Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: The strategy for steel is to be bullish with oscillations. [2] - Iron ore: The strategy for iron ore is to oscillate. [4] - Coking coal and coke: The strategies for coking coal and coke are both to be bullish with oscillations. [7] - Thermal coal: There is no investment strategy provided for thermal coal. [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are all showing upward trends. The supply of coal is facing disturbances, which has led to an increase in the valuation of commodities. [1][3][5][8] - The steel market is in the off - season for consumption, but the de - stocking performance is slightly better than the seasonal expectation. The plate shows strong consumption resilience. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment, and the implementation of policies and demand changes need to be followed up. [1] - In the iron ore market, under the influence of macro - policies, the market speculative sentiment has improved significantly, and the supply and demand fundamentals are good in the short term. However, in the long term, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is tight, and the demand for coke is strong. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round increase. [6] - In the thermal coal market, the price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and the market sentiment at ports is weak. The supply is expected to change, and the future supply and demand are expected to be tight. [8] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3,264 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract was 3,431 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market increased significantly, and the spot price followed the increase. The national building materials trading volume was 126,000 tons. [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The building materials are in the off - season, with slightly increased inventory and slightly decreased production. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment. [1] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 823.0 yuan/ton, with a 2.49% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports continued to rise, but the trading sentiment was cold. The total transaction volume of main ports was 1.233 million tons, a 30.20% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 920,000 tons, a 42.50% decrease. [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Macro - policies have increased disturbances, and the market speculative sentiment has improved. The supply has strong support, and the global shipment has increased. The demand is guaranteed as the molten iron production remains high, and the inventory at ports has not increased significantly. In the long term, the supply and demand are relatively loose. [3] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to oscillate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black varieties all rose. The coking coal futures had multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The second - round price increase of coke spot was implemented, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase. The price of Mongolian coking coal continued to rise. [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight due to restricted coal mine production. The demand for coke is strong as steel mills' profits are good and the molten iron production remains high. The trading volume of spot coking coal and coke has increased. [6] - **Strategy**: The strategies for coking coal and coke for a single - side position are both to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and some coal mines' prices have decreased. The market sentiment at ports is weak, and the trading volume is small. The price of imported coal is high, but the trading activity is low. [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Some coal mines have resumed production, and the supply is gradually being released. With the continuous high temperature, the demand is expected to strengthen. The market expects future supply and demand to be tight. [8] - **Strategy**: There is no investment strategy provided. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is optimistic about the short - term and medium - term trends of iron ore 2509. In the short term, it is expected to rise, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile and moderately strong state. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is good, and the price will run strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a volatile and moderately strong state, and the intraday view is also a volatile and moderately strong state. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good, and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore have improved. The inventory has been depleted again. During the off - season, steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. The profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore is acceptable, which strongly supports the ore price. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, it is difficult to increase the short - term domestic arrivals according to the shipping schedule. The overseas ore supply is low, and the domestic ore production is stable. The ore supply has shrunk in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good. Coupled with the continued optimistic market sentiment, the ore price remains high and runs strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Different Iron Ore Types Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: price 793, daily change 12, weekly change 46, converted to futures 848.7, import profit -29.89 [1] - PB powder: price 798, daily change 14, weekly change 47, converted to futures 847.0, import profit -6.43 [1] - Macarthur powder: price 778, daily change 13, weekly change 50, converted to futures 849.8, import profit -7.32 [1] - Jinbuba powder: price 768, daily change 11, weekly change 50, converted to futures 862.4, import profit 3.86 [1] - Mixed powder: price 728, daily change 15, weekly change 51, converted to futures 857.0, import profit 6.65 [1] - Super Special powder: price 673, daily change 14, weekly change 39, converted to futures 887.1, import profit -6.73 [1] - Carajás powder: price 898, daily change 9, weekly change 43, converted to futures 843.7, import profit -21.63 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian blend: price 829, daily change 14, weekly change 44, converted to futures 844.9, import profit -2.89 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: price 788, daily change 27, weekly change 62 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: price 793, daily change 27, weekly change 62 [1] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian concentrate: price 885, daily change 15, weekly change 51 [1] - 61% Indian powder: price 757, daily change 11, weekly change 50 [1] - Karara concentrate: price 885, daily change 15, weekly change 51 [1] - Roy Hill powder: price 768, daily change 14, weekly change 47, converted to futures 845.4, import profit -1.69 [1] - South African powder: price 858, daily change 14, weekly change 47 [1] - 57% Indian powder: price 628, daily change 14, weekly change 39 [1] - Atlas powder: price 723, daily change 15, weekly change 51 [1] Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 932, daily change 19, weekly change 44, converted to futures 819.0 [1] Group 4: Exchange Contracts - i2601: price 793.5, daily change 17.0, weekly change 55.0, monthly spread 29.5, spread value 50.2, daily spread change -3.1, weekly spread change -5.0 [1] - i2605: price 770.5, daily change 15.5, weekly change 52.0, monthly spread 23.0, spread value 73.2, daily spread change -1.6, weekly spread change -2.0 [1] - i2509: price 823.0, daily change 14.0, weekly change 56.0, monthly spread -52.5, spread value 20.7, daily spread change -0.1, weekly spread change -6.0 [1] - FE01: price 101.65, daily change 2.37, weekly change 2.93, spread 1.91, spread value -30.8, daily spread change -2.2, weekly spread change 31.2 [1] - FE05: price 99.47, daily change 2.18, weekly change 2.37, spread 2.18, spread value -36.1, daily spread change -2.2, weekly spread change 32.8 [1] - FE09: price 103.56, daily change 2.75, weekly change 3.76, spread -4.09 [1]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

市场消息：美国发布铁矿石生产商监管豁免公告。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has dropped, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a neutral state [2]. - Port inventories stand at 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish tendency [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production decreases, supply arrival drops, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war eases, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827, basis is 18; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 887, basis is 78, spot at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Price above 20 - day moving average and 20 - day moving average upward, bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Net short position of the main iron ore contract, short positions decreasing, bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand declines, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, market expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely to be Bullish**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Increased future shipments, weak terminal demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel has boosted market sentiment, but the demand is in a seasonal weak period, and the inventory is expected to rise further [2]. - For iron ore, although it is in the consumption off - season and the iron - water output is expected to decline, the rising prices of related products such as rebar, coking coal, and glass will support the iron - ore price in the short term, and the decline in port inventory also provides support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, which has boosted market sentiment and led to a pulsed rise in futures prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The output of rebar decreased last week, the factory inventory decreased, the social inventory continued to rise, and the total inventory increased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the plate sector is better than that for building materials. In the summer high - temperature season, demand will weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing strong short - term performance [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. After adjustment, consider buying on dips, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees, with the hot - rolled coil futures closing price rising by 3.60% week - on - week and the spot price rising by 3.64% [2]. - **Production**: The national building - material steel mill rebar output decreased by 3.51% week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 4.30% week - on - week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.64% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.10% week - on - week last week. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen strongly, breaking through the suppression of multiple resistance levels above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for the price to pull back before buying on dips [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased, with the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price rising by 5.54% week - on - week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment decreased by 10.51% week - on - week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment increased by 17.37% week - on - week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and the port trade - ore inventory decreased by 0.50% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2371.2 million tons, a decrease of 290.9 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1389.2 million tons, an increase of 241.3 million tons month - on - month [7]. - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons month - on - month [7]. - On July 21st, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the price of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton for steel - mill customers starting from July 22nd [7]. - In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative iron - ore loading volume was 2466.24 million tons, with a daily average loading volume of 176.16 million tons/day, a 3.21% increase compared to the same period last year [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is gradually accepting the TACO trade, where investors bet on a rebound in the stock market amid Trump's tariff threats, leading to increased risk appetite and positive valuation for commodities as expectations for Fed rate cuts rise [1] - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are proactively supporting the market, with expectations for incremental policies remaining strong, positively impacting iron ore prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The expected increase in shipments from the four major mining companies for 2025 has been adjusted down to 5.5 million tons, significantly lower than the initial market expectations of 20-25 million tons [2] - Brazilian Vale's shipment increase is approximately 5 million tons, while Australian Rio Tinto is expected to see a reduction of about 5 million tons due to adverse weather conditions [2] - Domestic iron ore production is declining due to price drops and increased maintenance, with a reported 9.76% year-on-year decrease in iron concentrate production in May [4] Group 3: Demand Factors - Domestic demand for iron ore remains strong, supported by high steel production and infrastructure investments, with a 3.27% year-on-year increase in pig iron production from January to May [5] - The overall pig iron production for the first half of the year is projected to be around 84.3 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline expected [5] Group 4: Inventory Trends - Domestic ports have been reducing inventories due to supply contractions and resilient demand, with expectations for a slight accumulation of iron ore inventory to around 15 million tons by the end of the year [6] - The forecast for Dalian iron ore futures prices is set between 690 RMB/ton and 790 RMB/ton, corresponding to external prices of 91 USD/ton to 105 USD/ton [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].