Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2909, the closing price was 2843, down 66 or -2.27%, with a trading volume of 39,229 and an open interest of 21,965, a decrease of 15,222. For the 2510 contract, the previous settlement price was 2997, the closing price was 2930, down 67 or -2.24%, with a trading volume of 542,102 and an open interest of 528,944, an increase of 13,068. For the 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the closing price was 2960, down 87 or -2.86%, with a trading volume of 190,173 and an open interest of 257,219, an increase of 40,608 [7] - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 10 - contract fell 2.24%. The peak - season spot price started late this year, and the market pressure emerged in late July. The price correction in July was about 0.5 yuan/jin, indicating large supply pressure. In August, the expected spot price rebound did not occur, and the price continued to be under pressure [7] Operational Suggestions - Do not recommend investors to buy at the bottom as there is no technical support and no sign of spot price increase. Wait for the increase in culling volume and the boost from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, which may bring a rebound, but it is difficult to time. In general, the egg market has oversupply. If the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter. Short - term fluctuations may be large, so it is recommended to avoid risks [7] Group 3: Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase, with continuous growth for 7 months [8] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024. The recent low breeding profits have started to change farmers' attitude towards capacity expansion, and the year - on - year decrease in July was the first this year [8][9] - **Culling**: The culling volume has been increasing recently, the price of culled chickens is under great pressure, and the culling age has been significantly advanced. However, more and longer - term over - culling is needed to restore the supply - demand balance [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Eggs [1] Report Core View - The peak season for egg prices started late this year, and the market pressure became evident in late July. The supply pressure is significant, and the expected price rebound in August did not materialize. Near - month and main - contract futures prices have dropped significantly. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom currently. A rebound may occur after the increase in culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but it is difficult to time. The overall egg market has an oversupply situation. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if low egg prices affect subsequent replenishment, and short - term market fluctuations are large, so risk avoidance is advised [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The national egg price rose today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 2896, down 18 (-0.62%), with a trading volume of 23,595 and an open interest of 37,187 (down 8,178). The 2510 contract closed at 2975, down 36 (-1.20%), with a trading volume of 554,418 and an open interest of 515,876 (up 44,842). The 2511 contract closed at 3028, down 28 (-0.92%), with a trading volume of 117,461 and an open interest of 216,611 (up 16,616) [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy at the bottom currently. Wait for the increase in culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货 to potentially drive a rebound, but it is difficult to time. Avoid risks in the short - term as the market has large fluctuations [8] 2. Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase, showing a continuous upward trend for 7 months [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024, but still a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years. The decrease in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9] - **Culling Situation**: In the three weeks up to August 21, the national culling volume showed an upward trend. As of August 21, the average culling age was 500 days, 6 days earlier than last week and last month [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, and in 2024, China's annual power generation reached 10,086.9 billion kWh, ranking first in the world and accounting for 32.27% of global power generation. Attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in the upstream energy sector [1]. - On August 26, the State Council conducted the 15th special study on "accelerating the innovative development of service trade and actively cultivating new drivers for foreign trade development." The focus is on the development of emerging import - export business in the service industry [1]. 3. Summary by Directory A. Middle - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: In July, China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time. In 2024, China's annual power generation was 10,086.9 billion kWh, ranking first in the world. Attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in the upstream energy sector [1]. - **Service Industry**: On August 26, the State Council carried out the 15th special study. The Prime Minister pointed out to expand high - quality service imports, promote institutional opening - up of service trade, and enhance the competitiveness of service exports, especially in emerging fields [1]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of glass in the black industry is falling; the price of eggs in the agricultural industry is falling; the price of PTA in the chemical industry is rising, while the price of urea is falling [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The PX operating rate in the chemical industry is rising; the coal consumption of power plants in the energy industry is increasing; the operating rate of pig products in the agricultural industry is rising [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities in the real estate industry are seasonally falling; the number of domestic flights in the service industry remains stable at a high level [2]. C. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On August 26, the spot price of corn was 2,305.7 yuan/ton, down 0.43% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.5 yuan/kg, down 3.42% year - on - year; the spot price of palm oil was 9,638.0 yuan/ton, down 0.54% year - on - year; the spot price of cotton was 15,330.8 yuan/ton, up 0.57% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of pork was 20.0 yuan/kg, down 0.99% year - on - year; the spot price of copper was 79,638.3 yuan/ton, up 0.68% year - on - year; the spot price of zinc was 22,276.0 yuan/ton, up 0.44% year - on - year [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of aluminum was 20,790.0 yuan/ton (H frequency) and 16,868.8 yuan/ton (daily frequency), up 0.89% and 1.20% year - on - year respectively; the spot price of nickel was 121,750.0 yuan/ton, down 0.15% year - on - year [37]. - **Ferrous Metals**: The spot price of rebar was 3,247.0 yuan/ton, up 0.03% year - on - year; the spot price of iron ore was 795.9 yuan/ton, up 1.94% year - on - year; the spot price of wire rod was 3,405.0 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the spot price of glass was 13.9 yuan/square meter, down 2.80% year - on - year [37]. - **Non - metals**: The spot price of natural rubber was 15,066.7 yuan/ton, up 0.72% year - on - year; the China Plastics City price index was 804.2, down 0.32% year - on - year [37]. - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.8 US dollars/barrel, up 2.18% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 68.8 US dollars/barrel, up 3.30% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,910.0 yuan/ton, down 1.21% year - on - year; the coal price was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 0.13% year - on - year [37]. - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of PTA was 4,922.5 yuan/ton, up 4.16% year - on - year; the spot price of polyethylene was 7,440.0 yuan/ton, up 0.02% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1,712.5 yuan/ton, down 3.04% year - on - year; the spot price of soda ash was 1,290.0 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the national cement price index was 130.0, up 0.05% year - on - year [37]. - **Real Estate**: The building materials composite index was 115.2 points, down 0.05% year - on - year; the national concrete price index was 93.0 points, down 0.29% year - on - year [37].