Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows some resilience with the May unemployment rate in line with expectations and non - farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts and a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The ongoing US - Japan trade negotiations have no results, and internal US uncertainties are increasing, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy [6]. - Overseas tariff policies and US internal instability factors are increasing, which will likely affect global assets. In the short term, the market will return to fundamentals. Domestically, demand is entering the off - season, putting upward pressure on prices in the medium term. However, the social inventory is decreasing and at a low level, and spot merchants are eager to support prices, with high premiums providing strong support for the market. It is expected that the main 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,600 - 20,200 yuan/ton, with a higher probability of short - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 20,000, and industrial players are advised to purchase as needed [8]. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May, the in - production capacity increased by 2.1 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly. The domestic arrival volume of ore remained normal, and the departure volume from Guinea was also normal [9]. - In April 2025, China's alumina net exports were 249,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 13 consecutive months of net exports. Import shifted to a small profit [9]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Profit - The current smelting cost of alumina is 3,046 yuan per ton, with a profit of 269 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The latest price of caustic soda is 3,730 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton [9]. Suggestion - The impact of Guinea's ore - end policy on sentiment has eased, and the market has fallen after a surge. It is recommended to take a long - position in the 09 contract on dips and a short - position in the 07 contract on rallies. The position volume of the variety is 450,000 lots, with 320,000 lots in the 09 contract. Although the funds have flowed out compared to the previous week, the volume is still relatively high, and large fluctuations are expected [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% and a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.22%, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In April, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import in April was 236,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,600 tons and a month - on - month increase of 23,700 tons [54][56]. - In April, China's scrap aluminum imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The cumulative scrap aluminum imports from January to April were 697,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [63]. Demand - In April 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The cumulative output this year was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [65]. - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output this year was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [68]. Cost - The domestic alumina spot price declined slightly from the high level and remained volatile at a high level, while the overseas spot price was stable in the short term [71]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,675 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, about 0.26% [74]. - The price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,710 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 230 yuan/ton, about 2.3%. The price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton, about 3.15% [77]. Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 17,021 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The overall profit is 3,279 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/ton [80]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum is 1,132 yuan/ton, a weekly slight narrowing of 5 yuan/ton [83]. Inventory - As of June 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 503,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,000 tons and a decrease of 17,000 tons within the week. The inventory is at a historically low level, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [86]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China is in the range of 20,100 - 20,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and as downstream demand enters the off - season, the upward pressure on prices increases, and the spot premium decreases slightly. However, due to the low social inventory, spot merchants still have the will to support prices [92].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) is a pioneer in the green, intelligent, and digital transformation of the domestic aluminum industry, particularly focusing on green development through initiatives like 500,000 tons/year of green low-carbon hydropower aluminum and distributed photovoltaic projects [1][2] Group 1: Project Developments - The company’s subsidiary, Sichuan Zhongfu, signed an investment cooperation agreement with Penghui Energy to build a large-scale user-side energy storage project in Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone, which includes a first phase of 100MW/400MWh and a second phase of 300MW/600MWh [1] - The first phase will become the largest user-side energy storage project in the country, significantly enhancing both companies' brand influence and market voice in the green energy sector [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Impact - Recent national and provincial policies supporting new energy and storage development will enhance the peak-shaving capacity of the North Sichuan power grid, alleviating power shortages during peak summer periods and ensuring stable energy supply for the company’s aluminum production [2] - The project aligns with local government policies and has received strong support, indicating a promising outlook for the company’s energy supply stability in Guangyuan [2] Group 3: Future Collaborations and Innovations - Sichuan Zhongfu and Penghui Energy will collaborate on solid-state battery research and efficient discharge technology for traditional storage, aiming to create a second growth curve while accumulating low-carbon technologies and developing low-carbon products [2] - The company is also advancing another integrated source-grid-load-storage project in Henan, which is set to install approximately 22.98MWp of photovoltaic capacity by the end of May 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - The short - term fundamentals change little. The nickel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production cut rhythm [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still have pressure. