该行续指，明年影响美股的重要变量包含关税演变、货币政策、劳动市场与期中选举。预期第一季受关 税不确定性、货币政策不如预期、景气下行及就业转弱的影响可能最明显，股市偏震荡下行;第二季开 始反映特朗普为选情考虑而减轻关税，以及经济逐渐走向见底、货币政策趋于明朗而股市回升;并在第 四季选举前后开始有望录得较可观的升幅。 对于亚洲市场，该行对日股明年展望正面，因日本终于摆脱通缩心态，进入通胀环境下的经济正常化， 企业敢加价、家庭愿意消费，有助企业收入和盈利改善，资本效率提升亦推动估值上调和外资进驻。企 业改革也确实见到成效，股本回报率(ROE)、资产回报率(ROA)、市帐率(PBR)、股息支付率皆上升，交 叉持股下降，以及企业持续增加股票回购等。 智通财经APP获悉，凯基发布12月最新市场走势分析，对于中国市场，2026年中国资产重估仍有望延 续，港股将继续受惠。凯基指，香港经济正摆脱困境，金融业率先回暖，出口展现韧性，房市逐步走出 阴霾，旅游业加速复苏;美联储减息趋势不改，利好港股表现;港股估值仍低，恒生指数当前动态PE只有 11.5倍，离历次上升趋势高点仍有较大差距，且随着中概股回归以及A股科技企业纷纷加速在港二 ...

Economic Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for 2026 to ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - The focus has shifted from "stability while seeking progress" to "stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency," indicating a stronger emphasis on the quality and effectiveness of long-term growth [2][4] Economic Performance and Challenges - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, with a probability of meeting the annual target of around 5.0%, but the growth rate fell to 4.8% in the third quarter, highlighting weakening growth momentum and structural issues [4] - Key economic challenges include limited consumer spending power, insufficient innovation capacity, and pressures on the real economy from rising costs and financing constraints [4][6] Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, with an emphasis on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [5][6] - Experts suggest maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% to signal continued fiscal expansion and stabilize social expectations [6] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The monetary policy will focus on structural tools, with recent adjustments including rate cuts and the introduction of new monetary policy frameworks [8][9] - The emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" indicates a shift towards addressing medium- to long-term structural issues rather than solely relying on traditional counter-cyclical measures [9] Domestic Demand and Risk Management - The meeting stresses the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth and the need for innovative and high-quality development [11] - There is a focus on addressing key risks in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, with proposals for systemic policy measures to stabilize the housing market [14]

未来半个月A股或重演2020行情！政策资金齐发力，历史会惊人相似？ 2025年A股的年底收官战太有看头了！最近不少老股民翻出2020年的K线图直呼" deja vu "——同样是年 底政策密集加码，同样是资金疯狂涌入，连板块轮动的节奏都像复制粘贴。距离2025年收官只剩半个 月，难道当年那波从3000点一路冲到3400点的行情，真要在A股再次上演？ 政策"复刻"2020：4%赤字率+降准降息，宽松力度超预期 2020年牛市的核心推手是"政策放水"，而2025年的政策力度只能用"有过之而无不及"来形容。2025年3 月政府工作报告明确，赤字率拟按4%安排，比上年提高1个百分点，还发行4.4万亿元地方政府专项 债、1.3万亿元超长期特别国债，新增政府债务总规模达11.86万亿元（来源：中国政府网），这可是实 打实的财政"真金白银"托底。 货币政策更是直接"抄作业"2020年的宽松套路：2025年5月央行一口气降准0.5个百分点，释放长期流动 性约1万亿元，还下调再贷款利率、公积金贷款利率，7天期逆回购操作利率降至1.4%（来源：光明 网）。更关键的是，央行专门设立8000亿元额度支持资本市场，金融监管总局还调降保 ...

