- The report uses the Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding by analyzing the price and trading volume changes of industry indices over the past week[3][15] - The first quadrant represents industries with rising prices and volumes, while the third quadrant represents industries with falling prices and volumes. Points outside the ellipse indicate industries with a price and trading volume deviation confidence level exceeding 99%, signifying short-term significant crowding[15] - Last week, the beauty care and food & beverage industries showed significant trading crowding[3][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it follows a relative rating system based on performance against the CSI 300 index [6]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been experiencing a continuous pullback since February, leading to weakened trading sentiment. Institutions with liquidity needs and sensitivity to net value are advised to adopt a cautious approach and selectively allocate investments [4]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted post the Two Sessions, causing potential adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on ultra-long credit bonds and provides a market outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, with the CSI 300 also down by 0.4%. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.6% [3]. - The best-performing sectors included coal (+4.2%), beauty and personal care (+1.6%), steel (+1.2%), utilities (+0.9%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.8%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were machinery (-2.6%), electronics (-2.4%), computers (-2.1%), automobiles (-1.9%), and media (-1.8%) [2][3]. Important Insights - The report discusses the ultra-long credit bonds market, indicating that the peak is approaching and suggesting a selective allocation strategy [4]. - The market's delayed pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to further adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report highlights the impact of a strong equity market on the bond market, suggesting a need for cautious positioning [4].

晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（3 月 7 日-3 月 13 日），重要指数多数收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 0.66%，创业板指收跌 3.07%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.13%，中证 500 收跌 0.89%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 8.10 万 亿元，较前五个交易日减少 ...

Group 1 - The overall profitability of the A-share market is weak, with cumulative net profit for non-financial companies down by 3.7% year-on-year, while operating revenue increased by 3.8% [6][15][12] - As of March 8, 2024, 1,066 listed companies have disclosed their performance reports, with 47% having previously issued earnings forecasts [6][12] - The performance of the CSI 500 index is superior, with a net profit growth of 8.7%, outperforming small-cap indices [15][16] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors are leading, with continuous acceleration in year-on-year growth [23][24] - In the upstream raw materials sector, oil, petrochemicals, and coal show strong performance, while non-ferrous metals experienced a slight decline in Q3 2024 but showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024 [23][24] - The TMT sector, particularly the electronics industry, continues to thrive due to AI-driven demand, with revenue and performance showing positive growth for four consecutive quarters [27][28] Group 3 - The banking and non-bank financial sectors have a high proportion of companies with both revenue and performance growth, indicating a favorable economic environment [36][39] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, all five industries reported negative net profit growth, with only basic chemicals and defense industries showing slight recovery [28][29] - The consumer goods sector, particularly pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, has shown significant growth, while textiles and retail remain weak [28][29] Group 4 - The expected net profit growth for the entire A-share market in 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, with non-financial companies expected to see a 5% increase [23][24] - The performance of the component and aerospace equipment industries remains high, with significant improvements noted in the battery and military electronics sectors [42][46] - The overall performance of the main board and growth enterprise board is significantly better than that of the sci-tech innovation board and the northern stock exchange [15][16]

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 融资融券 截至3月10日，市场最新融资余额为19089.71亿元，较上个交易日环比增加97.13亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有27个行业融资余额增加，电子行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加21.61亿元；融 资余额增加居前的行业还有机械设备、有色金属、电力设备等，融资余额分别增加14.86亿元、10.63亿 元、10.50亿元；融资余额减少的行业有4个，通信、计算机、公用事业等行业融资余额减少较多，分别 减少1.69亿元、1.23亿元、5202.32万元。 以幅度进行统计，社会服务行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为90.32亿元，环比增长1.68%，其次 是机械设备、有色金属、银行行业，环比增幅分别为1.53%、1.36%、1.12%；融资余额环比降幅居前的 行业有美容护理、通信、公用事业等，最新融资余额分别有60.06亿元、702.85亿元、445.17亿元，分别 下降0.25%、0.24%、0.12%。（数据宝） 3月10日各行业融资余额环比变动 融资融券、杠杆资金 ...

