冷静下来的特朗普，或许已经看到美国又一次输掉关税战的结局，于是主动给中国递上一个台阶。 自从特朗普再度威胁对中国加征高额关税后，中美爆发新一轮关税战的可能性急剧上升。 然而没过几天，特朗普的口风就又变了。 他在自己的社交媒体上发文称，说什么"不用对中国太过担心，事情之后会好起来的"，还把中方的立场解释为"心情有些不好"，甚至强调美国希望"帮助"中 国而非"伤害"中国，最后还郑重其事地署上"唐纳德·特朗普总统"的字样。 这种戏剧性的转变，说白了就是美国在关税战的悬崖边上踩了刹车，因为再往下走，美国自己先扛不住了。 关税政策带来的反噬效应已经在美国国内全面显现，耶鲁预算实验室的测算数据显示，2025年美国家庭将因为这些关税人均增加年支出2100至3800美元，低 收入家庭受影响更为严重，商品价格在短期内上涨了约1.7%–1.8%，平均每户家庭今年损失约2400美元。 更麻烦的是，原产地审核机制收紧让全球供应链变得更加复杂，企业为了规避高关税，不得不增加转运路径、调整工厂布局，还要接受更严格的海关检查， 整体物流成本与合规负担直线上升。 《金融时报》就直言，特朗普的关税政策正在加剧全球经济碎片化，美国自己也在陷入" ...

俄乌冲突已经进入了第四个年头，烽火前站分析认为，冲突都没有按照俄罗斯和乌克兰预料的方向发 展。俄罗斯最初认为很快就可以打服乌克兰，乌克兰也认为俄罗斯很快就会收手，但是如今的俄乌冲突 已经进入了长期化的局面。根据外媒报道，在俄罗斯的持续打击之下，乌克兰已经付出了150万人伤亡 的代价，实际上相关的数据还不包括乌克兰的逃兵。实际上乌克兰基辅当局公布的伤亡数据远远低于 150万的规模，因为许多人员被定义为"失踪"。在基辅的宣传口径之下，俄罗斯已经损失超过100万的兵 力。 英国是美国的铁杆盟友，在美国背后支持乌克兰打击俄罗斯境内目标的时候，英国揭开了美国的老底， 为此也是莫大的讽刺。实际上在乌克兰和俄罗斯死磕的时候，英国的角色也是非常不光彩，英国已经提 供乌克兰大量的精确制导武器，包括提供风暴阴影巡航导弹，从而支持乌克兰对于俄罗斯控制地区进行 打击，显然英国和美国的角色本质上是一致的。 显然俄罗斯对于北约和美国在俄乌冲突期间扮演的角色已经有了明确的定义，为此在美国积极推动俄乌 冲突停火的时候，俄罗斯也是保持了清醒的头脑。从英国媒体公布的信息来看，美国相关人员为乌克兰 提供了打击的方案，并且提供了对应目标的情报，从而 ...

据介绍，在德国期间，代表团将举办"工业4.0与欧盟市场洞察"专题座谈，代表团还将参与"智能制造与 未来产业""驾驭未来——制造业智能化转型"等主题考察，走进奥迪工厂，实地参观钣金冲压车间，在 专业讲解中深入了解奥迪的发展历程与先进制造流程，汲取汽车产业智能化转型经验。同时，聚焦西门 子安贝格工厂，代表团将零距离探访IMPULSE数字化展厅，沉浸式体验西门子最新的数字化企业解决 方案与前沿技术。 从产业构成来看，此次出行的40余家企业覆盖人工智能、集成电路、新型显示、软件与信息服务、航空 航天、低空经济、轨道交通、智能网联汽车、生物医药、先进能源、新型材料、绿色食品精深加工等12 条制造业重点产业链，堪称成都工业的"精锐力量"。在德法期间，代表团将密集举办10场高层次交流活 动，包括1场经济合作洽谈会、2场专题座谈会以及7场企业实地考察，以精准对接和深度互动推动更多 合作项目落地见效。 10月11日，国庆中秋大假刚过，一支由40余家成都工业企业组成的"成都造·全球销"系列活动代表团就 启程前往德国与法国，开展为期多日的欧洲市场拓展活动，重点聚焦成都六大优势产业——电子信息、 装备制造、医药健康、新型材料、绿色食 ...

