投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 风险偏好持续回落，股指商品多数回调 ——中信期货晨报20251121 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 立 Fran - 7 / 可 / 可 / 人 / 用 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | 日度涨跌幅 周皮涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 | | 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4539.2 | -0.57% | -1.33% | -1.99% | -1 76 86 | 15.77% | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3002.6 | -0.28% | -0.92% | -0.42% | 0.46% | 12 124 | | | 中正500期货 | 7000 | -0.78% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and announced to end balance - sheet reduction in December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability [6]. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" set the tone of "scientific and technological self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" [6]. - Asset viewpoints: With policy announcements, market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation strategy. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong, black commodities have short - term rebound opportunities, bonds are in a slightly strong oscillation pattern, and precious metals have medium - to - long - term allocation value [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's interest rate cut and end of balance - sheet reduction aim to manage risks during the economic data vacuum period, balancing growth and liquidity stability [6]. - Domestic: Policy support has strengthened, and the economy has continued to stabilize. Although the manufacturing PMI declined in October, the construction and service industries remained in expansion [6]. - Asset allocation: Policy announcements have improved market sentiment. In the short term, stock indices may oscillate, but in the medium term, the equity market has upward momentum. A balanced allocation strategy is recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Financial - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory upward movement [7]. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - Gold/silver: Due to geopolitical and trade easing, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is no upward driving force, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamentals provide limited support, and the market is weak, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and prices are falling, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Coke: After three rounds of price increases, the market is under pressure and oscillating [7]. - Coking coal: Supply remains tight, and the futures and spot markets have diverged, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Glass: Supply is expected to be disrupted, and the market is expected to oscillate [7]. - Soda ash: Spot prices are low, and some manufacturers are under maintenance, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Due to renewed trade frictions, copper prices have declined in the short term, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Aluminum: Inventory has decreased, and prices are oscillating upward, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory upward movement [7]. - Zinc: Inventory is expected to be excessive, and prices are oscillating weakly, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and prices are oscillating weakly, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts have continued to decline, and the market has rebounded slightly, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Tin: Supply constraints remain, and prices are oscillating, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Industrial silicon: Supply is abundant, and prices are oscillating in the short term, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts have continuously declined, and prices have strengthened slightly, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks remain, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - LPG: Supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Asphalt: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, asphalt futures prices are difficult to support, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: With the weakening of crude oil, fuel oil futures prices are weak, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the weak oscillation of crude oil, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Methanol: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Urea: High inventory pressure and cost support coexist, with a short - term forecast of narrow - range oscillation [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Cost and fundamentals are in a downward resonance, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - PX: Supply has not decreased, and profits are supported, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - PTA: Market sentiment is cautious, and short - term profits are supported, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Short - fiber: Downstream factories are digesting previous stocks, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Bottle chips: Affected by cost and limited supply - demand drivers, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Propylene: Downstream trading has improved limitedly, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - PP: Cost support still exists, with a short - term forecast of oscillation within a range [9]. - Plastic: Short - term maintenance has decreased, with a short - term forecast of oscillation within a range [9]. - Styrene: There are still concerns about over - inventory, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - PVC: Market sentiment has cooled, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Caustic soda: Supply - demand is under pressure, and cost has increased, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. Agriculture - Fats and oils: The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia is strong, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Protein meal: The crushing profit has continued to repair, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Corn/starch: Downstream orders support port prices, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Live pigs: Supply - demand is loose, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Natural rubber: The market is oscillating and adjusting, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Synthetic rubber: It has rebounded from the bottom, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Cotton: The short - term upward momentum has weakened, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Sugar: The general direction is to maintain a short - position operation, with a short - term forecast of oscillatory decline [9]. - Pulp: The strong trend has paused, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Double - gum paper: Spot prices are stable, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9]. - Logs: Spot prices are stable, with a short - term forecast of oscillation [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The October FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp and will stop quantitative tightening on December 1st, in line with market expectations. There are differences within the Fed on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was somewhat hawkish, emphasizing