【博时市场点评12月4日】两市涨跌不一，创业板涨超1% 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数涨跌不一，两市成交缩量至1.56万亿。昨夜公布的美国11月ADP就业人数减3.2万人， 低于预期，这份"小非农"报告是美联储在12月议息会议前的最后一份就业数据，在政府停摆导致官方非 农就业报告推迟发布的情况下，其重要性有所上升。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月再次降息25个 基点的概率接近九成，该数据的疲软进一步强化了这一预期，本月议息会议或呈现降息+鹰派表态的局 面。国内方面，12月将进入重要会议的政策窗口期，但市场对于增量政策预期不高，当前经济处于弱修 复状态，权益市场短期或仍维持震荡格局，配置上建议均衡。 消息面 美国11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅，美联储降息预期进一步升温。最新公布的ADP就业数据显示， 11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率接近90%。 简评：美国"小非农"数据意外转负，或显示美国劳动力市场正在快速降温，加剧了市场对经济前景的担 忧，并显著强化了市场对美联储将于12月议息会议上再 ...

Market Review - In the past five trading days (November 28 to December 4), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.01% and the ChiNext Index up by 1.19%. The CSI 300 rose by 0.69% and the CSI 500 increased by 0.89% [3][9][23]. Policy Insights - On December 3, the Deputy Director of the Central Financial Office emphasized the necessity of accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse to promote high-quality development. Key areas include improving the central bank system, enhancing capital market stability, and optimizing financial institutions and infrastructure [28]. Investment Strategy - The A-share market is entering a phase of oscillation and waiting. The performance of the market will depend on the catalysts from various sectors during this earnings vacuum period. With important meetings approaching, the market is anticipating incremental policy changes, which could lead to a rebound if they exceed expectations. Investors are advised to remain patient and focus on policy and technology themes for future positioning [29]. Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in several sectors: 1. TMT sector and robotics, driven by the expansion of AI capital from domestic and international cloud vendors and the acceleration of domestic computing power replacement [29]. 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals, benefiting from high global demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [29]. 3. Social services and resource products, which may present policy-driven opportunities amid structural adjustments and "anti-involution" initiatives [29]. 4. The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for allocation due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [29].

Core Viewpoints - The market style is expected to rebalance in November, potentially returning to a "dumbbell" structure, as liquidity remains relatively loose and external factors like the Fed's interest rate expectations may fluctuate [1][22]. Economic Data - China's October exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, below the expected 3% growth, while imports grew by 1%. The trade surplus was $90.07 billion, slightly down from the previous month's $90.45 billion. For the first ten months of 2025, total trade value reached $520.46 billion, a 2.7% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The decline in exports is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a slowing global economy, compounded by increased tariffs from the U.S. [3]. Equity Market Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the global macro environment remains favorable for risk assets, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing from the Fed, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [5]. - CITIC Securities suggests that resource products may become a new investment focus due to global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps, highlighting strategic resources like rare earths and lithium as having long-term investment value [6]. - China Europe Fund emphasizes the importance of cyclical stocks and technology resonance, suggesting that the market's current valuation recovery is nearly complete, with future growth driven by earnings [7]. Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlights that 2026 will be a critical year for the recovery of real estate companies' balance sheets, with a potential bottoming out of profits. The residential market shows signs of stabilization, and companies with quality investment properties are expected to perform well [11]. - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the liquor industry is undergoing a period of accelerated adjustment, with inventory clearing expected to lead to a rebound in stock prices [12]. - Penghua Fund anticipates that the domestic economy will seek balance between policy support and structural optimization over the next two to three years, favoring high-quality dividend assets [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities recommends a focus on short-term credit bonds for defensive strategies, as overall credit demand is weakening [18]. - CICC predicts that monetary policy will accelerate easing due to ongoing export pressures, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [19]. - Bosera Fund indicates that domestic financial policies are favorable for the bond market, enhancing supply-demand dynamics [20].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.88% today, with a trading volume of 880.38 million shares and a transaction value of 1,337.799 billion yuan, an increase of 16.38% compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 2,715 stocks increased in value, with 58 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,555 stocks declined, including 12 hitting the daily limit down [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 2.81%, with a transaction value of 72.508 billion yuan, led by Longda Co., which rose by 15.04% [1] - Electric equipment: increased by 2.04%, with a transaction value of 224.855 billion yuan, led by Huasheng Lithium Electric, which rose by 19.87% [1] - Electronics: increased by 1.85%, with a transaction value of 222.037 billion yuan, led by Changguang Huaxin, which rose by 20.00% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Media: decreased by 1.46%, with a transaction value of 356.10 million yuan, led by Guangdong Media, which fell by 9.96% [1] - Social services: decreased by 1.03%, with a transaction value of 104.98 million yuan, led by Dalian Shengya, which fell by 9.99% [1] - Beauty and personal care: decreased by 0.79%, with a transaction value of 25.59 million yuan, led by Beitaini, which fell by 4.33% [1]

