Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Midea Group, indicating confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth despite industry challenges [4]. Core Views - Midea Group is expected to maintain steady growth and attractive dividend yields, even as the home appliance industry faces a downturn. The company has demonstrated strong competitive advantages and a commitment to shareholder returns [4][6]. - The report highlights that Midea's revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 exceeded market expectations, with projected revenue growth of 7-9% and net profit growth of 10-15% for Q2 2025 [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of Midea's business model, particularly in the context of ongoing market adjustments and external pressures such as U.S. tariff policies [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Midea Group reported revenue of 127.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 38.0% year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2024 indicates total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.5%, and a net profit of 38.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.3% [5]. Market Position - Midea Group's A-share price as of July 1, 2025, was 72.11 yuan, with a market capitalization of 497.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company's A-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.5x for 2025, which is below its historical average, suggesting a potentially undervalued position [6]. Dividend Policy - Midea Group's dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 69% in 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% for 2025, making it attractive for income-focused investors [4][10]. Industry Outlook - The home appliance industry is anticipated to experience a gradual decline in growth rates, but Midea is expected to leverage its competitive strengths to continue growing [4]. - The report notes that Midea's industrial business, particularly in HVAC and related sectors, is showing strong growth potential, with significant opportunities in international markets [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating a potential for growth in the next 6-12 months, with a focus on specific sectors such as high-end equipment, new energy, and information technology [6][7]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares saw a trading volume of 30.73 billion yuan on July 1, with a slight increase in the index by 0.7%. Among 268 companies, 113 rose, 6 remained flat, and 149 fell [3][13]. - The newly launched North Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index has strengthened the positioning of the North Exchange as a primary platform for specialized and innovative companies, attracting new capital [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and performance indicators, particularly in light of upcoming central government meetings and mandatory mid-year earnings forecasts [6][7]. Market Review - The trading volume for North Exchange A-shares reached 30.73 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.4%, leading among various sectors [13][14]. - The top five gainers included Huawai Design (30.0%), Jinbo Biological (11.0%), and Jinhao Medical (10.6%), while the top five losers were Patel (-9.4%), Tonghui Information (-9.2%), and Guoyuan Technology (-7.5%) [23][26]. Important News - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued guidelines to support consumption and capital markets, aiming to enhance financial services and boost market sentiment [27]. - JinHao Medical announced a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan per 10 shares, while other companies like DR Tianrun Technology reported obtaining three invention patents, highlighting their innovation capabilities [29][32].

A股市场今天（7月2日）上午整体涨跌互现，主要指数波动幅度不大。 海洋经济概念股大面积涨停，成为上午A股市场表现最强的概念板块之一。 港股市场上午整体表现较佳，恒生指数盘中涨幅一度超过1%，多数时间小幅上涨。港股市场再现个股剧烈波动，领航医药生物科技盘中一度暴涨逾200%。 A股海洋经济概念掀起涨停潮 A股市场今天上午整体涨跌互现，主要指数波动幅度不大。 行业板块和赛道方面，工程机械、有色、商贸代理、船舶、钢铁、家用电器等板块涨幅居前，元器件、通信设备、半导体、软件服务等板块跌幅居前。 概念板块方面，海洋经济概念板块领涨，板块整体涨幅超过6%，深水海纳盘中"20cm"涨停，大连重工、神开股份、开创国际、亚星锚链、好当家、振华重工等多 股盘中触及涨停。 恒生指数成份股中，银河娱乐、金沙中国有限公司领涨，盘中涨幅均超过7%。信义光能、恒基地产、紫金矿业、石药集团等盘中涨幅居前。 港股市场大幅波动的个股中，领航医药生物科技大涨，盘中涨幅一度超过200%，后涨幅大幅回落。 消息面上，中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，推动海洋经济高质量发展，要更加注重创新驱动，更加注重高效协同，更加注重产业更新，更加注重人海和谐，更加 注 ...