Group 1 - The traditional manufacturing sector in China is poised to benefit from the current geopolitical climate, as it can leverage its advantages to gain pricing power and move away from intense competition [2] - Recent export controls and licensing systems are aimed at protecting national interests and may help leading companies secure stable overseas market shares and better profitability [2] - The capital expenditure in traditional industries is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, providing a favorable environment for companies to improve their profit margins [2] Group 2 - External shocks leading to asset declines present a buying opportunity in the Chinese market, as the current trade risks are clearer compared to previous disruptions [3] - The demand for quality assets in China is surging, driven by the ongoing transformation of the economy and capital market reforms [3] - The focus remains on sectors that align with industrial development and stability, particularly in emerging technologies and cyclical finance [3] Group 3 - The market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment, but the overall resilience remains strong, with potential for new highs post-adjustment [5] - The current market conditions are more favorable than previous shocks, with investor sentiment and institutional support strengthening [5] - Key sectors to watch include military, semiconductors, and new consumption, which are positioned for marginal improvements [5] Group 4 - The core drivers of the current market rally remain unchanged, with a focus on medium to long-term policy expectations and liquidity trends [6] - Attention should be directed towards sectors with strong performance certainty, such as new productivity themes and large consumption [6] - Investment opportunities are identified in metals, agriculture, and energy sectors [6] Group 5 - The recent volatility in the technology sector is not expected to lead to significant long-term declines, as the market has learned from past experiences [7] - The focus should be on sectors that can benefit from domestic policies and self-sufficiency, including non-ferrous metals, banking, and agriculture [7] - Opportunities may arise from market corrections, particularly in sectors with strong growth potential [7] Group 6 - The mid-term outlook for A-shares remains optimistic despite external uncertainties, with a focus on traditional value sectors such as real estate and consumption [8] - The market is showing signs of a shift towards value-oriented investments, indicating a potential rebalancing of investment styles [8] - The gold market is expected to maintain a positive outlook, with no immediate signs of a peak [8] Group 7 - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of panic, suggesting that adjustments in global risk assets will be manageable [9] - The focus should be on domestic policies and the recovery of internal demand, which are expected to gain more attention in the market [9] - The recovery of manufacturing activities and investment acceleration are seen as key themes for future growth [9] Group 8 - The upcoming APEC summit is anticipated to be a significant event for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape, impacting market sentiment [12] - The market is expected to respond positively to the stabilization of industry chains and economic resilience amid ongoing trade tensions [12] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that align with anti-tariff measures and self-sufficiency, such as agriculture and military [12]

2025年10月12日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：威尔鑫wellxin 金银价格迭创历史新高 如何理解其大周期技术信号 严重超买？ 上周 国际现货金价以3887.25美元开盘，最高上试4058.90美元，最低下探3883.05美元，报收4018.09美元，上涨132.19美元，涨幅3.40%，振幅4.53%，周K线震 荡上行长阳线，续创历史新高。 美元指数以98.03点开盘，最高上试99.56点，最低下探97.93点，报收98.82点，上涨1130点，涨幅1.15%，振幅1.66%，周K线呈震荡上行中长阳线。 wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以8001.44点开盘，最高上试8818.86点，最低下探7901.89点，报收8239.17点，上涨241.53点，涨幅3.02%，振幅5.21%，周K 线中长阳上行，续创历史新高。 现货银价上涨4.86%，振幅8.18%，报收50.27美元，创历史新高。 现货铂金价格下跌1.09%，振幅6.67%，报收1587.30美元； 现货钯金价格上涨11.48%，振幅19.60%，报收1400.25美元； 上周 NYMEX原油价格下跌4.04% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic situation shows a gap between strong expectations and weak reality, with economic pressure increasing marginally in August, featuring "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption," and external tariff pressure rising. The government has introduced policies such as new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan and 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations to address these issues. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has intensified. With the expiration of the tariff delay on November 10 approaching, the market's concern about the risks brought by tariff friction has risen rapidly. Before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, and the market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of the event. In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the impact of Sino - US negotiations on agricultural products [4]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals in the commodity and stock index futures markets [5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with external tariff pressure increasing from the US, Mexico, India, etc. The government has introduced policies to stabilize growth, including new policy - based financial tools and large - scale repurchase operations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the off - peak season situation [2]. - Sino - US tariff friction has escalated. The US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and increasing tariffs on imported products. China has responded with export controls on rare earths. Before the South Korea APEC Summit, the risk impact of tariff escalation on the market should be vigilant [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting economic data release. The market has under - priced the severity of the shutdown. In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends, and gold is expected to strengthen [4]. Strategy - In the commodity and stock index futures markets, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals [5]. To - do List - On October 6, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from November 1, 2025. On September 25, he had announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1 [6]. - The Fed's attitude towards the economy and inflation is complex. Some officials believe that continued easing may be appropriate this year, but inflation has upward risks, and employment has downward risks [6]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month in September, and on October 9, it carried out 1.1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations [6]. - The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement came into effect on October 9, and Israel approved the agreement on October 10 [6]. - The US will impose additional port service fees on Chinese - owned or - operated ships starting from October 14, which seriously violates international trade principles and the Sino - US shipping agreement [6]. Macroeconomic Indicators - **US Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 2.08%, the Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.00, and the service PMI was 54.20. Investment, employment, inflation, consumption, finance, and net exports all had corresponding data changes [8]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In September 2025, the GDP growth rate was 1.30%, the manufacturing PMI was 49.80, and the service PMI was 51.30. There were also changes in investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and finance [9]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In the third quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.2%. Trade, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and other aspects had different trends, such as a 5.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in export volume and a 0.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in fixed - asset investment [10]. Interest Rates - The report provides data on the 10 - year and 2 - year Sino - US Treasury bond spreads [21]. Foreign Exchange - It includes data on the week - on - week change of the US dollar against major currencies and the trend of the US dollar index [24][26].