Core Insights - The Inclusive Finance Prosperity Index for September reached 49.50 points, an increase of 0.32 points from August, indicating improvements in both operational and financing dimensions [1] - The financing prosperity index stood at 54.93 points, up 0.71 points from August, reflecting effective release of corporate financing demand and a stable decline in financing costs [1] - The total social financing stock at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with RMB loans to the real economy at 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [1] Financing Dimension - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in September was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points from the same period last year, indicating a continued low-cost financing environment [1] - The growth rates for inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector were 12.2% and 8.2% respectively, both exceeding the growth rate of other loans [1] Operational Dimension - The operational prosperity index for September was 48.44 points, an increase of 0.24 points from August, driven by a sustained recovery in consumer demand and improved performance of small and micro enterprises [2] - The operational vitality index rose by 0.29 points in September, becoming a key driver for the increase in the operational prosperity index, as companies accelerated production and optimized service processes [2] Industry Trends - Among nine major industries, six showed an increase in operational prosperity, particularly in wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, and transportation services, while the real estate and construction industries experienced declines [2] - The industrial economy demonstrated steady growth, with advancements in artificial intelligence and modern service industries contributing to the overall economic development [2] Regional Insights - The operational prosperity index across seven major regions showed five increases and two decreases, with notable improvements in East China, South China, Central China, Northwest, and Southwest regions [2] - The Northeast and North China regions experienced declines in their operational prosperity indices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36% on October 21, with the total margin trading balance reaching 24,442.71 billion yuan, an increase of 142.73 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Margin Trading Overview - As of October 21, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai market was 12,402.01 billion yuan, up by 65.77 billion yuan; in the Shenzhen market, it was 11,964.58 billion yuan, increasing by 75.48 billion yuan; and in the Beijing Stock Exchange, it was 76.12 billion yuan, up by 1.47 billion yuan [1] - The total margin trading balance across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets combined was 24,442.71 billion yuan, reflecting a total increase of 142.73 billion yuan [1] Industry Analysis - Among the industries tracked by Shenwan, 22 sectors saw an increase in margin trading balances, with the electronics sector leading, which increased by 52.63 billion yuan; followed by the communication and non-bank financial sectors, which increased by 23.14 billion yuan and 14.76 billion yuan, respectively [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,895 stocks experienced an increase in margin trading balances, accounting for 50.75% of the total; 325 stocks had an increase exceeding 5% [1] - The stock with the highest increase in margin trading balance was Hunan Tianyan, with a latest balance of 11.83 million yuan, reflecting a 301.70% increase from the previous trading day; its stock price rose by 1.52% [1] - Other notable stocks with significant increases in margin trading balances included Innovation Medical and Tianfu Cultural Tourism, with increases of 121.42% and 102.54%, respectively [1] Top Gainers and Losers - Among the top 20 stocks with the highest increase in margin trading balances, the average price increase was 4.64%; leading gainers included Hengli Drill Tools, Deshi Co., and Yuanjie Technology, with increases of 22.66%, 20.02%, and 20.00%, respectively [2] - Conversely, the stocks with the largest declines in margin trading balances included Micro Innovation Optoelectronics, with a decrease of 35.23%, followed by Changjiang Energy Science and Huicheng Vacuum, with declines of 28.34% and 25.42%, respectively [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Views - From the perspective of cumulative returns this year, the three best - performing indices are the Micro - cap Index (+65.84%), the ChiNext Index (+47.16%), and the STAR 50 Index (+46.71%), while the three weakest are the CSI Dividend (-2.27%), the Shanghai Composite Index (+14.21%), and