期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-01 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------- ...

| 象胶产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | 2025年12月1日 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及基差 | 品中 | 11月28日 | 11月27日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15000 | 1.35% | 14800 | 200 | 全乳基差 | 14.58% | -410 | -480 | 70 | | | 元/吨 | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14650 | 14600 | 50 | 0.34% | | | | | | | 非标价差 | -760 | -680 | -80 | E11.76% | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.45 | 1 | - | . | | | 泰铢/公斤 | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.00 | 57.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-01 原油 2025/12/01 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 0.66%，报 3038.00 元/吨。 新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0.90 百万桶至 13.52 百万桶，环比去库 6.23%； 柴油库存去库 1.95 百万桶至 8.01 百万桶，环比去库 19.62%；燃料油库存累库 0.19 百万桶至 24.71 百万桶，环比累库 0.78%；总成品油去库 2.66 百万桶至 46.24 百万桶，环比去库 5.44%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素研究员 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【欧洲议会表决：超61%同意EUDR推迟12个月】法国当地时间11月26日上午11点（北京时间26日下午18点），欧洲议会投票通过EUDR推迟12个月执行的决 议。投票表决显示，657名参与投票议员中，赞成票407名，反对票245名，弃权票5名。赞成票占比61.95%。决议要点如下：1、新实施时间表大中型运营商： 延期至2026年12月30日；小微运营商：延期至2027年6月30日2、欧盟委员会将于2026年4月前完成对EUDR"行政负担"的评估，并根据评估结 ...

Core Insights - In September 2025, China's synthetic rubber production reached 774,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, with the growth rate up by 18.2 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative synthetic rubber production was 6.616 million tons, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with the growth rate increasing by 10.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4] Monthly Production Analysis - The synthetic rubber production for September 2025 was 774,000 tons, showing a significant increase in production compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of 13.5% in September 2025 is notably higher than the previous year's rate, indicating a robust upward trend in production [1] Cumulative Production Analysis - For the first nine months of 2025, the total production of synthetic rubber was 6.616 million tons, which is an increase of 11.2% year-on-year [4] - The growth rate of 11.2% for the January to September period also reflects a substantial improvement compared to the previous year's growth rate [4]

据交易所官网披露的审核动态，本周北交所IPO审议落下帷幕：3家企业闯关，2家顺利过会。 永大股份则成为年内首个被暂缓审议的项目，引发市场关注。回溯审核进程，公司本次IPO已完成两轮问询答复，业绩可持续性、募投项目合理性等核心问 题始终是监管关注焦点，审议现场上市委亦围绕相关事项进一步追问。值得注意的是，公司在审期间两度调整募投规划，不仅砍掉补流项目，还调减了"重 型化工装备生产基地一期建设项目"的拟投入募资规模，这一动态也为其审核进程增添了变数。 一、本周过会 1、昆山海菲曼科技集团股份有限公司：（通过） 海菲曼成立于2011年，公司控股股东和实际控制人均为边仿，公司是国内少数拥有全球影响力的高端电声品牌商，主要从事自主品牌"HIFIMAN"终端电声 产品的设计、研发、生产和销售，公司产品包括头戴式耳机、真无线耳机、有线入耳式耳机、播放设备等。 2022-2024年和2025年1-6月，海菲曼营业收入分别为1.54亿元、2.03亿元、2.27亿元和1.07亿元；净利润分别为0.36亿元、0.55亿元、0.67亿元和0.35亿元。 2、大连美德乐工业自动化股份有限公司：（通过） 11月27日，美德乐北交所IPO ...

