[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 "反内卷"加码扩围，低通胀何时改 善？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2025 年 07 月 18 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 CPI 及 PPI 均处于"低通胀"阶段。2025 年 6 月 CPI 同比上涨仅为 0.1%，距离 2%的通胀目标仍有较远距离，CPI 较低主要源于四方面因素：1）属于非核心 CPI 的食品和能源对 CPI 拖累较多，这两者主要受猪价和油价影响，两者受供给侧因 素影响今年以来表现较弱。2）"去地产化"的拖累可能被低估，CPI 房租租赁的 波动较小，难以有效反映房租真实的变动，我们在《走出"低价"，关注什么？》 中有详细分析。3）由于财富效应的作用，"房地产"对整体消费能力和消费意愿 的扰动可能高于预期，拖累商品及服务价格表现。4）周期性服务和耐用品价格表 现较弱，这部分与居民消费能力、意愿有重要关联，也容易受政策影响出现"以价 换量"的特征。 6 月 PPI 同 ...

金十整理：工信部未来重点安排一览 1. 加快推动信息通信业发展 ②将持续落实铜、铝、黄金产业高质量发展实施方案。 ③钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台。 ④将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。 ⑤加快实施"人工智能+"行动，推动大模型在制造业重点行业落地部署。 ①加快推进5G-A、万兆光网试点部署。 ②推动工业互联网与人工智能协同赋能。 ③加快推进6G技术研发，前瞻布局和培育面向6G的应用产业生态。 ④有序推进增值电信业务对外开放，支持更多外资企业参与试点。 2. 实施新一轮稳增长行动 ①近期将印发机械、汽车、电力装备等行业稳增长工作方案。 ②研究修订中小企业划型标准，推进税费政策便捷惠及小微企业。 ③将推进设立国家中小企业发展基金二期，带动更多社会资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技。 ⑥推动人形机器人、元宇宙、脑机接口等未来产业创新发展，超前布局新领域新赛道。 3. 实施智能化绿色化转型升级行动 ①将印发汽车行业数字化转型实施方案。 ②落实机械和电力装备2个行业数字化转型实施方案。 4. 推动中小企业健康发展 ①将开展专项行动解决拖欠中小企业账款问题。 ③纺织、轻工、食 ...

1.6岁男童误吞遥控器电池获赔2.87亿元 苏黎世财产保险（中国）有限公司近日披露的重大赔付公告显示，因一款出口美国的空调遥控器电池被6岁 男童误吞导致永久性伤害，被保险人与原告以4000万美元（约合人民币2.87亿元）达成和解，其作为超赔层 保险人承担了折合人民币1.4128亿元的赔偿责任。 2.阿联酋航空拟支持加密货币买机票，预计明年生效 阿联酋航空(Emirates)与新加坡加密货币交易所Crypto.com签署合作备忘录，探索允许客户透过该加密货币 平台，为机票预订进行加密货币支付方案，措施预计于明年生效。同时，阿联酋的迪拜免税店(DDF)确认与 Crypto.com建立合作伙伴关系，探索在店内和网上购物接受加密货币。 点评：阿联酋航空引领航空业加密支付革命，瞄准Z世代新市场。 3.《2025年国家基本医疗保险、生育保险和工伤保险药品目录及商业健康保险创新药品目录调整工作方案》 等相关文件公布 根据工作安排，国家医保局正式公布《2025年国家基本医疗保险、生育保险和工伤保险药品目录及商业健 康保险创新药品目录调整工作方案》《2025年国家基本医疗保险、生育保险和工伤保险药品目录及商业健 康保险创新药品 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has strategically increased its nickel reserves in response to geopolitical tensions and market conditions, particularly in light of the U.S.-China trade war initiated by Trump, which has led to a significant drop in nickel prices due to increased production from Indonesia [1][3]. Group 1: Nickel Procurement Strategy - Since December of the previous year, China has purchased up to 100,000 tons of nickel, with 77,000 tons acquired in the first five months of this year, indicating a potential doubling of reserves by 2025 [1][3]. - The price of nickel has fallen by 40% due to increased production from Indonesia, allowing China to capitalize on this opportunity to stockpile nickel at historically low prices [3]. Group 2: Importance of Nickel - Nickel is a critical alloying element in stainless steel, and China, being the largest stainless steel producer globally, requires substantial nickel reserves [5]. - The growing application of nickel in the electric vehicle industry, particularly in battery production, underscores the necessity for China to secure its nickel supply amid the booming demand for electric vehicles [7]. - Nickel-based alloys are also essential for national defense materials, including components for aircraft engines and rockets, further emphasizing the strategic importance of nickel reserves [7]. Group 3: Timing and Geopolitical Considerations - The timing of China's nickel procurement aligns with the geopolitical landscape, as actions were taken shortly after Trump's election, anticipating potential trade conflicts and supply chain disruptions [9]. - The increasing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the likelihood of U.S. actions against China in critical mineral sectors necessitate proactive measures to ensure resource security [9].

