据券商中国报道，在美国证监会（SEC）网站上最新披露的持仓报告（1 3F）显示，今年一季度， "股神"巴菲特旗下 伯克希尔大笔卖出银行股，不过对苹果公司的持仓未变。 伯克希尔一季度最大的买入标的是啤酒巨头星座集团（Co n st e ll a ti o n Br a n d s），增持幅度超过11 3%，持股数量达到 1 2 0 1万股。 值得注意的是，上述文件显示，伯克希尔还获得了美国证监会的许可，对一项或多项持股情况保密。 大幅减持银行股 周四，根据一份提交给美国证监会的1 3F文件，伯克希尔在一季度清仓了在花旗集团的头寸（1 4 6 4万股）。文件还显 示，该公司出售了4 8 6 6万股美国银行股票，减持比例超过7%。截至3月3 1日，伯克希尔仍持有超过6 . 3 1 5亿股美国银 行股票。伯克希尔还减持了3 0万股第一资本金融公司股票，减持比例约为4%。 图\上海证券报 一季度，伯克希尔没有减持苹果公司的股票。截至3月3 1日，伯克希尔仍持有约3亿股苹果公司股票，持股市值为6 6 6 亿美元，约占伯克希尔总股票投资组合的2 5%。苹果公司仍是伯克希尔最大的单一持仓。伯克希尔此前曾大幅减持苹 果股份，但 ...

根据周四提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的监管文件，"股神"巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦一季度清 仓花旗银行（Citigroup），减持美国银行（Bank of America）和第一资本金融公司（Capital One Financial Corp.）的部分持股，主要持仓股依旧是苹果（Apple）、美国运通（American Express）、可 口可乐（Coca Cola）、美银、雪佛龙（Chevron）。 根据13F文件，伯克希尔出售了14,639,502股花旗集团股票；文件还显示，该公司出售了48,660,056股美 国银行股票，减持比例超过7%；截至3月31日，伯克希尔仍持有超过6.315亿股美国银行股票。伯克希 尔还减持了30万股第一资本金融公司股票，减持比例约为4%。 另外，伯克希尔在第一季度清仓了其持有的Nu Holdings股份，后者运营着巴西数字银行Nubank，清仓 规模为4000万股。伯克希尔将其在Liberty Formula One的投资削减了约一半，降至350万股。 目前，苹果公司仍是伯克希尔最大的单一持仓，持有3亿股，占其整个股票投资组合约25%。虽然伯克 希尔此前已大幅削减了苹 ...

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, sold significant positions in bank stocks during Q1, including liquidating 14.63 million shares of Citigroup and reducing its stake in Bank of America by 4.866 million shares [1] - The company maintained its position in Apple, holding 300 million shares unchanged [1] - Berkshire increased its investment in Constellation Brands by 6.38 million shares, representing a 113.5% increase, and also added 760,000 shares of Occidental Petroleum and 860,000 shares of Pool Corporation [1] Group 2 - Notably, Berkshire did not establish any new positions in stocks during the first quarter [1]

Group 1 - Major investment banks Citigroup and JPMorgan have made bold predictions that the worst-performing sectors of the U.S. stock market are expected to rebound in the short term [1] - Citigroup's U.S. equity trading strategy head Stuart Kaiser and JPMorgan's trading team are particularly optimistic about small-cap stocks, technology hardware, and homebuilders, which have lagged behind the S&P 500 in the recent market rally [1] - Kaiser noted that stocks of companies with weaker financial conditions are also worth attention in the current environment [1] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "catch-up" is driving traders and speculative buyers who missed the recent rebound to seek opportunities in lagging sectors before potential new tariffs [2] - Kaiser indicated that systematic traders and discretionary investors will flood into the market as they have not fully captured the current rebound, leading to significant buying in underperforming sectors [3] - Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have significantly reduced their exposure to stocks in recent weeks, creating conditions for their return to the market following the S&P 500's rise [3] Group 3 - There is an opportunity for short-squeeze as traders close their short positions in the Russell 2000 index, which may further drive up small-cap stocks in the coming weeks [4] - JPMorgan's global market intelligence head Andrew Tyler pointed out that buying into battered sectors like retailers or discretionary consumer goods through derivatives could trigger a short squeeze in the short term [4] - Any short squeeze could lead to mid-cap and small-cap companies outperforming the broader market [4] Group 4 - Long-term investors remain cautious about small-cap stocks and financially weaker companies due to high interest rates and slowing economic growth [5] - The global trade situation remains uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies, leading to a reluctance to invest in small-cap stocks or hold high-risk market positions [5] - The tightening of immigration policies by the Trump administration may increase labor costs, putting pressure on domestic U.S. companies [5]

