新华财经上海11月9日电（葛佳明） 本周（11月3日至8日），美国政府停摆进入第六周，经济数据真空正使美联储12月降息决策 陷入困境，美股大幅下挫，美元指数呈现先涨后跌的走势，贵金属市场继续剧烈震荡。 美股市场方面，标普500指数收报6728.80点，本周累计下跌1.63%；道琼斯工业平均指数收报46987.10点，本周累跌1.21%；纳指 收报230004.538点，本周累跌3.04%；罗素2000指数收报2432.824点，本周累跌1.88%。 对高估值的担忧推动美股科技股本周多数走弱，科技股七巨头（Magnificent 7）指数累跌3.21%，其中英伟达累跌7.08%，特斯拉 累跌5.92%，Meta累跌4.11%，微软累跌4.05%，谷歌A累跌0.84%，苹果累跌0.70%，亚马逊则累计微涨0.08%。 欧洲市场方面，欧洲STOXX 600指数本周累计下跌0.67%，德国DAX本周累计下跌1.62%；法国CAC 40指数收本周累跌2.10%； 英国富时100指数本周累跌0.36%。 亚太市场方面，日经225指数跌超4%，市场对美股人工智能（AI）板块或存在泡沫的担忧加剧，使得韩国股市遭遇重挫，韩国综 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin price stabilized above $103,000 after a week of sharp declines, but remains approximately 18% lower than the record high of $120,000 set on October 6 [1][2] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached nearly $4.4 trillion on October 6 but has since dropped about 20%, leaving a year-to-date gain of only 2.5% [3] - The decline in cryptocurrency values is causing concern on Wall Street, as Bitcoin is viewed as a leading indicator for high-volatility sectors in the stock market [3][16] Market Trends - The recent downturn in cryptocurrencies coincides with a cooling off in AI tech stocks, indicating a decrease in risk appetite across high-risk asset classes [4] - U.S. tech stocks experienced their worst week since April, driven by concerns over AI valuations and actual returns [5] - Meme stocks, recent IPOs, and unprofitable tech stocks have all seen declines of over 10% from recent highs [6][7] Investor Sentiment - The "buy the dip" strategy, which had been effective previously, is now failing, leading to a significant shift in investor confidence [9][10] - Data shows that investors withdrew over $700 million from digital asset ETFs in the past week, with nearly $600 million coming from BlackRock's Bitcoin fund [12] - The performance of alternative coins has been notably worse, with little new capital flowing into these assets [13] Market Dynamics - Concerns over high valuations in AI stocks are contributing to the decline in digital assets, with warnings that Bitcoin could fall below $100,000 if tech stocks are sold off [8][20] - The number of "whale" investors holding large positions is decreasing, raising fears of tightening liquidity in the market [18][19] - A significant liquidation of approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions occurred weeks ago, and the market has yet to recover from this shock [15]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, erasing nearly all gains accumulated in the first ten months of the year, with a total market cap drop of about 20% from a peak of nearly $4.4 trillion on October 6, leaving only a 2.5% year-to-date increase [1][5][6] Market Performance - Bitcoin's price stabilized above $103,000 after a week of sharp declines, but it remains approximately 18% lower than its record high of $120,000 set on October 6 [3][4] - The overall cryptocurrency market has shown weakness, causing concern among Wall Street analysts, as Bitcoin is viewed as a leading indicator for high-volatility stocks in the U.S. [5][14] Investor Sentiment - The traditional "buy the dip" strategy appears to be failing, leading to increased market caution and a significant shift in investor behavior [10][11] - Recent data indicates that investors withdrew over $700 million from digital asset ETFs in just one week, with nearly $600 million flowing out of BlackRock's Bitcoin fund [11] Altcoin Performance - Alternative coins have performed even worse than Bitcoin, with a lack of new capital inflow into the market for altcoins or DeFi projects [12] - A significant liquidation of a $19 billion leveraged position weeks ago has left the market struggling to recover [13] Market Indicators - Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a "canary in the coal mine," with its price fluctuations serving as a leading indicator for high-volatility tech stocks and retail liquidity [14][15] - The number of "whale" investors holding large positions has decreased, raising concerns about tightening liquidity in the market [16] Future Outlook - Analysts warn that if Bitcoin falls below the critical support level of $100,000, further sell-offs may occur, potentially driving the price