Group 1: ESG Investment Strategy - The ESG selection strategy for the CSI 300 has shown an absolute return of 2.97% in June, with a total return of 1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.83 as of June 29 [2][3] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy also performed well, achieving a total return of 3% in June, with a Sharpe ratio of 3.15 [2][3] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Brent oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel, with supply and demand dynamics being crucial for industry profitability [10][8] - The chemical industry is anticipated to benefit from domestic economic stimulus policies, leading to structural opportunities driven by domestic demand [10][8] Group 3: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 3.30% in June, with concerns over the slowing of government subsidies and intense competition during the 618 shopping festival [13][14] - The market is expected to see a cooling in retail growth rates for home appliances starting in July, particularly due to high base effects from previous subsidies [14][16] Group 4: Zijin Mining - Zijin Mining announced the acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine for $1.2 billion, which is expected to significantly enhance its resource base in Central Asia [20][22] - The Raygorodok mine has a projected annual gold production of approximately 5.5 tons, contributing to the company's goal of reaching 100-110 tons of gold production by 2028 [23][22] Group 5: North Exchange Market - The North Exchange's index rose by 6.84%, with increased trading activity and a focus on new industries such as artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace [26][28] - The market is expected to maintain high levels of trading activity and investor interest, particularly in emerging sectors with unique business models [28][26]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 2. 融资融券数据： 当前市场融资融券余额为18384.93亿元，较上期上升0.94%，其中融资 余额18265.53亿元，融券余额119.40亿元。本期两融日均交易额为1185.69亿元，较上期上 升9.77%，其中融资日均净买入1180.65亿元，较两周前上升9.79%，融券日均净卖出5.04 亿元，较上期上升5.54%。近两周融资净买入前三的行业分别为计算机、银行和非银金融； 融券净卖出前三的行业分别为非银金融、银行和石油石化。 3. 涨跌情况： 近两周全市场上涨家数高于下跌家数，近两周涨幅前三的行业为通信、计算机 和电子，跌幅前三的行业为美容护理、石油石化和医药生物。 4. 强弱分析： 近两周全部A股强弱分析得分为5.97，沪深300强弱分析得分5.83，创业板强 弱分析得分6.28，科创板强弱分析得分6.40，处于中性区间。 测量结果：健康 诊断说明： 本周上证综指向上突破3月高点，但当下行情距牛市启 ...

Group 1 - The United States implemented a new tariff policy on June 23, imposing a 50% tariff on eight categories of steel household appliances, including refrigerators, dryers, and washing machines [1][3] - This policy is part of a series of protectionist measures aimed at creating a favorable environment for domestic industries and encouraging manufacturing to return to the U.S. [3][5] - The European Union responded swiftly by announcing a package of tariffs on $950 billion worth of U.S. products, covering various sectors such as civil aircraft, automobiles, medical devices, agricultural products, and alcoholic beverages [3][5] Group 2 - The EU's response is driven by long-standing trade imbalances and concerns over the impact of U.S. policies on EU industries and employment [5][8] - The trade conflict between the U.S. and EU is expected to disrupt global supply chains, affecting raw material supply, component production, and product sales [5][8] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to hinder global economic growth, as increased tariffs raise product prices and suppress consumer demand [5][8] Group 3 - In the short term, the trade conflict will exacerbate tensions between the U.S. and EU, leading to higher costs for businesses and consumers [8] - Long-term implications may include the EU pursuing greater strategic autonomy, reducing reliance on the U.S. market and technology, and enhancing its own defense capabilities [8]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59% on June 30, with 28 out of the 31 sectors experiencing gains, led by the defense and military industry with a rise of 4.35% and the media sector with an increase of 2.82% [2] - The non-bank financial sector, banking, and transportation sectors were the biggest losers, with declines of 0.77%, 0.34%, and 0.09% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 1.613 billion yuan, with 10 sectors seeing net inflows [2] - The defense and military sector had the highest net inflow of 3.315 billion yuan, followed by the media sector with a net inflow of 1.441 billion yuan [2] Transportation Sector Performance - The transportation sector saw a slight decline of 0.09%, with a net capital outflow of 276 million yuan [3] - Out of 125 stocks in the transportation sector, 50 stocks rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 60 stocks fell [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the transportation sector were Shentong Metro with 121.43 million yuan, Baoshui Technology with 66.98 million yuan, and China Merchants Shipping with 46.91 million yuan [3] Top Gainers in Transportation Sector - Shentong Metro had a gain of 10.06% with a turnover rate of 6.98% and a net capital inflow of 121.43 million yuan [4] - Baoshui Technology increased by 4.51% with a turnover rate of 14.25% and a net inflow of 66.98 million yuan [4] - China Merchants Shipping saw a slight increase of 0.16% with a net inflow of 46.91 million yuan [4] Top Losers in Transportation Sector - Pulutong experienced a decline of 3.39% with a net outflow of 52.30 million yuan [5] - Sanyangma fell by 1.31% with a net outflow of 41.65 million yuan [5] - China National Airlines decreased by 0.75% with a net outflow of 39.32 million yuan [5]