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks, Citigroup and JPMorgan, predict a significant buying opportunity in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the stocks that have seen the largest declines this year, as trade tensions ease [1] - Both banks are particularly optimistic about small-cap stocks, technology hardware, and residential builders, which have lagged behind the S&P 500 in recent rallies [1] - Citigroup's U.S. equity trading strategist, Stuart Kaiser, notes that systematic traders and discretionary investors are likely to make substantial purchases of underperforming stocks due to their low current positions and available capital [1][3] Group 2 - JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler highlights the potential for a short squeeze in sectors like retail and consumer discretionary, which could lead to a sharp increase in stock prices as short sellers are forced to cover their positions [3] - Despite the short-term optimism, long-term fund managers remain cautious about small-cap stocks and financially weak companies due to high interest rates and slowing economic growth [3] - The "weak balance sheet index" tracked by Goldman Sachs, which monitors 50 heavily indebted companies, has outperformed the S&P 500 in 7 out of the last 8 trading days, indicating a shift towards cheaper stocks [4] Group 3 - Kaiser suggests increasing long positions in sectors that have underperformed since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump, including technology hardware and durable goods [4] - Dennis Debusschere from 22V Research points out that the valuation gap between riskier, economically sensitive companies and high-quality firms is significant, suggesting greater short-term upside for the former [4]

随着贸易紧张局势缓和，华尔街两大主要交易部门对美国股市做出同样大胆的预测：大量买入今年表现 最差的股票，可快速获取短期利润。花旗集团和摩根大通的股票交易部门负责人表示，他们对未来几周 的小盘股、科技硬件和住房建筑股尤其看好，这些板块在最近一轮上涨中均落后于标普500指数。花旗 美国股票交易策略主管Stuart Kaiser表示，在当前环境下，他也看好财务状况较弱的公司股票。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on the global market, particularly focusing on the Chinese market and its recovery trends following the initial shock [1][3]. Market Performance Summary - Following the announcement of tariffs on April 2, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop on April 7 that erased all gains for the year. However, by May 2, the Hang Seng Tech Index rebounded by 19.1%, while MSCI China, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw rebounds of 13.6%, 13.5%, and 13.3% respectively. The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 had smaller rebounds of 5.9% and 5.0% [1]. - Sector performance from April 8 to May 2 showed that Information Technology (+29.0%), Healthcare (+19.2%), and Consumer Discretionary (+14.3%) led the gains, while sectors like Banking (+4.9%), Utilities (+5.6%), and Energy (+5.9%) lagged behind [1]. Industry Analysis Framework - The article proposes an industry analysis framework based on demand sources, categorizing industries into three main types: 1. Industries primarily dependent on the U.S. market, which face significant challenges in finding alternative demand. 2. Industries with demand from markets outside the U.S., which are less directly affected by U.S. tariffs. 3. Industries with domestic demand, which are influenced by domestic policy support [4][6]. Impact of Tariffs on Different Industries - Industries with primary demand from the U.S. are categorized based on their ability to find alternative markets and their bargaining power. Sectors like Media, Software Services, and Textiles have shown resilience due to higher profit margins and U.S. import dependency, while smaller firms in shipping and medical supplies face greater challenges [6][10]. - Industries with demand from other markets, particularly those with established market shares and competitive advantages, are expected to perform better. Sectors such as Technology Hardware and Home Appliances have shown potential for growth in non-U.S. markets [11][14]. - Domestic demand-driven industries, particularly in consumption and infrastructure, are closely tied to government policy support. The article highlights the importance of fiscal measures to mitigate external shocks [18][20]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2018-2019 trade tensions, noting that the current market dynamics reflect similar patterns of initial decline followed by recovery phases. The sectors that are less dependent on U.S. demand have shown more resilience, while those heavily reliant on U.S. markets have faced significant declines [21][25]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP and corporate profits is discussed, with estimates suggesting that a significant drop in exports to the U.S. could lead to a decline in GDP growth and a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Hong Kong stocks [34][35]. - The article concludes with a projection of market indices under different scenarios, emphasizing the need for policy support to counterbalance the negative effects of tariffs and the importance of sector-specific strategies for investors [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the upcoming Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, particularly as it may be one of Warren Buffett's last full participations, highlighting the transition of leadership to Greg Abel and the potential implications for the company's future strategies and investment approaches [4][5][9]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The annual meeting will feature a Q&A session with Warren Buffett, Greg Abel, and Ajit Jain, starting earlier than usual and lasting approximately four and a half hours [1][2][4]. - This year marks the 60th anniversary of Buffett's acquisition of Berkshire Hathaway, and the meeting is expected to be pivotal due to Buffett's advancing age [4][5]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Greg Abel is anticipated to take over as CEO soon, with Buffett indicating that Abel will write the annual letter in the near future [5][12]. - Investors are particularly interested in Abel's leadership style and investment philosophy, as well as any potential changes in management structure following Buffett's departure [12][13][14]. Group 3: Economic and Market Concerns - The ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration is a significant concern, with investors eager to hear Buffett's views on tariffs and their impact on Berkshire's diverse businesses [6][7][8]. - Analysts warn that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of recession, which could affect Berkshire's stock price and overall performance [7][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Cash Reserves - Berkshire Hathaway currently holds a record cash reserve of $334.2 billion, raising questions about how Buffett and Abel will deploy these funds for future investments or acquisitions [15][16]. - There is speculation about potential acquisitions, including the remaining shares of Occidental Petroleum or other distressed assets, as well as the possibility of stock buybacks if Buffett's exit leads to a drop in share prices [20][21]. Group 5: Portfolio Adjustments - The article notes significant changes in Berkshire's investment portfolio, particularly regarding its stake in Apple, which has seen a dramatic reduction in percentage terms [21][22]. - Investors are curious about Buffett's stance on further reducing Apple holdings and how the company will navigate investments in international markets amidst trade tensions [23][24].

