Core Conclusion - The market's upward momentum has slowed down this week, with active trading funds causing turnover rates to spike, surpassing the high point of August 2025. The spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation after excessive short-term trading is normal. Although there are indications of a short-term cooling in policy, the overall stance remains accommodative [1][5]. Market Trends - The market style is shifting, with thematic sentiment cooling and strong sectors returning to the prosperity line. In the liquidity bull market phase, the profit effect is spreading, and price increases are considered a key prosperity line. The current narrative around commodities is driven by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring, leading to a re-pricing of key resource products [1][5]. Commodity Price Dynamics - Long-term, commodity prices tend to move in tandem, even during periods of economic downturn, as seen from 1970 to 1980 when prices continued to rise until 1980. There is optimism for a new super cycle in commodity prices. In the short to medium term, the focus should be on supply constraints, with potential expansion from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Beneficiaries on both supply and demand sides include non-ferrous metals (precious metals, copper, aluminum, strategic metals, rare earths), new energy (new energy materials, power batteries), chemical products (phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals), and storage chips [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Factors - The current commodity price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security. On the supply side, the control of strategic resources is intensifying amid great power competition, leading to increased scarcity in key mineral sectors. On the demand side, real needs driven by the AI technology revolution, energy transition, and military spending are boosting demand for strategic metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. A weak dollar cycle may support the elevation of commodity price levels [2][6]. Price Movement Patterns - Historically, during a commodity price increase, there are price rotations among commodities due to their interdependencies and relationships within the supply chain. For instance, during the demand expansion-driven price increase from 2009 to 2011, copper led the rise, followed by crude oil and soybeans. In the supply constraint-driven price increase from 2016 to 2018, oil and black commodities rose first, with chemical products showing sustained price increases [2][6]. Future Outlook - There is a strong belief in the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices. The focus for the current price increase should be on supply constraint elasticity, with expansion likely moving from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Key supply constraints include production capacity limits for critical resources like copper and rare earths, capacity restrictions driven by "anti-involution" policies, and supply shortages driven by high AI demand. Demand opportunities are expected to arise from the transition between new and old driving forces in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AIDC [3][7].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level adjustment in the short term due to the dual pressure of short - term demand and a strong US dollar, but the medium - term demand is still positive [7]. - The downward space of lithium carbonate futures prices is limited, considering the limited growth of supply and the recovery of short - term demand [28]. - Aluminum prices have a downward adjustment demand in the short term due to the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase in the early stage [41][44]. - The operating center of nickel prices is expected to gradually rise, but the long - term space depends on the demand side, and investors need to pay attention to the Indonesian policy [77][78]. - Zinc prices are supported by macro - sentiment and a tight industrial pattern, but high prices have suppressed consumption, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [103][104]. 4. Summary of Each Metal Copper Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated between 100,060 and 105,650 this week, with a 5.3% decrease in total positions. The price first rose and then fell. LME copper also fluctuated in a certain range, and the overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long decreased [7]. - In the short term, high copper prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory accumulation accelerates. However, the medium - term demand is positive, such as the increase in the State Grid's fixed - asset investment and TSMC's capital expenditure. It is expected that copper prices will enter a high - level adjustment in the short term [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The import TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, but the supply of cold materials is abundant. The production of smelters in January is expected to decrease slightly. The import window of refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of waste copper rods and refined copper rods have rebounded, but the downstream purchasing sentiment is still cautious. The operating rate of wire and cable has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of enameled wire has increased [14][15][16][17]. - **Spot**: The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME + COMEX market has also increased. It is expected that the inventory may decline next week [18][20]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures price of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell this week, with a 17% decrease in total positions. The spot price also fluctuated. The downstream has stocked up in advance, and the social inventory has started to decline [27]. - The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the downward space of futures prices is limited [28]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Lithium ore prices have risen significantly this week. