2月5日盘中，铂期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至516.35元。截止发稿，铂主力合约报 533.05元，跌幅9.20%。 铂期货主力跌超9%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 国信期货：铂钯或延续高位震荡的格局 消息面上，劳工部宣布将于2月4日恢复全面运作，关键经济数据将陆续发布，其中非农就业数据定于2 月11日公布，CPI数据改至2月13日公布，数据公布前整体情绪偏向谨慎，削弱了投机性买盘的意愿。 另一方面，俄乌谈判进展与伊美核谈判计划重开的消息，虽然缓和程度有限，但仍为市场提供了地缘紧 张可能通过外交途径纾解的想象空间，这在一定程度上削弱了铂族金属的避险溢价。展望后市，铂钯或 延续高位震荡的格局。操作上，建议以观望为主，多看少动。 正信期货：铂中期或逐步宽幅震荡回落 铂2025年的基本面仍是延续过去几年供需相对平衡的状态，无明显的过剩或缺口。回到盘面，铂价近几 个月大幅上涨主要是受到白银大幅上涨的带动，铂与白银类似，都是兼具金融属性和工业属性的品种， 因此后续铂价波动或仍紧密跟随白银节奏。盘面上，金银单边行情或阶段性终结，考虑到铂的基本面及 价格弹性，铂中期或逐步宽幅震荡回落 ...

重大行情/事件点评 贵金属市场波动、政策变革与历史镜鉴 2026 年2 月5 日 研究员：赵嘉瑜 13686866941 zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn Z0016776 近期贵金属市场出现史诗级波动，白银价格暴涨暴跌的态势，与 1979-1980 年亨 特兄弟白银逼仓事件形成跨越时空的呼应。与此同时，2026 年美国政坛迎来重要 变动，特朗普提名凯文・沃什出任下一任美联储主席，其政策主张引发市场对美 国货币政策、财政纪律及全球资产定价的广泛热议。本报告整合相关宏观分析成 果，从历史复盘、当下市场特征、政策变革挑战及投资启示四大维度，系统剖析 贵金属市场波动逻辑与美国经济政策走向，为市场参与者提供参考。 风险提示：沃什未能成为美联储主席 微信公众号：招商期货研究所 敬请阅读末页的重要声明 期货研究 一、 历史复盘：1979-1980 年白银逼仓事件始末 （一） 时代背景：滞胀危机与货币体系变革 20 世纪 70 年代，美国深陷滞胀泥潭，中东二次石油危机爆发导致 CPI 飙升至 12.5%，黄金、白银成为核心避险资产。布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，大宗商品价格暴涨， 股市、债市持续低迷，形成商品资源 ...

2月5日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至18500.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合约 报20427.00元，跌幅10.09%。 五矿期货：贵金属延续此前震荡修复行情 贵金属延续此前震荡修复行情，在空头回补过程中市场风格偏谨慎。策略上暂时保持观望，沪金主力合 约参考运行区间1050-1300元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间22000-25000元/千克。 大越期货：白银高位波动率极大，谨慎操作 美股大型科技股大跌，银价冲高回落，未站稳90美元关口，多空博弈剧烈，仍需等待波动率下降。沪银 远期贴水结构未变，看涨情绪依旧强劲。沪银溢价维持至3300元/克，国内情绪再升温。银价跌幅企稳 有反弹趋势，向上趋势不变，白银高位波动率极大，谨慎操作。 沪银期货主力跌超10%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 创元期货 金银短期或将进入震荡降波过程 五矿期货 贵金属延续此前震荡修复行情 大越期货 白银高位波动率极大，谨慎操作 创元期货：金银短期或将进入震荡降波过程 金银短期或将进入震荡降波过程。中长期依然维持年报观点。短期关注经济数据，美伊谈判，以及特朗 普周五早上讲话。 ...

目前来看，铁矿石行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于铁矿石后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 2月5日，国内期市黑色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报779.5元/吨，今日盘中低 位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，铁矿石主力最高触及779.5元，下方探低764.0元，跌幅达2.05%。 正信期货指出，昨日小样本数据显示钢厂加速减产，铁矿需求增量不足，矿价弱势回调延续。本周澳巴 发运环比回升，到港略有增加，但供应增量偏平。总体供应环比略有回升；需求方面，铁水产量变化不 大，铁矿终端需求环比变动不明显；库存来看，疏港量止跌回升，港口库存继续累积，钢厂补库需求提 前释放，库存环比继续增加。综合来看，近期铁矿供需结构变化不明显，盘面一方面交易钢厂提前补库 支撑矿价、一方面受到钢材走弱压制，整体价格仍维持弱势回调结构。考虑到成材拖累效果延续，以及 钢厂提前补库对于后续需求的透支效果，预计矿价仍有回调空间。 国元期货表示，近期铁矿价格震荡偏弱。1月下旬，宏观情绪释放，黑色板价格回归基本面。终端需求 偏弱，钢厂复产谨慎，铁水产量难增。上游库存持续累库，压制矿价反弹空间。 国都期货分析称，消息面，央行信贷 ...