3、 新能源车企4月"成绩单"出炉。小鹏汽车4月共交付新车3.5万台，同比增长273%。理想汽车4月交付3.39万辆汽车，同比增长31.6%。小米汽车交付超 2.8万台， SU7 Ultra双风道前舱盖版已经开始陆续交付。零跑汽车交付达4.1万台，同比增长173%，增速再创新高。蔚来公司交付新车2.39万台，同比增 长53%。比亚迪前4月新能源汽车累计销量138.0893万辆，同比增长46.98%，4月当月销量超38万辆。 4、 苹果第二财季每股收益1.65美元，预期1.62美元；营收953.6亿美元，预期943亿美元；净利润247.8亿美元，预期242.6亿美元。 第二财季大中华区营收 160亿美元，预期168.3亿美元；产品营收687.1亿美元，预期678.4亿美元。iPhone营收468.4亿美元，预期459.4亿美元；iPad营收64亿美元，预期61.2亿美 元；Mac营收79.5亿美元，预期77.5亿美元。第二财季可穿戴设备、居家、周边营收75.2亿美元，预期80.5亿美元。苹果公司董事会授权回购不超过1000亿 美元股票，并提高派息。苹果美股盘后股价跌超2%。 // 国内宏观 // 1、在4月29 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the Greater China technology hardware sector [6]. Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on electronic products has increased, leading to various risks in the technology hardware supply chain. The risk-reward profile remains unattractive even after recent stock adjustments [1][3]. - A scenario analysis indicates a significant downward revision risk for earnings forecasts in 2025-26, with an average earnings forecast decline of 17-18% [3][16]. - Consumer electronics are expected to be the most affected, particularly companies heavily reliant on consumer technology, facing greater profit pressure and rising end-product prices [3][8]. - The diversification of production capacity is necessary but may come at a high cost, with potential increases in overall production costs by at least 50% [4][21]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The report outlines three scenarios regarding tariff impacts, assessing their effects on earnings based on product price increases and shipment volumes. The base case suggests a 10% average tariff on electronic products, leading to a 5% year-over-year price hike [15]. - The analysis shows that the technology hardware sector may experience a downturn lasting at least four quarters, with recovery in shipment volumes not expected until Q3 2026 [3][16]. Company-Specific Impacts - The report highlights that no technology hardware company is immune to the impacts of U.S. tariffs, with significant adjustments made to earnings forecasts for several companies, particularly within the Apple supply chain [25][27]. - Specific companies such as Hon Hai and Luxshare are rated as "Overweight," while others like Goertek and Lingyi are rated "Underweight" due to their exposure to tariff-related cost increases and demand slowdowns [25][27]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a cautious outlook for consumer electronics, with expected earnings growth of only 8% for the Apple supply chain and 16% for personal computers in the current year [17]. - In contrast, the data center infrastructure segment is projected to benefit from steady AI demand, with earnings growth expected to be 26% in 2025 and 13% in 2026 [17][31].