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in January. The production cost has also increased [31]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and lithium batteries have all risen. The demand for cathode materials is expected to recover [32][33][34]. - **Spot**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. Aluminum Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level this week, reaching new highs and then falling. The market sentiment cooled down, and the import window was closed. The inventory increased, and the spot premium was in a certain range [41]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase slightly in the short term, and the demand may be stimulated by the decline in aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will have a downward adjustment in the short term [44]. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite production is gradually recovering, and the overseas market is trading lightly. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the price of imported bauxite has declined slightly [45]. - **Alumina**: The price has adjusted downward this week, and the import window is open. The domestic alumina plant is operating at a high level [49][50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window of aluminum ingots is closed, and the net import in November has declined. The operating rate of downstream processing has increased slightly due to pre - holiday stocking, but it is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [55][62][65][70]. Nickel Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, rising first and then falling. The spot trading was light, and the import window was closed [74][77]. - Nickel prices are affected by Indonesian policies. Although the short - term surplus pressure still exists, the operating center is expected to rise. Investors need to pay attention to the final quota of Indonesia [77][78]. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian wet - process nickel ore has decreased, and the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased month - on - month [79]. - **Ferronickel**: The production of domestic and Indonesian ferronickel has decreased. The market has some activity, but there is still a difference between the upstream and downstream [86]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. The production in December has increased, and the import and export volumes have changed [91]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts has risen significantly this week. The production in December has decreased, and the industry's operating load is at a certain level [96]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the pattern of low inventory and strong expectation will continue, but there are potential risks [99]. Zinc Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zinc prices fluctuated this week, reaching a new high and then falling back. The import window is not fully open, and the premium has declined [101][102]. - The short - term bullish funds are loose, the supply pressure is limited, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against the high - level callback of zinc prices [103][104]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, the import processing fee continues to decline, and the import window is open but the trading is light. The zinc ingot production in January is expected to increase slightly [109][110][111]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide have all decreased. It is expected that the operating rates will rise slightly next week, but the recovery is limited [112][113]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased [114].

黄金方面： 近期贵金属市场仅在周一和周二出现了较为明确的趋势行情，随后市场陷入震荡，主要推手是当前市场陷入共识疲劳，年初市 场共识一直看涨，而现在市场跌幅有限，是在等待新一轮的市场变化。 虽然特朗普表示，伊朗在镇压抗议活动中的行为正在缓解，暗示可能采取观望态度。但是受到特朗普一贯政策左右改变的影 响，现在市场不敢断定，美国一定不会干预伊朗的局势，仍有变数。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，近期伊朗问题的缓解，一定程度上削弱了黄金的避险属性，金价有所回落。但是跌 幅有限，一定程度上又反映了，市场处在共识疲劳期，仍需要等待确定的答案。 技术面分析：昨日收十字线。日线级别，金价维持在4600美元附近震荡。1小时级别，价格跌破60日均线，向下试探120日均 线，市场处于弱转势阶段。今日多空分水岭在4575美元一线，关注市场在此的变化。 原油方面： 随着委内瑞拉原油改革推进，更多的原油供应进入市场。在美国介入后，北美生产商可能会急于通过整合来对冲油价的下行风 险。在当前低油价环境下，规模效应可以降低成本。2026年，全球原油仍会面临过剩压力。 地缘政治对油价的影响是阶段性的，在库存压力逐步走高的背景下，原油大概率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant capital inflows and record high ETF performance, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.2%, currently up 1.41%, reaching a new all-time high since its listing [1]. - As of January 15, the latest scale of the non-ferrous ETF Huabao is 1.453 billion, marking a historical high, and it ranks first among three ETFs tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index [1]. - The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 50.4 million units, with a total net inflow of 473 million over the past ten days [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector include Hunan Silver, which surged over 6%, and other companies like Chihong Zn & Ge, Jiangxi Copper, and Jinchuan Group, all rising over 5% [6]. - The total market capitalization of leading stocks in the sector varies, with notable companies like Jiangxi Copper at 196 billion and Chihong Zn & Ge at 48.2 billion [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive due to factors such as global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macro expectations [4]. - China Galaxy Securities suggests that copper prices have significant upward potential, driven by historical trends and the current global economic landscape [3]. - The demand for strategic metals is expected to rise due to new technological revolutions and geopolitical factors, indicating a new cycle for strategic metal demand [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's performance [5]. - The industry is anticipated to benefit from the convergence of AI advancements and global economic shifts, creating a "super cycle" for non-ferrous metals [3][4].