——2025 年 6 月物价数据点评 研究发展部总监 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 6 月，CPI 同比上升 0.1%，上月为下降 0.1%，1-6 月 CPI 累计同比下降 0.1%；6 月 PPI 同比下降 3.6%，上月为下降 3.3%，1-6 月 PPI 累计同比下降 2.8%。 东方金诚宏观研究 6 月菜价、油价上涨推动 CPI 同比转正，PPI 同比降幅有所扩大 基本观点：6 月 CPI 同比由负转正，主要推动力量是当月蔬菜价格同比降幅显著收窄，以及 6 月国际 原油价格上冲带动国内能源价格同比由负转正。另外，国内促消费政策发力，对汽车、家电价格形成支撑。 上半年 CPI 累计同比为-0.1%，处于明显偏低水平，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，其中消费需求不足 是主要原因。这为下半年货币政策继续降息、财政政策持续加力促消费扩投资，有力对冲外部波动提供了 充分的政策空间。在国际油价回升背景下，6 月 PPI 环比跌幅与上月持平，同比跌幅进一步扩大，主因受 国内需求偏弱而供给充足影响，煤炭、钢材、水泥等能源和工业品价格加速下行，另外，受关税政策和外 需放缓影响，部分出口导向型行业价 ...

【导读】美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，英伟达股价创历史新高，总市值超过3.9万亿美元；特 朗普称将对铜征收50%的关税，相关品类和概念股直线拉升 见习记者 储是 美东时间7月8日（周二），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数下跌0.37%，报收于44240.76点；标普500指数下跌0.07%，报收于 6225.52点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.03%，报20418.46点。 欧元区方面，7月8日，欧洲股市集体收涨，欧洲斯托克50指数收涨0.67%，德国DAX30指数 收涨0.76%，英国富时100指数收涨0.56%，法国CAC40指数收涨0.56%。 | 美股指数 它 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 44240.76 | 20418.46 | 6225.52 | | -165.60 -0.37% | +5.94 +0.03% | -4.46 -0.07% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7484.90 | 22918.50 | 6275.50 | | +53.08 +0.71% | +21.75 ...

Market Overview - Recent market volatility has led to a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index supported by bank stocks while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index experienced significant declines, with trading volume dropping below 1.2 trillion [3] - The current market environment tests investors' patience, as chasing stocks that are rising can lead to losses [3] Investment Strategy - The concept of "patience" is emphasized as crucial for successful investing, likening stock trading to fishing where one must wait for the right moment [3] - A specific investment strategy called "half-position snowball" is introduced, which involves using moving averages for navigation and managing risk through position control [4] - An example is provided where a stock was bought at a lower price during a downturn, leading to a significant profit when the stock rebounded [3][4] Market Signals - Investors are advised to look for specific signals when considering entering or exiting positions, such as volume shrinkage, stabilization candlesticks, and fundamental catalysts for buying, while signs like increased retail investor accounts and media hype indicate selling opportunities [4] - The recent implementation of new regulations on algorithmic trading is expected to reduce short-term market fluctuations, benefiting long-term investors by allowing a return to fundamental analysis [4] International Impact - International developments, such as Trump's threat to impose tariffs on 14 countries, may affect sectors like semiconductors and automotive in the A-share market, but companies with core technologies that can pass on costs may emerge stronger [5] - The importance of patience in holding investments during turbulent times is reiterated, suggesting that true opportunities arise when the market stabilizes [5]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《内外利好共振，成长风格迎来布局 窗口》 - 2025.07.02 宏观研究 破内卷困局，离不开扩内需支撑 核心观点 中央持续强化"反内卷"政策导向，旨在解决名义经济增速低迷和 PPI 持续负增长问题，重点整治低价无序竞争和产能过剩，同时优化 资源配置效率，加速推动产业结构调整，夯实高质量发展基础。 从官方通报"内卷式"竞争行业，结合产能利用率和 PPI 同比增 速来看，煤炭开采和洗选业、化学原料及化学制品、非金属矿物质品、 有色金属冶炼及压延加工业、专用设备、电气机械和器材、通用设备、 汽车、医药或存在"内卷式"竞争问题，预计接下来"反内卷"或将 针对这些重点行业进行展开。 借鉴 2016 年供给侧改革经验，"反内卷"政策推进，或采取"行 政强制+市场调节+技术创新"组合拳。根据 2016 年供给侧结构 ...