a "data-dependent" approach and "risk neutrality" [7]. - Domestic macro: On October 28th, the "Proposal" and "Explanation" related to the 15th Five - Year Plan were released, enhancing the strategic status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit on October 30th was positive, with many consensuses on economic and trade consultations [7]. - Asset view: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. With the implementation of interest rate cuts, progress in Sino - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, it is expected to benefit equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities also have a chance to rebound, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates in October and will stop quantitative tightening. There are internal differences on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was hawkish, emphasizing data dependence and risk neutrality [7]. - Domestic: The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan - related documents enhanced the status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit was positive, with many economic and trade consensuses [7]. - Asset: Short - term balanced allocation. Equity sectors, non - ferrous metals, and black commodities are expected to benefit, while precious metals may fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Technology events catalyze the active growth style, with small and micro - cap funds being crowded. Short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and economic and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals. Concerns include the US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: There are continuous policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Iron Ore: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and emotional disturbances are more obvious. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coke: The start - up rate continues to decline, and price increases are about to be implemented. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coking Coal: There are continuous supply disturbances, and coal prices are relatively strong. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Other: For other products in this sector, such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with corresponding concerns for each product [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with different concerns for each metal, such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [8]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - For most products in this sector, such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile or volatile downward, with concerns including supply and demand, policy, and price fluctuations of related raw materials [10]. 3.8 Agriculture - For various agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock products, the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with concerns including weather, supply and demand, and policy [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs; silver is likely to experience a pull - back after a rally as spot contradictions ease [2][5]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to increasing domestic inventories [2][9]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state [2][12]. - Lead price rebounds are restricted by increasing inventories [2][15]. - The price trend of tin is subject to macro - economic influences [2][17]. - Aluminum is in a consolidation phase; alumina's profit margins are being compressed; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level as macro - sentiment turns bearish; stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost at the bottom limiting downward flexibility [2][24]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to continue its short - term range - bound movement with a firm spot performance [2][27]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend; polysilicon's futures are showing strength and investors should focus on the content of today's meeting [2][31][32]. - Iron ore is in a wide - range oscillation [2][36]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices may experience a slight correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][39]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations with cost providing bottom support [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations with expectations fluctuating [2][47][48]. - Log prices are oscillating repeatedly [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Data**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 960.34 with a daily increase of 2.27%, and the night - session closing price was 962.08 with a night - session increase of 1.39%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 11966 with a daily increase of 3.76%, and the night - session closing price was 12138.00 with a night - session increase of 3.97% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Gold ETF holdings increased by 1 to 1,022.60, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 310 to 15,422.61. SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,916 to 75,099 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 64,360 to 39,660,680 troy ounces. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32,643 to 1,030,429 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 4,559,793 to 515,632,550 troy ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. China's September CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3% [5][8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85260 with a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The closing price of LME copper 3M was 10,576 with a daily decrease of 0.08% [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 8,236 to 44,531 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, China's macro - economic data showed positive trends. In the industry, the investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months, and Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's copper ore imports in September were 258.7 million tons, and imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 48.5 million tons [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22015, down 0.92%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M was 2949, down 2.09% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7172 to 65666 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 to 38350 tons [12]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary signaled a relaxation, and both sides' working levels maintained communication. China restated its stance on the tariff war [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17110, up 0.35%; the closing price of LME lead 3M was 1977, down 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE lead inventory increased by 1302 to 32007 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 8225 to 254775 tons [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, China's macro - economic data and the US economic situation from the Fed's Beige Book were reported [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 281,710, up 0.46%; the closing price of LME tin 3M was 35,380, up 0.31% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE tin inventory increased by 50 to 5,677 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 190 to 2,575 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The same set of macro - economic news about China and the US was reported [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20910, and the closing price of LME aluminum 3M was 2745. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2797, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20410 [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 64.20 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.90 million tons [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's CPI and PPI data showed positive trends, and new social financing and loan data were also released [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121,180, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560 [24]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining company's over 148 - hectare mining area was taken over; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; some Indonesian mining companies were sanctioned; new regulations on mining plans were issued; and Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China [24][25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,720, and the closing price of the 2601 contract was 72,940 [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. The government issued an action plan for the "three - year doubling" of electric vehicle charging facilities, and China's power battery production, sales, and exports showed growth [29][30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,865 [32]. - **Inventory Changes**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 54.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.0 million tons [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The results of Xinjiang's 2025 incremental new - energy project mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [32]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 776.5 with a daily decrease of 0.70% [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [37]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 with a daily decrease of 0.85%, and the closing price of HC2601 was 3,212 with a daily decrease of 0.86% [39]. - **Industry News**: In early October, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and steel export and import data in August were also reported [39][41]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5376, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5746 [44]. - **Industry News**: Market quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were released, and a large steel mill's tender inquiries for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were reported [44]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1151 with a daily decrease of 0.2%, and the closing price of J2601 was 1642 with a daily decrease of 0.8% [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [49]. Log - The price of logs is oscillating repeatedly, but no detailed price or trading data are provided [2][50].

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted the significant role of private enterprises in China's foreign trade, showcasing their resilience and growth amidst external challenges [1][2] Group 1: Import and Export Performance - In the first three quarters, private enterprises achieved an import and export volume of 19.16 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with exports and imports growing by 8.8% and 5.9% respectively [1] - Private enterprises have maintained a continuous year-on-year growth in import and export for 22 consecutive quarters, contributing 4.3 percentage points to China's overall foreign trade growth [1] - The share of private enterprises in China's total foreign trade value reached 57%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, solidifying their position as the largest foreign trade entity in the country [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - Private enterprises have expanded their market reach, with import and export growth rates surpassing the overall level in over 180 countries and regions [2] - Notable export growth was observed in emerging markets, with increases of 14% to ASEAN, 27.3% to Africa, and 11.8% to Central Asia, while traditional markets like the EU and Japan also saw growth exceeding the overall rate [2] - Private enterprises have actively engaged with overseas clients, marking new export initiatives such as fresh pomelo to New Zealand and soup dumplings to Honduras, thereby diversifying the export of unique agricultural products and traditional foods [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The innovation capabilities of private enterprises have surged, with high-tech product exports increasing by 15.3%, accounting for 54.2% of the total export value of similar products, a rise of 1.6 percentage points [2] - Approximately 80% of high-end machine tools, over 70% of lithium batteries, and nearly 60% of medical devices exported from China are produced by private enterprises [2] - The diverse range of products exported by private enterprises spans from super tankers to handheld devices, indicating their significant contribution to various sectors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive table of the basis rate statistics for various futures contracts, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial instruments. It details the basis rate, changes compared to the previous day, and basis values for different contract months, along with corresponding spot prices and their sources [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.42%, with a spot price of 82,505 and a current - month basis of 425 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is - 0.05%, spot price is 20,770, and current - month basis is 5 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is - 0.43%, spot price is 21,870, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Lead (PB): Basis rate is - 0.94%, spot price is 16,950, and current - month basis is - 120 [4]. - Tin (TI): Basis rate is 0.20%, spot price is 273,700, and current - month basis is 550 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 1.08%, spot price is 124,050, and current - month basis is 1660 [4]. - Industrial Silicon (TI): Basis rate is 5.20%, spot price is 9500, and current - month basis is 480 [4]. - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.32%, spot price is 851.99, and current - month basis is 0.25 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 10,353, and current - month basis is - 17 [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Coke: Basis rate is - 6.98%, spot price is 1637, and current - month basis is - 122.8 [4]. -动力煤 (ZC): For Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal, basis rate is 1178% (data seems abnormal), spot price is 1270, and current - month basis is 35.5; for Shanxi Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao Port, basis rate is - 0.25%, spot price is 707, and current - month basis is - 94.4 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 7.88%, spot price is 5330, and current - month basis is - 406 [4]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): Basis rate is 1.04%, spot price is 6000, and current - month basis is 62 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is 