日前，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，牵动资本市场脉搏。 券商中国记者注意到，摩根大通、野村东方国际、摩根士丹利、瑞银等四大外资机构发布最新观点。四大外资 一致认为，本次中美经贸高层会谈成功超市场预期，释放积极信号，中国经济增长预期改善。 一是内需复苏主线，涉及行业中估值弹性较大的是食品饮料、业绩弹性较大的是房地产、政策弹性较大的是医 药，以及内需消费升级相关的服务消费、品质必需消费与潮玩可选消费； 二是伴随央行"促进物价合理回升"的政策表态，关注PPI修复预期带动的周期品，尤其是中国定价权更强的钢 铁、煤炭和铝等； 三是把握高景气科技领域的产业迭代趋势，关注AI、储能和各类长验证周期的题材如国产替代和商业航天 等。 同时，本周以来，多家券商发布研报看好中国科技板块，中国资产重估的逻辑仍在。此外，根据摩根士丹利最 新研报，海外投资者增配中国股票的意向也在上升。 摩根大通朱海斌：经贸会谈成果超预期，释放积极信号 摩根大通中国首席经济学家兼大中华区经济研究主管朱海斌认为，中美日内瓦经贸会谈成果超预期，释放积极 信号。与此同时，摩根大通上调了中国2025年全年GDP增速预测至4.8%。 朱海斌分析称，美中双方同 ...

Group 1 - India has proposed to impose import tariffs on certain American-made products in response to U.S. tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum products, highlighting a retaliatory trade strategy [1][2] - The proposed tariffs come at a time when India is negotiating a trade agreement with the U.S., with expectations of concessions on 90% of tariff items to avoid a 26% "reciprocal tariff" from the U.S. [2][3] - The global trade landscape is shifting, and India's strategy aims to leverage global trade rules to secure fairer treatment for its exports amid changing geopolitical alliances and supply chain adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - The recent suspension of "reciprocal" tariffs between the U.S. and China may hinder India's "China+1" strategy, which encourages companies to diversify manufacturing outside of China [3] - Experts suggest that India must urgently reduce production costs, reform logistics, and enhance regulatory predictability to maintain its competitive edge in manufacturing [3] - A well-negotiated trade agreement with the U.S. could help India retain 10% tariffs and prevent the rise of specific tariffs proposed by the Trump administration [3]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam is requesting companies and associations to provide information and data to demonstrate compliance and origin of products exported to the US [1] - The US is currently Vietnam's largest export market and a comprehensive strategic partner, while Vietnam ranks as the eighth largest trading partner of the US [1] - Vietnamese products are well-received in the US due to their quality and reasonable prices, and they do not directly compete with US-made products [1] Group 2 - The Ministry aims to gather opinions from various sectors regarding the US tariff policies, particularly from industries such as textiles, footwear, electronics, steel, aluminum, cashew nuts, and machinery [2] - There is a push for the US to open its market for high-tech products from Vietnam and to consider recognizing Vietnam's market economy status [2] - Long-term strategies include focusing on structural adjustments in companies, promoting green transformation, digitalization, innovation, and technology development [2]

Core Viewpoint - India has notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) of its proposal to impose counter-tariffs on certain products manufactured in the United States, in response to the tariffs imposed by Washington on India's steel and aluminum products [1] Group 1 - India is targeting products imported from the U.S. as a retaliatory measure against U.S. tariffs [1] - The proposed tariffs are aimed at countering the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum [1]

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-12 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 上次评级:优于大势 [Table_PicQuote] 历史收益率曲线 [Table_Trend] 涨跌幅（%） 1M 3M 12M 绝对收益 8% 1% -2% 相对收益 4% 2% -7% [Table_Market] 行业数据 成分股数量（只） 136 总市值（亿） 24568 流通市值（亿） 13349 市盈率（倍） 14.56 市净率（倍） 2.13 成分股总营收（亿） 31776 成分股总净利润（亿） 1882 成分股资产负债率（%） 50.80 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《黄金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多金价》 --20250506 《黄金：牛市未尽》 --20250428 《黄金：新世界秩序下的宠儿》 --20250421 《东北有色周报：关税反复+财政担忧+联储观 望，金价继续冲高》 --20250414 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：曾智勤 执业证书编号：S0550520110002 021-20363251 zengzq@nesc ...

