证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com "三驾马车"承压，主要经济指标走弱 核心观点：从 10 月数据上看，支撑 GDP 的"三驾马车"消费、投资和净出口压力 增大，短期经济增长或面临一定的挑战，考虑到今年前三季度经济表现较好，完成 25 年总量+5%的经济增长目标压力不大。10 月社零同比+2.9%，增速连续五个月回 落。10 月进出口总值同比较上月大幅下滑，出口同比-0.8%，较上月-9.2pct，对欧 盟出口较上月大幅下降 13.3pct。1-10 月固投完成额负增长（yoy-1.7%）、基建（不 含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，下同）累计同比亦负增长（yoy-0.1%）与 房地产开发投资持续探底（yoy-14.7%）凸显传统增长模式乏力。未来半年政策利 率下调与增量工具落地或成关键支撑 ...

央视网消息：记者从商务部了解到，10月份，我国消费市场保持平稳增长态势，消费潜力持续释放。 服务消费增势良好。10月份，受假期出行需求拉动，旅游咨询租赁服务、交通出行服务、文体休闲服务零售额均保持10%以上较快 增长。餐饮收入增长3.8%，增速比9月份加快2.9个百分点。入境游持续火热，国庆中秋假期入境外国人75.1万人次，增长19.8%。 商品消费平稳增长。10月份，商品零售额增长2.8%，以旧换新相关商品销售保持较快增长。其中，限额以上单位通讯器材、文化办 公用品、家具零售额分别增长23.2%、13.5%和9.6%。升级类商品消费需求旺盛，其中，金银珠宝、体育娱乐用品、化妆品零售额分 别增长37.6%、10.1%和9.6%。 此外，乡村消费快于城镇，县域消费持续扩容，下沉市场活力十足。新型消费较快增长，据商务部商务大数据，10月份，重点监测 平台智能健康设备销售额增长超两成，智能穿戴设备销售额增长约4%，部分一级能效家电销售额增长超10%，有机食品销售额增长 超8%。 ...

据该负责人介绍，10月，商品零售额增长2.8%，以旧换新相关商品销售保持较快增长，其中限额以上 单位通讯器材、文化办公用品、家具零售额分别增长23.2%、13.5%和9.6%。基本生活类商品消费增长 较快，其中粮油食品、服装鞋帽零售额分别增长9.1%和6.3%。升级类商品消费需求旺盛，其中金银珠 宝、体育娱乐用品、化妆品零售额分别增长37.6%、10.1%和9.6%。(鲍仁) 据国家统计局数据，当月社会消费品零售总额4.63万亿元，同比(下同)增长2.9%。1—10月，社会消费品 零售总额41.2万亿元，增长4.3%，增速比去年同期高0.8个百分点。 本报讯商务部消费促进司负责人19日表示，10月在国庆中秋假期带动下，国内消费市场保持平稳增长态 势，消费潜力持续释放。 ...

人民财讯11月19日电，商务部消费促进司负责人谈2025年10月我国消费市场情况。10月份，在国庆中秋 假期带动下，消费市场保持平稳增长态势，消费潜力持续释放。 一是商品消费平稳增长。10月份，商品零售额增长2.8%，以旧换新相关商品销售保持较快增长，其中 限额以上单位通讯器材、文化办公用品、家具零售额分别增长23.2%、13.5%和9.6%。 二是服务消费增势良好。1—10月份，服务零售额同比增长5.3%，增速比前三季度加快0.1个百分点，比 商品零售额快0.9个百分点。 三是新型消费较快增长。据商务部商务大数据，10月份，重点监测平台智能健康设备销售额增长超两 成，智能穿戴设备销售额增长约4%，部分一级能效家电销售额增长超10%，有机食品销售额增长超 8%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域消费持续扩容，下沉市场活力十足。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows increasing downward pressure, with fixed asset investment declining year-on-year and external demand turning negative, indicating potential negative impacts on the stock market [1][3] - Industrial production growth has dropped below 5%, with high-tech industries experiencing a decline in prosperity, although high-end, intelligent, and green industries, as well as shipbuilding, aerospace, and automotive manufacturing, remain resilient [1][4] Key Economic Indicators - Retail sales of consumer goods are declining due to weakened demand, particularly in home appliances, furniture, and automotive sectors, while communication equipment and cosmetics show growth [1][6] - Investment across various sectors is weakening, with significant declines in real estate new starts and sales area, and housing prices experiencing a larger month-on-month drop [1][8] - Infrastructure investment has decreased more than expected, influenced by debt resolution, insufficient project reserves, and local government debt constraints, although digital infrastructure and energy security projects may provide some support [1][8] Sector-Specific Insights - Investment demand in the chemical, food, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries has contracted, but the core logic of industrial upgrading remains intact [1][9] - Manufacturing investment shows positive signals, particularly in computer electronics and electrical machinery, with a need to observe the sustainability of this recovery and its impact on overall investment [1][10] Consumer Behavior and Employment - National dining consumption improved in October due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall retail sales continue to decline [1][6] - Despite weak goods consumption, there are positive signs of recovery in service consumption, supported by policy measures [1][6] Challenges and Policy Responses - The economy faces challenges with internal demand slowing and external demand declining, which may impact the fourth quarter's economic performance [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that as economic downturns and employment pressures rise, there will be an increase in counter-cyclical policies, with potential for new policy deployments [1][13] Market Dynamics - The capital market's resilience may diverge from the slowing economic momentum, reflecting long-term economic logic rather than short-term fluctuations [1][14] - Structural changes in the economy, particularly in the technology innovation sector, are expected to drive asset revaluation, suggesting a need for patience regarding short-term fundamental fluctuations [1][15]

