交银国际研究 行业剖析 2025 年 12 月 2 日 消费行业 2026 年展望：新常态下的消费新动能 2025 年消费小幅回暖，2026 年有望延续温和增长：2025 年以来，中国内 地消费市场延续温和复苏态势，1-10 月社会消费品零售总额累计同比增长 4.3%，显示整体需求处于恢复通道。然而，消费者信心指数虽逐季回升但 仍徘徊在荣枯线下，储蓄意愿维持高位、CPI 低位运行，均反映出消费者 偏谨慎的心态。因此我们看到，性价比趋势下多数细分行业仍面临需求偏 软与竞争加剧的双重压力；但另一方面，消费者更加重视情绪价值，同时 "以旧换新"等政策有效带动家电等品类，相关子行业成为年内消费主 线。展望2026年，消费有望延续温和增长的新常态，其核心特征是总体需 求增速偏缓，但消费理性化与需求层级的上移不断推动结构性分化，进而 成为细分市场的重要增长动力。市场将逐步构建新平衡，以挖掘消费者需 求为核心，更加重视经营效率提升；企业需精准洞察消费趋势，通过产 品、渠道、技术创新与供应链优化，把握新常态下的结构性机会。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes domestic demand as a priority, with a focus on subsequent consumption policies to stimulate both goods and service consumption [3][15] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting investment opportunities within the AI industry chain [4][14] - The report indicates that the government will continue to implement policies to boost consumption, including potential extensions of subsidies and consumption vouchers [15] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference - The conference outlined eight key points, prioritizing domestic demand and the construction of a robust domestic market, alongside innovation, reform, and external openness [3][13] - Specific actions include implementing consumption enhancement initiatives and urban-rural income increase plans, as well as optimizing the supply of quality goods and services [3][15] Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 1.9% this week, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances seeing drops of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively [5][16] - Raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with LME copper increasing by 0.82% and LME aluminum decreasing by 0.03% [5][16] Industry Tracking - The report tracks various segments within the home appliance industry, noting significant sales data and price trends for key brands and products [29][30][34][35] - For instance, brands like Haier and Midea have reported varying sales performance across different product categories, with some experiencing substantial declines [29][30][34] Upstream Tracking - The report includes tracking of raw material prices and shipping trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures within the industry [37][40] - It highlights the importance of monitoring these factors as they can significantly impact the profitability of home appliance manufacturers [37][40]

时代之浪席卷法国工业界！ 近日，拥有近百年历史的家电大厂白朗集团（Brandt）被法国法院裁定进入司法清算程序。这一宣判代表这家 一度被誉为"法国工业明珠"的企业将终止其经营活动，其在法国本土的700多名员工将面临失业。 法国经济财政部对此表示"深感悲痛"，经济部长莱斯屈尔和负责工业事务的代表马丁重申，中央和地方政府此 前已承诺投入超过1700万欧元的公共资金以挽救集团，但最终由于"其他必要参与方不愿施以援手"，导致重组 方案流产。 值得注意的是，截至目前，法国白朗集团中国官网仍在展示。 白朗破产 该集团曾宣称，其98%的厨用家电真正做到了"法国制造"而非仅仅是组装，集团首席执行官埃米利曾强调：在 法国生产，这不是成本问题，而是价值问题。 然而，近年来，白朗集团在激烈的市场竞争中陷入严重财务危机，自今年10月1日起进入破产重整程序。大型 家电产业受制于房地产市场的低迷，年度销售额持续下降。同时，该集团也面临着来自外国品牌的竞争，以及 空气炸锅等小型厨用电器深受年轻人青睐而造成的市场冲击。 虽然白朗集团在今年年初才以庆典活动迎来了创建百年，并曾获得前产业振兴部长蒙特布尔的关注与支持，但 市场变化和科技革新的浪潮 ...

