production cuts. Don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA on the 01 contract [9] - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plant start - up rates decline. Supply increases while demand decreases, but inventory is low. Go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread when the spread is low [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - The international soybean market is generally characterized by a relatively loose supply - demand balance. The US soybean market may still face pressure, while the situation of Brazil and Argentina also has an impact on the market. The domestic soybean market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying at the bottom, maintaining short - term oscillations. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - The palm oil market is in a stage of production and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil market is in a phased inventory accumulation. The rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support on the futures market. Overall, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak. [20] - The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] Summary by Categories Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1012.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.21% to $279 per short ton. [2] - **相关资讯**: As of July 10, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 147,045 tons. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. The US soybean meal export sales reached 2 million tons as of July 3. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. [2][3] - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has a loose supply - demand balance. The domestic market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, buy in small quantities at low points; for arbitrage, conduct M91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [7] Sugar - **外盘情况**: The ICE US sugar futures dropped 1.57% to 16.31 cents per pound. [8] - **重要资讯**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose, and the demand in the peak season led to inventory reduction. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons. In the 2024/2025 season, Yunnan's sugar production increased significantly. [9][10][11] - **逻辑分析**: The raw sugar market is weak but may oscillate. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - **持仓建议**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options. [13][14] Oil - **外盘情况**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil futures changed by 0.02% to 53.95 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil futures changed by - 0.09% to 4,228 ringgit per ton. [16] - **相关资讯**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60%, and the total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6%. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. As of July 11, the domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased. [17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**: The palm oil market is in production and inventory accumulation. The domestic soybean oil market is in phased inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support. [20] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak, and it may oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: The CBOT corn futures rose, with the December contract up 2.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel. [25] - **重要资讯**: The CBOT corn futures rose due to bargain - hunting and short - covering. The US corn production is expected to be strong. Brazil's corn shipments decreased. The good - excellent rate of US corn was 74%. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable. [26] - **逻辑分析**: The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the December US corn futures will oscillate at the bottom, and the September contract should be observed; for arbitrage, close the long - corn and short - September - corn positions gradually; for options, those with spot can consider the high - selling strategy carefully. [28][29][30] Pig - **相关资讯**: The pig price oscillated. The prices of piglets and sows were stable. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.6%. [32] - **逻辑分析**: The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [33] Peanut - **重要资讯**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The arrival volume of an oil factory was 200 tons. The peanut oil price was stable, and the peanut meal sales were slow. As of July 10, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased. [35] - **逻辑分析**: The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, short the October contract at high prices and wait and see currently; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option. [37][39][40] Egg - **重要资讯**: The egg price in the main production and sales areas rose. The inventory of laying hens increased in June. The egg sales volume decreased. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit decreased. [42][43][44] - **交易逻辑**: The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [45] Apple - **重要资讯**: As of July 2, the apple cold - storage inventory was 993,100 tons. In May 2025, the apple import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased. The apple price in the origin was stable, and the sales were slow. [47] - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider buying low and selling high; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [50][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: The ICE US cotton futures rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound. [52] - **重要资讯**: As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%. As of July 3, the un - priced contracts of ICE cotton increased. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased slightly. [53][54][55] - **交易逻辑**: The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [57][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.54%. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness, but the low inventory limits industrial contradictions. With strong raw materials providing cost support and positive policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, focusing on policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil remained at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.31%. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil have both weakened, with a slight inventory build-up. However, positive policy expectations and strong raw materials lead to a high-level oscillating trend, and overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.13%. Optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 311.72 billion yuan, 2.3905 trillion yuan, and 3.90314 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. After deducting price factors, the growth rate was 5.3%. The investment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 48.16 billion yuan, 882.94 billion yuan, and 1.55543 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6.5%, 10.2%, and -1.1% [7]. - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,170 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,287 yuan respectively, with changes of -10 yuan, -10 yuan, and -4 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,200 yuan, and 3,308 yuan respectively, with changes of -20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 1 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 750 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 707 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,114 yuan, a decrease of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,439,493, an increase of 274,884, and the open interest was 2,153,852, an increase of 31,511 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,259 yuan, a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume was 496,158, an increase of 41,499, and the open interest was 1,566,776, a decrease of 13,515 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 767.0 yuan, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 325,980, an increase of 86,736, and the open interest was 668,688, an increase of 3,867 [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at 45 ports, as well as charts on steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability [13][18][27]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has decreased, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand remains weak, and the steel price is still under pressure in the off-season. However, low inventory, strong raw materials, and positive policy expectations will lead to an oscillating and stabilizing trend, focusing on policy implementation [36]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has declined, but the supply pressure remains high. Demand resilience has weakened, but downstream cold-rolled production provides support. With positive policy expectations and strong raw materials, it will maintain a high-level oscillating trend, guarding against overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have both weakened. Ore demand is declining, and the supply is also contracting. Optimistic sentiment supports the high price, but the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views PTA - In the short - term, PTA drivers are expected to be weak, and prices will follow cost fluctuations. In July, there are few PTA device overhauls, and the Sanfangxiang device is planned to be put into production. Meanwhile, it's the off - season for terminal demand, polyester sales are continuously weak, inventory pressure is accumulating, and there are also news of production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis stabilized. The factory inventory decreased slightly, but the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short with short positions decreasing [6]. MEG - In the short - term, the price of ethylene glycol will mainly undergo wide - range adjustments. The poor restart of some devices in Saudi Arabia has boosted market sentiment. In the long - term, the transferable spot in the ethylene glycol market will continue to be loose, with about 4 ships of South China goods shipped to East China this month. The inventory accumulation expectation for August - September is relatively clear, with an overall range of about 18 - 200,000 tons. As the inventory pressure of polyester products increases, the intention of subsequent factories to participate in raw material procurement will also weaken [7]. - On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol moderately strengthened, and the market trading was average. Affected by the poor restart of Saudi devices, the market quickly pulled up in the afternoon. The basis ran relatively stably, and the center of the outer market of ethylene glycol rose firmly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - PTA: Futures fluctuated and closed higher, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis stabilized. The price negotiation range of this week's goods was around 4705 - 4765, and the mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 8 [6]. - MEG: The price center moderately strengthened. In the morning, it weakened slightly, and the low - level spot was traded at around 4370 yuan/ton. Then, affected by the poor restart of Saudi devices, the market quickly pulled up. In the afternoon, it was sorted at a high level, and the basis ran relatively stably [7]. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental aspects: The market is neutral, with a neutral basis, slightly positive inventory, slightly negative on the disk, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Weak drivers in the short - term, prices follow cost fluctuations [5]. MEG - Fundamental aspects: The market is neutral, with a slightly positive basis, slightly positive inventory, slightly negative on the disk, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing [7][8]. - Expectation: Short - term wide - range adjustments, long - term inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Today's Focus There is no information provided regarding today's focus. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, PTA production capacity has increased, and production, supply, and demand have all shown certain fluctuations. For example, in July 2025, the production capacity was 91.72 million tons, the production was 6.39 million tons, and the total demand was 6.27 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 115,000 tons [12]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the overall operating rate and production of ethylene glycol have changed, and supply and demand have also fluctuated. For example, in July 2025, the total supply was 2.35 million tons, and the total consumption was 2.33 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 20,000 tons [13].

