1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong [1] - Silver: Wide - range adjustment [1] - Copper: Rebound [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Lithium carbonate: Weak [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term adjustments do not change the strong logic of gold, and it has long - term strategic allocation value; silver is in a wide - range adjustment and should be treated with an interval trading approach; copper is in a rebound, and the long - term outlook is optimistic; zinc rebounds under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weak in the long - term; lead rebounds slightly; tin rises and then falls; aluminum rebounds slightly; nickel continues to rebound; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are in a weak state [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold rose 0.97% to 789.22, COMEX gold fell 0.49% to 3341; SHFE silver fell 0.87% to 8161, COMEX silver rose 0.29% to 33. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio rose 1.87% to 96.71, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.78% to 101.70 [2] - **Basic Logic**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points; US economic data declined, such as a 11.4% drop in new housing starts in March and a - 26.4 reading in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April. Trump criticized Powell and called for a rate cut. Conflicts in tariff games are the main trend, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. Short - term liquidity shocks persist, and long - term international conflicts support the gold price [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, short - term trading is active, and the long - term logic remains unchanged. Control positions when chasing short - term long positions and maintain a long - term long - allocation mindset. For silver, it is in an oscillating range of [8000, 8500], so use an oscillating trading approach [4] Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper fell 0.49% to 9158 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.3% to 76070 yuan/ton. Copper inventories decreased, and the spot price increased slightly [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, but it has not yet affected the electrolytic copper end. In March, domestic electrolytic copper production increased. Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade disputes, terminal consumption was suppressed, but downstream enterprises actively bought on dips, leading to a decrease in domestic inventories [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. It is recommended to go long on copper with a light position near the lower moving average and set a stop - loss. In the long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and the outlook for copper is still positive. Short - term SHFE copper focuses on the range [75000, 77000], and LME copper focuses on [8800, 9500] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Information**: LME zinc fell 0.04% to 2581 US dollars/ton, and SHFE zinc rose 0.23% to 22015 yuan/ton. Zinc inventories decreased, and the spot price decreased slightly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates are positive. Many zinc smelters increased production in April - May. After the zinc price dropped, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory on dips, but the export demand is expected to weaken due to anti - dumping tariffs from Brazil and Vietnam [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. Zinc has rebounded from an oversold condition, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, supply exceeds demand, so look for opportunities to go short on rallies. SHFE zinc focuses on the range [21500, 22500], and LME zinc focuses on [2550, 2750] US dollars/ton [8] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, while alumina was under pressure. The LME aluminum price fell 0.15% to 2385 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum price rose 0.51% to 19645 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased [9] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, US tariffs have affected the market, but domestic inventories have decreased, and the downstream processing industry's overall operating rate has increased. For alumina, some plants have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the market is still in an oversupply situation, and inventories have risen [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum in the short - term, focusing on the depletion of aluminum ingots. The main operating range is [19200 - 20200]. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak [10] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then fell. The LME nickel price rose 0.96% to 15745 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE nickel price rose 1.65% to 126190 yuan/ton. Nickel inventories increased slightly, and stainless steel inventories increased [11] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas tariff policies have affected the market. In the nickel industry, there are policy disputes in Indonesia, and the production and release of nickel ore are under - expected. Some smelters' raw material inventories are low, and domestic refined nickel inventories have decreased slightly. In the stainless steel industry, inventory depletion has encountered resistance, and exports are blocked, with an oversupply situation persisting [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, focusing on downstream consumption in the peak season. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 129000] [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2505 opened slightly lower and was weak throughout the day. The prices of lithium - related products were mostly stable, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract has accelerated its decline. During the peak season, the total lithium carbonate inventory has increased for 9 consecutive weeks, indicating that supply growth exceeds demand growth. Sino - US trade frictions and market recession expectations may drag down overseas demand. The ore price still has room to fall, and it is difficult for the lithium carbonate price to get support in the short - term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The price range is [68000, 72000] [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 156.16 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 95.21% [1][2] - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to over 60%, specifically to 62.94%, which is a 15.28 percentage point