1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,400 - 72,280 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,630 tons, 53% higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the output in the next month will increase to 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,878 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 69,611 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.47%, with a production profit of 2,489 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 77,138 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.59%, with a production loss of 6,968 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Market Indicators**: On July 29, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average level. The MA20 of the market trend is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of changes, such as a 1.61% increase in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, a 1.73% increase in the price of (electric - industrial) lithium carbonate, and a 0.44% increase in the price of micronized lithium hydroxide [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.80%, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. On the demand side, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09%, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain trend of change over time, and the production of lithium ore in China's sample spodumene mines and the total output of domestic lepidolite also showed different trends in different years [24]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in short supply and some months in surplus [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly output and monthly capacity of lithium carbonate also changed over time [30]. - **Import and Recycling**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries also showed different trends [30][31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, the monthly operating rate from different sources (causticization and smelting), and the production volume showed different trends [37]. - **Export Volume**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide in China from 2019 to 2025 showed different trends [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials, etc.) showed different trends over time [43][46]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained and micronized) and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also showed different trends [46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelters and downstream) also showed different trends [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Output**: The price of batteries, the monthly output of battery cells, the monthly power battery loading volume, and the monthly power battery cell shipment volume showed different trends [55]. - **Battery Export and Inventory**: The export volume of lithium batteries and the inventory of battery cells also showed different trends [55][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursors, the cost - profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors, and the processing fee showed different trends [61]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors and the capacity utilization rate also showed different trends [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, and the processing fee showed different trends [67][69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production volume, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [67][69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, and the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [71]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly output, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [74][76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles in the Passenger Car Association and the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index also showed different trends [83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be stable, with South American imports likely to supplement supply, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good, with the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers increasing in July. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly View Supply - side - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 235 tons to 18,548 tons, and the output in June increased by 10.9% to 80,962 tons. Recently, many lithium mine projects have restarted production, but the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices of re - review of mining rights transfer, affecting supply. In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited. In June 2025, the import volume of lithium ore in China was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [4] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [4] Demand - side - The overall production schedule in July increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 10%. In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4%. The total export was 24.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. The sales volume was 131.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. The new car replacement policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a cumulative state, with the factory inventory decreasing by 850 tons, the market inventory decreasing by 524 tons, and the futures inventory increasing by 1,757 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salts will supplement the supply. The overall supply is stable, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and import volume of related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and battery materials, and the price of battery materials. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends over different time periods are shown [8][10][13][15][17][23][25][27][31][33][35][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 7.21% to 76,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 700 yuan/ton to 60,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 665 tons to 10,754 tons [3]. - On July 23, 2025, Argentina's economy minister announced that the RIGI evaluation committee rejected Ganfeng's application for the Mariana salt lake project. In June 2025, the Port of Port Hedland in Australia shipped 92,740 tons of spodumene concentrate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 17.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 52.54%. It also shipped 17,200 tons to Indonesia and 14,500 tons to South Korea [3]. - In terms of supply, the production in July is expected to increase 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons [3]. - The price increased with increasing positions yesterday, and the news continued to ferment. Fundamentally, the supply and demand in July are in a tight balance, and the lithium ore price remains relatively strong, providing marginal support for the lithium price. However, the short - term core contradiction still focuses on the low warehouse receipt inventory and concerns about mine exploitation. Currently, the continuous small - scale return of warehouse receipt inventory may ease the situation, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was N/A, and the previous day was 69,380 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract was N/A, and the previous day was 69,320 yuan/ton. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 764 dollars/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,080 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, all increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium increased by 500 yuan/ton to 51,500 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - Spreads: Charts present the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][24]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][36][37]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]

1. Overall Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [3] - Author: Hu Yuxiu from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is relatively strong, while the demand is relatively weak, resulting in a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch [8][11]. - The cost of lithium carbonate production varies by source, with the cost of the salt lake end being significantly lower than that of the ore end, and the profit - making situation is also different [8]. - The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,360 - 72,200 yuan/ton [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,046 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,323 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 66,602 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.89%, with a production profit of 473 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 71,484 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.31%, with a production loss of 6,008 yuan/ton; the cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On July 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 142,620 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.30%, higher than the historical average. The inventory situation of different sectors varied [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, and it is predicted that the production in the next month will be 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 22,500 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.22%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. 