一、前言：港股的寒冬与转机 过去几年，港股市场长期低迷，恒生指数一度跌破万八点关口，创下近十年的新低。高利率环境、全球资金流出、地缘政治紧 张、中概股估值承压等多重因素，使得港股被贴上了"价值陷阱"的标签。 2025港股还能上涨吗？中概股回归与投资机会 但进入 2025 年，随着美联储货币政策转向宽松、中国经济逐渐企稳、中概股加速回归，市场开始重新思考一个问题：港股是否 迎来新的上涨周期？中概股的回归是否会带来投资机会？ 二、港股市场现状与核心矛盾 1. 估值洼地特征明显 港股的整体市盈率长期处于 8~10 倍，部分蓝筹甚至不足 6 倍。与美股、A 股相比，港股已经具备"全球最低估值市场"的特征。 2. 流动性不足仍是痛点 过去几年，南下资金成为港股最主要的增量资金。但由于市场信心不足，成交量常年低迷，导致股价缺乏持续上涨动力。 3. 高股息率是支撑点 越来越多中概股企业选择在香港二次上市，甚至从美股回流。港股作为"中概股集散地"的定位进一步强化。 三、驱动2025年港股走势的关键因素 1. 美联储货币政策转向 2025 年美联储进入降息周期，全球流动性有望改善，资金可能回流新兴市场，包括港股。 2. 中国经 ...

Core Viewpoint - *ST Lanhuang is attempting to reverse its ongoing business decline and consecutive years of losses by expanding into the beverage sector through strategic investments and partnerships [1][3]. Expansion of Beverage Business - On September 5, *ST Lanhuang announced plans to acquire 50.63% of Yiwang Juice Co., Ltd. for 0 yuan and will invest 26.9175 million yuan to fulfill the corresponding capital obligations, with 5 million yuan allocated to registered capital and 21.9175 million yuan to capital reserves [2]. - Yiwang Juice specializes in the research, production, and sales of concentrated apple juice, which is a key raw material in the beverage industry. Despite generating only 5.16 thousand yuan in revenue and a net loss of 221.77 thousand yuan in the first half of the year, the company projects revenues of 52.664 million yuan and a net profit of 3.6949 million yuan for 2024 [2]. - The establishment of a joint venture with Chongqing Chengbiao Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. and Yancheng Silk Road Anlu Equity Investment Partnership aims to enhance investment in the juice sector, with a registered capital of 70 million yuan, where *ST Lanhuang will contribute 35.7 million yuan for a 51% stake [3]. Ongoing Financial Losses - *ST Lanhuang has faced significant financial pressure, reporting net losses of 29.2442 million yuan, 46.7207 million yuan, and 99.87 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with revenues declining from 266 million yuan to 211 million yuan over the same period [4]. - The company's struggles are attributed to prolonged control disputes that have hindered its ability to capitalize on opportunities in the beer industry, leading to a widening gap with leading competitors [5]. - The company is at risk of being delisted if it fails to meet revenue and profit thresholds, with projections indicating that its revenue may fall below 300 million yuan in 2025, necessitating the acquisition of Yiwang Juice and the establishment of a new beverage company as a short-term solution to avoid delisting [5]. Strategic Intent - The move to diversify into the beverage sector reflects *ST Lanhuang's strategy to improve its financial situation and seek new growth avenues, despite the recent poor performance of Yiwang Juice [3][6]. - The success of this strategy will depend on various factors, including market demand, product positioning, and effective marketing strategies, alongside efforts to control costs and enhance operational efficiency [6].

Core Insights - The "factory tour" trend has gained popularity during the summer, with many factories opening their doors to visitors and offering diverse educational programs [1][8] - The Qingdao Beer Museum reported record-breaking visitor numbers and ticket sales during the summer, indicating strong demand for immersive experiences [1][2] - Various private enterprises in Zhejiang are expanding their "factory tour" projects, providing hands-on experiences for students and families [2][3] Group 1: Popularity and Demand - The Qingdao Beer Museum experienced a significant increase in visitor numbers, with daily attendance reaching historical highs during the summer [1] - The "Golden Wonderful Night" program at the museum saw a 77% increase in visitor numbers compared to the previous year [2] - The agricultural technology company's oil processing facility in Zhejiang attracted many students eager to learn about traditional oil extraction methods [2][3] Group 2: Experience and Engagement - The "Elephant Community" woodworking workshop in Zhejiang offers creative courses that engage participants of all ages, utilizing leftover materials from furniture production [4] - The Guangzhou dairy farm reported a rise in visitor numbers, particularly among children aged 3 to 12, highlighting the appeal of interactive experiences [6][8] - Factory tours emphasize interaction and education, making them attractive to parents looking for engaging activities for their children [8] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth of "factory tours," challenges remain, including transportation issues and inadequate supporting facilities in suburban areas [8][9] - Experts suggest that factories need to balance production and tourism to enhance visitor experiences without disrupting operations [8][9] - Collaboration with tourism platforms and local governments is essential to improve accessibility and infrastructure for "factory tours" [9]