Hot News - Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified Iran's official stance on the talks with the US in Oman, stating that the negotiations will be held in Muscat around 10 am on February 6. The US previously rejected Iran's proposal to change the meeting location from Istanbul, Turkey, to Oman, causing concern in the Middle East [2] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will release the January non - farm payroll report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of the January CPI inflation report to February 13 [2] - A Reuters survey showed that due to a surge in exports during the seasonal production slowdown, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will end a 10 - month growth streak in January. Palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% decrease from December. Production is expected to fall 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline, but it may still be the highest January production since 2019 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in Sino - US relations, and the US must handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [3] - EIA report data showed that in the week ending January 30, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a 0.82% decline. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [3] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are urea, coking coal, platinum, crude oil, and Shanghai copper [4] Night - session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.09% increase; precious metals had a 34.97% increase; oilseeds and fats had an 8.21% increase; soft commodities had a 2.41% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 26.35% increase; coal, coke, steel, and minerals had a 10.07% increase; energy had a 2.32% increase; chemicals had a 9.89% increase; grains had a 0.97% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 2.73% increase [4] Sector Position - The data shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.36%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 1.14%, a monthly increase of 0.09%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.26%; the CSI 300 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48%; the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.15%, a monthly decrease of 0.85%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.16%; the S&P 500 had a daily decrease of 0.51%, a monthly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.54%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.75%; the German DAX had a daily decrease of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 0.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.46%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily decrease of 0.78%, a monthly increase of 1.82%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.85%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74% [6] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.01%, a monthly decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.35%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.04%, a monthly decrease of 0.04%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.09%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.05% [6] Commodities - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.91%, a monthly decrease of 2.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 1.90%, a monthly decrease of 1.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.02%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.38%, a monthly increase of 1.74%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.97%; LME copper had a daily decrease of 3.25%, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.35%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 6.68%, a monthly decrease of 10.35%, and a year - to - date increase of 24.00% [6] Others - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.27%, a monthly increase of 0.55%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.63%; the CBOE volatility index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 3.21%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.40% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as stock market risk preferences and risk premiums [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals leading the gains. International precious metals and oil futures generally rose, while London base metals mostly declined. In the financial market, A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performances, and overseas markets also had various trends. Macroeconomic data from different countries and regions showed different situations, and there were many policy - related and event - driven factors in various industries [5][26][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals like Shanghai silver up over 11%, Shanghai gold up over 7%, and platinum and palladium up over 6%. At night - session close, crude oil futures rose over 3% and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 1.04% and COMEX silver up 5.36%. The US oil and Brent oil main contracts rose 1.99% and 2.09% respectively. London base metals mostly fell [5] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - China's service industry PMI in January rose slightly to 52.3, continuing the expansion trend. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. The People's Bank of China held a credit market work meeting. The US Department of Labor resumed normal operation. US private - sector employment in January increased less than expected. The US Treasury maintained the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion. The EU's investigation of Chinese enterprises using the "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" was of concern. China and the US leaders had a phone call. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report were rescheduled [9][11] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 4, 2026, China's methanol port inventory decreased to 1411,000 tons. Morgan Stanley raised the short - term Brent oil price forecast. The EIA report showed a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic petroleum reserve inventory [13][15] Metal Futures - Goldman Sachs believed there was a significant upward risk to the December 2026 gold price forecast. An Indonesian organization urged to stop the approval of a mining company's quota. Goldman Sachs and Macquarie raised the 2026 nickel price forecasts. The US planned to establish a key - mineral price - floor system. A Reuters survey showed that gold was expected to reach a new high in 2026 [17][18] Black - Series Futures - As of the week ending February 4, national building - material production and apparent demand decreased. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports due to a production - cut plan [21] Agricultural Product Futures - China will stabilize farmers' income from growing grain. India's sugar mills may not sell all the quota, but still expect to export over 1 million tons. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline in January [23] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose on Wednesday, with coal and photovoltaic sectors surging. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly. The number of new margin trading accounts in January increased. The HKEX CEO said there were over 400 companies queuing for listing [26] Industry - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will develop affordable housing. In January, the transaction volume of second - hand houses in 20 cities was relatively active, but there were structural contradictions. China will support the biomanufacturing industry. The cultural and tourism and fire - rescue departments issued a notice on new - type performance venues. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000 [27][29][31] Overseas - Iran - US nuclear talks will be held in Oman. The release dates of US economic data were rescheduled. The Fed will not adjust large - bank capital levels in 2026. The nomination process of the Fed chair nominee was controversial. The US service industry PMI in January fell slightly. The US proposed to raise the loan limit of the Export - Import Bank. The eurozone CPI in January rose at a low level. Cambodia launched an anti - telecom - fraud campaign [32][34][36] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with AMD's sharp drop dragging down the Nasdaq. European stocks also had mixed performances. The South Korean composite index hit a new high. The Nasdaq proposed a "fast - track inclusion" rule. Some companies' financial reports and outlooks were released, with different performances [37][39][40] Commodities - Domestic and international precious metals and oil futures mostly rose, while London base metals mostly fell. Zhongcai Futures made over $500 million from short - selling silver futures. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports [44][46] Bonds - The yields of bank - to - bank bonds fluctuated slightly, and Treasury bond futures fell. China will issue RMB 14 billion of Treasury bonds in Hong Kong. The US Treasury maintained the bond issuance scale, and US bond yields fluctuated [47][48][49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. South Korea's foreign - exchange reserves decreased in January [51] Upcoming Data Releases - Various economic data from different countries and regions will be released at specific times, including stock and bond purchases, trade accounts, manufacturing orders, etc [53] Upcoming Events - There are many events scheduled for February 5 and subsequent days, including central - bank interest - rate decisions, press conferences, corporate earnings releases, and industry seminars [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market fluctuated and then rose, with the Wind All - A index up 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan, and the pro - cyclical sectors were strong. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.02%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.15%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.83%, and the SSE 50 index rose 1.14%. Recent economic control policies provide fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - term. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading increases risk - aversion sentiment, and the market enters a high - level shock mode with increased short - term volatility [1]. - On Wednesday, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02%. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. Against the background of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a shock state. The recent economic control policies from various departments support the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools is beneficial to relevant sectors. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading increases market volatility, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly wait and see [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market is in a shock state. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. The bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the interest rate range - shock pattern continues [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes | Category | Instrument | 2026 - 02 - 04 | 2026 - 02 - 03 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index Futures | IH | 3,071.8 | 3,033.0 | 38.8 | 1.28% | | | IF | 4,693.6 | 4,653.0 | 40.6 | 0.87% | | | IC | 8,313.6 | 8,282.0 | 31.6 | 0.38% | | | IM | 8,203.4 | 8,183.0 | 20.4 | 0.25% | | Stock Index | SSE 50 | 3,069.2 | 3,034.6 | 34.7 | 1.14% | | | SSE 300 | 4,698.7 | 4,660.1 | 38.6 | 0.83% | | | CSI 500 | 8,299.1 | 8,286.7 | 12.4 | 0.15% | | | CSI 1000 | 8,207.1 | 8,209.1 | - 2.0 | - 0.02% | | Treasury Bond Futures | TS | 102.40 | 102.41 | - 0.016 | - 0.02% | | | TF | 105.85 | 105.91 | - 0.055 | - 0.05% | | | T | 108.24 | 108.26 | - 0.02 | - 0.02% | | | TL | 111.70 | 111.96 | - 0.26 | - 0.23% | [3] 3.3 Market News On February 3, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development and the Communist Youth League Central Committee held a symposium. The Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that it is necessary to ensure the basic housing needs of young people through measures such as "a bed, a room, a set of housing" to make young people stay and start businesses. On one hand, it is necessary to develop rental - type affordable housing and public rental housing; on the other hand, for young people with certain economic affordability, develop affordable housing for sale [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their monthly basis trends [5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [20][21][22][23][25][26].