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Shanghai copper market showed a volatile decline, but the decline narrowed in the afternoon as risk appetite recovered. After the market closed, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the monetary policy tool rate and indicated there is room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts this year. The supply of copper is expected to contract, and demand may pick up as copper prices correct. It is expected that the inventory will start to decline next week. Although the short - term spot pressure is increasing, the loose Chinese monetary policy will offset the pressure, and copper prices will oscillate to digest the inventory pressure [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. Trump postponed the tariff increase on key minerals, leading to significant selling in the metal sector. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell below the trend line. However, risk appetite recovered in the afternoon, and the decline in copper prices narrowed. After the market closed, the central bank cut the monetary policy tool rate [10] - **Spot Market**: The copper spot price dropped by 1340 to 102,575. The spot premium rose to 200, and the monthly spread in the last trading month widened with a stronger premium. The social inventory increased by 2.75 to 32.09 million tons compared to Monday due to the concentrated arrival of domestic copper during the delivery cycle [10] - **Import and Supply Outlook**: The loss of spot copper imports narrowed to 1465. The arrival of imported copper will remain low, and the arrival of domestic copper will also decrease after the delivery. Supply is expected to contract [10] - **Demand and Inventory Outlook**: Demand may pick up as copper prices decline. It is expected that the inventory will start to decline next week. The current spot C - L prices are basically the same. The high inventory in the COMEX market may impact the LME market, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure has declined, increasing short - term spot pressure [10] 2. Industry News - **Jiangxi Copper**: Jiangxi Copper's subsidiary signed an investment option agreement with a subsidiary of First Quantum Minerals Limited for exploration project cooperation. The signing of this agreement does not constitute a related - party transaction or a major asset restructuring [10] - **Elemental Group**: The largest recycling company in Poland plans to invest $8 billion in two core projects named "Polvolt", with two - thirds of the funds for a copper smelting and refining plant and the rest for a power battery metal refinery. The projects have received EU and Polish government subsidies, and the company is looking for minority - equity partners, likely from Asia [10][11] - **US Policy**: US President Trump decided to temporarily refrain from imposing new tariffs on key mineral imports. He will seek to negotiate agreements with foreign countries and is considering a "price floor" mechanism. He also warned that import restrictions including tariffs may be imposed if satisfactory agreements cannot be reached [11]

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The index is expected to continue its outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and increased merger activities [1] - The preference order for the Chinese basic materials industry in 2026 is copper/gold, aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [3] Company Performance - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][4] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper/gold [4] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [4] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [5] Supply Chain Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions include maintenance at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine, which is expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [2] - The demand growth for basic metals in China is projected to stabilize, with copper and aluminum demand growth rates expected at 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiangyin Electric Alloy Co., Ltd., has shown a positive performance in stock price and financial results, indicating growth potential in the copper and copper alloy industry. Financial Performance - As of September 30, the company achieved a revenue of 2.293 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.11% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 127 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.45% [2] Stock Performance - On January 15, the stock price increased by 2.03%, reaching 18.06 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 99.2094 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.68% [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 7.63%, with a 4.33% increase over the last five trading days and a 12.03% increase over the last 20 days [1] Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders as of September 30 is 40,500, an increase of 2.75% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder is 8,181, which has decreased by 2.68% from the previous period [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 451 million yuan in dividends, with 186 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Business Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of copper and copper alloy products, with its main revenue sources being copper busbars (66.21%), electrified railway contact network products (29.90%), and high-voltage connectors for new energy vehicles (3.29%) [1] - The company is categorized under the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in industrial metals and copper [1] Market Position - The company is associated with several concept sectors, including Xiaomi automotive, NIO automotive, railway infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and small-cap stocks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with changes ranging from 0 BP to 8 BP, leading to a significant increase in credit bond issuance volume due to a low base effect [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has increased, while the net financing for targeted tools has decreased; corporate bonds have a negative net financing amount, while other types have positive net financing [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts for credit bonds, with most types experiencing growth [2] - Credit spreads have narrowed for most mid-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, as credit bonds continue to perform better than interest rate bonds [2] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] Company Research: WuXi AppTec (药明康德) - WuXi AppTec expects to achieve a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with continuous operating business revenue expected to grow by approximately 21.40% [6][7] - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit is projected to be around 14.