down to $70,000 in the near future [17]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $100,000 twice this week before rebounding to above $103,000, but it remains approximately 18% lower than its record high of $120,000 set on October 6 [2][3] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached nearly $4.4 trillion on October 6 but has since fallen about 20%, leaving a year-to-date increase of only 2.5% for the entire asset class [3] - The decline in cryptocurrency prices is causing concern on Wall Street, as Bitcoin is viewed as a leading indicator for high-volatility stocks in the U.S. market [3][12] Market Trends - The recent cryptocurrency downturn coincides with a decline in AI tech stocks, indicating a cooling of risk appetite in high-risk asset classes [4] - Meme stocks and recently IPO'd companies, which have been popular among retail investors, have also seen declines of over 10% from recent highs [4][5] - Concerns over the high valuations of AI stocks are partially attributed to the drop in digital assets, with warnings that if tech stocks continue to sell off, Bitcoin could fall below the $100,000 mark [6][12] Investor Behavior - The previously strong "buy the dip" mentality among investors is being tested, with a noticeable shift in market sentiment [7][8] - Data indicates a cautious sentiment among investors, with over $700 million withdrawn from digital asset ETFs in the past week, including nearly $600 million from BlackRock's Bitcoin fund [9] - The lack of new capital inflow into alternative tokens and DeFi projects suggests a stagnant market, with many areas of the crypto market remaining defensive [9][10] Market Dynamics - Analysts note that there is insufficient new capital to offset the exits of local investors, and a recovery in upward trends may require "whales" to stop selling [10] - A significant liquidation of approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions occurred weeks ago, and the market has yet to recover from that shock [11] - Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a "canary in the coal mine," with its price fluctuations serving as an early warning signal for high-volatility tech stocks and retail liquidity [12][13] Whale Activity - The number of "whale" investors holding large positions has been declining, which raises concerns about tightening liquidity in the market [13][14] - The potential for Bitcoin to fall below the critical support level of $100,000 could indicate that further sell-offs are imminent, with predictions of a possible drop to $70,000 in the near future [14]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector in the US stock market faced significant sell-offs, leading to a decline in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, particularly in Hong Kong where major indices fell sharply [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.14%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 1.12%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2% [1] - Major technology stocks such as Xiaomi, JD.com, Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba all experienced declines of over 2%, with Xiaomi falling more than 3% [1] Group 2: Sector Trends - Semiconductor stocks, which had rebounded previously, also faced weakness again [1] - Other sectors including Chinese brokerage stocks, automotive stocks, heavy machinery stocks, and Apple-related stocks all saw declines [1] Group 3: Commodity and Alternative Sectors - Gold prices returned to $4,000, leading to a continued rise in gold stocks [1] - The solar energy sector made significant progress against internal competition, with solar stocks showing strong performance [1] - The three major oil companies continued their upward trend [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the formation of a MACD golden cross signal, indicating a bullish trend for certain stocks [1] Group 1 - The MACD golden cross signal is a technical indicator that suggests potential upward momentum in stock prices [1] - Several stocks have shown significant price increases following the formation of this signal, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.84% to 46,912.3 points, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.12% to 