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be weak and operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [5]. Tin - The short - term supply - side tightness boosts the tin price. Consider shorting on rallies above 260,000, and pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm [7]. Alumina - If the mine - end situation does not further ferment, the alumina price will be under pressure, with the lower reference cash cost of 2,700. Attention should be paid to domestic enterprise capacity changes and imported supply [8]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate, with the operating range of 19,000 - 21,000. Attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [8]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,500. Pay attention to zinc ore production growth and downstream demand changes [10]. Copper - The short - term copper price will fluctuate. The main focus is on the pressure level of 78,000 - 79,000. The downward space depends on real demand weakness, and the upward space depends on tariff expectation reversal or US economic risk release [13]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.47% to 123,425 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 0.42% to 124,575 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel rose 0.51% to 122,425 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton and 13,050 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.08% to 60,250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.09% to 58,650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 2.04% to 255,500 yuan/ton; Yangtze 1 tin rose 2.03% to 256,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.80% to 20,280 yuan/ton; Yangtze aluminum A00 rose 0.80% to 20,270 yuan/ton [8]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.53% to 22,910 yuan/ton; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) rose 0.66% to 22,810 yuan/ton [10]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.05% to 78,485 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.15% to 78,295 yuan/ton [13]. Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production - Integrated MHP production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton; integrated high - matte production cost of electrolytic nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,915 yuan/ton; battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.33% to 60,700 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - **Nickel**: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 220 yuan/ton from - 250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 25 yuan/ton from - 42 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 40 yuan/ton from 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 400 yuan/ton from - 240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 90 yuan/ton from 130 yuan/ton [8]. - **Zinc**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 335 yuan/ton from 390 yuan/ton [10]. - **Copper**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 150 yuan/ton from 290 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons; refined nickel imports increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: May's lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons; demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons [5]. - **Tin**: April's tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons; SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons [7]. - **Aluminum**: May's alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [8]. - **Zinc**: May's refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons; April's refined zinc imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons [10]. - **Copper**: May's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons; April's electrolytic copper imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons [13].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the introduction of China's first recycled metal futures product, aimed at enhancing the recycling market and supporting the green transformation of the aluminum industry [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The casting aluminum alloy is primarily made from recycled aluminum, which is crucial for energy conservation and emission reduction, aligning with global low-carbon transformation efforts in the aluminum industry [1]. - China has established a complete aluminum industry chain, from bauxite to recycled aluminum, and the introduction of these futures will help create a standardized and transparent pricing mechanism [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Risk Management - The rapid development of the aluminum industry, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, has increased the demand for casting aluminum alloys, leading to a stronger need for price risk management among related enterprises [2]. - The new futures and options will provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations, while also expanding their physical delivery channels for smoother sales and procurement [2]. Group 3: Contract Specifications - The trading unit for casting aluminum alloy futures is set at 10 tons per contract, with a delivery unit of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt, requiring adjustments to be in multiples of 3 contracts [3]. - The issuance of VAT invoices will be managed between buyers and sellers, with specific timelines for invoice delivery and dispute resolution responsibilities outlined for both parties [3]. Group 4: Future Market Development - The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to enhance market cultivation and research, aiming to align closely with market demands to promote the effective functioning of casting aluminum alloy futures and options [3].