Market Overview - PX price rebounded today with Asian spot transactions at various prices, and it's supported by rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors. The current estimated price is 852 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars from last Friday [3]. - PTA futures closed up in a volatile market, with a weak spot market negotiation atmosphere and stable basis. The mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 8 [5]. - A 900,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore plans to shut down for maintenance in August, and several Saudi MEG plants have reduced loads or shut down [5][6]. - Textile and clothing exports from January - June 2025 showed different trends in RMB and USD terms. In June, exports showed mixed growth and decline compared to the same and previous periods [6]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, while in Fujian, sales were smooth due to rising futures prices [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral stance [7]. Views and Suggestions PX - The market focuses on the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. Supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing on the single side and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Pay attention to far - month PXN compression positions. The Asian PX operating rate is 73.6% (- 0.5%), and PTA load has increased. PX supply - demand is tight in July, and the monthly spread is expected to be strong. Aromatics are over - valued relative to oil products, and it's advisable to focus on far - month PXN compression [7]. PTA - The market focuses on whether the commissioning of Sanfangxiang will be delayed and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing on the single side and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Go long on PX and short on PTA, and long on PR and short on PTA in the 01 contract. PTA supply increases while demand decreases, polyester operating rate is declining, and there is pressure on PTA inventory accumulation. However, the downside of the single - side price is limited due to low raw material inventory in polyester factories, and processing fees are under pressure [8][9]. MEG - The shutdown of Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants may affect future imports. It's a bullish volatile market on the single side, and conduct positive spreads on the monthly spread. Supply increases while demand decreases, but inventory is low, and coal prices have rebounded. Pay attention to the restart of Yulin Energy Chemical. The monthly spread of ethylene glycol should be positively spread when the price is low [10]. Price and Data Futures | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Monthly Spread (Yesterday) | Monthly Spread (Change) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6778 | 6694 | 84 | 94 | 20 | | PTA Main | 4740 | 40 | 0.85% | 40 | 2 | | MEG Main | 4357 | 52 | 1.21% | - 12 | 14 | | PF Main | 6436 | 48 | 0.75% | 146 | 26 | | SC Main | 513 | - 0.9 | - 0.18% | 14.5 | 4.8 | [2] Spot | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | 850.33 | 836.67 | 13.66 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4735 | 4715 | 20 | | MEG Spot | 4405 | 4383 | 22 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 597 | 584.25 | 12.75 | | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | 71.45 | 72.63 | - 1.18 | [2] Spot Processing Fees | Spot Processing Fees | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 252.42 | 256.67 | - 4.25 | | PTA Processing Fee | 200.03 | 158.43 | 41.6 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 304.31 | 301.29 | 3.02 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | - 410.69 | - 453.71 | 43.02 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 7.42 | - 7.42 | 0 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to the enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, despite the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the steadily rising domestic coal futures prices compete with the weak methanol supply - demand structure [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the negative impact of production increases is digested, and the further expansion of production by oil - producing countries is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.36%, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79% as of July 10, a 1.66 - percentage - point increase, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a 0.42 - percentage - point decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons. The inventories in East and South China ports increased significantly week - on - week [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 7. As of the week of July 4, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels week - on - week. The WTI crude oil futures market net long positions decreased significantly week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures market net long positions increased significantly [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 14,360 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | -10 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,407 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 11 yuan/ton | -26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 482.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 513.0 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | -30.3 yuan/barrel | -8.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There is a chart of rubber basis [16]. - **Methanol**: Charts related to methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting are mentioned [29][31][33]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts related to crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change are mentioned [41][43][49].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木09合约偏空看待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-07-14 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木：原木期货价格震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 截止到6月29日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有38条，其中有30条去往中国大陆，8条去往中国台湾、韩国减载。6月出发的船只中，预计 6月到港的约为10条，7月到港的有28条。预计6月到货151万方。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 6月30日-7月6日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.69万方，较上周增加1.83%;其中，山东港口针叶原木日均出库量为3.9万方，较上周 增加9.86%;江苏港口针叶原木日均出库量为2.15万方，较上周减少3.15%。 | | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 截至7月4日，国内针 ...