Core Points - Climate information disclosure is becoming a key focus for corporate sustainability reporting, with the Ministry of Finance recently releasing the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" [1] - The draft emphasizes the need for companies to disclose greenhouse gas emissions categorized into Scope 1, 2, and 3, and to build a disclosure framework around four pillars: governance, strategy, risk and opportunity management, and metrics and targets [1][3] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The draft is the first specific standard focusing on climate issues, following the basic sustainability disclosure standards released in November 2024 [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to establish a unified sustainability disclosure standard system by 2030, with the climate standards expected to be finalized by 2027 [2] - The draft aligns closely with international standards, facilitating the integration of domestic practices with global frameworks [2] Group 2: Disclosure Requirements - Companies are required to disclose governance structures overseeing climate-related risks and opportunities, including how performance metrics are integrated into compensation policies [3] - The strategic dimension requires companies to disclose how climate-related risks and opportunities impact their strategies, financials, and resilience to climate change [3] - In terms of risk and opportunity management, companies must outline their processes for identifying, assessing, and monitoring climate-related risks and how these processes fit into their overall risk management systems [4] Group 3: Emission Accounting - The draft specifies that companies must disclose their total greenhouse gas emissions, with a focus on Scope 3 emissions, which are often the most challenging to quantify [4] - Financial institutions are particularly required to disclose information related to their financed emissions, which typically represent a significant portion of their total emissions [4] - Unlike the international GHG Protocol recommended by IFRS S2, the draft localizes the accounting standards, requiring companies to follow national carbon emission accounting standards [4] Group 4: Implementation Challenges - The climate information disclosure poses challenges for companies in measuring, analyzing, and planning their greenhouse gas emissions [6] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a gradual approach to implementing the standards, starting with qualitative disclosures if quantitative data is not available [7] - The draft suggests that companies with the capacity should actively explore pilot projects and develop feasible disclosure plans [7]

Group 1: New Stock Market Performance - In April 2025, a total of 10 new stocks were listed, with 6 on the main board and 4 on the ChiNext, raising a total of 8.269 billion yuan [4] - The average first-day increase for main board new stocks was 240.69%, while ChiNext new stocks saw an average increase of 219.73%, with no stocks experiencing a decline [4] - The average quotation inclusion rate for main board new stocks was 93.38%, and for ChiNext, it was 97.63% [4] Group 2: REITs Market Overview - As of April 30, 2025, the number of public REITs in China reached 65, with a total issuance scale of 173.026 billion yuan [5] - The weighted REITs index closed at 134.98, with a monthly return rate of 0.65% [5] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from high to low were: gold, pure bonds, US stocks, REITs, convertible bonds, A-shares, and crude oil [5] Group 3: Communication Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the communication industry saw significant growth, with 170 A-share companies achieving a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 88.3% [6] - Excluding the three major operators, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.412 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [6] - The communication sector presents structural opportunities, with the long-term logic of operators remaining valuable and certain sub-sectors showing positive growth potential [6] Group 4: Ming Tai Aluminum Industry Analysis - Ming Tai Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 32.321 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.748 billion yuan, up 29.76% [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 8.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.07%, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 21.46% [6] - The company has seen a significant increase in net profit per ton, and its product structure is continuously improving despite the cancellation of export tax rebates [6] Group 5: Hua Mao Technology Growth - Hua Mao Technology reported operating revenue of 2.213 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.67%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, up 14.64% [8] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 537 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit of 86 million yuan, up 60.34% [8] Group 6: Jian Kai Technology Transition - Jian Kai Technology's 2024 annual report showed operating revenue of 227 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.26%, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 74.22% [9] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, and a net profit of 12 million yuan, down 17.79% [9] Group 7: Kai Yin Technology Revenue Decline - Kai Yin Technology's 2024 annual report indicated operating revenue of 1.230 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.87%, while net profit increased by 22.18% to 142 million yuan [9] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 232 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.90%, and a net profit of 26 million yuan, up 15.92% [9]

关税打击制造业，加拿大失业率飙升至6.9% 金十数据5月9日讯，加拿大上个月就业人数增速不温不火，失业率飙升至去年11月的水平，这是自2017 年1月以来除疫情外的最高水平。加拿大统计局周五公布的数据显示，4月份就业岗位仅增加7400个，失 业率上升0.2个百分点，至6.9%。加拿大经济连续第三个月在就业或失业方面几乎没有变化，突显出在 贸易不确定性下招聘或裁员的放缓。关税对汽车、钢铁、铝和其他行业依赖出口的工作岗位的影响首次 变得更加明显。隔夜掉期交易员提高了对加拿大央行6月降息的押注，料降息概率略大于一半。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].