Group 1: Overview of the Casting Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy is the most widely used non-ferrous metal material in China, primarily composed of aluminum with added metal or non-metal elements to enhance its properties [5] - The industry is divided into primary aluminum alloys and recycled aluminum alloys, with the latter being produced from scrap aluminum [5] - ADC12 is a key grade of recycled casting aluminum alloy, accounting for approximately 10% of the total primary aluminum production [5][7] Group 2: Recycled Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain - The upstream of the recycled aluminum alloy industry chain consists of scrap aluminum recycling enterprises, with sources mainly from construction, transportation, and electrical sectors [6] - The midstream involves recycled aluminum production companies that process scrap aluminum into alloy ingots through various stages [6] - The downstream market sees recycled aluminum primarily in the form of casting aluminum alloy ingots, which are used extensively in the automotive sector [6] Group 3: Supply Situation of Scrap Aluminum in China - Domestic scrap aluminum supply is primarily sourced from old materials, with an expected total supply exceeding 12 million tons by 2024 [20][21] - The recycling system in China is still developing, with a need for more large-scale and professional recycling enterprises to stabilize supply channels [25] - The import of scrap aluminum has been subject to policy adjustments, with a significant increase in imports expected in 2024 [29][30] Group 4: Supply and Demand Status of Casting Aluminum Alloys - The production of recycled aluminum is projected to grow, with a target of 11.5 million tons by 2025 [37] - The demand for casting aluminum alloys is heavily driven by the automotive industry, which utilizes aluminum for weight reduction and fuel efficiency [54][56] - The current production capacity of recycled casting aluminum alloys is around 1.2 million tons, with ADC12 accounting for a significant portion of this production [38] Group 5: Price Trends of Casting Aluminum Alloys - The price of ADC12 generally follows the trend of primary aluminum prices, with a strong correlation observed [71] - The industry has faced low profit margins due to overcapacity, with average profits reported at -25 yuan per ton in 2024 [71] - The introduction of futures contracts for casting aluminum alloys is expected to enhance price discovery and provide risk management tools for market participants [78] Group 6: Futures Contract Details - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch a futures contract for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, with specific trading parameters outlined [79][80] - The contract will have a trading unit of 10 tons and a minimum price fluctuation of 5 yuan per ton [80] - Delivery will be based on specific quality standards, ensuring compliance with established chemical composition requirements [82]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant transformation and digitalization occurring within the aluminum industry, particularly showcased at the Binzhou Aluminum Expo [3][13] - The 2025 Binzhou Aluminum Expo, held from September 11-13, featured over 500 exhibitors and covered an exhibition area of 25,000 square meters, serving as a key platform for observing the intelligent transformation of the aluminum industry [3][13] - The expo demonstrated a shift from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing, emphasizing the integration of digital technologies in the aluminum production process [3][11] Group 2 - The Binzhou Aluminum Expo is positioned as a "testbed for industry intelligence," driven by technological iteration and practical application across the aluminum industry [3][7] - The event showcased a complete chain from raw materials to research and development, manufacturing, and testing, highlighting the digital linkage from material design to finished product manufacturing [7] - Discussions on the construction of digital twin systems for the aluminum industry were held, promoting the application of virtual simulation technology in production line planning [7][11] Group 3 - The expo facilitated a collaborative ecosystem between emerging companies and industry leaders, creating a "dual matrix of intelligent manufacturing" that fosters innovation [11] - The collaboration led to the development of an "aluminum processing technology knowledge base," which utilizes machine learning to integrate production data and significantly shorten new product development cycles [11] - The event underscored the necessity of intelligent transformation in the aluminum industry, marking it as an inevitable trend integrated into every production phase [13]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the futures and options for casting aluminum alloy by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks the upcoming launch of the first recycled metal variety in China's futures market, providing a new risk management tool for related industries [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with a production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and an output of about 6.2 million tons in 2024 [3]. - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys is around 6.73 million tons, highlighting its extensive application in various sectors such as automotive, machinery, and electronics [3]. - The production of one ton of casting aluminum alloy results in carbon emissions that are about 3.6% of those from electrolytic aluminum, demonstrating significant energy savings and environmental benefits [3]. Group 2: Policy and Development Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and ten other departments have issued a plan to enhance the high-quality development of the aluminum industry, aiming for a recycled aluminum output of over 15 million tons by 2027 [4]. - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is a significant step in promoting green finance and supporting the low-carbon transformation of the aluminum industry [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Industry representatives express strong demand for the futures and options, as the lack of a dedicated recycled aluminum futures product has limited effective risk management strategies [6][7]. - The introduction of these financial instruments is expected to create a transparent and efficient pricing mechanism, addressing issues such as high costs and long payment cycles faced by enterprises [6][8]. - The futures market will enhance the risk management capabilities of the aluminum industry, allowing for better profit allocation and improved operational efficiency [9].