Core Insights - China's economy continues to show resilience and potential, maintaining a stable growth trajectory despite global economic challenges [1][2] - Key economic indicators remain within a reasonable range, supporting the achievement of annual economic development goals [1] Production Sector - Industrial production remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size [1] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors outperformed overall industrial growth, with increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively [1] - New product output is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in production of new energy vehicles (19.3%), industrial robots (17.9%), and 3D printing equipment (30.8%) [1] Consumption Sector - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in the consumer market [1] - Notably, consumption upgrade products are growing rapidly, with retail sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies increasing by 23.2% and 13.5% respectively [1] - Service retail sales accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% from January to October, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the first three quarters [1] Investment Structure - Investment structure is showing positive changes, with high-tech industry investment maintaining rapid growth, particularly in information services (32.7%) and aerospace manufacturing (19.7%) [2] - These trends indicate a solid move towards high-quality development and a more pronounced innovation-driven growth characteristic [2] Policy Support - The Chinese government has introduced new policy tools worth 500 billion yuan to enhance local government financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [2] - Measures have been implemented to further invigorate private investment, contributing to improving corporate performance and supporting favorable economic conditions [2] Future Outlook - The 20th National Congress has outlined a development blueprint for the next five years, presenting numerous opportunities for high-quality economic growth [2] - As consumer potential is gradually released and industrial upgrades accelerate, the economy is expected to gain sustained momentum [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts to boost consumption across various regions and sectors in China, with a focus on initiatives such as trade-in programs for consumer goods and the promotion of digital and service consumption [1][6] - In October, retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while cosmetics retail sales grew by 9.6%, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards upgraded experiences and products [3][4] - The trade-in policy for consumer goods has shown significant effects, with retail sales of communication equipment rising by 23.2% and cultural office supplies by 13.5% in October, both outpacing the overall retail sales growth [4] Group 2 - Service consumption has also seen positive growth, with retail sales accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous months, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday effects [5] - Retail sales in the tourism, information services, and cultural and recreational services categories maintained a growth rate of nearly 10% in October, reflecting strong consumer demand in these sectors [5]

