金融研究 2026年3月9日 星期一 金融期货早班车 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 金融研究 （一） 股指期现货市场表现 表 1：股指期现货市场表现 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 持仓量 | 日增仓量 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收益率% | | IC2603 | 中证 2603 | 1.17 | 8322.6 | 96.4 | 81441 | 13554037 | 116622 | -8804 | 8329.2 | 37.7 | -10.3 | | IC2604 | 中证 2604 | 1.14 | 8283.2 | 93.2 | 7524 | 1246034 | 14486 | 1337 | 8285.6 | 77.1 | -7.7 | | IC2606 | 中证 2606 | 1.12 | 8150.8 | 90.4 | 34517 | 5623066 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment for various varieties, with "cautiously bullish" for many including stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), bonds (TF, TS), crude oil, etc., and "cautiously bearish" for some like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, there are policies like GDP growth expectations and a national - level merger fund, along with a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts increase commodity uncertainties. Different commodities have their own influencing factors and price trends. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Chief Comment - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, the NDRC expects GDP growth to exceed 6 trillion yuan this year and a national - level merger fund is set up. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity uncertainties, with energy and precious metals affected. [1] 3.2. Key Varieties Crude Oil - Due to the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed, cutting off oil supply and pushing up crude - oil futures. There are a series of supply disruptions and storage crises, and some countries have cut production. [2][12] Gold - Short - term: The Fed's lower - than - expected interest - rate cut expectations and a stronger US dollar suppress precious metals. Long - term: Multiple factors like geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, and de - dollarization support the upward trend of gold. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall trend with larger fluctuations. [3][18] Methanol - Methanol night - trading rose 5.43%. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly compared to the previous period but increased compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory is at a medium - high level historically and is rising. [4][13] 3.3. Variety Views - A table shows the possibility judgment of "cautiously bearish" or "cautiously bullish" for various varieties, but it is a possibility judgment rather than a definite one. [6] 3.4. Main News Focus of the Day International News - Israel warns about Iran's leadership change, threatening those involved in the election. [7] Domestic News - At a press conference, officials from the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the NDRC announced more active fiscal policies, interest - rate regulation, and the establishment of a national - level merger fund. The central bank will use multiple monetary policy tools. [7] Industry News - China's gold reserves increased for the 16th consecutive month in February. [7] 3.5. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the price, change amount, and change rate of various overseas market varieties such as the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. from March 5th to March 6th. [8] 3.6. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Stock Indices - US stock indices fell, while domestic stock indices rebounded. As annual and first - quarter reports are released, the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". In the long run, stock indices will return to a structural market. [9] Bonds - Bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal this week did not significantly tighten the money market. Overseas factors and domestic policies support bond - futures prices in the short term. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Persian - Gulf conflict disrupts oil supply, leading to a significant increase in crude - oil futures prices. [12] Methanol - Methanol prices rose at night. The operating load of related plants decreased, and coastal inventory increased. [4][13] Rubber - Geopolitical conflicts drive up the price of crude oil, which in turn supports the price of rubber. The supply is seasonally low, and the demand is expected to recover after the holiday, so the rubber price is expected to be strong. [14] Polyolefins - Polyolefins continued the bullish trend on Friday. The increase in international crude - oil prices boosts polyolefins. [15] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures closed up, with inventory increasing after the holiday. Soda - ash futures rebounded, and the supply is high with inventory accumulation, facing inventory - digestion pressure. [16][17] Metals Precious Metals - Short - term suppression and long - term upward trend due to various factors such as US employment data, inflation, and de - dollarization. [3][18] Copper - Copper prices fell at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may fluctuate in a range. [19] Zinc - Zinc prices rose at night. Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals. [20] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The conflict affects aluminum production and transportation in the Middle East, and the long - term low inventory and supply constraints support the price. [21] Black Metals Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply increased, and demand weakened in the short term. However, with the resumption of work, the demand is expected to improve, and the price may be affected by geopolitical conflicts. [22] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strong at night. Brazil's soybean production forecast was lowered, and supply disruptions in the Middle East supported US soybean prices, so the domestic protein - meal price is expected to be strongly volatile. [23] Oils and Fats - Oil prices continued to be strong at night. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline, and geopolitical risks and bio - fuel expectations support the price, which is expected to remain high and volatile. [24] Pigs - The pig market is weak, with sufficient supply and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to continue to bottom out. [25] Shipping Index Container Shipping to Europe - The EC index fell on Friday. The SCFI European - line price rose slightly. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the shipping market, and the freight rate will enter a period of greater volatility. [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market showed a volatile trend last week, with a sharp decline at the beginning due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and a gradual recovery in sentiment later with the opening of the Two - Sessions policy window. The small - and medium - cap index futures declined significantly, while the large - cap blue - chip futures were relatively resistant to decline. In the short term, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong shock with structural opportunities, but the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, and market volatility may remain high [29][31][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: Last week, the domestic stock index futures market closed down. The IF contract of CSI 300 futures closed at 4,646.0 with a weekly decline of 1.44%; the IH contract of SSE 50 futures closed at 2,990.0 with a weekly decline of 1.82%; the IC contract of CSI 500 futures closed at 8,322.6 with a weekly decline of 3.73%; the IM contract of CSI 1000 futures closed at 8,211.8 with a weekly decline of 3.75% [6] - **Bond Futures**: Last week, the treasury bond futures closed up. The 30 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.59% and closed at 112.780 yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.13% and closed at 108.535 yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.12% and closed at 106.110 yuan; the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a weekly increase of 0.05% and closed at 102.496 yuan [7] - **A - share Market**: On March 6, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to close at 4124.19 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to close at 14172.63 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.38% to close at 3229.30 points. Most industry sectors closed up, with agricultural chemicals, chemical raw materials, and other sectors leading the gains, while ground military equipment, industrial metals, and other sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 193.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy News**: The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, announced two new measures: deepening the reform of the ChiNext Board and optimizing the refinancing mechanism. The overall plan for the ChiNext reform is basically in shape. On March 6, the CSRC issued the "Several Provisions on the Supervision of Short - term Trading", which will come into effect on April 7, 2026 [9] - **US Economic Data**: The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, with an expected increase of 59,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and other data also showed signs of economic weakness [9] - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 161.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1.525 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.3634 trillion yuan. This week, 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 150 billion yuan of one - month treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature on Tuesday [9][10] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - **Index Valuations**: As of March 6, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 14.19 times, with a percentile of 86.27%, and the PB was 1.5 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.56 times, with a percentile of 81.57%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 37.55 times, with a percentile of 88.04%, and the PB was 2.60 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 49.98 times, with a percentile of 82.94%, and the PB was 2.69 times [13] - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [25] 3.4 China - Buffett Indicator - On March 6, 2026, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 92.10%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 91.96%, and in the past 10 - year data, it was 96.00% [29] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - **Market Influencing Factors**: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict in the first half of the week led to a global risk - aversion sentiment, which put pressure on the A - share market. The opening of the Two - Sessions policy window in the second half of the week boosted market confidence. The US non - farm payroll data also disturbed market sentiment [32] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: As the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on the re - inflation expectation is gradually digested, the focus of the market has shifted to the Two - Sessions. The market is expected to be in a relatively strong shock with structural opportunities in the short term. For trading, one can consider buying on dips in the shock, pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between IM, IC, and IH, and use covered call writing to increase returns or buy out - of - the - money put options to hedge risks [33][34]

2026年03月09日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五贵金属反弹，国际金价涨 1.73%至 5170 美元/盎司，国际银价涨 2.59%至 84.33 美元/盎司。 基本面：美国 2 月非农就业人口净减少 9.2 万，远低于预期，创 2020 年以来第二次单月负增长；失业率升至 4.4%。BLS 同步下修前值，合计调降 6.9 万人；中东局势继续紧张，阿联酋、科威特宣布减产；哈梅内伊之 子接任伊朗最高领袖；中国 2 月末黄金储备环比增加 3 万盎司，连续 16 个月增持；贝莱德限制 260 亿美元基 金赎回，黑石 BCRED 遭创纪录 7.9%赎回申请。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 2 吨；COMEX 黄金库存为 1029.4 吨，+1.86 吨；上期所黄金库存为 105 吨，维持不变；SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1081 吨，维持不变；伦敦黄 金库存 1 月底 9155.8 吨，12 月底为 9103 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 10926.7 吨，-27.3 吨；上期所白银库存 为 272.72 吨，-22.1 吨；iShares 白银 E ...