Group 1 - The construction of key projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" is progressing steadily across various regions, contributing to high-quality development [1] - The second phase of the "Yinhan Jihui" project in Shaanxi has successfully completed the northern tunnel, laying the foundation for full-line water supply by the end of the year, with an annual water transfer capacity of 1.5 billion cubic meters [1] - The project will benefit over 14 million people in cities such as Xi'an, Xianyang, Yangling, and Weinan [1] Group 2 - A series of key transportation infrastructure projects in Guangxi have commenced, including highways and port access channels, aimed at enhancing the comprehensive transportation network [1] - The successful rotation of the GZ-Guangdong Railway Bridge marks a critical construction milestone for the Shenjiang High-Speed Railway, which connects major cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [1] - The Shenjiang High-Speed Railway will enable a half-hour direct connection between the Qianhai Free Trade Zone in Shenzhen and the Nansha Free Trade Zone in Guangzhou [1] Group 3 - The installation of the largest rooftop photovoltaic power generation system at Xiamen Xiang'an International Airport has been completed, with an annual power generation capacity of 13 million kilowatt-hours, reducing carbon emissions by over 10,000 tons [2] - The airport's construction is advancing rapidly, with concrete pavement and lighting installation underway, aiming to meet an annual passenger throughput of 45 million and 380,000 aircraft takeoffs and landings [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant market downturn due to renewed trade conflicts, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.5% [3] - Only three sectors experienced gains, while 21 sectors saw declines, indicating widespread market fear [3] - The semiconductor sector attracted substantial capital inflows, contrasting with the overall outflow from the market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.5% due to trade tensions [3] - The performance of sectors varied, with the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector increasing by 1.7%, while Durable Goods & Apparel dropped by 8.4% [3] Capital Flows - The estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was -$40.6 billion, indicating a significant outflow compared to the previous week [4] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector saw a capital inflow of $83.2 million, while the automotive sector experienced a $25.7 million outflow [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components, with 21 sectors seeing an increase in earnings expectations [5] - The materials sector led the upward revisions with a 1.0% increase, while the energy sector faced a downward adjustment of 0.5% [5]

然而，默克尔和马克龙的提议遭到了波兰和波罗的海三国的强烈反对。波兰的当时领导人坚决不同意，爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛也都站在同一阵线。他 们担心，如果欧盟直接与俄罗斯对话，可能会破坏对俄政策的统一性，导致一些国家单方面做出让步，从而威胁到东欧的安全。最终，这个提议在峰会上未 能通过，欧盟与俄罗斯的对话渠道因此被封锁。默克尔在采访中指出，正是因为这些东欧国家的阻挠，欧盟未能与俄罗斯达成新的妥协，政治对话因此中 断。更糟糕的是，疫情爆发后，面对面的会谈变得更加困难，大家只能通过视频交流，问题也越来越严重。2022年2月24日，俄罗斯最终对乌克兰发动了军 事行动。 近年来，欧洲的经济状况可谓岌岌可危。能源价格暴涨，军费开支像无底洞一样吞噬财政，普通民众的医疗和教育负担也日益加重。就在这样的困境中，德 国前总理默克尔于2025年10月3日接受匈牙利媒体《Partizán》采访时，突然抛出了一个惊人的消息。她直言不讳地透露，早在2021年，她和法国总统马克龙 曾提议，推动欧盟与俄罗斯普京直接对话，旨在避免局势进一步升级，然而这一提议却被波兰及波罗的海三国强烈反对。默克尔的这番话一经曝光，立刻在 欧洲政坛引发轩然大波，许 ...

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） "黑色星期五"昨日突袭。 昨夜纳指暴跌超过 3 个点，大型科技股集体大跌，中概股更是跌得惨不忍睹，盘面给人的感觉像极了四月那个载入史册的一天。 更让人担忧的是，过完周末，下周一港 A 股开市，应该怎么办？ 01 黑色星期五 特朗普又搞事情了。 此外，由于周四中国宣布实施新的出口管制，要求许多含有稀土元素的产品以及部分锂离子电池的对外销售须经政府批准。而美股稀土板块继 续迎来资金炒作， MP Materials 大涨超 8.37% ， USA Rare Earth 涨超 4% ，盘后继续大涨超 10% 。 昨天刚好是周五，所以港股、 A 股要等到下周一才有所反应，但从指数期货表现来看，除非周末出现 180 度的转折，否则一场大抛售恐怕已 经提前预定。 周五特朗普表示，他将于 11 月 1 日对中国商品加征额外 100% 的关税 ，表示此举是回应周四中国收紧稀土出口规定的举措。 昨日深夜，美股三大指数全线跳水， 截至收盘，纳指暴跌超 3% ，创 4 月以来最大单日跌幅 ；美股大型科技股集体重挫，盘后还继续下跌。 截至收盘，台积电 A ...