Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From May 19th to May 23rd, there were minor supply disruptions, and lithium carbonate prices rose slightly before falling back. As of May 23rd, the closing price of the main contract was 60,960 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 63,050 yuan/ton. Besides the lower cost, there were no more pessimistic changes in the fundamentals. The further decline in the price of spodumene ore has lowered the cost support for lithium prices. The spot price has hit a new low since the futures were listed, and market sentiment remains pessimistic, but it is expected to stop falling as the raw material prices stabilize. Domestic social inventory has decreased slightly, and weekly production has declined. The continuous decline in prices increases the possibility of upstream enterprises reducing or suspending production, which needs continuous attention in the near future [2][10]. - The previous reciprocal tariffs have further restricted the future demand for lithium carbonate products. When facing the weakening peak - season effect of new - energy vehicles, the slowdown in the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate orders, and the decline in the production of ternary materials in China, the impact of reciprocal tariffs on lithium carbonate products is not obvious. The demand for lithium carbonate from the product end is more reflected in the growth of energy - storage demand and the demand brought about by breakthroughs in all - solid - state technology. Short - term factors affecting lithium carbonate prices still focus on the supply - and - demand changes in its own fundamentals. The possibility of further decline at the current price level is narrowing, and it should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [2][10]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review - Supply had sporadic disruptions, and lithium carbonate prices rose slightly before falling back. From May 19th to May 23rd, the upstream had minor disturbances with a small volume involved. As of May 23rd, the main contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 63,050 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and weekly production declined [2][8][10]. II. Hot - Spot Interpretation - **April Import and Export Data (Spodumene, Lithium Iron Phosphate)**: In April, domestic spodumene imports totaled 623,000 physical tons, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, equivalent to 54,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe were the main import sources. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month; from Zimbabwe was 106,000 tons, an 82% increase; from Nigeria was 89,000 tons, a 4% increase; and from South Africa was 40,400 tons, a significant 22% decrease. In April, the amount of spodumene concentrate was 520,000 tons, accounting for 83% of the total ore, mostly from Australia, Zimbabwe, etc. In April 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate export volume was 1,151.7 tons, a 16% decrease from March and a 1724% increase compared to the previous year. In terms of price, the average export price of lithium iron phosphate in March 2025 was 6,206.9 US dollars/ton, a 5.4% increase from the average price in March. The top - exporting province of lithium iron phosphate in April 2025 was Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region with 968.5 tons, all exported to Vietnam; Hubei Province ranked second with 59.454 tons, and Anhui Province ranked third with 30 tons. The top - importing country of Chinese lithium iron phosphate in April 2025 was Vietnam, accounting for 84% of the export volume; South Korea ranked second with 7%, and Chinese Taipei ranked third with 5.5%. In April, China's lithium iron phosphate import volume was 8.6 tons, a 58% decrease from the previous month, mainly imported from Indonesia at an average import price of 5,345.6 US dollars/ton [17][18]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the price of ternary materials continued to decline. In terms of raw material costs, the prices of nickel sulfate and manganese sulfate fluctuated little, the price of cobalt sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of lithium salt continued to decline significantly. In terms of demand, the large - power market has recovered to some extent, with some vehicle models having good sales performance, and some models stocking up in advance due to upcoming launches, which provided some support for the demand for ternary materials, but the overall quantity was limited. The consumer and small - power markets have received more orders recently, especially the overseas market, but the overall increase was not obvious due to the small market volume. On the supply side, the current market supply mainly depends on previously signed long - term contracts. Some enterprises have raised relevant discount coefficients and adopted a settlement method of negotiating discounts for raw materials such as nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and lithium carbonate separately. Recently, the market trading sentiment has been weak, mainly for just - in - time inventory. However, the end - of - month inventory peak is coming next week, and it is expected that market activity will increase recently. In terms of price trends, it is expected that the price of nickel sulfate will remain firm, but there is still room for the price of lithium salt to decline. Affected by raw - material price fluctuations, the price of ternary materials may decline further [20]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the price of lithium ore continued to decline compared to last week. On the supply side, although overseas mines have a certain willingness to support prices, due to their shipping pressure, the quotes have been lowered. On the demand side, since the current lithium - salt price is at a low level, the buyers' psychological price is constantly decreasing, and they are not willing to accept lithium - ore prices above 650 US dollars CIF. When