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 41.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach approximately 19.151 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 102.65% [6][7] - The strong growth is attributed to the advantages of the CRDMO model, with a focus on integrated services and continuous optimization of production processes [7] - The company plans to focus on its CRDMO business model and has sold parts of its equity in joint ventures, contributing to its profit growth [7] Industry Research: Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to maintain production levels due to acceptable profit margins, although demand is in a seasonal decline [13] - Copper prices are influenced by market sentiment and resource competition, with potential for high volatility [13] - Aluminum prices are supported by high copper prices and strategic resource concerns, while supply remains ample [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. employment data [13] - The rare earth market is anticipated to strengthen due to export control measures and strategic importance [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - The medium - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to the risk of structural imbalance in global inventories and supply concerns from the Venezuela event. However, real - end demand is weak at high prices [2]. Zinc - In the context of geopolitical tensions, the non - ferrous metal sector moves upward in resonance. The zinc price is supported by tight ore supply but may face pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with support around 23800 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by macro and policy expectations but faces pressure from supply growth and weak demand. Short - term price is expected to be high - level and widely volatile [7]. Tin - The supply of tin may increase with the potential resumption of mines in Myanmar, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to hold previously bought call options [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to be low - level and volatile, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices are falling. The market will continue to accumulate inventory in January. The price may be supported at 48000 - 50000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market fluctuates at a high level. Cost is the main driving factor, but the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [14]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate futures are rising. The supply side has a slight increase expectation, and downstream demand has some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity and regulatory risks should be noted [16]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market. Short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile [18]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock. It is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand in the off - season. Short - term price is expected to adjust in a shock pattern [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 102510 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous value. The refined - scrap spread is 5042 yuan/ton, down 7.96% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month. Global visible inventories are at a high level, but 50% are in the US and difficult to flow to non - US regions [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24330 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The refined zinc output in December was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic zinc mine production has declined for two consecutive months, and the zinc ore TC is at a low level. The downstream start - up rate and orders are weak [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24300 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons. The inventory is accumulating [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 380200 yuan/ton, up 3.16%. The import volume of tin ore in November increased significantly month - on - month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may accelerate, and demand shows regional differences [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is at 8835 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be weak. The production may decrease by 1 - 2 million tons, and demand may decline by about 1 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. The main contract is below 50000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline, and the market will continue to accumulate inventory [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM ADC12 is 23950 yuan/ton. The cost is the main driving factor, but the supply and demand are weak [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in December was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [14]. Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159500 yuan/ton, up 4.93%. The supply side has a slight increase, and downstream demand has some resilience [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate was 99200 tons, and the demand was 130118 tons. The inventory is changing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 145200 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The attitude of Indonesia on nickel ore quotas and geopolitical factors affect the market [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 30.08% [18]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel is stable. The price is affected by raw material prices, with cost support and weak demand [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50% month - on - month, and the social inventory is decreasing [20].