increase year-on-year, enhancing the investment appeal [3][8] - The company benefits from rising prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, leading to a notable increase in gross profit margin to 27.0%, up 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.0%, with sales prices for electrolytic aluminum and alumina averaging 17,549 RMB/ton and 3,420 RMB/ton, respectively, marking increases of 6.6% and 33.6% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume for electrolytic aluminum and alumina reached 5.837 million tons and 10.921 million tons, with year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 5.3% respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, with a dividend ratio raised to 62.94%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3][8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 16.13 billion RMB, 17.75 billion RMB, and 21.29 billion RMB, representing decreases of 19.44% and 19.06% in the first two years [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.37 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.5 for 2025 [5][9]

关注微信公众号 | 产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月16日 | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解辑 125475 | 124600 | 875 | 0.70% | 元/吨 | | 1#송川镇 126850 | 126050 | 800 | 0.63% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 2900 | 3100 | -200 | -6.45% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇 124175 | 123150 | 1025 | 0.83% | 元/H | | 1#进口镍升贴水 225 | 200 | ર્ટ | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -211 | -202 | -8 | 4.19% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 -2871 | -2840 | -31 | 1.09% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 8.07 | 8.06 | 0.0 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 | LME 铜下跌 0.91%至 9137 美元/吨；SHFE 铜下跌 0.17%至 7583 元/吨；现货进口 维系亏损。宏观方面，海外方面，纽约制造业整体商业状况指数上升 11.9 点至-8.1， | | | | 好于预期值-13.5，尽管有所缓和，但也制造业活动连续第二个月萎缩，未来订单信心 指数暴跌至 2001 年以来最低水平，显示对未来经济衰退的担忧。美国财长贝森特逐渐 | | | | 主导关税政策，关税或更加聚焦。另据媒体报道，欧盟预计美国针对欧盟的大部分关税 | | | | 将维持现状，双方目前谈判几乎没有取得进展。国内方面，政府提到将以更大力度促进 | | 铜 | | 消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环，进一步释放我国超大规模市场的活力潜力。库存方 | | | | 面来看，LME 库存增加 4650 吨至 212475 吨；Comex 库存增加 586 吨至 109242 吨； | | | | SHFE 铜仓单增加 2840 吨至 9220 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has a significant impact on the non - ferrous metals market, with macro factors bringing continuous influence. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and tariff impacts [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE copper 05 contract rose 0.16% to 75,970 yuan/ton. Tariff issues initially led to a sharp decline in copper prices and then a rebound. Fundamentally, downstream restocking was active when prices fell, but copper concentrate supply was still tight. Satellite data showed a significant decline in global copper smelting activities in March. The previous tight supply expectation in China may change. In the long - term, tariff impacts may lower market demand and the copper price center may shift down. Next week, SHFE copper will maintain a wide - range and relatively strong oscillation, and interval trading is recommended [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and trading was weak. Sellers tried to maintain prices, while downstream buyers pressed prices and made few purchases [8] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,840 tons to 92,209 tons, and LME copper inventories increased by 4,650 tons to 212,475 tons [18] Aluminum - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum 06 contract fell 0.61% to 19,595 yuan/ton. Ore supply improved and prices declined. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 4.9 million tons to 86.15 million tons, and inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 3.443 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 35,000 tons to 4.4079 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates decreased, and inventory declined on Monday. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3] - In the spot market, aluminum prices fell, trading was not good, sellers tried to maintain prices, and downstream demand slightly recovered. In the afternoon, the market turned to a wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was limited [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,524 tons to 101,189 tons, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 825 tons to 439,325 tons [18] Nickel - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel 05 contract rose 1.05% to 124,240 yuan/ton. The US consumer confidence index declined, and tariff policies damaged the global trade environment. Nickel ore costs increased, and supply was affected by rainfall in the Philippines. In March, national refined nickel production increased by 39.12% year - on - year, with an oversupply situation. Nickel iron prices corrected, and the oversupply pattern expanded. In April, 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The market was in the off - season. Sulfuric acid nickel costs increased, but demand was weak. As nickel has fallen close to the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] - In the spot market, nickel prices rose. The ccmn Yangtze River Composite 1 nickel price was 123,400 - 127,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 125,450 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan from the previous day [15] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 237 tons to 25,884 tons, and LME nickel inventories decreased by 1,554 tons to 202,818 tons [18] Tin - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE tin 05 contract fell 0.31% to 258,990 yuan/ton. The upcoming resumption of production in Congo put pressure on prices. In March, domestic refined tin production increased by 7.3% month - on - month. Tin concentrate imports from January to February decreased by 13% year - on - year. Indonesian refined tin exports increased in February. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover. Inventories were at a medium level. It is expected that price fluctuations will increase, and interval operation is recommended, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract being 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7] - In the spot market, tin prices fell, and trading was limited as merchants mainly waited and saw [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 146 tons to 9,670 tons, and LME tin inventories decreased by 245 tons to 2,845 tons [18] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead) Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices fell. Zinc price declines stimulated restocking, and spot premiums strengthened, but trading sentiment was weak, and restocking volumes were limited [12] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts increased by 775 tons to 7,658 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased by 5,275 tons to 112,025 tons [18] Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, with overall flat consumption [13][14] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 58,378 tons, and LME lead inventories increased by 8,225 tons to 265,550 tons [18] Alumina - On April 15, alumina prices in different regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market was lightly traded, sellers maintained prices, and downstream buyers mainly pressed prices for rigid - need purchases [10][11]