Core Insights - The foot care industry in Ziyang, Shaanxi Province, has transformed from a local skill into a significant economic driver, with over 6,000 brand stores nationwide and a focus on poverty alleviation through skill training [1][2] - The local government has invested over 45 million yuan in free skill training programs, including foot care and e-commerce, to support the community [1] - The industry has expanded beyond foot care to include complementary services like massage and foot baths, creating a complex consumption ecosystem [2] Financial Support and Development - The People's Bank of China has issued 1.034 billion yuan in loans to support the agricultural and small business sectors in Ziyang, facilitating financial assistance across the entire foot care industry chain [2] - Local financial institutions have provided a total of 1.76 billion yuan in loans specifically for the foot care and foot bath industry, benefiting over 4,500 practitioners [3] Industry Growth and Global Expansion - The "Ziyang Foot Care Master" brand has captured over 30% of the national market, generating an annual output value exceeding 30 billion yuan, with labor income from this sector accounting for 70% of the county's total labor income [3] - Companies like Yuanyuan Group and Wu's Foot Care have emerged as leading enterprises, with over 24,000 foot care shops established [3] - The industry is gaining international recognition, with Yuanyuan Group expanding into markets like the United States and Vietnam, promoting traditional Chinese foot care techniques abroad [4]

2026年，对于英国经济而言，一个悬而未决的核心问题是消费能否最终摆脱低迷。研究认为家庭会增加 消费，然而近期情况表明未必如此。持续的谨慎态度可能意味着明年英国经济增速会低于1%。 政治是经济前景面临的另一个不确定因素。首相斯塔默会不会下台？财政大臣里夫斯是否会被撤换？这 些猜测可能会在2026年继续发酵。最新预算案出台后，英国的公共财政依然脆弱不堪。如果执政的工党 领导层放松财政纪律，投资者对英国债务轨迹的担忧会再度浮现。 研究预计进入2026年，经济环比增速会有所加快，季度平均增速预计为0.3%。这意味着年增长率为 1.2%，低于2025年的1.4%，去年上半年经济活动的前置给全年经济增长带来了提振。 2026年通胀率预计会从2025年的3.4%降至2.3%，主要是由于明年4月年度同比数据会剔除多项一次性因 素。政府在预算案中提出要降低能源价格，这意味着年度CPI涨幅会从春季起逐步回归2%的通胀目标。 据研究预计，到2026年结束时，英国央行政策利率会从当前的4.0%下调到3.5%，这意味着，除了今年 12月可能会降息一次，明年还会有一次下调——可能会在4月。 消费能不能恢复活力？ 由于关税和国内税率上调 ...

当前美国上市公司数量仅为三十年前的一半，此次改革剑指监管过度问题，为各行业、各发展阶段的企业打开公开市场融资通道。 美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）于当地时间12月2日在纽约证券交易所活动的预备讲话中宣布，机构将于2026年1月正式推出 系列上市激励提案，通过精简披露要求、差异化合规标准、优化市场环境等多重举措，降低小型企业上市门槛，旨在提振IPO市场活跃度、扩充上市公司队 伍。 ...

