Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, while treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting at high prices, tin is recommended for trading within a range, gold is recommended for building positions at low prices after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to fluctuate; soda ash is recommended for observation; and the outlook for soda ash is weakly fluctuating [1][20][28]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound with fluctuations, apples are expected to fluctuate, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][30]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs are expected to show a weak trend, corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][33][38]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures products based on factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, domestic policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit situations. It believes that Sino - US trade negotiations have a significant impact on the market, with short - term tariff easing exceeding expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. Different products have different trends due to their own supply - demand and cost characteristics, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations [5][20]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Sino - US trade situation improvement boosts the strong rebound of US stocks. The negotiation process exceeds expectations, and the index futures may fluctuate strongly. However, there are risks of callback after reaching the previous high [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade negotiations may reduce the pressure of export decline. The potential downward space of bond yields is limited, but there are still phased opportunities. Short - term attention should be paid to the fermentation of reverse trading [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price rebounds, and the market expectation improves due to Sino - US negotiations. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of deterioration, and the price is expected to fluctuate under the background of low valuation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply shows a slight decline, and the demand has limited upward space. Considering the approaching traditional off - season and other factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the coke market has no prominent short - term supply - demand contradictions, but there are adjustment pressures. Both are expected to fluctuate [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation eases, but the impact of the trade war on demand may gradually appear. The fundamentals support the price, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite increases, and the demand has a weakening expectation. It is recommended for observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an excess pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [14][15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: Sino - US trade negotiations reduce market risk aversion, but the tariff policy is expected to be repeated. Both are expected to fluctuate [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply has new investment plans. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to tariff progress [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient in the medium term, with limited demand growth [22]. - **Rubber**: The macro - good news boosts the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Urea**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [25][26]. - **Methanol**: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The decline is expected to slow down [26][27]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The short - term news has a certain boost, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [28]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [30]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation [30]. - **PTA**: The cost collapses, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the support at 4200 [32]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply increases and is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [33][34]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may be supported, but the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [34]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is expected to be weak. The long - term cost increases, and the price is expected to be strong. Different strategies are recommended for different periods [37]. - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The long - term trend is expected to decline first and then rebound [38][43].

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for the first 90 days[2] - After the suspension, the average tariff rate imposed by the US on China will be 51%, which is higher than the average non-MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff rate of 42%[2][16] - The negotiations indicate a willingness to communicate, moving from an irrational tariff level to a more rational one, suggesting the start of substantive trade discussions[3][18] Group 2: Impact on Trade and Exports - During the 90-day suspension period, China's export growth to the US may decline by 21.6% to 27.6%[4][21] - In April, China's export growth to the US was -21.03%, indicating that further deterioration is unlikely within the year[4][21] - High price elasticity industries, such as optical and medical instruments, are more sensitive to tariff changes, with significant impacts expected from tariff adjustments[5][23] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The positive outcome of the trade talks is expected to enhance market risk appetite and support domestic economic improvement[6][24] - The Chinese government is adopting a more proactive policy stance, which may lead to accelerated implementation of existing policies in the second quarter[6][24] - Future negotiations may still face uncertainties, reflecting the historical behavior of the Trump administration regarding trade policies[3][26]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry Group 2 - After the Sino-US trade talks in Geneva reached a temporary agreement and significantly reduced tariffs, the market's risk appetite increased, and the safe-haven sentiment declined, leading to a full decline in national bonds and national bond futures. Investors expect the easing of Sino-US relations to help stabilize the global economy, reducing the urgency for loose monetary policies. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stock market and the pressure of capital outflow from the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased, and the price of bond futures decreased. Overall, the short-term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the temporary convergence of macro risk premiums [2] Group 3 Unilateral strategy - The repo rate declined, and the price of national bond futures fluctuated. The 2506 contract was neutral [3] Arbitrage strategy - Focus on the widening of the basis [3] Hedging strategy - There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short sellers can moderately hedge using far-month contracts [3] Group 4 Interest rate pricing tracking indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.70%. The social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 5.67 trillion yuan and a month-on-month increase rate of 1.36%. The M2 year-on-year growth rate was 7.00%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.50% and a month-on-month decrease rate of 2.97%. The US dollar index was 101.79, with a day-on-day increase of 1.38 and a day-on-day increase rate of 1.37%. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.2246, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.026 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -0.35%. The SHIBOR 7-day rate was 1.50%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.02 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -1.51%. The DR007 rate was 1.50%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.04 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -2.87%. The R007 rate was 1.76%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.21 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -10.82%. The 3M yield of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA) was 1.62%, with a day-on-day increase of 0.01 and a day-on-day increase rate of 0.62%. The AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.12%, with a day-on-day increase of 0.00 and a day-on-day increase rate of 0.62% [8] Group 5 National bonds and national bond futures market overview - The report includes multiple charts related to the national bond futures market, such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of national bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of national bond futures, the maturity yield trend of national bonds with various maturities, the one-day valuation change of national bonds with various maturities, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of national bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of national bond futures, etc. [13][15][17] Group 6 Money market capital situation - The report includes multiple charts related to the money market, such as the trading volume and position ratio of each variety of national bond futures, the bond lending turnover and total position volume of national bond futures, the spread between national development bonds and national bonds, the issuance of national bonds, etc. [27][23][25] Group 7 Spread situation - The report includes multiple charts related to spreads, such as the inter-period spread trend of each variety of national bond futures, the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross-variety spreads, etc. [37][41][42] Group 8 Two-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to two-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TS main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TS main contract, etc. [44][47] Group 9 Five-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to five-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TF main contract, the three-year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [54][57] Group 10 Ten-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to ten-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the T main contract, the three-year basis trend of the T main contract, etc. [66][68] Group 11 Thirty-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to thirty-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TL main contract, the three-year basis trend of the TL main contract, etc. [73][78]