文字早评 2026/03/09 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、两会首提"算电一体"，相关个股受到市场热议； 4、深圳市龙岗区人工智能署就 OpenClaw&OPC 发展公开征询意见。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：7.50%/4.95%/8.74%/6.69%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：10.92%/7.70%/13.19%/9.63%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：10.87%/8.93%/15.74%/11.40%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.19%/1.31%/2.69%/3.78%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，国内 两会延续了适度宽松的货币、更积极的财政政策，建议关注以及战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 112.780 ，环比变化 0.01%；T 主力合约收于 108.535 ，环比变化 -0.01%；TF 主力合约收于 106.110 ，环比变化 0.00%；TS 主力合约收于 102.496 ，环比变化-0.01%。 消息方面：1、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month PMI indicators show a mild economy, and the 2026 government work report's economic growth target and deficit rate are in line with market expectations. The stock market (Wande A - share) rose slightly last Friday, and the trading volume shrank. Treasury bond futures showed a sideways movement last Friday, and they may fluctuate in the short - term. [1][2] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2606 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.01%. [1] - Last Friday, Wande A - share opened slightly lower, rose in the morning session, fluctuated sideways in the afternoon, and closed up 0.71% with a trading volume of 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous trading day's 2.41 trillion yuan. [2] Important Information - Open market: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 269 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan. The central bank also carried out 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases due. [1] - Funding market: Last Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market rose slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, compared with 1.27% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.41%, compared with 1.42% in the previous trading day. [1] - Cash bond market: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.54 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.53%, the 10 - year rose 0.31 BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year rose 0.95 BP to 2.28%. [1] - Global manufacturing: In February 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have brought uncertainties to the global economic recovery. [1] - Fiscal policy: In 2026, the total fiscal expenditure will exceed 30 trillion yuan for the first time, the new government bond scale will reach 11.89 trillion yuan, and the central government's transfer payments to local governments will reach 10.42 trillion yuan. The central government has also arranged 100 billion yuan for a package of fiscal - financial policies to boost domestic demand, and there is a 250 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in policy. [1] - Monetary policy: The central bank will flexibly use multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, guide and regulate interest rates, and promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. The central bank will also innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market and expand the scale of re - loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 - 1000 billion yuan. [2] - US economic data: In February, the US unemployment rate was 4.4% (estimated 4.3%, previous value 4.3%); in January, retail sales decreased 0.2% month - on - month (estimated - 0.3%, previous value 0%); in February, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 (estimated increase of 55,000, previous value increase of 130,000). [2] - International situation: Mujtaba, the son of Khamenei, was elected the new supreme leader of Iran. Due to the war, oil transportation in the Middle East has been continuously blocked, and major oil - producing countries have announced production cuts, leading to a continuous increase in international oil prices. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and attention should be paid to the sales volume of electric vehicles [1] - The overall growth trend of China's automobile exports remains unchanged, and the short - term interference in the Middle East market does not change this trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2605 Contract**: The closing price is 156,160, with a change of -19,880 compared to T - 5; the trading volume is 228,224, a decrease of 72,281 compared to T - 1; the open interest is 333,903, with a change of 1,529 compared to T - 1 [1] - **2607 Contract**: The closing price is 156,420, with a change of -20,180 compared to T - 5; the trading volume is 28,339, a decrease of 13,253 compared to T - 1; the open interest is 91,949, a decrease of 1,030 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The quantity is 36,330 hands, a decrease of 510 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2605 contract is -910; the basis between 2605 and 2607 contracts is -260 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,155; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 5,190 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 155,250; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 151,750 [1] - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 54,810; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 190,500 [1] Macro and Industry News - The Chinese government's work report shows that new - quality productivity has developed steadily, and the added values of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have increased by 9.4% and 9.2% respectively. The production of industrial robots and integrated circuits has increased by 28% and 10.9% respectively, and the annual output of new - energy vehicles has exceeded 16 million [2][3] - China's automobile exports have maintained a strong growth trend. Although the Middle East market has short - term interference, it does not change the overall growth trend [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/3/9 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.02%报 5181.30 美元/盎司， 周跌 1.27%，COMEX 白银期货涨 3.06%报 84.69 美元/盎司，周跌 9.21%。 2. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期铝涨 4.10%报 34 ...