美国对我国的关税已经来到了104%，美国的行为摆明了就是想将我国的商品挡在门外，虽然我们也做出了相应的反制，殊不知仍有一些被误认为是国货的 美国品牌在中国大赚。 那么都有哪些品牌看似是国货，其实是美国品牌呢？ 随着美国的关税政策越来越咄咄逼人，我国也向美国表明了我们的态度，那就是坚决奉陪到底！ 国货 在中国，几乎没有人没吃过双汇火腿肠，无论是泡面搭档、烧烤必备，还是学生时代的课间零食，双汇早已渗透进普通人的日常生活。 1998年，双汇凭借物美价廉的产品迅速占领市场，成为肉制品行业的龙头，那时候的双汇的确是实打实的民族品牌。 资本的游戏往往悄无声息，2006年，美国高盛集团以20亿美元的价格收购了双汇的多数股权，这一动作在当时并未引起太多关注。 双汇 2013年，双汇的母公司万洲国际更是直接收购了美国最大的猪肉生产商史密斯菲尔德，完成了从"中国品牌"到"全球食品巨头"的转变。 双汇现在虽然仍在中国生产、销售，但它的利润早已流向大洋彼岸的股东手中。 中美关税战打响后，双汇并未受到太大冲击，它的生产线和供应链几乎全部本土化，原材料来自国内养殖场，终端市场也集中在中国。 双汇 即便美国对中国出口的猪肉加征高额关税，双 ...

在行业缩水和巨头渠道下沉的双重压力下，兰州黄河（000929.SZ），这位西北市场的昔日霸主，通过连续发布的两则公告，彰显了其押宝饮料行业的坚定 决心。 同时，另一公告透露，兰州黄河将以0元的价格受让西安淳果饮品有限公司持有的吴忠市义旺果汁有限公司50.6329%的股权，并承诺投入2691.75万元履行相 应的出资义务，其中500万元计入注册资本，其余计入资本公积。 兰州黄河表示，这两项举措旨在进一步拓展饮料业务。新成立的饮品公司将专注于果汁领域的投资与发展，而收购义旺果汁则能强化上下游协同效应，优化 业务结构，扩大业务规模，挖掘新的利润增长点。 资本市场迅速反应，9月4日，*ST兰黄股价高开，随后触及9.29元的高点，但随后震荡下行，收盘时下跌2.47%，报8.69元/股。次日午盘，*ST兰黄继续下跌 0.12%，报收8.68元/股。 义旺果汁专注于浓缩苹果汁的研发、生产和销售，已建立了成熟的采购体系和稳定的销售渠道。2024年，该公司实现营收5266.4万元，净利润369.49万元。 今年上半年，兰州黄河在饮料板块加大了研发投入，不仅推进了产品的更新换代和品类拓展，还新增了三款风味汽水，并着手研发"轻轻解 ...

Core Insights - The overall performance of China's consumer market in the first half of 2025 was subdued, while new consumption trends showed strong growth, a pattern observed over the past 18 months [1] - Among the companies covered by Bank of America, 36% exceeded earnings expectations, 31% fell short, and the remainder met or showed mixed results [1] Domestic Consumption Trends - Restaurant businesses primarily relying on takeout benefited from subsidy policies, with companies like Mixue Group reporting a 13% year-on-year increase in sales per store, largely driven by these subsidies [2] - The average selling price (ASP) in the restaurant and beverage sectors, particularly bottled water, has shown a downward trend, with CR Beverage experiencing an 18.5% decline in sales, nearly half attributed to falling prices [3] Channel Transformation - Companies are reporting strong sales for products customized for emerging channels like Sam's Club and discount snack stores, with some leading firms even providing OEM services for these channels [4] - The trend towards private labels is becoming more pronounced due to channel fragmentation and diminishing brand prestige [4] Consumption Highlights - Areas such as ready-to-drink beverages (sugar-free tea, energy drinks), freshly brewed tea and coffee, snacks (konjac products), outdoor activities, emotional consumption, and discount channels are performing well [5] - This aligns with Bank of America's recent report on new consumption, which emphasizes five core consumer areas: emotional value, health and wellness, diverse experiences, convenient services, and emerging channels [5] New Consumption Differentiation - Despite strong performance from some new consumption companies, market sentiment appears cautious, with Bubble Mart seen as a consensus buy, while the milk tea sector faces negative sentiment [6] Overseas Business and Shareholder Returns - The anticipated rush in orders for the second half of 2025 may lead to sequential growth slowdowns due to high base effects, with tariff-sharing mechanisms potentially limiting OEM profit margins in the short term [7] - A stable shareholder return is noted, with 4%-5% dividend yields common among covered consumer stocks, and several companies increasing dividend frequencies [8] Future Cyclical Trends - The white liquor and dairy sectors are highlighted for potential upward cycles in 2026, with investors showing interest in companies that have faced significant sales declines but are expected to clean up their profit and loss statements [9] - Conversely, the white goods and milk tea sectors are anticipated to face downward cycles, with concerns over high base effects and uncertain performance in 2026 [10]

