4月30日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数集体高开，消费板块持续活跃。 相关ETF方面，截至发稿，港股消费ETF（159735）开盘后震荡走强，现涨0.77%。成分股中，周大福 涨超2%，蒙牛乳业、百威亚太、银河娱乐、美团-W等股涨幅居前。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 消息面上，据国家发展改革委微信公众号，近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方 追加下达今年第二批810亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续大力支持消费品以旧换新。下一步，国家发展 改革委将充分发挥"两新"部际协调机制作用，强化统筹推进和跟踪调度，督促各地各有关部门加快已拨 资金审核兑付，切实减轻企业垫资压力，确保真金白银优惠直达消费者，推动消费品以旧换新政策发挥 更大效果。 中信证券表示，今年以来我国消费政策全面升级创新，近期细分领域政策相继出台，政策体系逐步完 善。近日国家税务总局发布离境退税管理办法修订细则，推动前期离境退税"即买即退"推广政策落地。 根据我们测算，乐观假 ...

// 热点聚焦 // 5、 一季度5399家公司披露季报：营收16.83万亿元（同比降0.38%），归母净利润1.49万亿元，同比增长3.47%。4078家盈利（占比76%），2956家净利 润正增长（占比55%），其中764家增幅超100%、474家增50%-100%、1718家低增速（<50%）。负增长企业降至2443家（45.6%），盈利结构持续优 化。 // 国内宏观 // 1、 商务部就波音公司飞回拟交付飞机答记者问指出，美方挥舞关税大棒严重冲击全球产业链供应链稳定，扰乱国际航空运输市场，很多企业无法 开展正常贸易投资活动，中国的相关航空公司、美国波音公司都深受其害。中方愿继续支持两国企业开展正常的商业合作，希美方能倾听企业的呼 声，为企业正常贸易投资活动创造稳定可预期的环境。 1、 国家主席习近平在上海考察时强调，上海承担着建设国际科技创新中心的历史使命，要抢抓机遇，以服务国家战略为牵引，不断增强科技创新策源功 能和高端产业引领功能，加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地。 2、 外交部回应"美财长称关税战升级的责任在中方"：中方多次阐明关税战、贸易战没有赢家；这场关税战是美方发起的，如果美方想通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's economy is showing signs of recovery and high-quality development despite facing external uncertainties, with key indicators reflecting positive trends [2][3]. Economic Performance - In Q1, Shenzhen's GDP reached 8950.49 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, although this is below the annual target of 5.5% [2][3]. - The total import and export volume in Q1 was 9901.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8%, with exports dropping by 8.7% [2][3]. - The second industry grew by 3.7%, with industrial output increasing by 4.2%, indicating resilience in the face of external challenges [3]. Industrial Growth - Emerging industries such as low-altitude economy and robotics are experiencing rapid growth, with production of civilian drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 48.2%, 40.1%, and 38% respectively [3]. - Industrial investment grew by 1.4% despite a 2.1% decline in fixed asset investment, driven by a 61.8% increase in industrial technology transformation investment [3]. Consumer Trends - Retail sales in Q1 reached 2403.17 billion yuan, growing by 3.1%, with a notable increase in consumer traffic and tourism [4]. - The number of inbound and outbound travelers at Shenzhen's ports increased by 15.2%, with airport traffic rising by 32% [4]. Foreign Trade Resilience - After a slowdown in January and February, March saw a strong rebound in foreign trade, with a monthly import and export total of 3870.48 billion yuan, growing by 12.3% [5]. - Shenzhen is implementing policies to stabilize foreign trade growth, including support for market expansion and import scale [5].

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 75.29%, up by 1.86% from the previous week[7] - The high furnace operating rate rose to 84.35%, reflecting a 0.77% increase[7] - The full tire steel operating rate decreased to 62.46%, down by 2.97% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue decreased to 216 million CNY, down by 2,000,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell to 61,788.25 units, a decrease of 4,001 units[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars dropped to 73,632.75 units, down by 5,425.55 units[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 167.19 million square meters, up by 18.21% from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities rose to 7.5%, an increase of 3.27%[7] - Excavator sales reached 19,517 units, a significant increase of 7,877 units compared to the previous month[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased to 1,347.84, down by 22.74 points[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products showed a slight decline, with the wholesale price index at 118.13, down by 0.69%[8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices[8] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased to 1,057.37 million trips, down by 5.02%[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 12,847.57 flights, down by 92.29 flights[8] - The China Road Logistics Price Index increased slightly to 1,050.75, up by 0.61[8]