2025 年 6 月 30 日 总量研究 中报季将至，关注业绩线索 ——2025 年 7 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 6 月 A 股港股市场有所回暖 6月A股主要指数普遍上涨，行业端涨跌分化。受市场情绪好转等因素影响，6月 （截至26日），A股主要指数普遍出现上涨，其中创业板指涨幅最大，6月份累 计上涨了6.1%。行业端涨跌分化，通信、非银金融、银行、有色金属等行业表 现较好，消费板块表现则较差，如食品饮料、美容护理、家用电器等行业。 6月港股市场震荡上行。6月受海外扰动缓和、国内风险偏好回暖等因素影响， 港股市场整体走势震荡上行。截至2025年6月26日，恒生香港35、恒生综合指数、 恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为5.0%、4.8%、4.4%、4.4%、 3.4%。 A股观点：关注业绩主线及稳定类资产 预计指数整体将维持震荡。短期外部风险扰动最严重的时候或许已经过去，但仍 需要对特朗普后续政策的反复保持警惕。近期国内政策仍积极发力，预计后续政 策仍将持续落地。随着中美两国为"对等关税"按下 90 天"暂停键"，短期内 出口或将保持高增，预计消费仍是经济修复的重要动能之一。内外因素交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the A-share market is experiencing a recovery, with the Robot ETF Fund (159213) showing a rise of 1.39%, indicating a potential end to its two-day decline [1] - The majority of the index component stocks of the Robot ETF Fund have seen significant gains, with notable increases in defense and military stocks, such as Jingpin Special Equipment rising over 15%, and other companies like Ecovacs and Unisplendour also showing strong performance [3][4] Group 2 - The external market for wearable exoskeleton robots is projected to grow from $2.49 billion in 2025 to $30.56 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.1% [7] - The Chinese exoskeleton robot market has seen substantial growth, increasing from 0.03 million yuan in 2016 to 440 million yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 171.19%, and is expected to reach 4.2 billion yuan by 2025 [7] - The application of exoskeleton robots spans military, medical, and civilian sectors, enhancing capabilities in various fields such as rehabilitation for the disabled and elderly, as well as improving soldiers' operational efficiency [6][7] Group 3 - Human-shaped robots are anticipated to have a market potential exceeding one trillion yuan, with applications in diverse tasks such as logistics, maintenance, and elder care [9][12] - The demand for human-shaped robots is expected to reach over 100 million units in the long term, corresponding to a market space exceeding 15 trillion yuan by 2025 [12][13] - The integration of brain-machine interface technology with exoskeleton robots is seen as a significant advancement, enabling precise control and enhancing rehabilitation processes for patients [6][9]

Quantitative Factor and Model Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction 1. **Model Name**: GAN_GRU Model **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for generating realistic price-volume sequential features and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) for encoding these sequential features into predictive signals for stock selection [2][9]. **Model Construction Process**: - **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 price-volume features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate [10][13]. - Training data consists of the past 400 trading days' features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 feature matrix to predict the cumulative return over the next 20 trading days [14]. - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and standardization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels [14]. - The GRU network consists of two layers (GRU(128, 128)) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet) [18]. - **GAN Component**: - The generator (G) uses an LSTM model to preserve the sequential nature of the input features, while the discriminator (D) employs a CNN to process the two-dimensional price-volume feature "images" [29][32]. - The generator's loss function is: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability [20][21]. - The discriminator's loss function is: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data [23][25]. - Training alternates between updating the discriminator and generator parameters until convergence [26]. **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both sequential and cross-sectional price-volume features, leveraging the strengths of GANs and GRUs for stock selection [2][9][29]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU factor is derived from the GAN_GRU model's output, representing the encoded price-volume sequential features as a stock selection signal [2][9]. **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is derived from the predicted return (pRet) output of the GAN_GRU model [18]. - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, followed by standardization [18]. **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent performance in both IC and excess returns [36][40]. --- Model Backtest Results 1. **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.54% - **ICIR**: 0.89 - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83 - **Recent IC**: 8.34% - **1-Year IC Mean**: 11.09% - **Annualized Return**: 37.71% - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.95% - **IR**: 1.56 - **Max Drawdown**: 27.29% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 24.95% [36][37]. --- Factor Backtest Results 1. **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.54% - **ICIR**: 0.89 - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83 - **Recent IC**: 8.34% - **1-Year IC Mean**: 11.09% - **Annualized Return**: 37.71% - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.95% - **IR**: 1.56 - **Max Drawdown**: 27.29% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 24.95% [36][37].