国内市场综述 高开高走 震荡攀升 周一（5 月 12 日）大盘高开高走，震荡攀升。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3369.24 点，上涨 0.82%；深成指 收于 10301.16 点，上涨 1.72%；科创 50 上涨 0.49%； 创业板指上涨 2.63%，万得全 A 成交额共 13409 亿元， 较前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 26 个行业收涨，其 中国防军工、机械、电力设备及新能源涨幅较大，而 农林牧渔、医药、电力设备及新能源则跌幅居前。概 念方面，中船系、航母及大飞机等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指大幅收涨，亚马逊涨超 8% 周一（5 月 12 日），美国三大股指大幅收涨，道指涨 2.81%，标普 500 指数涨 3.26%，纳指涨 4.35%。亚马 逊涨超 8%，耐克涨逾 7%，领涨道指。万得美国科技七 巨头指数涨 5.4%，脸书涨近 8%，特斯拉涨超 6%。中 概股普遍上涨，文远知行涨超 27%，世纪互联涨逾 21%。 新闻精要 风险提示 1.稳增长力度不及预期； 2.地缘冲突升级。 分析师：彭竑/钟哲元 登记编码：S1490520090001/ S14905230 ...

Market Performance - The shipping index continued its strong performance, rising over 11% during the morning session [1] - The main shipping contract saw a significant increase, reaching a peak of 1548 points, following a previous day of limit-up trading [6] - Chemical products such as styrene and synthetic rubber also experienced gains, with increases of over 2% [1] Commodity Inventory - Domestic commercial inventory of three major oils reached 1.82 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 40,000 tons [3] - The inventory of soybean and soybean meal also saw a slight increase, with major oil factories reporting a soybean inventory of 5.89 million tons, up 660,000 tons week-on-week [4] Industry Developments - The photovoltaic silicon material sector saw a significant rise, with rumors of major manufacturers proposing production cuts to stabilize prices [3] - There is speculation that leading silicon material manufacturers are planning to acquire remaining production capacity, although the feasibility of these plans remains uncertain [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. budget surplus for April was reported at $258.4 billion, an increase from $209.5 billion year-on-year, with customs tariff revenue reaching a historic high [8] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the T2506 contract dropping by 0.49% and a decrease in open interest. There were arbitrage opportunities due to the relatively high IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts. Short - term market interest rates generally decreased, and key - term Treasury bond yields showed mixed changes. With the substantial progress in Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined with the possibility of increased short - term volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally fell. For example, the T2506 contract dropped 0.49%, and the open interest of some contracts decreased while others increased. The trading volume also varied among different contracts [2]. - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of some contracts changed. For instance, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 was - 0.216, compared to the previous value of - 0.192 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2.82bp to 1.66%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 18.22bp [2]. - **Overseas Yields**: US 10Y, German 10Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields all increased, by 8bp, 4bp, and 3.5bp respectively [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 12, the central bank conducted 430 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 430 billion yuan [3]. - **Sino - US Talks**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement. Both sides agreed to adjust tariffs and take measures to ease trade tensions [3]. - **Automobile Industry**: In April, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [3]. - **Japanese Bond Market**: The yield of Japanese 30 - year Treasury bonds reached a nearly 25 - year high, and the demand for Japanese 10 - year bond sales was weak [3]. - **US Pharmaceutical Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order to lower drug prices, but analysts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rates**: Money market interest rates mostly declined, and US Treasury bond yields collectively increased [3]. Comments and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally fell. The central bank's open - market operations provided liquidity, and the market risk appetite increased due to the Sino - US talks. The prices of Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term volatility may increase [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for stock index: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [2] - Investment rating for treasury bonds: Bullish in the short term [3] Group 2: Core Views - For stock index: The easing of Sino-US trade tensions has boosted a strong rebound in US stocks. Traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates only twice this year, and Goldman Sachs has postponed its Fed rate cut expectation from July to December. The Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement was released, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that China and the US have cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The Sino - US negotiation process has exceeded expectations, and the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward bias. However, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to the level before the implementation of tariffs, and there is still pressure from additional tariffs in the current fundamentals, as well as the expected disturbance of Trump's changing attitude. When the market sentiment is high, attention should be paid to the possible callback risk after reaching the previous high [1] - For treasury bonds: Considering the relatively high density and intensity of recent domestic policy introductions, the market's expectations for the number and cumulative amplitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will also decline to some extent, and the potential downward space for bond yields is relatively limited. The low - odds situation in the bond market will not improve significantly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the development of reverse trading and patiently wait for the market to gradually stabilize from the high - volatility environment [2] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.23%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.77%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.48%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.56% [4] - Treasury bonds: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.46%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.20%, the 30 - year main contract fell 1.31%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.08% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward bias [5] - Treasury bonds: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight downward bias [7] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3853.00 | 1.23 | 61843 | 152926 | | 2025/05/12 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2686.60 | 0.77 | 31684 | 50672 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5688.00 | 1.48 | 52449 | 101404 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6037.00 | 1.56 | 134023 | 170704 | | 2025/05/12 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.46 | 110974 | 160433 | | 2025/05/12 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.89 | - 0.20 | 77590 | 129518 | | 2025/05/12 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.74 | - 1.31 | 122849 | 71751 | | 2025/05/12 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.28 | - 0.08 | 48586 | 74392 | [9]