Core Insights - The IFA 2026 will take place from September 5 to 9, 2026, at Messe Berlin, showcasing the latest advancements in consumer electronics and home appliances, with a focus on artificial intelligence, smart homes, green appliances, wearable devices, and IoT ecosystems [1] - The event is expected to attract over 2,000 exhibitors and 240,000 professional visitors, covering an area of 160,000 square meters, emphasizing B2B trade connections and B2C interactive experiences [1] Group 1: Key Themes - The event will focus on four core themes: "Smart Living," "Energy Efficiency," "Health Technology," and "Circular Economy," promoting technology that serves both people and the environment [1] - The Smart Home and Connected Ecosystem section will showcase whole-home smart control systems, AI-driven appliances, voice interaction devices, and cross-brand connectivity solutions, reflecting a user-centered integration trend [3] - The Sustainable Innovation Zone will highlight energy-efficient appliances, modular designs, enhanced repairability, and the use of eco-friendly materials, in response to EU energy efficiency labels and green product regulations [4] Group 2: Product Highlights - The Health and Personal Care Technology section will include smart wearable devices, home health monitoring systems, beauty instruments, and fitness health solutions, addressing the demand for proactive health management in the post-pandemic era [5] - The Mobile Technology and Digital Life area will present smartphones, laptops, audio devices, AR/VR hardware, and accessories, emphasizing performance, portability, and personalized experiences [6] - The Home Appliances and White Goods showcase will feature high-end kitchen appliances, efficient washing machines, heat pump dryers, and air purification devices, reflecting the European market's high standards for integrated functionality and energy efficiency [8] Group 3: Startup and Innovation Focus - The event will provide a dedicated platform for global tech startups, with the iZone area focusing on products surrounding the Apple ecosystem and cutting-edge iTech innovations, attracting developers and channel partners [9] Group 4: Event Logistics - The IFA 2026 is organized by GFU Consumer Electronics & Home Appliances GmbH, with booth reservations now open for Chinese consumer electronics brands, appliance manufacturers, smart hardware companies, component suppliers, and ODM/OEM service providers [10] - The event serves as a strategic platform for Chinese companies to deepen local operations in Europe and establish high-end brand images, linking innovative technology with global consumers [10]

此次会议提出优化"两新"政策实施，表明2026年将继续推进该政策，同时将在执行细节上进行调整和完 善，以提升政策效能。 2025-12-12 01:42:35 作者：狼叫兽 为刺激消费增长，2024年已安排1500亿元超长期特别国债资金支持消费品以旧换新，即启动"国补"计 划。由于成效显著，2025年投入额度提升至3000亿元，较上年翻倍，进一步扩大政策覆盖范围。 2025年12月11日至12日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开，会议对2026年经济工作作出部署。在强调坚持 内需主导、建设强大国内市场的过程中，明确提出将优化"两新"政策的实施方式。 "两新"政策指的是大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。其中，与民众生活密切相关的消费品以旧换新政 策因涉及面广、惠民性强，受到广泛关注，并被通俗称为"国补"。 政策内容也在持续拓展。2025年新增手机、平板电脑、智能手表及手环三类数码产品，同时纳入微波 炉、净水器、洗碗机和电饭煲四类家用电器，使补贴品类更加丰富，贴近居民日常生活需求。 根据商务部发布的统计数据，2025年1月至11月期间，消费品以旧换新行动带动相关商品销售额超过2.5 万亿元，惠及人数逾3.6亿人次。具体来 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国家用电器及电子产品市场深度分析及未来趋势预测报 告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国家用电器出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国家用电器进口数量为148万台，同比增长1.3%，进口金额为1.4 亿美元，同比下降7.9%，2025年10月中国家用电器出口数量为35191万台，同比下降9.2%，出口金额为 74.09亿美元，同比下降13.6%。 近一年中国家用电器进口情况统计图 ...

手上还拿着消费基金的老铁，麻烦举个手。 消息板块自2021年初见顶之后，这几年走势实在是惨不忍睹。 CPI涨幅创出近21个月来新高！ 国家统计局在昨天公布的数据显示，11月份居民消费价格指数也即CPI，同比上涨0.7%，涨幅继续扩大。而扣除了食品和能源价格的核心CPI更是连续3个月 保持在1%以上涨幅，11月份同比上涨了1.2%。不过，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）虽然环比略涨，但同比跌幅扩大，当月下降了2.2%。 总的来说，11月份在食品价格回升的拉动下，CPI涨幅创出了自2024年3月份以来的新高，居民消费持续恢复。 不过A股早盘的大消费板块看起来仍然没有什么起色，食品饮料、家用电器等板块微跌。 A股的消费行业触动很多老铁的神经，想当年，A股那几只"顶流"消费基金，我也是买过的，甚至直到现在还留着一点，好几年了，看它什么时候回本。 消费板块能否随CPI上涨，开始触底反弹？ 据12月10日酒价数据显示，53度散装飞天茅台参考批发价已经报到1500元/瓶，创下年内新低，同比跌幅约20%，较两年前跌约40%，飞天茅台单瓶的批发价 格直接跌到指导价！ 而这已经是12月份，传统的白酒消费旺季即将来临，看来今年白酒 ...