the current lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are falling, the demand continues to push down the price for negotiation, and the trading willingness is average. According to the latest lithium - ore import customs data, in April, domestic spodumene imports exceeded 600,000 tons, a significant increase from the previous month, equivalent to more than 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. Coupled with the high port inventory in recent months, traders and mines face certain shipping pressure, and the buyers' bargaining power has increased. When the lithium carbonate price remains low, the lithium - ore price is expected to weaken [22]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the power - cell market continued to operate in a stable and adjusted manner. In terms of price, the quoted price range of mainstream lithium - iron - phosphate power cells fluctuated narrowly, and market transactions were mostly concentrated in the long - term contracts of leading cell manufacturers. The price competition among terminal vehicle enterprises continued in mid - May, especially for pure - electric platforms of Class A and below, with a deep exploration around the vehicle selling price, which put forward higher requirements for the upstream BOM cost. In this context, power - cell manufacturers are gradually optimizing their product strategies. While maintaining the stable supply of basic large - capacity lithium - iron products, they are accelerating the launch of differentiated solutions for niche markets, such as low - cost and high - integration modules and a new generation of lithium - iron cells compatible with the CTP structure. Some ternary - cell manufacturers are also improving product cost - effectiveness through high - voltage iron doping and fast - charging system technology and promoting the matching of customized cells represented by the 9 - series in the core - customer testing stage [25]. - **SMM May 22nd News**: This week, the downward trend of lithium iron phosphate prices has slowed down, with an overall decrease of about 365 yuan/ton, mainly because the lithium carbonate price has continued to decline this week, with a total decrease of about 1,450 yuan/ton. In the market, material manufacturers have been more active in production this week, and the production of leading material manufacturers has begun to recover, but the production of some second - tier material manufacturers has declined, mainly due to the adjustment of the downstream cell supply - chain structure and a slight decline in downstream power orders. On the demand side, energy - storage demand continues to improve. On the one hand, the US has lowered tariffs on China, and downstream cell manufacturers are eager to rush for exports, resulting in a slight increase in orders. In terms of price settlement, the average price of lithium iron phosphate showed a slight upward trend in April as a whole. Some lithium - iron - phosphate manufacturers hoped to increase the processing fee in the second quarter, but there was no substantial result after negotiations with downstream cell manufacturers. However, at present, the price of lithium - iron raw materials has started to decline, so the price of lithium iron in May is also expected to decline to some extent. In addition, some cell manufacturers will restart bidding in June, and the probability of a price increase before then is low. Considering these two points, SMM expects that the second - quarter processing fee will be difficult to increase [27]. III. In - depth Analysis of Industrial - Chain Data - **Lithium - Ore Price**: The report provides the price trends of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) and lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2%) through charts, including data such as price changes, increases and decreases, and average prices [32]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Price**: The report shows the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate through charts, including data such as price changes, increases and decreases, and average prices [35]. - **Processing Cost and Cash Production Cost**: The report presents the processing costs of lithium carbonate from lithium - mica concentrate and spodumene concentrate and the cash production costs of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and purchased lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) through charts [38]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Profit**: The report shows the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and purchased lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical arbitrage profit of lithium carbonate, including theoretical delivery profit, import profit, export profit of lithium hydroxide, and theoretical delivery profit of lithium - carbonate production from lithium - mica ore and spodumene ore through charts [41]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Weekly Operation and Production**: The report provides the weekly operation rates of lithium - carbonate production from spodumene, lithium - mica, and salt lakes, as well as the weekly production of lithium carbonate from different smelting methods and the total weekly production of lithium carbonate in China through charts [44]. - **Cell Shipment and Battery Inventory**: The report shows the monthly shipment volume of power cells (including lithium - iron - phosphate, ternary, and total) and the inventory of lithium batteries (including energy - storage batteries and power batteries) through charts [47]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: The report presents the production volume of new - energy vehicles (including pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and total) and the sales volume and proportion of new - energy vehicles through charts [50]. - **Lithium - Carbonate Inventory**: The report shows the monthly and weekly inventory of lithium carbonate (including total, downstream, smelter, and other inventories) through charts [53].