关税政策转机，市场情绪转好 钢材：关税政策转机，市场情绪转好 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3082元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3220元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，全 国库存为814.09万吨，环比上周减少1.21%。其中，钢材库存环比减少4.08%，热卷环比增加3.23%。昨日钢材现货 成交整体一般偏好，市场整体情绪好转，投机成交有所恢复。 综合来看：热卷：目前板材基本维持高产量，高消费，低库存，尤其在国内低价优势下，出口韧性较强。螺纹： 近期建材产销存数据表现不佳，由于目前短流程持续亏损，建材产量受到边际抑制，建材消费仍处于传统旺季， 整体库存保持低位，后期去库空间有限。昨日成材受关税政策缓和影响，市场情绪高涨，价格上涨。 策略 单边：震荡，关注情绪改善下的贴水修复 黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-13 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：中美谈判超预期，铁矿石大幅上涨 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格大幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于718.5/吨，涨幅3.16%。现货方面，主流 品种价格 ...

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 期货研究院 黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略 摘要 【重要资讯】 黑色建材团队 1.当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明》：美国对中国商品征收关税降低至30%，中国对美国商品 征收关税降低至10%。 2.日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税 的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国 进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解 关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日本消费税税率表示谨慎 。 3.5月11日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称 ，"虽然没有进行讨论，但我将大幅增加与印度和巴基斯坦的贸易 往来"。 4.中汽协：今年1至4月份，我国汽车产销量分别完成1017.5万辆和 1006万辆，同比分别增 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】在中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，全球市场反应积极，周一美国银行板块走强，美银等四大行涨幅均超3%，标普 银行ETF收复特朗普公布"对等关税"决定以来所有失地。亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预测，二季度美国GDP增速有望回升至2.3%，华尔街看好美 国经济前景，摩根大通认为衰退概率明显下降。上月摩根大通因特朗普激进关税立场将衰退可能性提高到60%，如今关税降级等使跨资产机遇增 多。 资产管理公司BK asset management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格表示，经贸谈判将降低进口商品关税、扩大出口市场准入，经济下行风险降低，美联储 宽松程度或低于此前猜测，出口回升将支持二季度GDP增长。周二美国将公布最新CPI数据，市场预计4月通胀月率或阶段性反弹。富国银行认为 贸易变化不会伴随对消费者需求的积极冲击，家庭支出压力增加等因素有助于缓解与关税相关的通胀。花旗银行认为中美经贸会谈降低商品短缺 和通胀加剧风险，美联储可更耐心，将下一次降息预测时间从六月推迟至七月。 此外，尽管经贸进展降低美国经济硬着陆可能性，但预计不会阻碍特朗普继续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压。（陈十一） 然而，降息前景却因经贸进展生变 ...