Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have room for growth. It is a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [2]. - For methanol, the short - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to move within a range at a low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low prices [6]. - For rubber, it is advisable to maintain a bullish view in the medium - term. In the short - term, it is expected that the rubber price will be strong, and a bullish approach is recommended, buying on dips and exiting quickly [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong domestic supply, weak demand, and high valuation, and the weakening export expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [14]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long - term [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, the valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to follow the crude oil and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak season arrives [23][24]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and look for long - buying opportunities on dips after the peak - season downstream performance improves [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the mid - term valuation has a downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 10.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.20% decline, at 481.00 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed inventory increases in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a 2.40% decline, at 2760.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 113.00 yuan/ton, a 3.21% decline, at 3412.00 yuan/ton [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: On September 4, the 01 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 2378 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 8 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133. Domestic production has further increased, and coal prices have slightly declined. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high level, and the import pressure remains. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and the profit has continuously improved, but the traditional demand is still weak [4]. - **Urea**: On September 4, the 01 contract remained stable at 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of - 14. The enterprise profit has further declined, the supply - side production has significantly decreased, and the demand is weak. The port inventory has continued to increase [6]. - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated strongly. Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has significantly increased, and the rubber price is likely to rise. As of September 5, 2025, the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 58.70%, down 4.08 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 69.07%, down 5.5 percentage points from last week and 9.60 percentage points from the same period last year [9][11]. - **PVC**: The PVC01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4883 yuan. The cost side remained stable, the overall PVC operating rate was 76%, a 1.6% decline. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a 0.1% decline. The factory inventory was 31.2 (+0.6) million tons, and the social inventory was 89.6 (+4.4) million tons [14]. - **Styrene**: The spot price increased, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The port inventory has continued to increase significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory starts to decline [16][18]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price decreased. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The supply - side has only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level. The downstream average operating rate is 40.5%, a 0.20% increase [20]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price decreased. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21]. - **PX**: The PX11 contract fell 130 yuan to 6680 yuan. The PX load in China was 83.3%, a 1.3% decline; the Asian load was 75.6%, a 0.7% decline. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 376,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,000 tons [23]. - **PTA**: The PTA01 contract fell 76 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 72.8%, a 2.4% increase. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 29 was 2.12 million tons, a decrease of 84,000 tons [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG01 contract rose 26 yuan to 4357 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.1%, a 1% decline. The downstream load was 91%, a 0.7% increase. The port inventory was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [6]. - For methanol, supply pressure is increasing, the market is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3]. - Regarding urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic situation is one of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, although there is currently a lack of upward drivers, the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and there is support at the lower end of the valuation. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the peak season [23]. - For PTA, the supply has shifted from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the demand side is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess, and there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium - term [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.69%, at 493.20 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oils, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, at 2840.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 30.00 yuan/ton, or 0.85%, at 3512.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57%; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 132 [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic production has further increased, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Import arrivals have increased, and port inventories have accumulated to a high level [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of port MTO has continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [3]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract fell 32 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of - 14. The futures price broke through the support level on Wednesday, while the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [5]. - **Supply**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, domestic production has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, enterprise profits are still at a medium - low level [5]. - **Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventories have risen rapidly. Currently, demand is mainly concentrated in exports [5]. - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level compared to the same period last year [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [8]. - **Factor Analysis**: Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has increased, which may cause the rubber price to rise. Bulls believe that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may limit rubber production growth, the seasonal pattern usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected [8][9]. - **Industry Data**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, 1.76 percentage points lower than the previous week and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All - steel tire exports were good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories was slow to consume. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5% from the previous month. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. As of August 31, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 47.34 (- 0.36) million tons [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14880 (+ 30) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+ 0) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1840 (+ 5) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9400 (+ 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11650 (0) yuan [12]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 198 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The cost side remained stable, with the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke at 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene at 840 (0) US dollars/ton. The spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 77.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% [15]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+ 0.6), and social inventory was 89.6 million tons (+ 4.4) [15]. - **Strategy**: In the domestic situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook and poor fundamentals, it is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [17]. - **Factor Analysis**: Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The production of pure benzene has been fluctuating at a moderate level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and styrene production has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been rising [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of styrene was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7040 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a weakening of 156 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 344.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton; the upstream operating rate was 78.1%, a decrease of 0.40%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.65 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 43.84%, an increase of 0.24%; the operating rate of PS was 59.90%, an increase of 2.40%, the operating rate of EPS was 58.35%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.80%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Factor Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory has decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and the procurement of raw materials for agricultural films has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.08 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The LL1 - 5 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 1 yuan/ton [20]. - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [21]. - **Factor Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 6954 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 11 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 55 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.30 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons, and the port inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The LL - PP spread was 293 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 16 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. 3.8 Polyester 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 24 yuan to 6810 yuan, the PX CFR price fell 3 US dollars to 843 US dollars, the basis was 99 yuan (+ 1) after conversion at the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 yuan (- 4) [23]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%, and the operating rate in Asia was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. There were few changes in domestic plants [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. Some PTA plants had maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, while others were in the process of restarting or commissioning [23]. - **Import**: In August, South Korea exported 37.6 million tons of PX to China, an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to the same period last year [23]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory was 389.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 246 US dollars (- 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 94 US dollars (- 3) [23]. - **，**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA plants, with the overall operating rate at a low level. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory levels, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, providing support for the valuation at the lower end. However, due to the lack of upward drivers currently and the reduction in the amount of unexpected PTA maintenance compared to previous expectations, the PXN has limited upward momentum. The valuation is currently at a moderate level, and the terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Report Overview - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released on September 2, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in different regions showed some fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2275 to 2230, and the Northwest discounted price decreased from 2680 to 2645 [2] Core View - The trading logic is that the port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although the inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increments from Lianhong, the port will continuously form a backflow impact. Currently, the price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The backflow can resolve the port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Therefore, it is necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polyethylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 840, while the North China LL price decreased from 7270 to 7170, and the East China LL price decreased from 7400 to 7290 [6] Core View - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal chemical industries are destocking, the social inventory is flat, and the downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [6] Polypropylene (PP) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polypropylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6450 to 6580, while the East China PP price decreased from 6985 to 6845 [7] Core View - The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] PVC Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of PVC in different regions and forms showed some fluctuations. For example, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 [7] Core View - The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. The Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]