供应压力较大，锂价弱势寻底 碳酸锂周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端-3月锂辉石进口量环比小幅减少 锂精矿月度进口量 锂矿石进口结构 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 2021-04-01 2021-06-01 2021-08-01 2021-10-01 2021-12-01 2022-02-01 2022-04-01 2022-06-01 2022-08-01 2022-10-01 2022-12-01 2023-02-01 2023-04-01 2023-06-01 2023-08-01 2023-10-01 2023-1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 13.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 208% [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 3 billion, down 58% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.2 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 175% and a year-on-year decline of 345% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.584 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 104 million, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [1] Operational Developments - The company has expanded its lithium chemical product capacity to over 120,000 tons, with Greenbushes currently having a total lithium concentrate capacity of approximately 1.62 million tons per year [2] - In 2024, the company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate, including 1.353 million tons of chemical-grade lithium concentrate and 57,000 tons of technical-grade lithium concentrate [2] - The construction of key projects is progressing steadily, with the chemical-grade plant No. 3's dry processing facility completed, and the wet processing facility construction is set to advance in the first half of 2025 [2] Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.768 billion, 3.176 billion, and 5.150 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 27, 15, and 9 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported an improvement in profitability in Q1, with ongoing expansion in resource capacity [1] - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208% [1] - The main reasons for the profitability improvement include a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore and the resolution of tax disputes impacting net profit [1] - The company is expanding its resource capacity, with planned lithium chemical product capacity exceeding 120,000 tons [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.768 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 15, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 67.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -7.905 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 208.3% [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 46.1% in 2024, improving to 50.2% by 2027 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to recover from -18.9% in 2024 to 9.9% in 2027 [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive, reaching 3.14 yuan by 2027 [5]

Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Industry**: Lithium Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.68% [3] - The operating cash flow reached 952 million yuan, indicating robust cash flow performance [3] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 44.42 million yuan [2][3] Factors Contributing to Performance Improvement - The improvement in performance is attributed to optimized supply chain management and a shortened lithium ore pricing cycle, which mitigated the impact of pricing mechanism mismatches [2][4] - The cost of chemical-grade lithium concentrate has approached the latest procurement prices due to new lithium spodumene purchases and inventory digestion [2][4] - The production capacity ramp-up and technological upgrades at self-owned factories contributed to a year-on-year increase in lithium compounds and derivatives production and sales [2][5] SQM Investment Impact - The tax dispute resolution with SQM has been confirmed for the 2024 fiscal year, with a positive impact on Tianqi's profits due to increased investment returns from SQM [2][6] Procurement and Pricing Strategy - The current procurement price for lithium ore from Talison is approximately 700 to 750 yuan, based on a weighted average of data from four pricing agencies [2][7] - Despite recent declines in lithium ore prices, Talison's cost advantages remain significant, with cash costs showing little change [2][8] Inventory and Sales Strategy - The average inventory cost has decreased to around 700 to 800 yuan, aligning with current market procurement prices [2][9] - The company employs a long-term sales strategy, maintaining good relationships with downstream customers and adjusting pricing based on market conditions [2][13][14] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The lithium industry is facing challenges due to lower prices, but domestic production remains stable, with Talison maintaining cost advantages [2][21] - The decline in lithium prices may accelerate market clearing, benefiting cost-advantaged companies [2][22] Future Production Expectations - Overall production is expected to increase steadily, with new projects anticipated to ramp up significantly by 2026 [2][18] - The first phase of the Kwinana project has seen some production improvements, but overall capacity utilization has not yet met expectations [2][19] Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on strengthening upstream resources while maintaining a balanced approach across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations [2][31][33] - There is an emphasis on enhancing downstream strategies due to perceived weaknesses in that area over the past few years [2][33] Market Outlook - The company remains focused on long-term demand and industry growth, despite short-term price fluctuations influenced by external factors [2][34] - The company is prepared for potential futures trading but is waiting for favorable market conditions to proceed [2][24] Additional Notes - The company has no immediate plans for production maintenance during the Spring Festival, but regular safety inspections are conducted annually [2][35]