4.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of different contracts showed an upward trend, with an increase range of 1.81% - 2.45% [13]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts showed different degrees of change, with some showing an increase and some a decrease [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and other upstream products generally showed an upward trend, such as the price of lithium spodumene concentrate increasing by 2.67% and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.03% [13]. - **Positive Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive materials and lithium batteries remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [13]. 4.3 Supply - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the production and import volume of lithium ore also changed. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore and the inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore also had corresponding trends [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export volume of lithium carbonate, as well as the opening rate, showed different trends. The cost and profit of lithium carbonate production also varied by source [26][30]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The production, import, export, and demand of lithium hydroxide, as well as the capacity utilization rate and opening rate, showed different trends. The cost and profit of lithium hydroxide production also varied by source [33][35]. 4.4 Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different trends, which were affected by factors such as raw material prices and production costs [38][40][43]. 4.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including weekly and monthly inventory, showed different trends, and the inventory situation of different sectors also varied [45]. 4.6 Demand - **Lithium Battery**: The production, sales, export, and price of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends [49]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, production, and demand of the ternary precursor showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also had corresponding changes [55][58]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, and demand of the ternary material showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also had corresponding changes [61]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron**: The price, cost, profit, production, and demand of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also had corresponding changes [65]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [73].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The "Anti-Involution 1.0 + Lithium Mine 2.0" policy has shifted the upward trend of lithium prices from macro-driven to industry policy-driven. Attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses in August. With high position-to-warrant ratios in the 08 and 09 contracts, lithium prices are expected to remain strong [4]. - For unilateral trading, hold positions cautiously, with the futures main contract price expected to range between 55,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [5]. - For inter - delivery spread trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended as there are expectations of mine shutdowns in the near - term [6]. - For hedging, a sell - hedging strategy is suggested, and the sell - hedging ratio should be increased to 80% [7]. Summary by Section 1. Price Trends - The main contracts of lithium carbonate accelerated their upward movement. The 2509 contract closed at 69,960 yuan/ton, up 5,680 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2511 contract closed at 68,620 yuan/ton, up 4,700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 2,900 yuan/ton to 66,650 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2509 contract) weakened by 2,780 yuan/ton to - 3,310 yuan/ton. The Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was +90 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 1,340 yuan/ton, up 980 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. 2. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Supply - In Jiangxi, the National Audit Office pointed out that 8 lithium - related mineral rights had issues of evading superior department approval and handling transfer, change, or renewal registration procedures without proper authorization. In Qinghai, Golmud Zangge Potash Co., Ltd. was required to stop illegal lithium resource development and rectify. Against this background, lithium carbonate prices rose, driving up lithium ore prices. Lithium concentrate rose to $711/ton, and 1.5 - 2.0% lithium mica rose to 945 yuan/ton. In the short term, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching 19,115 tons this week, up 302 tons or 1.61% week - on - week [2]. Demand - The inventory accumulation speed of downstream cathode materials slowed down. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate was 95,000 tons, up 1.0% week - on - week, and the inventory of ternary materials was 16,000 tons, up 1.6% week - on - week. Affected by the new energy rush - to - install, the grid - connection peak of new energy storage projects in the first half of the year was advanced to before May 31, and the grid - connection enthusiasm on June 30 declined for the first time. In June 2025, the newly installed capacity of domestic new energy storage projects was 2.33GW/5.63GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 65%/66% and a month - on - month decrease of 71%/72% [3]. Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector. The lithium carbonate inventory was 143,000 tons, up 1,827 tons from last week. The number of futures warrants decreased by 1,364 tons to 10,239 tons [3]. 3. Market Data - The report provides various price data of the lithium industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, along with their price changes [13]. - Multiple charts show historical data on lithium ore prices, production, imports, lithium salt prices, production, inventory, and downstream product production and consumption [9][15][21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate futures market is greatly affected by news and warehouse receipt games. It is necessary to track whether lithium ore approval issues are universal and observe the production scheduling of Australian mines. If there is no impact on the mine - end operation later, short - selling hedging can be carried out in the far - month contracts after choosing the right opportunity. Meanwhile, short - term unilateral trading should be mainly in a wait - and - see state [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On July 17, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 was 66,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 67,960 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 826,939 lots, and the open interest was 363,676 lots, an increase of 23,058 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 637,419 lots, an increase of 17,801 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of contracts increased by 469,317 lots from the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 1.63. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 10,239 lots, a decrease of 416 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 17, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,900 - 66,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,850 - 63,850 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot inventory was 142,600 tons, including 58,000 tons in smelters, 41,300 tons in downstream enterprises, and 43,300 tons in other sectors. The weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,600 tons, mainly due to a large increase in other sectors. The weekly output also slightly increased by 302 tons to 19,100 tons, with a relatively large increase in the output produced from spodumene [1]. Strategy - Recently, the prices of lithium salts and lithium ores have both risen. The latest transaction price of lithium concentrate is 750 US dollars/ton, the average price of lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the futures market today is mainly due to a notice from a subsidiary of a salt - lake enterprise to stop lithium resource development activities. The company plans to produce and sell 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with an expected production of 5,350 tons and sales of 4,470 tons in the first half of the year [2]. - The impact of a single enterprise is relatively limited. Combined with previous lithium ore problems in Jiangxi, it is necessary to track whether lithium ore approval issues are universal and observe whether it will lead to the suspension of mining operations of other enterprises or an increase in production costs. In addition, attention should be paid to the production scheduling announcements of Australian mines. Short - term futures prices are greatly affected by news and warehouse receipt games, so risk management should be done well. If there is no impact on the mine - end operation later, short - selling hedging can be carried out in the far - month contracts after choosing the right opportunity [2]. Trading Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Mainly wait and see in the short term [4]. - Inter - delivery spread trading: No recommendation [4]. - Cross - variety trading: No recommendation [4]. - Spot - futures trading: No recommendation [4]. - Options trading: No recommendation [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price loosening - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound, a "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase" chain is formed, but it will return to the oversupply fundamentals under weak demand [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will oscillate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will oscillate downward in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; look for opportunities to short LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.5% and a historical percentile of 28.1% over three years [2]. - **Contract Price and Volume Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan (2.32%) from the previous day and 3,780 yuan (5.89%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 826,939 lots, up 348,825 lots (72.96%) from the previous day and 428,917 lots (107.76%) from the previous week. The open interest is 363,676 lots, up 23,058 lots (6.77%) from the previous day and 39,993 lots (12.36%) from the previous week [10]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread is 880 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan (15.79%) from the previous day and 280 yuan (46.67%) from the previous week; the LC09 - 11 month - spread is 780 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (34%) from the previous day and 520 yuan (200%) from the previous week; the LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (33%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [13]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,465 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.03%) from the previous day and 60 yuan (4.27%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 702.5 US dollars/ton, up 7.5 US dollars (1.08%) from the previous day and 32.5 US dollars (4.85%) from the previous week [18]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,300 yuan (2.10%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,300 yuan (2.04%) from the previous week [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,300 yuan (120.37%) from the previous week [23]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,345 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 27,660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [25]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Lithium Carbonate Basis**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract range from - 400 to 500 yuan/ton, with most remaining unchanged [29]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 10,239 lots, a decrease of 416 lots from the previous day. Some warehouses such as Wugang Wuxi, Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Fengxin), and Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Yifeng) have seen a decrease in warehouse receipts [34]. Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, while the cost of purchased lithium mica remained flat. The production profit from spodumene was positive, while that from lithium mica was negative. The cost of the salt lake end was lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On July 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The inventory situation was neutral overall [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production in the next month will be 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 22,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.22%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The supply surplus situation has intensified, and the lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,900 - 67,420 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with increases and decreases. The basis also showed different degrees of change, mostly narrowing [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium mica concentrate, and other upstream products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.15%, while the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of positive electrode materials and lithium batteries also showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of some ternary precursors decreased, while the price of some lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. The cost and profit of lithium ore production also changed. For example, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 0.09%, and the production profit increased significantly [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% compared with the previous month [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was 24,450 tons, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous month [17]. 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. The price and cost of lithium batteries also changed. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 1.93% [17]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary precursors showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of ternary precursors increased in some series [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the price of some ternary materials decreased slightly [66]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: The production, demand, and price of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphorus iron increased by 2.09% [71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The sales penetration rate and inventory index also changed. For example, the production of new energy vehicles decreased slightly, and the sales penetration rate decreased by 5.96% [79][80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rebound of lithium carbonate futures has deviated significantly from the fundamentals. Although the demand for new energy vehicles remains resilient, factors such as the widening of the spot discount, the continuous increase in inventory, and the narrowing profit margins of downstream cell enterprises all suppress high prices. Short - term capital push may continue under the influence of market news, but as new production capacities such as the Mami Cuo Salt Lake are gradually put into operation, and the resistance of cathode material manufacturers to high prices increases, it is expected that the futures price will return to the fundamental logic within the next 1 - 2 weeks, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.42% from the previous trading day. However, the basis weakened significantly, expanding from - 580 yuan/ton on July 11 to - 2,680 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient follow - up power in the spot market. The trading volume of the main contract soared 151.87% to 1.015 million lots, reaching a recent single - day high, and the open interest increased 10.31% to 356,000 lots [1] - **Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Changes**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity slightly increased to 62%, and the medium - term supply was expected to be loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton respectively, and there was no obvious pressure on the cost side. In early July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 21% year - on - year but decreased 11% month - on - month, with short - term demand growth slowing down. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials rose moderately, while most cell prices remained stable. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials and mainly made rigid purchases. The social inventory of lithium carbonate climbed for four consecutive weeks to 141,000 physical tons, reaching a new high this year, and the warehouse receipts also accumulated, indicating insufficient actual digestion capacity in the spot market [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose from 64,280 yuan/ton on July 11 to 66,480 yuan/ton on July 14, an increase of 3.42%. The basis weakened from - 580 yuan/ton to - 2,680 yuan/ton, a change rate of - 362.07%. The open interest of the main contract increased 10.31%, and the trading volume increased 151.87%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium concentrates and some related products also had corresponding changes [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. The abnormal fluctuations in the futures market were mainly driven by short - term capital flows, not directly related to the industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the general acceptance range of downstream enterprises, and only some enterprises with rigid procurement needs maintained basic transactions. Although some lithium salt producers have tried to adjust prices, the overall quotation strategy remains cautious [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale volume was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 0% [7] - **Industry News**: Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment in a project that received a construction permit, which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes. Zhongkuang Resources plans to carry out a technical upgrade project for its lithium salt production line. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project has a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan and is expected to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]