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, Yingkou Dashiqiao Economic Development Zone focuses on high-quality development, planning to start or resume 25 projects with a total investment of 2.205 billion yuan [1] - Fixed asset investment is expected to reach 100 million yuan in Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, while the technical contract transaction amount is projected to be 10.5 million yuan, up 31.2% year-on-year [1] - The number of provincial-level green factories in the zone has increased to 3, with 2 new clean production enterprises added [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the zone aims to strengthen and supplement industrial chains, targeting fine chemicals, aluminum industry, and non-ferrous metals, while deepening cooperation with regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Chuzhou [2] - Projects such as a 600 million yuan wind power and photovoltaic project with Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and a deep processing project for 50,000 tons of fuel oil and 100,000 tons of asphalt in Kuwait are being promoted [2] - The zone continues to implement the "Management Committee + Company" model to enhance the business environment and ensure rapid response to enterprise demands through various initiatives [2]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-22 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-22 所长 早读 外资机构纷纷看多中国股市 观点分享： 据证券日报报道，5 月 21 日，第 28 届瑞银亚洲投资论坛媒体分享会召开，瑞银全球金 融市场部中国主管房东明表示，当前，国际市场对中国资产关注度持续升温。一方面，流动 性向好趋势明显，这对提升投资者信心至关重要，量化基金及其他中长线海外投资者均积极 寻求深度参与中国资本市场。同时，中国监管部门也积极回应全球投资者关切点，提供切实 指导与帮助。另一方面，新质生产力领域吸引力愈发凸显，在人工智能、高端制造等产业链 推动下，中国股市叙事逻辑转变，叠加政策推动，全球投资者对中国资产中长短期关注度都 在不断提升；高盛最新报告显示，将 MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数的 12 个月目标分别上 调至 84 点和 4600 点（分别有 11%和 17%的潜在上涨空间），维持对中国股票的超配评级； 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，中国拥有充足的应对冲击的回旋空间。原因有四 方面：一是国内政策刺激拥有加码空间；二是整体社会民生仍具有承 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data for April shows both highlights and weaknesses. The actual growth is still resilient, the supply - demand relationship is stable, and consumption recovery exceeds expectations. However, fixed - asset investment growth is low, the real estate market is weak, and the price center remains low [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak due to the continuous expectation of oversupply and the decline in costs. The price of most commodities has different trends, such as gold in shock adjustment, copper supported by inventory decline, etc. [10][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - The six - caliber data in April (industry, service, export, social retail, investment, real estate sales) are lower than the previous values. There are three highlights: strong actual growth, stable supply - demand, and faster - than - expected consumption recovery. There are also three weaknesses: low fixed - asset investment, weak real estate, and low price center [8]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - Supply shows no significant reduction, with the weekly output rising to 16,630 tons and the开工 rate reaching 48%. Demand is weak, and inventory has shifted from slight destocking to restocking, with the SMM weekly inventory at 132,000 tons. The price of lithium ore has dropped rapidly, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is in shock adjustment, and silver is in shock decline. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][19][21]. 3.2.3 Copper - The decline in internal and external inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 1. There are macro and micro news, such as Fed officials' attitude towards interest rates and new cooperation in the copper industry [23][25]. 3.2.4 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound shock, and alumina should pay attention to the impact of the ore end. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][26][28]. 3.2.5 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure at the upper level. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [29][30]. 3.2.6 Lead - Lead is in range - bound shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [32][33]. 3.2.7 Tin - Tin is in narrow - range shock. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are macro and industry news [35][36][38]. 3.2.8 Stainless Steel and Nickel - Stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward drive. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. There are news about Indonesia's policy adjustment on nickel products and the production progress of nickel - related projects [40][45]. 3.2.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has upstream复产 and oversupply, and polysilicon has a weak fundamental and downward - driving disk. The trend intensities are - 2 and - 1 respectively. There is news about the US anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on metal silicon [50][52]. 3.2.10 Iron Ore - The short - term bullish factors are realized, and the upward drive slows down. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of relevant contracts and spot prices have changed, and there is news about real estate investment [53][54]. 3.2.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are in weak shock due to the continuous decline of raw materials. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about steel production [56][58]. 3.2.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon may have a cost decline and wide - range shock, and silicomanganese is supported by the spot price and in wide - range shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about the iron alloy market [59][61]. 3.2.13 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is in weak shock with the decline of molten iron. Coke is also in shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about coal prices and warehouse receipts [63][66]. 3.2.14 Steam Coal - Steam coal has an increase in coal mine inventory and is in weak shock. The trend intensity is 0. There are quotes for domestic and foreign steam coal and information on positions [67][69]. 3.2.15 Logs - Logs are in weak shock [70].