Group 1: Policy Information - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy this year, using various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and gradually淡化 the quantitative intermediate targets [2] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year, with a 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial policy to boost domestic demand and a 250 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in policy [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially included recycled lead in the futures delivery system, with the PB2703 contract being the first for recycled lead to participate in futures delivery [3] Group 2: Market Data Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.4278 trillion, up $28.7 billion or 0.85% from the end of January, and gold reserves were 74.22 million ounces, up 30,000 ounces month - on - month [3] Commodity Market - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, fuel oil, crude oil, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.09%, precious metals 30.92%, oilseeds 8.10%, non - ferrous metals 25.64%, soft commodities 2.74%, coal - coking and steel ore 9.48%, energy 5.60%, chemicals 11.50%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural products 2.77% [4] Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% daily, - 0.93% monthly, and 3.91% yearly; S&P 500 fell 1.33% daily, - 2.02% monthly, and - 1.54% yearly; etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had 0.00% daily, 0.13% monthly, and 0.63% yearly changes; etc. [6] - Commodity: WTI crude oil rose 13.31% daily, 36.53% monthly, and 59.63% yearly; LME copper fell 0.26% daily, - 3.21% monthly, and rose 2.98% yearly; etc. [6] - Other: US dollar index fell 0.09% daily, rose 1.34% monthly, and 0.70% yearly; CBOE volatility index rose 24.17% daily, 48.49% monthly, and 97.26% yearly [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese financial market and its mechanisms, particularly focusing on the stability of the market and the role of direct financing and strategic emerging industries in major indices [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments - The term "improving the construction of a Chinese-style market stabilization mechanism" was introduced for the first time, indicating a significant shift in regulatory focus [1]. - There is an emphasis on increasing the proportion of direct financing within the market, which is seen as crucial for the overall health of the financial ecosystem [1]. - The importance of strategic emerging industries in major indices is highlighted, suggesting a shift towards prioritizing these sectors in investment strategies [1]. Additional Important Content - The introduction of the market stabilization mechanism in a public forum suggests a high probability of achieving a "long bull, slow bull" market, with regulatory measures aligning towards this goal [1]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, significant improvements in the governance level of China's capital market are expected, which will manifest in four key areas: 1. Continuous inflow of long-term capital will optimize the structure of market participants [1]. 2. Increased dividend levels will guide listed companies towards modern governance practices [1]. 3. Enhanced penalties for violations will deter short-sighted behaviors [1]. 4. A diversified toolbox for market stabilization will gradually be developed [1]. - Under these policy assumptions, there is an optimistic outlook for the overall index performance throughout the year, with a focus on three main investment narratives: "deposit migration," "order reconstruction," and "technology-driven national strength" [1]. Financial Sector Insights - The futures market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, making it a top recommendation for investors [2]. - The insurance sector's investments are influenced by multiple factors, but adjustments have been made, leading to a positive outlook for absolute returns over a five-year horizon [2].