作为深圳特区"长子"的罗湖区 近日 全球招商大会现场 深圳"狂揽"超7700亿元、 签约项目超340个 瞬间成为国内乃至国际的焦点 此次全球招商大会上 也取得了亮眼的成绩 在深圳全球招商大会上，罗湖区一口气签下38个项目，"吸金"593亿意向投资！ 值得一提的是，这593亿里，超过一半都流向了人工智能、低空经济、生命健康这些最前沿的赛道。 它还发布了"战新跃升"计划，用最高5000万的真金白银扶持企业成长。 那个你印象中 有着东门老街、水贝珠宝的罗湖 今天 它正在刷新所有人的认知 深圳"老炮儿"罗湖 你还有多少惊喜 是我们不知道的？ 签单签到手软 罗湖的"三高"体质藏不住了 翻开罗湖的招商成绩单 三个"高"字格外亮眼 含金量高 近一半投资来自世界500强、中国500强和上市公司，包括5家世界500强和3家独角兽。这些"聪明钱"的 选择，本身就是对城区价值最硬的投票。 含新量高 战略性新兴产业和未来产业占比超过50%。曾经以"金"闻名的罗湖，如今正在批量吸引"芯""智""空"企 业，人工智能、低空经济、生命健康等赛道集聚效应显著。 低空经济龙头中科星图把湾区总部落在这里，中国500强先导科技在此建设光电研发中心 ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth projected at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, reflecting a slowdown from 2024's 3.3%[29] - The IMF has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% due to increased tariff disturbances and uncertainties[16] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. remains high at approximately 19%, contributing to ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty[20] Domestic Economic Performance - China's GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with Q1 growth at 5.4%, driven by policy implementation and increased local government bond issuance[36] - In Q3 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, continuing the trend from Q2's 5.2% growth, influenced by reduced fixed asset investment and external tariff pressures[36] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 56.6% in Q3, indicating a strong domestic demand despite external challenges[41] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.7% in 2026, with significant variations across countries[23] - The U.S. CPI is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2026, remaining above the target level, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[26] - Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have slowed their rate-cutting pace due to resilient inflation and economic activity, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2026[25] Risks and Uncertainties - Key risks include potential overheating of risk asset prices, increased public finance pressures, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on economic stability[33] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies poses a significant risk to global economic recovery, with potential for further adjustments in trade routes and economic efficiency[20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the employment outlook report indicates that Singapore employers maintain a cautious hiring expectation for Q4 2025, with a Net Employment Outlook of 20%, reflecting a 17% decrease from the previous quarter and a 31% decrease year-on-year [1] - Among the 524 surveyed employers, 37% expect to increase headcount, 17% anticipate reductions, and 45% plan to maintain current staffing levels, with 1% uncertain [1] Group 2 - The transportation, logistics, and automotive sectors show the strongest hiring demand with a Net Employment Outlook of 48%, while the financial and real estate sectors exhibit the weakest hiring sentiment at only 10% [2] - Economic uncertainty has led to a more conservative expansion attitude among employers in the financial sector, reflecting a broader trend of cautious hiring across various industries [2] Group 3 - The primary driver for hiring growth in Q4 is attributed to business expansion, with 43% of employers citing growth and scale as the main reason for creating new positions [3] - Economic challenges are the leading reason for layoffs, with 41% of employers planning to reduce headcount due to economic uncertainty, followed by 31% citing restructuring or downsizing [3] Group 4 - Employers in Singapore face challenges in talent acquisition, with 50% indicating that attracting qualified candidates is their biggest hurdle, and 34% struggling to fill complex technical roles [4] - To retain talent, work-life balance is viewed as the most effective strategy by 56% of employers, followed by employee recognition at 40% and flexible work arrangements at 35% [4] - Singapore's Net Employment Outlook is slightly below the global average of 23%, with the UAE and India showing the strongest hiring intentions at 45% and 40%, respectively [4]

Market Overview - The market opened higher and saw the ChiNext Index rise over 3% during the day, closing with a gain of 2.6% [1] - The total trading volume exceeded 2 trillion, with over 3,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets showing gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39% [1] Economic and Sector Insights - The market is refocusing on fundamental logic as liquidity conditions since June have stabilized, with optimistic growth expectations for AI and technology sectors [1] - Hardware manufacturing in the tech sector is experiencing significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatches, indicating strong mid-term profitability [1] - Traditional economic sectors, particularly consumption and cyclical themes, are still in a recovery phase, making it difficult for them to enter a bull market in the short term [1] International Market Dynamics - Overseas tech stocks show mixed expectations, with Nvidia providing strong earnings guidance while Google's upgraded model raises questions about the profitability of AI applications [1] - The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship and potential unexpected interest rate cuts in 2026 could continue to support the tech sector [1] Bond Market Analysis - The 30-year bond futures contract fell by 0.29%, while the 10-year contract rose by 0.02% [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 122.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a stable interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The overall funding environment remains loose, but expectations for interest rate cuts are low, leading to a slight upward trend in bond yields [2] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices in London showed weak fluctuations, with the gold-silver ratio around 72.2 [3] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December [3] - There are concerns about technical pullback risks in silver, platinum, and palladium due to crowded long positions, which may lead to larger price adjustments compared to gold [3]