有色金属日报 2025-4-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数跌幅收窄，市场对美元信心有所修复，铜价震荡上涨，昨日伦铜收涨 0.4%至 9220 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 76190 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 950 至 207825 吨，注销仓单比例抬 升至 44.1%，Cash/3M 由升水转为贴水 30 美元/吨。国内方面，周末社会库存减 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 强势 | 关税乱入扰乱全球秩序，大国博弈剧烈，美联储暗示出手，各国流动性放松， 黄金强势。长期看，国际秩序破坏，长期不确定困扰持续，各主体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，未来刺激预期较大，品种 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 属性方面，白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近， | | | | 操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 关税冲击告一段落，市场情绪逐渐修复，海内外降息概率回升，短期铜反弹力度已 经开始减弱，铜需要区间震荡来充分完成多空换手，把握逢低试多机会，中长期依 | | | | 旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【75000，77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 国内库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌上行动力趋缓，反弹承压，中长期看，锌供 | | | | 增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22000，23000】 | | 铅 | 反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has increased the probability of a global economic recession, causing significant short - term impacts on commodity prices. However, as the marginal impact of tariffs weakens, metal prices have shown different trends. Different trading strategies are recommended for various metals based on their fundamentals and market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - As of April 14, the Shanghai copper main 05 contract rose 2.06% to 76,310 yuan/ton. The tariff war has a complex impact on copper prices. Although short - term fundamentals are still resilient, the medium - to - long - term impact of tariffs may lower market demand and the price center. It is recommended to conduct range trading as the Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a wide - range, relatively strong oscillation next week [2]. - In the spot market, copper prices rebounded, but downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices, leading to a sluggish trading atmosphere [7]. - Copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,805 tons to 89,369 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons to 207,825 tons [16]. Aluminum - As of April 14, the Shanghai aluminum main 06 contract rose 0.31% to 19,685 yuan/ton. The supply at the ore end is improving, and the alumina operating capacity has decreased. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate has declined, and social inventories of aluminum ingots and rods have decreased. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3]. - In the spot market, there is still a bearish sentiment. Sellers are eager to sell, while buyers are waiting for lower prices, resulting in poor trading [8]. - Aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,531 tons to 102,713 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [16]. Nickel - As of April 14, the Shanghai nickel main 05 contract rose 1.79% to 123,090 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy has damaged the global trade environment, and the cost of nickel ore has increased. Although there is an oversupply in the nickel market, the price is near the cost line. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - In the spot market, as nickel prices rebounded, downstream buyers were reluctant to trade due to high prices [13]. - Nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,183 tons to 25,647 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 120 tons to 204,372 tons [16]. Tin - As of April 14, the Shanghai tin main 05 contract rose 3.02% to 261,850 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which may support demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading with the reference range of 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai tin 05 contract, and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [6]. - In the spot market, the price of tin increased [14]. - Tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 294 tons to 9,524 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 3,090 tons [16]. Zinc - In the spot market, the short - term trading activity has increased. The balance between sellers' price - holding intention and buyers' rigid demand has maintained a good trading interaction [10]. - Zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 74 tons to 6,883 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 117,300 tons [16]. Lead - In the spot market, downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and consumption is generally stable [12]. - Lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,391 tons to 58,523 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 257,325 tons [16].

A股复盘 | 电风扇行情 / 2025.04.14 听说今天又是那种"周末狠狠学习但是周一猛亏"的行情？ 听说今天又是那种"好多概念发酵但是收盘被套"的行情？ 今天a股热点轮动: 果链 AI 眼睛 内外贸一体化 体育 核聚变 电力 锦 CIPS 三胎 东盟铁路, 摩托车, 海南, 汽 车,必选消费,910C,中概回 流, 互金 ..... 但凡抓住一个 你收盘就套佳晨 Datayes 今日A股 我看大家都在为到底豁没豁免中国而吵架，没什么好吵架的， 此前对等关税政策 已经豁免了被单独征收关税的行业，比如汽车、钢铝等，因此结合特朗普的增税 计划，之后很可能会针对半导体、芯片等行业额外加征关税。 当然特朗普也这么预告了，无论是Truth Social，还是对记者，他都是这么表态 的！ 美国商务部长霍华德·鲁特尼克周日在接受ABC《本周》节目采访时表示，智能 手机、计算机及部分其他电子产品将适用单独的关税，这些关税可能会在大约一 个月后实施。 虽然我们一直调侃特朗普像个舔狗一样在等我们的电话，事实上双方的态度都很 强硬，离谈判还有好长一段时间呢！ 做好心理准备！ 今天这个出口数据大超我的预期，一开始海关总署开发布会 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年4月14日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 256200 | 258700 | -2500 | -0.97% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 1700 | 1050 | ୧50 | 61.90% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 256700 | 259200 | -2500 | -0.96% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -110.00 | 50.00 | -160.00 | -320.00% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -14683.03 | -21435.65 | 6752.62 | 31.50% | 元/吨 ...