Index Trends - On February 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to close at 4102.2 points with a trading volume of 1063.545 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% to close at 14156.27 points with a trading volume of 1417.426 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.02% with a trading volume of 516.215 billion yuan, opening at 8184.2, closing at 8207.12, with a high of 8216.2 and a low of 8101.2 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.15% with a trading volume of 501.887 billion yuan, opening at 8270.84, closing at 8299.06, with a high of 8309.86 and a low of 8179.35 [1] - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.83% with a trading volume of 636.019 billion yuan, opening at 4647.97, closing at 4698.68, with a high of 4701.48 and a low of 4641.84 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.14% with a trading volume of 169.882 billion yuan, opening at 3033.55, closing at 3069.24, with a high of 3070.17 and a low of 3030.34 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Index - The CSI 1000 rose -1.98 points from the previous close. Power equipment, public utilities, and pharmaceutical biology sectors significantly boosted the index, while media, electronics, and computer sectors pulled it down [2] - The CSI 500 rose 12.36 points from the previous close. Pharmaceutical biology, coal, and automobile sectors significantly boosted the index, while computer, media, and electronics sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 300 rose 38.57 points from the previous close. Power equipment, food and beverage, and banking sectors significantly boosted the index, while communication and electronics sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 50 rose 34.66 points from the previous close. Food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking sectors significantly boosted the index, while the electronics sector pulled it down [2] Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Cost of Opening Positions - IM00 average daily basis was -5.88, IM01 was -37.83, IM02 was -194.47, IM03 was -346.69 [13] - IC00 average daily basis was -6.39, IC01 was -28.63, IC02 was -123.59, IC03 was -231.61 [13] - IF00 average daily basis was -4.7, IF01 was -11.25, IF02 was -37.8, IF03 was -89.59 [13] - IH00 average daily basis was -1.2, IH01 was -1.96, IH02 was -8.69, IH03 was -38.43 [13]

周三，此前市场挤出杠杆头寸后贵金属延续周二的震荡修复行情，当前市场处于技术性超跌后 的空头回补与头寸重建，此外就近两天回调幅度来看目前投资者在谨慎试探市场上行阻力位。 2026 年 1 月 ADP 数据显示，美国私营部门仅新增 2.2 万个就业岗位，增幅远低于预期，印证了 劳动力市场的持续放缓。ADP 报告明确指出，私营部门仅新增 2.2 万人，若非教育医疗行业贡 献 7.4 万人的增长形成支撑，整体就业数据将陷入负增长。从行业表现来看，制造业、专业/ 商业服务等非刚需行业持续处于收缩状态，大型企业裁员现象突出，这一态势充分凸显出美国 劳动力市场正在逐步放缓；不过，教育医疗等刚需行业仍保持较强韧性。 由于 1 月非农就业报告的延期发布，ADP 数据大幅不及预期无疑将强化对美国经济放缓的判断， 叠加美联储当前票委的立场占比或将进一步推动市场对于未来降息节奏加快的预期。但另一方 面，教育医疗等刚需行业的稳定表现对经济形成支撑，加之 ISM 非制造业 PMI 也未出现显著恶 化，表明美国经济仍具备一定韧性，美联储的降息幅度或仍将保持相对谨慎。 美国财政部季度再融资声明维持长期国债发行规模不变，且未释放削减长期债券供 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the space photovoltaic technology is in the early stage of exploration and verification, and it's too early to determine a clear technical direction. Currently, GaAs batteries are the mainstream choice for commercial aerospace and space stations, while HJT perovskite technology is still far from large - scale commercialization [1]. - In the service industry, the 2026 Credit Market Work Conference of the People's Bank of China required to accurately grasp the economic and financial situation changes in the 15th Five - Year Plan period, strengthen financial services in key areas, and develop various types of finance [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Upstream - **有色 (Non - ferrous metals)**: The price of electrolytic copper fluctuates, and the price of nickel continues to fall. The spot price of copper on February 4 is 104,786.7 yuan/ton, up 3.11% year - on - year; the spot price of zinc is 24,886.0 yuan/ton, down 1.39% year - on - year; the spot price of aluminum is 23,780.0 yuan/ton, down 2.00% year - on - year; the spot price of another type of aluminum is 16,481.3 yuan/ton, down 2.26% year - on - year [3][36]. - **农业 (Agriculture)**: The price of eggs has a callback. On February 4, the spot price of eggs is 7.7 yuan/kg, down 10.08% year - on - year. The spot price of corn is 2,267.1 yuan/ton, down 0.19% year - on - year; the spot price of palm oil is 9,074.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39% year - on - year; the spot price of cotton is 16,016.3 yuan/ton, down 0.59% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of pork is 18.4 yuan/kg, down 0.92% year - on - year [3][36]. - **黑色 (Black commodities)**: Black commodities decline slightly. The spot price of螺纹钢 (rebar) on February 4 is 3,177.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% year - on - year; the spot price of铁矿石 (iron ore) is 805.6 yuan/ton, down 0.38% year - on - year; the spot price of线材 is 3,377.5 yuan/ton, down 0.88% year - on - year [3][36]. B. Midstream - **化工 (Chemical industry)**: The operating rates of PX and urea remain at high levels. On February 4, the spot price of PTA is 5,151.1 yuan/ton, down 3.08% year - on - year; the spot price of polyethylene is 6,930.0 yuan/ton, up 0.36% year - on - year; the spot price of urea is 1,777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.43% year - on - year; the spot price of soda ash is 1,201.4 yuan/ton, down 0.12% year - on - year [3][36]. - **能源 (Energy)**: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level. The coal price on February 4 is 800.0 yuan/ton, down 0.50% year - on - year; the spot price of WTI crude oil is 63.2 dollars/barrel, up 1.31% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 67.3 dollars/barrel, up 1.11% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3,728.0 yuan/ton, up 3.61% year - on - year [3][36]. - **农业 (Agriculture)**: The operating rate of pork products increases [3]. C. Downstream - **地产 (Real estate)**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities decline seasonally [3]. - **服务 (Service)**: The number of domestic flights is at a high level [3].