Core Insights - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market is 539.282 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 2.667 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in financing activities [1][2] - A total of 28 stocks saw their financing balances increase by over 10%, while 48 stocks experienced a decline of more than 5% [1][4] Financing Balance Overview - The total margin balance for ChiNext stocks reached 541.163 billion yuan, marking an increase of 2.683 billion yuan over the previous trading day, continuing a four-day upward trend [1] - The financing balance specifically rose to 539.282 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 2.667 billion yuan, also reflecting a four-day increase [1] - The margin trading balance for short selling (融券余额) was 1.881 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 16.42 million yuan [1] Stocks with Significant Financing Balance Increases - The stock with the highest increase in financing balance is Jiangxin Home (匠心家居), which saw a 42.54% increase, bringing its latest financing balance to 23.7837 million yuan, while its stock price rose by 3.36% [3] - Other notable stocks with significant increases include Feili Hua (菲利华) with a 29.83% increase and a financing balance of 2224.5776 million yuan, and Boying Special Welding (博盈特焊) with a 26.10% increase [3][4] - On average, stocks with over 10% increase in financing balance rose by 2.54% on the same day, with top performers including Xiaocheng Technology (晓程科技) at 13.66% [1][3] Stocks with Significant Financing Balance Decreases - A total of 492 stocks experienced a decrease in financing balance, with 48 stocks declining by more than 5% [4] - The stock with the largest decrease is Tongxing Technology (同星科技), which saw a 16.93% drop in financing balance, bringing it to 11.5867 million yuan [4][5] - Other significant decliners include Jingxue Energy (晶雪节能) and Huanle Home (欢乐家), with decreases of 15.62% and 15.48% respectively [4][5]

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices generally rose during the week, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.86% [4] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals, communications, and defense industry, while media, real estate, and beauty care sectors saw declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 39 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a total issuance of 36.589 billion units [5] - The breakdown of new funds includes 8 bond funds, 15 equity funds, 5 FOF funds, 9 mixed funds, and 2 money market funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - The performance of long-term thematic funds showed that cyclical theme funds outperformed, while consumer and pharmaceutical theme funds experienced a net value decline [6] - The net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: cyclical (2.92%), defense industry (2.49%), financial real estate (1.38%), industry rotation (1.30%), industry balance (1.15%), TMT (0.79%), new energy (-0.56%), consumer (-0.89%), and pharmaceutical (-1.56%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - There was a slight inflow of funds into equity ETFs, primarily in small and mid-cap and TMT theme ETFs, with significant inflows into Hong Kong stock ETFs [7] - The median return for equity ETFs was 1.09%, with a net inflow of 2.725 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 0.80% and a net inflow of 6.043 billion yuan [7] Fund Positioning High-Frequency Monitoring - The estimated positioning of actively managed equity funds showed a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared to the previous week [8] - Increased allocations were observed in household appliances, machinery, and electronics sectors, while reductions were noted in communications, automotive, and media sectors [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week saw the issuance of 20 new green bonds, with a total issuance scale of 12.665 billion yuan [9] - The cumulative issuance scale of the domestic green bond market reached 5.09 trillion yuan, with a total of 4,369 bonds issued [9] - The existing ESG funds in the domestic market totaled 211, with a scale of 149.605 billion yuan, and the median net value changes for various ESG fund types were 0.64% for active equity, 1.06% for passive equity index, and -0.07% for bond funds [9]

Core Viewpoint - A total of 16 companies have announced their performance forecasts for the year 2025, with 12 companies expecting profit increases and 2 companies anticipating profit declines [1] Performance Forecast Summary - **Profit Increase Companies**: - N Baiao (688796): Expected profit increase of 303.57% [1] - C Moore (688795): Expected loss reduction of 41.36% [1] - Luxshare Precision (002475): Expected profit increase of 26.09% [1] - Hongyuan (920018): Expected profit increase of 21.42% [1] - Aomei (920080): Expected profit increase of 16.44% [1] - Nant (920124): Expected profit increase of 13.02% [1] - China Uranium Industry (001280): Expected profit increase of 11.42% [1] - Taikai Ying (920020): Expected profit increase of 10.44% [1] - Danna Biotech (920009): Expected profit increase of 8.92% [1] - Xintong Electronics (001388): Expected profit increase of 5.40% [1] - Jingchuang Electric (920035): Expected profit increase of 5.00% [1] - New Henghui (301678): Expected profit increase of 4.66% [1] - Nansoft Digital (301638): Expected profit increase of 2.76% [1] - **Profit Steady and Decline Companies**: - Hai'an Group (001233): Expected steady profit with a change of 0.14% [1] - Zhongcheng Consulting (920003): Expected profit decline of -4.14% [1] - Jinhua New Materials (920015): Expected profit decline of -5.47% [1]