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently in a state of oversupply, with significant pressure on prices. The spot market has been weak, and the futures market has also shown a downward trend. In the short term, the market may experience large fluctuations, and it is recommended to avoid risks. A potential rebound may occur after increased culling and the demand from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but timing is crucial. If low egg prices lead to a decrease in subsequent replenishment, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - Egg futures contracts showed different trends. The 2509 contract closed at 2920, down 6 points or 0.21%, with a trading volume of 87,006 and an open interest of 59,422 (a decrease of 10,271). The 2510 contract closed at 3033, down 2 points or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 and an open interest of 434,281 (a decrease of 18,629). The 2511 contract closed at 3100, up 10 points or 0.32%, with a trading volume of 119,383 and an open interest of 179,758 (an increase of 3,336). - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main consuming areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, also down 0.10 yuan/jin [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: - Due to the weak spot market and the lack of technical support in the futures market, it is not recommended to buy at the bottom. A potential rebound may occur after increased culling and the demand from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but it is difficult to time. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the market may fluctuate greatly [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, showing an upward trend for 7 consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and the same period in 2024 (41.68 million). Although it was a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years, the low breeding profits in the past two months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset, and the decrease in July was the first this year [9][10]. - **Culling**: The culling volume has been increasing recently, with the average culling age at 500 days as of August 21, 6 days earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than last month. However, more and longer - term over - culling is needed to restore the supply - demand balance [8][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the 09 and 10 contracts, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg farming profits, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [12][13][15]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price dropped significantly in early August, and the start of the peak - season spot market was late this year. The market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - storage egg outflow hit the market. The supply pressure is large, with a greater price correction this year compared to previous years. The peak - season price increase logic is weakening, causing the near - month contracts to decline continuously. The 09 contract has squeezed out the premium, and the futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg price affects the subsequent replenishment volume [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract dropped 4.19%, the 2510 contract fell 2.21%, and the 2511 contract decreased 2.60%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.42 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The current supply pressure is high, and the peak - season price increase logic is weakening. The near - month contracts are under pressure, and the futures market sentiment is negative. The large - scale direction of near - month contracts may be bearish, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may occur in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of July, the national in - production laying hens' monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, showing an upward trend, with a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. The decrease in the replenishment volume in July was the first this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week as of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the egg market, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between egg 09 - 10, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, and the seasonal trend of egg 09 [16][13][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] Core Viewpoints - The egg price dropped significantly in early August, and the start of the peak - season spot market was late this year. The market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - storage egg release hit the market. The current supply pressure is high, with a larger - than - usual price correction. The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and the overall sentiment in the futures market is extremely low. The short - term trend of near - month contracts is likely to be bearish, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter if the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment [8] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Pre - settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2509 | 3023 | 2974 | 3058 | 2961 | 3000 | - 23 | - 0.76% | 107462 | 81127 | - 10672 | | Egg 2510 | 3083 | 3050 | 3109 | 3045 | 3072 | - 11 | - 0.36% | 512726 | 408484 | - 2556 | | Egg 2511 | 3174 | 3143 | 3184 | 3110 | 3136 | - 38 | - 1.20% | 111117 | 156878 | 13795 | - The average price in the main production areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.45 yuan/jin, also down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 09 contract fell 0.76% [7] Operation Suggestions - The near - month contracts are likely to be bearish in the long - run. Taking long positions in bands may face high risks. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter if the low egg price is reflected in subsequent replenishment data [8] Industry News Laying Hens Inventory - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] Chick Hatchlings - In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. The replenishment volume in July decreased year - on - year for the first time this year [9] Hen Culling - In the three weeks up to August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend, and the current absolute value is close to the level of the previous three years. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, egg 09 contract basis, egg 09 - 10 spread, average price in the main egg production areas, and egg 09 seasonal trend [12][13][16]