Economic Overview - China's economy showed a strong start in the first quarter, with key indicators such as industrial output, service sector growth, retail sales, and fixed asset investment all improving compared to the previous year [1][2] - The resilience and internal stability of the Chinese economy are continuously strengthening despite challenges from the international environment [1] Industrial Performance - In the first quarter, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year, contributing 36.3% to macroeconomic growth [2] - Profits for large-scale industrial enterprises returned to positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and manufacturing profits rose by 7.6% [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly in railways, shipping, aerospace, and other transport equipment, showed significant revenue and profit growth, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force for the economy [2] Trade and Policy Responses - China's foreign trade demonstrated strong resilience in the first quarter, with import and export volumes reaching historical highs for the same period [3] - The government is actively enhancing open policies and platforms to create a "safety zone" against external shocks [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted both subsidized and non-subsidized product consumption, suggesting a need for further promotion of this initiative to boost consumer spending and innovation [3] Employment and Economic Stability - The focus on stabilizing employment remains crucial, with an emphasis on key industries and groups, combining short-term support with long-term optimization [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of various aspects of the economy from April 19th to April 25th, 2025. The overall fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing [10][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.2 points (previous value: 125.1 points), with a year - on - year growth of 3.8% (previous value: 3.7%), and the year - on - year increase has rebounded. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is long, and the signal factor has dropped to 5.5% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][10]. 2. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Drops Slightly - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.0, with a year - on - year growth of 3.8% (previous value: 3.7%). The electric furnace operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.7%); the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (previous value: 91.0%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.1% (previous value: 78.4%); the full - tire operating rate is 62.5% (previous value: 65.4%); the PTA operating rate is 80.0% (previous value: 76.7%); the PX operating rate is 77.4% (previous value: 78.2%) [10][12][17]. 3. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remain Negative Year - on - Year - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 45.4, with a year - on - year decline of 13.2% (previous value: 13.5%). The commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities has increased to 22.0 million square meters, and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities has dropped to 4.3% [10][12][31]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Slightly - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 116.6, with a year - on - year decline of 0.8% (previous value: 1.5%). The operating rate of petroleum installations is 30.7% (previous value: 28.7%) [10][12][39]. 5. Exports: Export Commodity Prices Rise Slightly - The high - frequency index of exports is 144.9, with a year - on - year growth of 6.1% (previous value: 6.7%). The CCFI index has increased to 1122 points, and the RJ/CRB commodity price index has increased to 296.5 points [1][10][49]. 6. Consumption: Movie Box Office Remains Below the Same Period in Previous Years - The high - frequency index of consumption is 119.4, with a year - on - year growth of 0.9% (previous value: 0.7%). The average daily movie box office has increased to 35.62 million yuan, and the average daily retail sales of passenger car manufacturers on April 25th are 54,522 vehicles [2][10][60]. 7. CPI: Pork Prices Rise Slightly - The predicted month - on - month CPI is 0.1% (previous value: - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of pork is 20.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.7 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.3 yuan/kg) [2][10][68]. 8. PPI: Non - Ferrous Metal Prices Rise - The predicted month - on - month PPI is - 0.3% (previous value: - 0.3%). The ex - works price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi origin) is 658 yuan/ton (previous value: 664 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,371 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9,123 US dollars/ton) [2][10][76]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Transport Rises, Freight Remains Flat - The high - frequency index of transportation is 126.5, with a year - on - year growth of 5.9% (previous value: 5.5%). The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities has increased to 39.54 million person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index remains flat at 1050 points, and the number of domestic flights has increased to 12,780 [2][11][87]. 10. Inventory: Steel Stocks Continue to Decline - The high - frequency index of inventory is 159.3, with a year - on - year growth of 6.6% (previous value: 6.4%). The total inventory of soda ash has dropped to 1.691 million tons [2][11][95]. 11. Financing: Net Financing of Government Bonds Rises - The high - frequency index of financing is 224.7, with a year - on - year growth of 14.7% (previous value: 14.1%). The cumulative net financing of local bonds has increased to 162.5 billion yuan, the cumulative net financing of credit bonds has increased to 115.9 billion yuan, and the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate has dropped to 1.07% [3][11][108].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Consumption ETF (513970) rising by 0.66% as of 13:15 [1] - Notable individual stocks included Pop Mart, which surged by 11%, and other companies like Vitasoy International and Bosideng, which increased by over 5% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the release of over 160 billion yuan for consumer incentives, with an additional 140 billion yuan expected, aimed at boosting consumption [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (513970) has reached a scale of 1.708 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products [2] - The ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Consumption Index, which includes various sectors such as lifestyle and service consumption, catering to a new generation focused on emotional consumption and service experience [2] - As of April 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Consumption Index account for 58.63% of the index, including companies like Yum China and Anta Sports [2]

