Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team [1] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Strategy Recommendations - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Strategy Recommendations: - Alumina: Suggested to wait and see [5] - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum): Suggested to go long on dips [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Suggested to go long on dips or use the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [5] Group 3: Core Views - Despite inventory accumulation during the peak season, due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and the opening of domestic policy windows, it's recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [4] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US Treasury real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan [7][8] 2. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with prices in Shanxi and Henan remaining stable. Mining activities are restricted by safety supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ores [11] - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.1 per dry ton week - on - week to $74.9 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea supports the price, but the sharp drop in alumina prices exerts downward pressure. Long - term contract price negotiations for the fourth quarter will start in mid - to late September [11] 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 9,795 tons, an increase of 40 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 85.15% [15] - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 3,010.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 yuan per ton [15] - The national alumina inventory was 371.9 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons week - on - week. The alumina industry is in a high - stable production state, with new capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north gradually entering a stable production state [15] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.2 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 4,442.9 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continued to resume production [22] 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures inventory, and London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31] 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 55.9% [34] - The four - ministry joint notice on standardizing investment promotion behaviors requires the cleanup of local government's illegal tax rebates. The decline in aluminum prices has increased the enthusiasm of scrap aluminum traders to sell, and with the continuous mild recovery of the downstream, orders have recovered moderately, and the starting rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to rise [34] 7. Downstream Start - up - The starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 62.2% [45] - Aluminum profiles: The starting rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 54.6%. Industrial profiles, especially photovoltaic and automotive profiles, showed different trends, while the construction profile market remained sluggish [45] - Aluminum strips: The starting rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 68.2%. High aluminum prices at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream orders, and the increase in scrap aluminum prices may affect future starting rates [45] - Aluminum cables: The starting rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65.2%. Enterprises focused on power grid orders and some photovoltaic alloy cable orders, and purchased raw materials based on rigid demand due to high aluminum prices [49] - Primary aluminum alloy: The starting rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 57.6%. Short - term procurement slowdown in the downstream has affected the starting rate, and although most enterprises are optimistic about the peak season in September, some are more cautious about short - term expansion [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Fed's "preventive" rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support, and the copper price center will gradually rise. In the short term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, considering the cost, the downside space is limited, while the upside needs Guinea's supply changes or macro - sentiment catalysis. It is expected to trade between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overall macro - environment is still slightly positive. The cost of alumina is weak, and demand is in the traditional peak season. However, the inventory is accumulating, so the price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is constrained. The demand is moderately recovering, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supports the spot price. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand shows a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The zinc price is under pressure. In the short term, it may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the fundamentals have limited support for continuous upward movement. It is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The macro - environment has a mixed impact. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in traditional sectors but has some growth in emerging sectors. The fundamentals continue to improve, and the tin price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [9]. - **Nickel**: After the Fed's rate - cut expectation is realized, the macro - sentiment is digested. The industry has limited changes, and the inventory is rising overseas and slightly increasing domestically. The price is expected to be in an interval - volatile range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - environment is weak overseas and positive domestically. The raw material price is firm, but the demand in the peak season fails to meet expectations. The price is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract trading between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - sentiment is gradually digested. The supply path is clear, and the demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remains unchanged at 79,990 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium increases by 15 yuan/ton. The SMM wet - process copper price rises by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increases by 110 yuan/ton, or 6.70% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 40 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreases by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production is 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the electrolytic copper import volume is 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The copper concentrate inventory in domestic ports increases by 3.18 million tons, or 4.59% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rises by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.14%. The import loss increases by 209 yuan/ton. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreases by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production is 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production is 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The electrolytic aluminum import volume in July is 24.83 million tons, and the export volume is 4.10 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increase. The 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots is 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreases by 20 yuan/ton, or 0.09%. The import loss increases by 15.17 yuan/ton. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 15 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production is 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the refined zinc import volume is 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%, and the export volume is 0.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78.45% [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreases by 900 yuan/ton, or 0.33%. The SMM 1 tin premium increases by 50 yuan/ton, or 14.29%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increases by 30.59 dollars/ton, or 19.74% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import volume is 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 is - 179 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss of futures increases by 13.47% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August is 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The refined nickel import volume is 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread remains unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in August is 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume is 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30%, and the export volume is 41.