the CSI 300 (+15.63%) [10][12]. - Looking ahead, recent option sentiment dimensions indicate a bearish sentiment for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500, and combined with factors such as institutional fund withdrawals, it may suggest further market adjustments. Investors need to manage risks in the short - term [10]. - In terms of positions, the overall stock long - only strategy should maintain a moderately low position, and the neutral strategy should further reduce the position to a moderately low level before the holiday [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Equity Market Review - **Factor Calendar Overview**: This week, most of the equity market rose. The CSI A500 rose 1.19%, the CSI 300 rose 1.07%, the CSI 500 rose 0.98%, the CSI All - Share rose 0.21%, the CSI Dividend fell 0.25%, the CSI 1000 fell 0.55%, and the CSI 2000 fell 1.79%. The best - performing Barra style factors were size, growth, and momentum, with returns of 0.61%, 0.56%, and 0.18% respectively, while the worst were value, BETA, and residual volatility, with returns of -0.41%, -0.61%, and -1.17% respectively [14][15]. - **Main Broad - based Index Review**: - **Short - term Market Activity**: It is at a moderately high level but shows a marginal decline. The CSI All - Share's daily average trading volume was 2.26 trillion yuan. The trading volume proportions of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 increased marginally, while those of the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, and others decreased marginally [20][22]. - **Medium - term Market Activity**: It is at a moderately high level. The CSI All - Share's 20 - day rolling average daily trading volume was 2.39 trillion yuan. The trading volume proportions of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 increased marginally, while those of the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, and others decreased marginally [23][25]. - **Volatility**: Most broad - based indices rose, and volatility generally declined. For example, the CSI 500's volatility was 23.63% (82.41% quantile), with a marginal weekly decline of 0.79% [17][19]. - **Equity Industry Index Review**: This week, 19.4% of industries had positive returns, with the power equipment sector leading. The top three industries in terms of weekly returns were power equipment (3.86%), non - ferrous metals (3.52%), and electronics (3.51%), while the bottom three were retail (-4.32%), comprehensive (-4.61%), and social services (-5.92%) [26]. - **Equity Style Factor Review**: - **Barra Style Factors**: The size, growth, and momentum factors performed well, with returns of 0.61%, 0.56%, and 0.18% respectively, while the value, BETA, and residual volatility factors performed poorly, with returns of -0.41%, -0.61%, and -1.17% respectively [30]. - **Giant Tide Style Indices**: Most of them rose. The top three indices in terms of returns were large - cap growth (2.48%), mid - cap growth (2.30%), and small - cap growth (2.03%), while the bottom three were mid - cap value (0.56%), large - cap value (-0.34%), and small - cap value (-0.85%) [34]. - **Stock Index Futures Market Review**: - **Premium Convergence and Volatility**: The premium of IC, IF, and IM contracts converged, and volatility generally declined [36][38]. - **Impact on Neutral Products**: From the perspective of quarterly - contract hedging, the estimated average returns of neutral products affected by the hedging of IF, IC, and IM contracts were -0.280%, -0.270%, and -0.320% respectively [39]. - **Options Market Review**: This week, implied volatility generally declined, which is expected to be unfavorable for option - buying and arbitrage strategies. The top three products with the highest implied volatility were the E Fund STAR 50 ETF (50.20%), the Huaxia STAR 50 ETF (49.84%), and the E Fund ChiNext ETF (42.33%), while the bottom three were the CSI 300 Index (19.51%), the SSE 50 Index (19.10%), and the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (18.48%) [41][42]. 2. Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: Overall, it is unfavorable for intraday Alpha accumulation. Although liquidity slightly increased and volatility slightly decreased, the net capital outflow was 516 billion yuan per day this week [44][49]. - **Trading - based Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: Overall, it is unfavorable for trading - based Alpha accumulation. Although trading volume and turnover rate are at high levels and stock differentiation is in a high - level range, the number of stocks outperforming the benchmark index is low and shows a marginal decline [50][55]. - **Holding - based Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: Overall, it is unfavorable for holding - based Alpha accumulation. Although stock liquidity is at a high level, factors such as market style, the proportion of stocks outperforming the index, and factor rotation speed have a negative impact [58][74]. - **Hedging Environment for Neutral Strategies**: The basis spread fluctuation is in a moderately high - level range, posing certain challenges to cost control. The IF, IC, and IM basis spreads all converged this week [75][80]. 