人工智能突破降本提效，服务业 智能体涌现应用场景 核心观点 我们认为本轮 DeepSeek 取得的突破预示着人工智能进入算法优 化阶段并且可能迎接 AI 的摩尔定律时代，应用 AI 的成本将急剧 降低。进入门槛的降低会带动各行各业参与到应用环节，开发相 应的智能体也可能改变服务业态中商家与消费者的互动关系。整 体而言，本轮技术革命能够推动第三产业的蓬勃发展，我们看好 具有有效数据积累、关注服务质量提升的商社行业。 事件： AI 的摩尔定律时代可能到来，开发服务业智能体的可行性大幅提 升。DeepSeek 取得的突破标志着大模型发展从算力提升向算法优 化迈进，可预期的未来使用 AI 的成本仍将继续快速下降，经济 可行性大幅提升。AI 智能体的开发有可能实现即时性、低成本、 小型化等诸多特性，同时技术进步也会带动经济向第三产业继续 发展，带动服务业各类业态的长期成长。我们认为决定特定服务 业使用 AI 带来的提升与否主要取决于数据有效性、场景随机性 和信息对称度这三个要素。 AI 应用将助力商社消费产品、运营及流量逻辑优化重塑。餐饮酒 店等场景服务除了降本增效以外，还可以实现精准营销；旅游出 行等流程服务可以利用 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the power equipment, real estate, and banking sectors present a favorable risk-return profile [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring industry rotation through volume indicators and crowding risk assessments [4][5] Industry Rotation Perspective 1: Volume Indicators - The core logic suggests that an increase in trading volume indicates a divergence in market opinions, potentially signaling a trend reversal [9] - In December 2022 and January 2023, most industries showed negative turnover rate slopes, while February 2023 saw a positive trend, particularly in the computer and power equipment sectors [10] - Industries with buy signals based on volume include power equipment, real estate, beauty care, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and banking [10][11] Industry Rotation Perspective 2: Crowding Risk Indicators - The crowding indicator reflects the degree of trading activity overheating, serving as a warning for potential risks [13] - Industries at risk due to high transaction concentration include machinery, computers, and home appliances [13][14] Volume Buy Signal Industry Details and ETFs Power Equipment - The power equipment sector shows strong market attractiveness with a notable volume performance [19] - The crowding level is acceptable, with some companies driving volume without affecting the entire sector [19] - Relevant ETFs include those tracking solar power leaders and new energy indices [20] Real Estate - The real estate sector ranks in the middle for volume performance, with a relatively low crowding level indicating a good risk-return profile [24] - Relevant ETFs track indices such as mainland real estate and the full index of real estate [26] Beauty Care - The beauty care sector ranks in the middle for volume, with a high internal sentiment concentration indicating a favorable risk-return profile [29] Agriculture - The agriculture sector ranks high in volume performance, with a good risk-return profile due to low crowding levels [32] - Relevant ETFs track indices related to modern agriculture and livestock [33] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector ranks high in volume performance, with a good risk-return profile as well [36] - Relevant ETFs include those tracking various pharmaceutical indices [38] Banking - The banking sector ranks low in volume performance but shows a good risk-return profile with low crowding levels [43] - Relevant ETFs track indices such as the China Securities Banking Index [45]

执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 3 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] [Table_Industry] 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 蜜雪冰城 IPO 融资认购额创港股历史纪录 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（2 月第 4 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：门店拓展不及预期、需求减弱、行业竞争加剧、宏 观经济增长放缓等风险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（% ...

2月28日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3320.9点，下跌1.98%；深证成指收报10611.24点，下跌2.89%；创业板指收报2170.39点，下跌3.82%。 两市合计成交18670.24亿元，较上一交易日减少1375.61亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出超1140亿元 5.机构龙虎榜 | | 机构买卖个股情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券简称 | 日涨跌幅 | 机构净买入 | | | | 额(万元) | | 圣阳股份 | -3. 74% | 9881. 03 | | 东方错业 | 10. 00% | 6827. 73 | | 博实结 | -1.94% | 6261.79 | | 宏景科技 | 20. 01% | 2961. 28 | | GQY视讯 | 20. 06% | 2466. 02 | | 大位科技 | 6. 31% | 1582. 50 | | 天成自控 | -10. 01% | 1237. 10 | | 汉威科技 | -15. 13% | -211.07 | | 江苏吴中 | -10. 05% | -568. 04 | | 中电兴发 | 9.96% ...

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 17 日 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 《哪吒 2》助力"谷子"消费热潮 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（2 月第 2 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：行业竞争加剧，终端需求疲软，宏观经济增长放缓， 重点 IP 热度波动的风险等。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（ ...