「2025.11.28」 螺纹钢市场周报 多空博弈 螺纹期价震荡偏强 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至11月28日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3110（+53），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3290（+40）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量下调。206.08（-1.88），同比（-21.8）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需227.94（-2.85），（同比+2.59）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存531.48（-21.86），（同比+83.84）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.06%，环比上周减少2.60个百分点，同比去年减少16.89个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2 ...

格隆汇11月28日丨河钢股份(000709.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司旗下河北河钢材料技术研究院有 限公司主要参与了可控核聚变装置有关材料的研发，河钢材料院是河钢股份的控股子公司。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's industrial profit data shows that in October, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, but the profit in the first 10 months increased by 1.9% year - on - year. Among the three major sectors, the mining industry decreased by 27.8%, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 9.5% in the first 10 months [7]. - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the copper market will be in a state of supply shortage, with a high premium for refined copper. The long - term trading strategy for copper is mainly long - position [8][9]. - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support [10]. - After the listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, there are still risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market structure, and the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the short - term due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine war situation [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. 3.1.2 Copper - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the long - term consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the global copper market will have a supply shortage of 150,000 tons. The long - term trading strategy is mainly long - position. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong view [8][9][25]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Zinc is in a state of weak shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][26]. 3.1.4 Lead - The inventory of lead has decreased, which supports the price. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][30]. 3.1.5 Tin - The supply of tin has been disturbed again. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][32]. 3.1.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum is in a state of range - bound shock; alumina rebounds from a low level; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][36]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - The inventory accumulation rhythm of nickel has slowed down, and it is affected by macro and news in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are under pressure and fluctuate at a low level, but the downward space is limited. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][39]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - With the gradual resumption of production by large manufacturers and the less - than - expected inventory reduction, the price of carbonate lithium is under pressure. The trend strength is - 2, indicating a very bearish view [15][44]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon mainly fluctuates within a range. Polysilicon requires attention to the position of the 2512 contract. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is - 1 (weakly bearish) [15][47][48]. 3.1.10 Iron Ore - The downstream demand space for iron ore is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a weakly bearish view [15][51]. 3.1.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][53][54]. 3.1.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon fluctuates widely due to market sentiment disturbances, and silicomanganese fluctuates widely due to the firm price of ore. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][58]. 3.1.13 Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][62]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Cotton - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis of spot cotton [10][15][18]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Other Oils - Palm oil has a technical rebound due to the weakening of high - yield marginal trading. Soybean oil mainly fluctuates within a range [18]. 3.2.3 Corn - Corn is in a state of shock and upward trend [18]. 3.2.4 Sugar - Sugar is in a state of range consolidation [18]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The increase in the number of culled hens provides expected support for egg prices [18]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The limit on positions drives the divergence between the near - term futures and spot prices of live pigs [18]. 3.2.7 Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the spot price of peanuts [18]. 3.3 Others 3.3.1 Logs - Logs are in a state of weak shock [18][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 27, the JM2601 contract closed at 1071.0, down 0.19%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1420, equivalent to 1200 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines declined this period, and the coking coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The overall inventory is at a moderate level with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 27, the J2601 contract closed at 1607.0, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. The macro - situation: on November 24, South Korea announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium and heavy plates and alloy steel hot - rolled thick plates for 5 years. Fundamentally, in terms of demand, the pig iron output this period was 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country this period was 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1071.00 yuan/ton, down 13.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1607.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 862195.00 lots, down 16796.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 48293.00 lots, down 1586.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 112785.00 lots, down 10341.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 274.00 lots, up 101.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 94.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 144.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 1008.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 162.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1670.00 yuan/ton, down 110.00 yuan; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 278.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 539.00 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.60 million tons per day, down 1.00 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 305.30 million tons per week, up 2.50 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.36%, down 0.01%; raw coal output: 40675.00 million tons per month, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4174.00 million tons per month, down 426.00 million tons; the average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 191.30 million tons, down 2.10 million tons [2]. - The imported coking coal inventory of 16 ports: 456.90 million tons per week, down 31.30 million tons; the coke inventory of 18 ports: 253.40 million tons per week, down 6.10 million tons [2]. - The total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1038.19 million tons per week, down 30.78 million tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 65.29 million tons per week, up 7.14 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 797.08 million tons per week, up 6.91 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 622.34 million tons per week, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.97 days per week, up 0.10 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.05 days per week, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 1059.32 million tons per month, down 33.04 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 73.00 million tons per month, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 3975.92 million tons per month, up 279.06 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan; coke output: 4189.60 million tons per month, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7199.70 million tons per month, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - The Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, said that the world economy is undergoing profound changes beyond the impact of US tariffs, and Europe must start to seek growth drivers locally as its traditional sources of income are drying up [2]. - According to Bloomberg News, the Pentagon believes that Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD should be included in the list of enterprises assisting the Chinese military [2]. - From January to October, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan [2]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption", aiming to form 3 trillion - level and 100 - billion - level consumer sectors by 2027 [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,099.00 | -7↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1200700 | -100338↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -72292 | -25719↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -17 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 59519 | -7773↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 205 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,364 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,470.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 3 | | 铜：LME现货走强，驱动价格 | 5 | | 锌：偏弱震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：等待指引 | 12 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：市场情绪向好，高位震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注盘面下方支撑 | 18 | | 多晶硅：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：仓单大量注册，注意持仓风险 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：短期 ...

螺纹钢、热卷产业风险管理日报 2025/11/25 陈敏涛 投资咨询证号：Z0022731 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 螺纹价格区间预测 | | 01合约区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 波动率百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 2900-3300 | 11.25% | 14.7% | | 热卷 | 3100-3500 | 9.34% | 3.80% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 螺纹风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | | | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空螺纹或是热卷期货来锁定 | RB2601 | 卖出 | 30% | 3200-325 0 3350-340 | | | | | 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月24日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 161 ...

Economic Overview - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption remains strong, benefiting from tax incentives and subsidies, while textile and film consumption is weak[7] - Real estate sales and land market show signs of fatigue, with infrastructure special bonds fully issued but project progress lagging[7] - Exports to South Korea are recovering, while import demand weakens post shopping festival[7] Market Performance - Major global asset prices have declined, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 5.1%, the largest decline among major indices[9] - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.9%[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 4.06%[9] Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000[12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%[12] - Federal Reserve officials exhibit significant internal disagreement regarding future monetary policy direction[8] Investment Strategies - ETF inflows have increased significantly to 503 billion, while foreign and financing funds have seen outflows[15] - The market's trading activity has decreased, with average daily turnover dropping to 1.9 trillion[14] - The risk appetite remains low, with the overall market sentiment declining[14] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with recommendations for investments in internet and computing sectors[35] - The financial sector is poised for recovery, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks[35] - Consumer stocks are seen as undervalued, with potential growth in food and beverage sectors[35]

焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 关注前低支撑 双焦震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、交易数据 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3057 | 4 | 0.13 | 6165476 | 2619983 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 3270 | 14 | 0.43 ...