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.07%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production is 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand is 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The total inventory is 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the FOMC meeting, the bullish factors were exhausted, and the Shanghai copper futures price oscillated. The macro - environment showed that the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The previous loose trading for copper may have ended, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The fundamentals were in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provided bottom support, and in the short - term, copper prices oscillated strongly under the loose background. The subsequent upward cycle needed the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract was 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market was in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply - side factors such as the potential restart of a mining company in Guinea and a possible strike, as well as production cuts in Henan due to environmental protection, provided short - term support, but the overall supply was in excess. The demand was weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term main contract was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro - atmosphere was bullish, and the fundamentals improved moderately. The short - term price was expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. If the demand improvement was less than expected, the price might fall back [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and declined with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the procurement cost of recycled aluminum enterprises was high, which supported the price. The demand showed a mild recovery, and the inventory was still accumulating. The short - term main contract was expected to run in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices were generally strong, but Shanghai zinc was relatively weak due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side saw overseas mines entering the production and resumption cycle, and the smelting profit was repaired. The demand entered the peak season, but the domestic and overseas performance was differentiated. The short - term price might be driven up by the macro - environment, but the upward space was limited. The reference range for the main contract was 21500 - 22500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September as expected. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and the demand was weak. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was difficult to make up for the decline in traditional demand. If the supply in Myanmar recovered smoothly, a short - selling strategy could be considered; otherwise, the price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the running range of 265000 - 285000 [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the macro - environment was weak. The spot trading of refined nickel did not change significantly. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was relatively loose, and the price of nickel - iron was strong. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price decreased slightly, and the market trading was average. The macro - environment overseas was weak after the Fed's interest - rate cut, while domestic policies were positive. The raw material prices were firm, and the supply of nickel - iron increased, but the demand for stainless steel had not significantly increased. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 12800 - 13400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the domestic policies had been digested by the market. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state. The supply increased due to new projects and increased lithium - spodumene processing, and the demand was expected to increase in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main - contract price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in August was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.44 million tons week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The alumina production in August was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.3 million tons week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20950 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production in August was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in August was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The galvanizing开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 0.43 million tons week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price was 270200 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in July decreased by 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHEF inventory increased by 124 tons, and the social inventory increased by 108 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous day. The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 400 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 460 tons week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.83 million tons month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.60 million tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.451 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in August was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The lithium carbonate total inventory in August decreased by 366 tons month - on - month, and the downstream inventory increased by 7552 tons month - on - month [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under a loose background. The main contract is expected to range between 80,000 - 82,000 [1] Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if cost support weakens and demand does not improve significantly, prices may decline. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement fails to meet expectations, prices may fall [3] Aluminum Alloy - As the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season approaches, spot prices are expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow further. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4] Zinc - Due to the expected supply surplus, the upside space for Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short term, prices may rise driven by the macro environment, but the fundamental support for continuous upward movement is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 21,800 - 22,800 [7] Tin - Supply remains tight, and with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 [9] Nickel - Macro sentiment is strengthening, costs are supported, and there are no obvious short - term supply - demand contradictions, but the inventory reduction pace has slowed down. In the medium term, the supply surplus will limit the upside space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in a strong - side range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11] Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, raw material prices are firm, and inventory pressure is easing. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - Affected by positive policy information, the market sentiment is strong. The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center ranging from 70,000 - 75,000 [14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 81,120 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1] Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton; alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly [3] Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions remained unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in different regions increased [4] Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. The import loss was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.09 yuan/ton [7] Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.33% to 272,400 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 277.36% to - 132.00 US dollars/ton [9] Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 123,600 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 18.32% to 1,507 yuan/ton [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. Refined nickel imports were 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,200 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 14.29% to 400 yuan/ton [13] Fundamental Data - In August, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.55% to 72,850 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 70,600 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. Lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].

Group 1: Economic Overview - US consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since May, with a preliminary index of 55.4 for September, down 4.8% from August and down 21% year-on-year [1][4] - The current economic conditions index for September is 61.2, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, while the consumer expectations index is at 51.8, down 7.3% month-on-month and 30.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Domestic economic conditions in China remain stable, with industrial production growing by 5.2% year-on-year in August [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - There has been a continuous inflow of imported copper, but expectations for domestic copper supply are decreasing, leading to a build-up in electrolytic copper inventories [1][4] - As of September 15, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons, with inventory rising in regions outside Shanghai [3] - The average price for SMM 1 electrolytic copper is reported between 80,780 and 81,100 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in the premium over the previous trading day [3][5] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - The supply of aluminum has seen a slight increase, while terminal consumption is recovering; however, high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption [1][4] - As of September 15, the domestic mainstream consumption area for electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 63.7 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous week [3][6] - The price for SMM A00 aluminum is reported at 20,950 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan from the previous trading day [3][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The short - term improvement in interest - rate cut expectations boosts copper prices, but the long - term impact of interest - rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reasons and macro background. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectations" [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand stimulation is limited. The price is under pressure from inventory accumulation, but the downside space is relatively limited. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate around the realization of peak - season expectations and actual consumption, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement is less than expected, the price may fall after rising [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5][6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Under the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metal prices are generally strong, but zinc shows relatively weak performance. The supply is expected to be loose, and the upward space is limited, but the price may be driven up by the macro - environment in the short term [8]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is favorable, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [13]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton. The macro - expectations are improved, and the cost is supported, but the peak - season demand has not been significantly released [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Policy windows boost the macro - expectations, and the demand is optimistic, while the supply path is becoming clearer [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.10% to 2,064 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.84 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 296,900 tons, a decrease of 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton, and the alumina average price in various regions decreased slightly. The import profit and loss was - 1,745 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, and the aluminum profile production rate increased by 1.89% to 54%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 485,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 21,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference between scrap and refined aluminum in various regions increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, an increase of 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 3,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.12 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the refined zinc import volume was 17,900 tons, a decrease of 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 40.00% to 350 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a decrease of 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, an increase of 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.22% to 2,300 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.27% to 224,484 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 1.14% to 13,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel net export volume was 343,200 tons, an increase of 22.37% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 72,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.13% to 74,150 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, an increase of 8.25% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Guinea rainy season has affected bauxite mining and transportation, with a decline in bauxite shipments and uncertainties in the复产 of a large mine, supporting ore prices. The alumina production is in a high - stable state, and the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing steadily. Domestic downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the inventory inflection point is basically determined. The overall idea is to go long on dips, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea bauxite prices are stable at $75 per dry ton. Alumina operating capacity increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, and national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons to 44.409 million tons. The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is recovering [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or go long on AD and short on AL [5]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, inflation expectations, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as frequent rainfall. Guinea bauxite prices are stable, and the bauxite shipping volume is decreasing. From mid - to late September, major mining enterprises and alumina plants will start negotiations on the fourth - quarter long - term contract prices [11]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina construction capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 97.55 million tons (an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating rate was 85.1%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,047.5 yuan per ton (a decrease of 53.5 yuan per ton week - on - week). The national alumina inventory was 3.68 million tons (an increase of 71,000 tons week - on - week). Some new production capacities are entering the stable production state, and some roasting furnaces will be under maintenance, but it will not affect the medium - term output [15]. 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and shipping volume, but no specific analysis is provided [17][18][19] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.409 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity is increasing steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou Anshun and the commissioning of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin's replacement capacity basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [22]. 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on electrolytic aluminum processing fees, aluminum prices, power coal prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [26] 08. Inventory - The report presents historical data on the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [28][29][30] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3% week - on - week. Since September, downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, but industry operations are still restricted by factors such as insufficient raw material supply and policy uncertainties [33]. 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum alloy prices, price differences, and import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [36][39][40] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 62.1% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises rose by 1% to 54%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises remained stable at 68.6%, with differentiated product performance [46]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 65.2% week - on - week, supported by existing orders. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1% to 57.6%, with different production performances between large and small enterprises [50].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and impactful work of Gao Wenzhong, a cadre from Shenzhen, who has been actively involved in poverty alleviation and rural revitalization efforts in Debao County, Guangxi, despite facing personal health challenges after a serious accident [6][55][120]. Group 1: Work Style and Commitment - Gao Wenzhong emphasizes the importance of being present in the field to identify real issues, advocating for a hands-on approach to governance [3][4]. - Since his appointment in February 2024, he has consistently engaged with local communities to support rural revitalization and regional coordination [5][12]. - Despite suffering from multiple rib fractures, he returned to work early to continue his efforts in grassroots support [7][55]. Group 2: Economic Development Initiatives - Gao identified the economic stagnation in Debao and focused on retaining existing businesses rather than solely attracting new investments [25][26]. - He led initiatives that resulted in the distribution of 948,000 yuan in employment subsidies, benefiting 474 impoverished individuals [28]. - In 2022, he facilitated investments totaling 181 million yuan from 11 eastern enterprises, creating 736 job opportunities [30]. Group 3: Industry Focus and Resource Utilization - The region's rich mineral resources, particularly aluminum, have been leveraged to establish a sustainable industrial base [31][32]. - Gao coordinated the allocation of 37.61 million yuan in assistance to support the establishment of a recycling aluminum project, which is expected to generate an annual output value of nearly 2 billion yuan [34][37]. - The project has already contributed to an average annual income increase of 40,000 to 70,000 yuan for local residents [36]. Group 4: Community Engagement and Social Impact - Gao has been instrumental in mobilizing resources for local education and healthcare, raising approximately 7 million yuan for equipment donations [68][69]. - He initiated the "Debao Garden Reception Hall" to promote local agricultural products, significantly boosting sales to 77 million yuan in the eastern markets [80][75]. - The establishment of labor service brands and training programs has empowered local residents, leading to over 600,000 yuan in e-commerce sales in the first half of the year [97][96]. Group 5: Long-term Vision and Talent Development - Gao stresses the importance of talent cultivation and changing local mindsets to ensure sustainable development beyond external assistance [89][90]. - He has implemented a "team-style" talent support mechanism, enhancing cooperation in education, healthcare, and industry [93][94]. - The ongoing efforts aim to create a self-sustaining model for rural revitalization, focusing on internal motivation and community involvement [112][119].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].