此次交接正值华润啤酒业绩表现亮眼之际。华润啤酒2025年中期财报显示，上半年实现净利润57.89亿 元，同比增长23%，创下历史新高。但华润啤酒同时也面临着啤酒高端化竞争加剧和白酒业务整合的双 重挑战。上半年白酒业务营业额同比下降超三成，与啤酒业务的稳健增长形成鲜明对比。 赵春武的职业轨迹与前任主席侯孝海颇为相似。他于2022年5月被任命为公司副总裁，次年8月升任执行 董事兼总裁。据华润啤酒公告，截至2024年12月31日止年度，赵春武的薪酬包括18万元董事袍金、约 158.52万元的薪金及津贴，以及约178.78万元的酌情花红。 华润啤酒董事会对赵春武给予高度评价，认为他在担任执行董事及总裁期间展现出卓越的管理和领导能 力。董事会基于其工作经验、全面领导能力和卓越工作表现，认为他是主席职务的最佳人选，并相信他 能够推动公司及其附属公司实现进一步发展。 华润啤酒（00291.HK）于9月3日正式宣布，执行董事赵春武由总裁调任为董事会主席，并担任公司财 务委员会主席。这一人事变动标志着华润啤酒在创始人侯孝海离职两个月后，终于迎来了新的掌舵者。 今年54岁的赵春武是华润啤酒体系内成长起来的高级管理人员。他于200 ...

燕京啤酒所属申万行业为：食品饮料-非白酒-啤酒。所属概念板块包括：啤酒、融资融券、中盘、基金 重仓等。 9月5日，燕京啤酒盘中下跌2.03%，截至13:26，报12.09元/股，成交2.18亿元，换手率0.71%，总市值 340.76亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2749.77万元，特大单买入669.78万元，占比3.07%，卖出2432.21万元， 占比11.14%；大单买入2760.61万元，占比12.65%，卖出3747.95万元，占比17.17%。 燕京啤酒今年以来股价涨2.03%，近5个交易日跌4.05%，近20日跌7.85%，近60日跌0.49%。 资料显示，北京燕京啤酒股份有限公司位于北京市顺义区双河路9号，成立日期1997年7月8日，上市日 期1997年7月16日，公司主营业务涉及啤酒、水、啤酒原料、茶饮料、酵母、饲料等产品的制造和销 售。主营业务收入构成为：啤酒92.26%，其他5.86%，茶饮料0.97%，饲料0.80%，天然水0.11%。 截至8月29日，燕京啤酒股东户数5.35万，较上期减少5.30%；人均流通股46925股，较上期增加5.59%。 2025年1月-6月，燕京啤酒 ...

作者：谢之迎 编辑：陈晓平 图源：视觉中国 掌舵800亿市值啤酒巨头，人选终于落定。 9月3日晚，华润啤酒公告，即日起，执行董事赵春武由总裁调任为董事会主席，并获任为财务委员会主席。 过去2个多月，赵本人已代行董事会主席职责，6月下旬，其前任侯孝海因个人原因请辞。其间，赵只有少数几次公开露面。 他上任的节点，一边是啤酒高端化转入"下半场"，缩量竞争；一边是白酒业深度调整，收购的资产遭遇下行。 "现任管理层对于下一步发展有着高度共识，对于此前侯孝海带领下的战略，以延续和发扬为主，不会有太大改动。"赵春武在8 月业绩会如此说。 他在2022年5月获任为华润啤酒副总裁，跻身高管，次年8月，即越过多位资深同事，成为执行董事并调任总裁；其后只用两 年，又登顶一号位。 赵本人是华润啤酒"老兵"，在内部历练20多年。 2003年，他加入华润雪花啤酒，从销售发展部副总经理起步，先后任浙江、福建、安徽、江苏及上海区域公司总经理。 业界评价，赵长期深耕长三角、东南沿海等战略市场，精于渠道网络构建与终端精细化管理。 入职华润前，他任职于百事可乐、南京英特布鲁及箭牌口香糖等公司，在市场营销领域也拥有丰富经验。从营销到渠道，再到 总部 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Fuling Zhacai is reassessing its key pickled vegetable business due to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [1][4] - In the first half of 2025, Fuling Zhacai reported a revenue increase of 0.5% year-on-year to 1.31 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.7% to 440 million yuan [1] - Revenue from the pickled vegetable category was 1.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, while sales volume declined by 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The company is facing challenges in sales channels as consumer preferences shift towards alternative products, and urban population trends are affecting its market coverage [3] - Fuling Zhacai is implementing a strategy to expand product categories and market reach, focusing on new product development and channel expansion [3] - The company is adjusting its production plans by reducing conventional pickled vegetable production lines and increasing the production of multi-specification products and sauces [3] Group 3 - The stock price of Fuling Zhacai was reported at 13.24 yuan per share, with a slight increase of 0.76% [5] - The consumer index for the sector showed a decline, with the consumption index dropping by 2.21% [6]