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected loose supply of domestic lithium carbonate in April and the weakening price trend, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Price - On April 24, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 68,380 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan. The trading volume of the active contract was 104,384 lots, a decrease of 111,782 lots from the previous day, and the open interest increased by 6,068 lots. The inventory decreased by 180 tons [1] - The average prices of various lithium minerals (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) remained unchanged compared to the previous day, while the average prices of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic, 99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of some lithium compounds (lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate) decreased, while the average prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly [1] Industry News and Company Dynamics - In April 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology upgraded the "no fire, no explosion" requirement for electric vehicle power batteries from a recommended standard to a mandatory one [2] - The 20,000 - ton iron phosphate lithium hydroxide material project of Baiyin Times Ruitai New Material Technology Co., Ltd. was officially put into production in Baiyin City, Gansu Province. The total planned production capacity of the project is 100,000 tons, to be built in three phases [2] - Fangyuan Co., Ltd. decided to terminate the "Battery - grade Lithium Carbonate Production and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Lithium - ion Batteries Project" with a planned investment of no more than 2 billion yuan, and has invested 97 million yuan in the project [2] - Linyi Bucha Weimang Environmental Protection New Material Co., Ltd. plans to invest 100 million yuan to build a project for recycling and reusing 10,000 tons of waste lithium - ion batteries annually [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project at Greenbushes may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium ore. The monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate may increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo maintenance, and new production capacity will be put into operation [3][5] - Demand side: The downstream demand for lithium products is gradually recovering. The production and inventory of some products (such as lithium iron phosphate) may increase, while the export volume of some products (such as lithium hydroxide) may decrease [3][5]

天齐锂业（002466）公告，预计第一季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8200万元–1.23亿元，上年同 期为亏损38.97亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为3200万元–4800万元，上年同期为亏损39.17亿元； 基本每股收益为0.05元/股–0.08元/股，上年同期为亏损2.38元/股。公司业绩变动主要原因是锂产品销售 价格下降、化学级锂精矿成本基本贴近最新采购价格、锂化合物及衍生品产销量同比增长以及联营公司 SQM投资收益较上年同期增长。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market conditions and trends in the mining and materials industry, particularly focusing on supply and demand dynamics since late February and early March [1][2]. Key Points - The market has been experiencing a weak oscillation, with a notable support level around 75,000, which has shown resistance to downward movement [1][4]. - Recent trading activity reflects a response to previous expectations, indicating a feedback loop between market sentiment and fundamental conditions [2][12]. - Current spot prices for materials, such as electric meal, are around 74,500, aligning with market trends [3]. - Supply and demand expectations have shifted, with indications of a potential oversupply beginning in March due to the resumption of production by major manufacturers [7][12]. - The demand side remains stable but lacks significant growth, with seasonal improvements noted in March [4][10]. - Inventory levels have been increasing, suggesting a potential weakening in demand despite stable order volumes [11][12]. Additional Insights - The cost structure for raw materials is undergoing adjustments, with integrated costs showing a downward trend, which may provide some relief to pricing pressures [5][6]. - The production capacity is expanding, with a notable increase in output and operational rates among major producers [8]. - The sentiment in the market is currently pessimistic, with expectations of further declines in prices, particularly if panic selling occurs [14][15]. - There is a suggestion for investors to consider options trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with current market volatility [15]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is characterized by a fragile balance between supply and demand, with increasing inventories and stable but uninspiring demand. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for further price declines if market conditions do not improve. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely and consider strategic trading options.