在过去的近一个月的时间里，全球的宏观运行呈现以下一些特征： 第一， 美元流动性出现了明显的反复，虽然美联储降息和缩表不断落地，但美联储尝 试释放中性信号而避免释放过于鸽派的信息，其对于美债收益率曲线和美元汇 率稳定的诉求较为强烈，这引发了美元资产的回落并把紧张向非美地区传导； 第二，进入到 10 月份之后，伴随美元流动性的反复而出现的宏观现象是经贸 和地缘局势的扰动，在经贸问题上，特朗普的 TACO 交易再现，中美领导人的 APEC 会议上的会晤还是平稳落地了，但特朗普访华时间延后。虽然中东的局 势没有进一步恶化，但是在俄乌仍然焦灼的背景下，地缘风险又有向亚洲蔓延 的特征；第三，面对外部的不确定性，在美联储降息之际，国内的经济政策亦 有一些动作，比如央行宣布恢复国债的购买，但整体来看经济政策的变动不大。 商业银行准备金的大幅回落，从而引发了流动性的压力 升，这倒逼了美联储停止缩表以及美国政府结束停摆 相应大类资产运行则呈现出以下几个方面的特征： 第一，在此前"复苏" 交易和"衰退"交易并存在定价体系下，进入到 10 月份之后随着美元流动性 的压力再现，大类资产的定价整体朝着避险甚至"滞胀"交易进行了回摆，商 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since September, the rubber sector has been oscillating within a range, with the bottom rising but struggling to break previous highs, making it difficult to disprove both long and short positions [6]. - In the natural rubber market, the El Niño index was still on an upward trend as of early October, while the Southern Oscillation Index showed signs of stabilization in August. Attention is focused on whether the data early in November will show a clear turning - point [6]. - Thailand's floods in late November have drawn market attention. The weekly average production - weighted rainfall of 39.01mm reached a new high since March 2011, with a short - term impact on supply similar to that driving the sharp rise in late 2016 [6]. - Currently, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant. From April to September, the total apparent consumption of butadiene rubber was 744,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of +21.6%, the highest since January 2021, contributing to the BR - RU spread widening to 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. - After the concentrated cancellation of RU contract warehouse receipts in 2024, the total inventory dropped below 80,000 tons, the lowest since 2012. A warehouse receipt level of 100,000 tons may be a dividing line between bear and bull markets, and the RU contract with domestic WF as the underlying asset has met one of the conditions for a trend reversal [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (Energy Center) has revised the regulations of the 20 - rubber futures, preparing for the introduction of African rubber. The future announced premium or discount will determine whether the NR pricing remains unchanged or moves downward [7]. - Downstream and macro data are positive. Monetary liquidity is abundant, whether observed from the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, or the domestic M1 - M2 gap. Although the domestic stock market has declined, its 20% year - on - year increase is significantly stronger than that of the rubber sector. Tire consumption is relatively stable, with industry power consumption, tire production, operating rates, and inventory mostly on par with last year. It may take time for macro expectations to be reflected in the rubber sector [7]. - The fundamentals are relatively strong [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Supply 3.1.1 Climate - **ENSO (El Niño, Southern Oscillation Composite Index)**: Analyzed the impact of the ENSO index on the RU single - side, including index changes and leading relationships [18][20][22]. - **El Niño**: Studied its influence on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, with corresponding index analyses and leading - time relationships [26][32]. - **Southern Oscillation**: Examined its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, along with index analyses and leading - time relationships [37][41]. 3.1.2 Commodity Valuation - **Crude Oil and Gold**: Analyzed the prices of crude oil and gold and their index - based impacts on the RU single - side, the BR - RU spread, and the smoke - sheet - RU spread [47][49][59]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: Studied the price of Brent crude oil and its index - based impact on the BR - RU spread [54]. - **Gold**: Analyzed the price of gold and its index - based impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [59]. 3.2 Micro Supply 3.2.1 Global Data - **Absolute Price**: Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, previous - month, and previous - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [66]. 3.2.2 Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of the ANRPC natural rubber industry and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [69][74]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, its impacts on the RU single - side, the smoke - sheet - RU spread, and the BR - RU spread; also analyzed glue and cup - rubber prices, related spreads, and their impacts on the BR - RU spread; and examined the export of smoked - sheet rubber and its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [80][95][121]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. 3.3 Trade Circulation 3.3.1 Global Data - **Balance Sheets of Six Major Southeast Asian Producing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2 Overseas Data - **International Trade**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Japanese Rubber Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Malaysian Natural Rubber Retail Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Southeast Asian Standard - Rubber Processing Profit**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Overseas Rubber and Plastic Machinery**: Not elaborated in the provided content

证券之星消息，11月28日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨0.17%，三 力 士领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3888.6，上涨0.34%。深证成指报收于12984.08，上涨0.85%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流出1175.69万元，游资资金净流出697.99万元，散户资金 净流入1873.67万元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300731 科创新源 | | -3210.89万 | 5.68% | 438.74万 | 0.78% | -3649.64万 | -6.46% | | 603650 彤程新材 | | 1349.72万 | 2.18% | -1006.04万 | -1.62% | -343.68万 | -0.55% | | 300587 | 天铁科技 | 776.38万 | 2.33% | -1677.75万 | -5.03% ...

本次党建共建与业务交流活动的成功举办，标志着国泰君安期货与海胶集团的合作迈入了党建引领、业务协同的新阶 段，为"稳产行动"项目的深入实施及未来更广阔领域的合作奠定了坚实基础。 近年来，国泰君安期货以"上期所天然橡胶支农专项-稳产行动项目"为重要抓手，联合海胶集团和云胶集团，在海南 省、云南省累计开展10个合作项目，支持天然橡胶规模达29880吨，有效服务天然橡胶这一战略物资的稳产保供工 作，为保障国家重要农产品供给安全、促进地方经济发展持续贡献专业力量。 近日，国泰君安期货、国泰君安风险管理有限公司与海南天然橡胶产业集团金橡有限公司（以下简称"海胶金橡"）成 功举行党建共建座谈交流活动，并围绕2025年"上期所天然橡胶支农专项-稳产行动项目"推进及深化合作开展深入交 流。 座谈会回顾了国泰君安期货与海胶集团长期良好的合作历程。双方已连续四年携手开展"稳产行动"项目，本次合作成 效显著，主要得益于两大关键因素：一方面，充分发挥"期现结合"优势，海胶集团依托其行业龙头地位，有效整合资 源与品牌优势，国泰君安期货及其风险管理公司则提供专业的行情研判与创新方案设计，共同赋能橡胶产业稳健发 展；另一方面，通过党建联建的 ...