6,720.32 points, and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.9% to 23,053.99 points [1] Individual Stocks - Technology stocks experienced a broad decline, with Nvidia down over 3%, Tesla down more than 3%, Amazon down nearly 3%, Facebook down over 2%, Microsoft down nearly 2%, and Apple down 0.14%. In contrast, Google saw a slight increase of 0.15% [3] - Chinese concept stocks showed relatively strong performance, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.03% and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.93%. Notable individual stock movements included Xiaopeng Motors up nearly 10%, Canadian Solar up nearly 7%, Baidu up over 3%, and Xinyi Technology up over 2% [3] Gold Market - As risk aversion increased, gold prices rose in early trading, with London gold opening higher [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to interest rate cuts, with Harker stating that inflation levels remain high, which is not conducive to further rate cuts. She expressed concerns that monetary policy may not be adequately prepared to address current inflation [5] - Musalem indicated that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range and suggested that further rate decreases could benefit the real estate market. He noted that the Fed has moderately eased policy to support the job market and that long-term inflation expectations have stabilized [6] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 70.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29.4%. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by January is 54.2%, with a 17.7% chance of no change and a 28.2% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [6]

记者丨赖镇桃 编辑丨和佳 经历了"红色十月"后，比特币价格再次跌破关键支撑位。 11月5日周三凌晨，比特币价格直线下行，一度下探至99008美元/枚，是6月末以来首次跌破10万美元大关。截至23时左右，比特币跌幅收窄。 | BTC | 103263 | -1.01% | | --- | --- | --- | | $701.8亿 +2.9% | | | | ETH | 3350 | -5.6% | | $392.1亿 -8.6% | | | | SOL | 158.9 | -3.34% | | $74.7亿 -10.2% | | | | XRP | 2.267 | -1.62% | | $33.8亿 -4.9% | | | | HYPE | 41.21 | +5.97% | | $17.5亿 +3.8% | | | | BNB | 958.2 | -0.38% | | $15.1亿 -0.0% | | | 短短一个月内，比特币的价格已经重挫超18%，单枚比特币的价格跌超22400美元。 抛售的压力依然高企。Coinbase数据显示，比特币的总市值月内已经缩水超2.62%，相当于一个月内蒸发了约600亿美元的市 ...

经历了"红色十月"后，比特币价格再次跌破关键支撑位。 11月5日，周三凌晨，比特币价格直线下行，一度下探至99008美元/枚，是6月末以来首次跌破10万美元 大关。短短一个月内，比特币的价格已经重挫超18%，单枚比特币的价格跌超22400美元。 抛售的压力依然高企。Coinbase数据显示，比特币的总市值月内已经缩水超2.62%，相当于一个月内蒸 发了约600亿美元的市值。 比特币以外，其他加密货币则以更快的速度下泄。最近一个月，以太坊作为总市值排名仅次于比特币的 第二大加密货币，月跌超29%，XRP下挫超25%。 刚过去的10月，币圈还意外终结了七年连涨神话。从2018年开始，比特币在每年10月都会出现必涨行 情，但几周前一波大清算危机后，10月从"Uptober"变成了"Downtober"，现在比特币已经基本抹除夏季 的全部涨幅。 一般而言，加密货币还会在四季度迎来一年来的最佳行情。市场能在年底找回看涨的信心吗？ 逃离风险资产 当地时间11月4日，美国三大股指全线收跌，"恐慌指数"VIX波动率指数大幅上涨，风险资产出现剧烈 抛售，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌1.93%，高盛和摩根士丹利的分析师双双警告未来两 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices falling sharply, particularly the Nasdaq, which dropped over 2% [1] - Notable investors, including Michael Burry, have taken large short positions against leading tech stocks, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] - Concerns about high valuation levels in the U.S. stock market have been raised by several Wall Street leaders, predicting potential corrections of 10% to 20% in the next 12 to 24 months [1][2] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is expected to exceed previous records, has heightened fears of an economic recession, impacting investor sentiment [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates in response to recession risks, which has contributed to the decline in major stock indices and affected Chinese concept stocks [3] - The technology sector has been a strong performer this year, but profit-taking pressures are increasing as the market adjusts [3] Group 3 - The current market adjustment is viewed as a necessary correction within an ongoing upward trend, rather than an end to the bull market [5] - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and patience, focusing on sectors and companies that will benefit from economic transformation [6] - The upcoming closure of Hainan's free trade zone is anticipated to positively impact local economic growth and related listed companies, making it a hot sector in the market [4]