Core Insights - The national economy is maintaining overall stability and progress, with industrial value-added growth of 4.9% year-on-year in October and retail sales of consumer goods reaching 46,291 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year [1][2] Economic Performance - Industrial production remains stable, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing, which increased by 8%, contributing positively to overall industrial growth [2] - The accommodation and catering industry saw a production index increase of 3.9% year-on-year, boosted by the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expanding, with notable growth in communication equipment (23.2%) and cultural office supplies (13.5%) [2] New Demand and Investment - New demands from the digital economy and platform economy are expanding, supporting stable economic operations [4] - Investment in high-tech sectors is growing rapidly, particularly in new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence [4][5] - The manufacturing value-added of the digital industry increased by 9.5% year-on-year from January to October, with smart equipment and electronic components growing by 11.1% and 12.3%, respectively [5] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to achieve its annual targets due to favorable conditions, including the continuous release of demand potential and the strengthening of domestic and international market cycles [6][7] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools aims to enhance local government financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [7] - Recent economic policies are characterized by moderate efforts to ensure the achievement of annual economic and social development goals while promoting growth and high-quality development [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The economy is undergoing a transformation from traditional real estate and infrastructure to emerging industries, high - end manufacturing, and service consumption [1][7]. - For the bond market, due to the diminishing effect of traditional drivers (real estate and infrastructure), the potential economic growth rate is declining. New drivers are still being cultivated and cannot fully offset the decline of traditional sectors. In the short term, with inflation under control and the central bank's supportive monetary policy, the risk of significant bond market adjustment is relatively controllable, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.8% [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 10 - month Economic Data: Total Slowdown and Kinetic Energy Switch - **Economic Growth Characteristics**: In October 2025, the macro - economy featured "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The endogenous economic growth momentum needs to be restored [1][7]. - **Structural Highlights**: - **Industrial Upgrade**: From January to October 2025, the added value of above - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.5% year - on - year, accounting for 36.1% of above - scale industries and contributing 58.7% to the growth of above - scale industrial added value [1][7]. - **High - tech Investment**: Investment in high - tech fields such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence expanded rapidly. From January to October, investment in the aviation, spacecraft, and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.7% year - on - year, and investment in the information service industry increased by 32.7%. After excluding real estate development investment, national fixed - asset investment and private investment turned positive, with growth rates of 1.7% and 0.2% respectively [1][8]. - **New Market Demand**: From January to October, online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year. Upgraded consumer goods sold well, and service retail sales increased by 5.3%. Retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services, as well as tourism consulting and leasing services, maintained double - digit growth [1][8]. 3.2 Industrial Production Remained Stable, with High - end Manufacturing Still Prominent - **Overall Industrial Production**: In October, the added value of above - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a 1.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative growth was 6.1%. The service production index in October increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a 1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - **Industry - Specific Performance**: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of the automobile and transportation equipment industries rebounded significantly compared to the previous month, while those of the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous metal processing industries declined significantly [12]. - **New Kinetic Energy**: The upgrading of the manufacturing industry continued to drive industrial resilience. In October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points faster than the overall above - scale industrial added value respectively. The output of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased rapidly [13]. 3.3 Consumption Recovery was Moderate, with Service Consumption Better than Goods - **Overall Consumption**: In October, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed slightly to 2.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Among them, commodity retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, a 2.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [16]. - **Consumption Structure**: Upgraded consumption performed well, and service consumption maintained resilience. In October, rural consumption grew by 4.1%, faster than urban consumption. However, the transmission of consumption policies to end - demand needs further observation due to the constraints of income expectations and housing price wealth effects on consumption willingness [21][23]. 3.4 Investment Growth Continued to Decline, with Manufacturing Standing Out - **Overall Investment**: From January to October, fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The investment structure showed "stable manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag", with only manufacturing investment maintaining positive growth [24]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to October, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year. Equipment purchase investment remained resilient, with a 13% year - on - year increase from January to October, 14.7 percentage points higher than total investment. However, under the guidance of the "anti - involution" policy, the investment motivation of some enterprises may decline in the short term [26]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, with a further decline in growth. Traditional infrastructure construction slowed down, and the construction industry's prosperity level declined. In addition, the issuance of new special bonds in October was slow, and the capital availability of some projects might not meet expectations [27]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, with an increasing negative impact. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". Follow - up real estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented [28].

Economic Overview - In October, major economic indicators in China fell short of market expectations, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year (expected 5.2%) and the service production index increasing by 4.6% [1][6] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative decline of 1.7% year-on-year (expected -0.7%), with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates at 1.5% and 2.7% respectively, both below expectations [1][6] Consumption - Retail sales growth was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous month, with significant structural changes observed [7] - Durable goods consumption weakened, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with automotive sales down 6.6% year-on-year [7] - Service consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector, showed improvement, with restaurant service consumption growth rising to 3.8% [7][8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment declined by 1.7% in October, with significant drops in real estate investment at -14.7% and manufacturing investment at -6.7% [11][14] - Real estate sales saw a notable decrease, with sales area and amount down 18.8% and 24.3% respectively [11] - Infrastructure investment continued to contract, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [12] Trade - Exports in October saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February 2025 [16] - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.0%, indicating weak domestic demand [19] Supply Side - Industrial production growth slowed, with the industrial added value increasing by only 4.9%, below market expectations [22] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating contraction for the first time since April [22] Inflation - CPI turned positive at 0.2%, the highest since February, while core CPI inflation rose to 1.2% [23][24] - PPI showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1% [24] Forward Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased, with multiple incremental policies expected to take effect in November and December to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investment [27]