核 心 观 点 行业比较：电子和机械设备对美敞口更大。 我国对美国电子商品出口最多，而 交运设备关税税率最高 ，加 征后高达 168% 。从中观行业来看，具体到我国对美出口一级行业，电子、轻工、机械与纺织出口依赖度及 份额均较高。从美国进口来看，电子与轻工对我国进口依赖度与进口份额均较高。综合来看， 电子和机械设 备对美敞口更大 。 上游原材料、制造业受冲击严重，后续去产能对冲。 ① 电 子行业的营收对美敞口较大， 若对美出口全部 消失，对行业总营收的影响约为 3.2% 左右，成本传导为主要机制，后续国内产业政策或将推动国产替代，政 策补贴提振消费电子。 ②机械设备行业的营收对美敞口也较大， 如果对美出口全部消失，对行业总营收的影 响为 4.2% 左右，或将加速行业重组。当前国内设备更新政策已经前置推出，同时城市更新等稳增长政策也有 利于扩大机械设备总需求。往后看，产业升级或将加速。 ③交运设备行业的营收对美敞口较小， 即便对美出 口全部消失，对行业总营收的影响也仅为 1.9% 左右，不过行业利润空间或将被挤压。当前国内促进汽车消费 的相关政策也已经前置落地，后续促内需仍有空间，扩外需方面，"一带一路"共建国 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.20% [1] - The sectors showing the highest gains included departure tax refunds and controllable nuclear fusion, while sectors such as quartz and dairy powder experienced declines [1] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities indicated that the investment value of Hong Kong stocks remains high in the medium to long term, supported by diminishing impacts of U.S. tariff policies and a rebound in investor risk appetite. The firm expects stable profit growth in Hong Kong stocks due to proactive macro policies [3] - CITIC Construction pointed out that the market is in a phase of fluctuation, but short-term risk appetite is increasing, leading to a potential shift towards growth sectors. Key industries to focus on include banking, electricity, beauty, and automotive [4] - Huatai Securities noted that the incremental policy window for the real estate sector is gradually opening, with a focus on the implementation pace of proactive macro and fiscal policies, particularly in first-tier cities [5] - Guojin Securities reported that new business for universal insurance products will allow adjustable minimum guaranteed interest rates, which will help mitigate interest spread loss risks and enhance market order regulation [6]

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 项目基本面经营分化差异加剧。1）产业园： 产业园区供需压力进一步加大，大部分项目主动或被动进入降价竞争。我们统计板块收入同环比分别下降 11.8%和7.7%。由于供需端矛盾尚未缓解，我们认为产业园后续经营或仍将持续波动。 2）物流仓储： 大部分项目通过下调租金应对供给冲击和存量竞 争，促使同口径下板块收入重回下降通道，同环比下滑4.8%和3.6%。供需再平衡过程中，一季度特朗普关税不确定性或也将影响物流仓储租户行为。 3） 保租房： 保租房板块受宏观经济影响较小，一季度板块收入仅出现小幅波动，出租率维持较高水平，租金水平变化则出现小幅分化，其中政策性保租房 租金保持稳定或略有上涨，市场化项目则出现环比下滑，但整体仍符合预期。 4）消费： 得益于各地促消费政策，消费REITs一季度开局良好，我们测算 可比口径收入环比上升1.7%，收入完成度较好。 5）高速： 受低基数与路网变化的影响，高速项目表现分化明显，往后看我们认为板块仍有望延续稳中 向好态势，但路网变化对于单条路产影响较大，应持续关注分流影响。 6）市政环保： 生物质发电项目吨发表现、成本管控好于预期，水务受合肥 ...