3. Future Strategy Research and Judgment - **Return Performance**: From the 20 - day rolling returns, the relative returns of the CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and CSI 500 to the CSI 300 are in the normal range, and the return of the CSI 300 is also in the normal range [84]. - **Derivatives Option Sentiment**: The option sentiment dimension shows that the sentiment of the CSI 1000 is stable, while the CSI 300 and CSI 500 are bearish [88]. - **Derivatives Futures Sentiment**: The futures sentiment dimension shows that the basis spreads of IC, IF, and IM all converged, with a differentiated overall sentiment [92]. - **Risk Preference**: As of September 25, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.43 trillion yuan, at a high - level range in the past three years, indicating a high risk preference [95]. - **Trading Heat**: The trading heat of the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, as well as the market trading volume, are at different quantile levels [97]. - **Style Attention Multiple**: The CSI 1000 is in the normal range, the CSI 500 is in the high - level range, and the CSI 2000 is in the extremely low - level range [100]. - **Profit Spread**: The profit spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and CSI 300 are in the low or extremely low - level ranges [103]. - **Dividend Spread**: The dividend spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and CSI 300 are in the normal range [105]. - **Trading Congestion**: The trading heat of the TMT sector is in the high - level range, the trading heat of the micro - cap sector is in the normal range, and the market trading volume is in the extremely high - level range [111].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations. This marks the first rate cut in nine months since December 2024 [1] - Historically, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have a higher probability of declining on the day of a rate cut, with 18 out of 32 instances resulting in a drop. The Nasdaq has shown mixed results [1] - Following the Fed's rate cuts, A-shares typically experience declines on the next trading day, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 17 times out of 31, averaging a decline of 0.25% [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry performance post-rate cut, only the oil and petrochemical sector showed a positive average increase of 0.11%, while other sectors like food and beverage, construction materials, and electronics performed poorly with average declines exceeding 0.4% [1] - Precious metals, represented by London gold, have shown significant increases during rate cut cycles, with a notable rise of 48.94% from September 18, 2024, to the present. In contrast, industrial metals like LME copper and energy commodities like WTI crude oil have primarily declined [1] - The dollar index generally trends downward or remains low during rate cut cycles, consistent with historical patterns observed since 2000 [1]

Core Insights - Promoting legal social insurance contributions by enterprises is a crucial aspect of the "anti-involution" policy, aimed at establishing a unified national market and returning factor prices to reasonable levels, which will help raise labor factor prices [2][5] - The short-term policies are accelerating, with new judicial interpretations coming into effect on September 1, 2025, which will invalidate any agreements that exempt employers from social insurance contributions [2][5] Quantitative Analysis - The report conducted quantitative assessments on the potential impact of promoting legal social insurance contributions on A-shares, presenting four scenarios: - **Scenario 1**: If all listed companies' average contribution base exceeds the minimum provincial base for 2024, 485 companies would need to make a back payment of 10.8 billion yuan, representing 0.02% of 2024 revenue and 0.21% of profit [10][11][13] - **Scenario 2**: If the average contribution base exceeds the average provincial base, 1,493 companies would need to back pay 25.7 billion yuan, accounting for 0.04% of revenue and 0.49% of profit [10][11][13] - **Scenario 3**: If the average contribution base exceeds the actual national average for 2023, 3,002 companies would need to back pay 88.1 billion yuan, which is 0.12% of revenue and 1.68% of profit [10][14] - **Scenario 4**: If the average contribution base exceeds the average wage of regulated enterprises in 2023, 3,671 companies would need to back pay 165.7 billion yuan, representing 0.23% of revenue and 3.16% of profit [10][14] Industry Impact - Industries with a high potential for back payments, where the measurement error is controllable, include environmental protection, textile and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and social services [16][17]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to close at 3605.73 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.21% to 11193.06 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains of 1.17% and 1.50%, closing at 1032.84 points and 2345.37 points respectively [1]. - A total of 4391 stocks rose, while 911 stocks fell, and 113 stocks remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 18447 billion yuan, a decrease of 198.94 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, telecommunications, and public utilities experienced gains today. The leading sectors included beauty and personal care, non-ferrous metals, steel, retail, non-bank financials, and social services [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included Hainan Free Trade Port, selected rare metals, rare earths, rare earth permanent magnets, vaccines, lithium mines, small metals, stock trading software, cobalt mines, duty-free shops, lithium extraction from salt lakes, selected medical services, lithium battery cathodes, and stem cells [1].