就在美国准备对包括印度在内的12个国家下最后通牒时，印度突然宣布，将对美国部分商品加征高达7.25亿美元的报复性关税。 这一举动不仅打乱了特朗普精心布置的谈判节奏，更向全球释放了一个信号，印度不接受最后通牒，更不会任人摆布。 这场突如其来的反击，发生在美国对等关税90天缓冲期即将结束之前，7月9日，也就是两天之后，美国将正式对未签署贸易协议的国家，启动新一轮关税制 裁。 而就在这关键节点，印度以迅雷不及掩耳之势出手，在WTO框架内递交了正式文件，准备迎战美国的极限施压。 当特朗普忙着在社交平台炫耀"90天搞定90国"的关税战绩时，新德里的决策者们正翻着美国非政府组织十年来的资金流水。 今年3月，印度警方突袭8家美索罗斯系机构，意外发现一笔2100万美元的"民主援助"资金神秘蒸发。调查显示，其中1340万美元被用于培训邻国孟加拉国的 政治活动人士，直接导致该国总理在示威浪潮中下台。 这笔账让印度猛然警觉——那些年街头的反政府标语，背后是否也飘着美元油墨味？ 特朗普政府惯常的策略是设定一个明确的"最后期限"，以此施加极限压力。在与印度的贸易谈判中，7月9日就被白宫赋予了这样一层含义。 印度的"反击"战略，已经进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly since May 2025, reaching approximately 300 RMB per gram and 1286 USD per ounce, marking a nearly 40% increase year-to-date and a five-year high [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Platinum Price Increase - Supply-side challenges include unstable electricity supply and frequent strikes in South Africa, the largest producer, leading to a noticeable decline in platinum production [2]. - The discovery of new large platinum mines is becoming increasingly difficult, and existing mines are experiencing declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, further constraining supply [2]. - Although recycled platinum can supplement market supply, growth in recycling is slow due to technological limitations and complex recovery channels [2]. Group 2: Demand-Side Support - The jewelry market is shifting towards platinum due to its relative price advantage over gold, with global demand for platinum jewelry expected to grow by 5% to 66 tons by 2025, and a 15% increase in China to 15 tons [5]. - The green hydrogen industry is emerging as a significant demand driver for platinum, as it is essential for proton exchange membrane electrolyzers in hydrogen production [5]. - The automotive sector is undergoing structural changes, with increased demand for platinum from new plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), despite an overall expected decline in global automotive production [6]. Group 3: Market Perspectives - Optimistic analysts predict a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons in 2025, with supply growth at -0.4% and demand growth at 10.8%, supporting a bullish outlook for platinum prices [9]. - Cautious analysts warn that the current price surge may be driven by speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements, suggesting potential price corrections if speculative interest wanes [10]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Investors should assess their investment goals and risk tolerance, considering short-term trading strategies or long-term holding based on macroeconomic conditions and market dynamics [12]. - Monitoring macroeconomic trends and geopolitical stability in major producing countries is crucial, as these factors can significantly impact platinum supply and prices [13]. - Continuous tracking of industry developments in the automotive and green hydrogen sectors is essential, as shifts in these markets can influence platinum demand and pricing [14].