1.31%, spot price is 13,100, and current - month basis is 70 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is - 4.72%, spot price is 1210, and current - month basis is - 60 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is - 3.54%, spot price is 2273, and current - month basis is - 84 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.39%, spot price is 4305, and current - month basis is 130 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is - 1.45%, spot price is 4610, and current - month basis is - 68 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 2.20%, spot price is 7050, and current - month basis is 152 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is - 0.26%, spot price is 6940, and current - month basis is - 50 [4]. - Short - fiber: Basis rate is 1.38%, spot price is 6460, and current - month basis is 6 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is 1.55%, spot price is 7280, and current - month basis is 111 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 9.52%, spot price is 5405, and current - month basis is 470 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 4.62%, spot price is 14,850, and current - month basis is - 720 [4]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 7.19%, spot price is 13,324, and current - month basis is 849 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 6.84%, spot price is 1225, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is - 3.82%, spot price is 1610, and current - month basis is - 64 [4]. - Paper Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 13.14%, spot price is 5725, and current - month basis is 411 [4]. - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 4.02%, spot price is 470.9, and current - month basis is - 20.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 8.59%, spot price is 3135, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 1.74%, spot price is 3500, and current - month basis is 115 [4]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is - 0.7%, spot price is 3424, and current - month basis is - 7 [4]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (PG): Basis rate is 5.41%, spot price is 4498, and current - month basis is 219 [4]. Agricultural Products - Threaded Steel (RB): Basis rate is 4.20%, spot price is 3300, and current - month basis is 226 [4]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.85%, spot price is 3420, and current - month basis is 0 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.02%, spot price is 837.9, and current - month basis is 32.4 [4]. - Soybeans: Basis rate is 1.30%, spot price is 3980, and current - month basis is 66 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 2.25%, spot price is 2900, and current - month basis is - 67 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is 4.75%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 116 [4]. - Edible Oil: Basis rate is 3.03%, spot price is 8440, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): Basis rate is - 1.0%, spot price is 10,040, and current - month basis is - 102 [4]. - Peanuts (PK): Basis rate is 10.57%, spot price is 8600, and current - month basis is 830 [4]. - Palm Oil: Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 9170, and current - month basis is - 52 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 6.24%, spot price is 2300, and current - month basis is 167 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 3.48%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 19 [4]. - Apples (AP): Basis rate is - 7.65%, spot price is 7800, and current - month basis is - 847 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is 17.04%, spot price is 3600, and current - month basis is 228 [4]. - Live Pigs: Basis rate is - 1.05%, spot price is 12,550, and current - month basis is - 760 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 11.48%, spot price is 15,083, and current - month basis is 1553 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 7.38%, spot price is 5890, and current - month basis is 405 [4]. Financial Instruments - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.69%, spot price is 4593.5, and current - month basis is 8.5 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is - 0.03%, spot price is 2952.7, and current - month basis is - 1.1 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 2.44%, spot price is 7341.3, and current - month basis is 48.1 [4].

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025, highlighting the ongoing investment cooperation between China and SCO member countries [1] - As of July 2025, China's investment stock in other SCO member countries exceeds $84 billion, with cooperation expanding from traditional sectors like oil and gas to emerging fields such as digital economy and green development [1] - China has signed investment protection agreements with all member countries, including upgraded agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, enhancing mutual investment protection and improving investment access [1] Group 2 - Trade between China and other SCO member countries reached a record high of approximately $512.4 billion in 2024, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, doubling the trade volume since the 2018 Qingdao Summit [2] - In the previous year, China imported nearly $90 billion worth of oil, natural gas, and coal from SCO member countries, with energy products accounting for about one-fifth of China's total imports [2] - The establishment of a connectivity network among SCO countries is rapidly progressing, with significant infrastructure projects like the China-Russia Tongjiang Railway Bridge and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway [2] Group 3 - Following the Tianjin Summit, the Ministry of Commerce will send a delegation to Russia for the 24th SCO Economic Ministers' Meeting on September 6, focusing on implementing the economic outcomes from the Tianjin Summit [2] - Future regional economic cooperation within the SCO will focus on integrated trade and investment development, deepening international supply chain cooperation, and enhancing connectivity [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday (August 12), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with industrial products mostly rising and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1] - The steel market is in a tight - balance state between "policy expectation support" and "off - season demand suppression", and high - level volatility of steel is expected. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of hot metal production and the implementation of production - restriction policies [1] - In the short term, due to the impact of China - Canada trade policies, the vegetable oil sector may continue to show a strong - oscillating trend, and palm oil may also continue its strong performance, with market sentiment remaining bullish [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Black Series - Most black - series commodities rose. After the implementation of production - restriction news in Tangshan over the weekend and the upward trend of coking coal and coke futures prices, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded by about 1%. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons last week, reaching a more than two - month high [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. For copper, with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and a strong bullish atmosphere in industrial products, the copper market showed a strong performance. For lithium carbonate, it opened sharply higher, then oscillated and declined, with a supply contraction due to the shutdown of a mine in Jiangxi, but the increase in spodumene - based lithium production would supplement part of the supply reduction. With increased downstream production scheduling in August, the fundamentals improved marginally [1] Energy Products - Energy products rebounded after a decline. International oil prices stabilized and rebounded overnight, driving up the sentiment in the domestic crude - oil market. In the short term, due to OPEC +'s planned production increase in September and concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may support short - term price increases. In the long term, due to OPEC +'s production - increase strategy, weakening peak - season demand, inventory accumulation, and the increasing substitution rate of the new - energy industry, oil prices are still under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products rose. The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce led to a sharp rise in the far - month vegetable oil contracts, while the main 09 contract of rapeseed meal fell under the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts. Palm oil continued to be strong due to lower - than - expected production growth and inventory in Malaysia and the impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are in a risk - on state this week, but the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences. China's exports in July showed good performance, but there are risks of decline and restricted re - export trade in the future. For major assets, a defensive layout should be maintained, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities, maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state this week under the background of weak US economic fundamentals and intensified tariff threats. The inflection point of the pre - released concentrated overseas demand is approaching, and the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from a weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the event is settled, the capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. Considering Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, they are expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. Considering factors such as the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Considering policy - level dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coke**: Five rounds of price increases have been implemented, and coke - enterprise production has recovered. Considering steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased due to coal - mine disturbances, and the market is strengthening after sentiment improvement. Considering steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is sentiment - driven, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is sentiment - driven, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering cost prices and overseas quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Glass**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and rigid demand is relatively stable. Considering spot sales, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse - receipt pressure is emerging, and production is still recovering. Considering soda - ash inventory, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession is rising, and copper prices are under pressure. Considering supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are increasing again, and alumina prices are under pressure. Considering factors such as less - than - expected ore resumption and more - than - expected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are rising. Considering macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black - metal sector have rebounded again, and zinc prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc - ore supply, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead is disturbed, and lead prices are slightly rebounding. Considering supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory is high, and nickel prices are fluctuating widely. Considering unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel - iron is rising continuously, and the stainless - steel market is rising in a volatile manner. Considering Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and tin prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate is moving in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns are easing, but supply pressure still exists. Considering OPEC + production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **LPG**: Supported by chemical demand, the cracking spread has stabilized. Considering the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and the futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. Considering more - than - expected demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is following crude oil and fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, it is moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Considering export - policy trends and the elimination of production capacity, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PX**: Subject to planned maintenance, it cannot boost processing fees, and the price is still under cost pressure. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and more - than - expected PTA device maintenance, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PTA**: Subject to cost constraints, it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Considering wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and more - than - expected polyester load reduction, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has improved slightly. Considering the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream spinning mills, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the height of processing - fee repair is limited. Considering more - than - expected production increase by bottle - chip enterprises and a sharp increase in overseas export orders, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Plastic**: Inventory is accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost, the market is moving in a volatile manner. Considering expectations, cost, and supply, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner for the time being. Considering market sentiment, production, and demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is positive, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. Considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The trading volume of far - month basis contracts has increased, and the market is worried about the supply gap in the fourth quarter. Considering US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. 3.3 Agriculture - **Corn/Starch**: The market continues to move weakly in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Rubber**: Supported by strong raw - material prices, rubber prices are rising in a volatile manner. Considering plantation weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by tight raw - material supply, the market is rising. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is running stably. Considering macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, cotton prices are rising. Considering marginal changes in demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Considering imports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Logs**: Logs are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering shipment volume and transportation volume, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil price is expected to be volatile and strong after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1]. - For precious metals, maintain the idea of buying on dips in the volatile trend [2]. - For copper, hold short positions [3]. - Aluminum is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For casting aluminum alloy, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the futures spread widens [5]. - For alumina, short on rebounds based on the recent high of 3500 yuan [6]. - For zinc, continue the idea of short on rebounds [7]. - For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions with the support of 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - For nickel, look for opportunities to short [9]. - For tin, hold short positions at high levels [10]. - For lithium carbonate, try light - position long positions in the short term [11]. - For polysilicon, it is likely to have a wide - range shock in the range of 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to position control [12]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, pay attention to the off - season demand承接 ability [14]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [15]. - For coke, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [16]. - For coking coal, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [17]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, pay attention to the support at the 5800 level [18]. - For ferrosilicon, it follows the trend of ferrosilicon manganese, and the power cost may decline again [19]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold existing short positions [20]. - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spreads are weak [21]. - For asphalt, the unilateral trend follows the oil price with limited fluctuation space [22]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, it runs at a low level overall [23]. - For urea, the short - term market is weak and volatile [24]. - For methanol, pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25]. - For pure benzene, conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - For styrene, the price continues to run weakly [27]. - For polypropylene, plastic, and propylene, the prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - For PVC and caustic soda, PVC is expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29]. - For PX and PTA, the mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the price continues to decline [31]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip is restricted [32]. - For glass, it runs weakly [33]. - For rubber, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34]. - For soda ash, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, the market is initially treated as a shock [36]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - For domestic soybeans, the market is initially treated as a shock [39]. - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - For live pigs, it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [41]. - For eggs, the futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - For sugar, the sugar price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - For apples, pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - For timber, maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - For pulp, the price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - For stock index futures, maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - For treasury bond futures, it may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Summaries by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent's October contract still rose 2.84%, and SC09 rose 2.92%. OPEC + decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU crack spreads continued to decline, and the market fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. The demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory removal was weak [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP dropped significantly, the supply was loose, and the price was at a low level [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and precious metals rebounded [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper closed down. Pay attention to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory increased, and it was under pressure in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and it was recommended to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The price dropped, and it was advisable to hold long positions with support [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and it was recommended to short [9]. - **Tin**: The London tin rose. Hold short positions at high levels [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply and demand were relatively balanced, and pay attention to the support at 5800 [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: It followed the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost might decline [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season, and the short - term market was weak and volatile [24]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the supply was sufficient. Pay attention to macro policies [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price was weak, and it was recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to be weak [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The prices were prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC was expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda was under pressure at high levels [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The mid - term processing margin had a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip was restricted [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It ran weakly, and the inventory increased [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans were under pressure, and the market was initially treated as a shock [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price was in a shock, and pay attention to the weather [39]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - **Live Pigs**: The futures price may have peaked, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - **Apples**: Pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - **Timber**: The demand improved, the inventory was low, and maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - **Pulp**: The price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was volatile. Maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route decreased slightly. The主力 EC2510 contract was deeply discounted, and it is recommended to hold short positions [20].