交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦炭市场开启首轮提降，焦企利润空间将进一步被压缩，生产积极性受到一定抑制，对焦煤 的采购更趋谨慎，多以严格控制库存、按需小单采购为主。钢厂方面，铁水产量虽有回升，但整体仍处 于相对低位，且成材价格表现疲软，钢厂盈利状况未有明显改善，对焦煤采购维持低库存策略，压价意 愿较强，预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳运行。 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦炭： 1、基本面：主产地煤矿复产进度持续加快， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded and stood above the 20 - day moving average. In January, production continued to rise, and inventories at home and abroad continued to accumulate, with sufficient market supply. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, showing a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The nickel - iron price rebounded, with the cost line supported and slightly shifted upward. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory increased significantly. If inventory digestion is ineffective in the future, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is positive, inventory and the disk trend are negative, and the main position is net long but with a reduction in long positions. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2] - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price increased. In the short term, the nickel - ore price was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the nickel - iron price rebounded, and the cost line was strongly supported, while the stainless - steel inventory continued to rise. The basis is positive, the inventory is neutral, and the disk trend is neutral. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On March 4th, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,410, up 1,960 from March 3rd; the LME Nickel was 17,550, up 415; the Stainless - Steel main contract was 14,220, up 35. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 137,600, up 2,050, and the cold - rolled index was 13,849, up 188 [8] - **Spot**: On March 4th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,550, up 450; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 144,100, up 450; 1 imported nickel was 137,050, up 500; nickel beans were 139,650, up 500. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi remained unchanged at 15,050, in Foshan it was 15,100, up 100, and in Hangzhou and Shanghai it remained unchanged at 15,050 and 15,100 respectively [8] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 27th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively. On March 4th, LME nickel inventory was 287,550, a decrease of 426 from March 3rd; Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 53,632, a decrease of 17; the total inventory was 341,182, a decrease of 443 [11][12] Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 27th, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons. On March 4th, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,531, unchanged from March 3rd [16][17] Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 4th, the CIF price of red clay nickel ore with a Ni1.5% grade was 74 US dollars/ wet ton, and that with a Ni0.9% grade was 31 US dollars/ wet ton, both unchanged from March 3rd. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars/ ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars/ ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton was 1,085.57 yuan/ nickel point, up 0.13, and the low - nickel wet ton was 3,750 yuan/ ton, unchanged [20] Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 14,142, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,297, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 18,022 [22] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 137,447 yuan/ ton [25]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货24390，基差-755，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨58646吨至355986吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，空翻多；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡偏强运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 | 中间价 中间价 | ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年3月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 利多：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。 年前下游补库。对美出口关税有所降低。中美关系有所 缓和。金三银四传统旺季到来。 1、基本面：ICAC：26/27全球消费2500万吨，产量2480万吨。2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预 计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存 1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口 18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。农村 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are influenced by the escalation of the Middle East Iran situation, with the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz causing a significant short - term support for polyolefin valuations. The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be broadly volatile and strong today, considering cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. However, there are concerns about oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. On the supply - demand side, downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are resuming work slowly, and the packaging film is operating at a low load with rigid demand, expected to recover quickly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector is gradually resuming work. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (+170), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 135, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 59.4 tons (- 3.3), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be broadly volatile and strong today [4]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up oil prices; bearish factors are the main logic of oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. On the supply - demand side, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north is recovering quickly but with limited increase, and the BOPP sector is recovering quickly but facing pressure from some finished - product inventories. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (+250), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 156, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.1%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 65.5 tons (- 8.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be broadly volatile and strong today [7]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up oil prices; bearish factors are the main logic of oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7220, up 170; the price of the 05 contract is 7355, up 155. The warehouse receipt is 8950, down 60; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 tons; the PE social inventory is 673 tons, up 76 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7350, up 250; the price of the 05 contract is 7506, up 283. The warehouse receipt is 20844, down 687; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 tons; the PP social inventory is 345 tons, down 47 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity showed an overall upward trend with different growth rates, and the import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity increased steadily, and the import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] - The main logic of the current market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the tight supply of US soybeans, while negative factors include high historical oil and fat prices, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oils and fats, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils and fats [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean - related supply** - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - The inventory of soybean meal is mentioned but no specific data is provided [8] - The oil mill's soybean crushing is mentioned but no specific data is provided [10] - **Palm oil supply** - On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed - related supply** - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - The inventory of rapeseed is mentioned but no specific data is provided [21] - **Total domestic oil and fat supply** - The total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - **Soybean - related demand** - The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned but no specific data is provided [12] - The apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with the main contract of urea showing a volatile and strong trend. The daily production is at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand is weak but reserve demand is good, agricultural demand has room for growth in the near future, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that urea will show a volatile trend today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea include the gradual transition of agricultural demand to the peak season and the continuous strengthening of overseas prices, while the bearish factor is the historical high of daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high. Overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak but has a recovery expectation. Compound fertilizer operating rate is rising, while melamine operating rate is falling. Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and comprehensive inventories are accumulating. The external price continues to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and export markets is widening [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is 38, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.35 million tons (+154,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to show a volatile and strong trend on the disk. With daily production at a high level year - on - year, weak industrial demand but good reserve demand, agricultural demand has room for growth in the near future. With inventory accumulation, the UR is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1880 (-10), Henan spot price is 1860 (unchanged), and FOB China price is 3327 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 05 contract is 1822 (+3), the basis is 38 (-3). UR01 price is 1788 (+4), UR05 price is 1822 (+3), and UR09 price is 1812 (+7) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 1275 (-4683), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.35 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.176 million tons, and UR port inventory is 0.174 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |

宏观数据层面，3 月 4 日公布的美国 2 月 ADP 就业数据新增 6.3 万人，显著高于市场预期 的 5 万人，创 2025 年 11 月以来最大增幅；同期 ISM 服务业 PMI 录得 56.1，同样超出预 期并创下 2022 年 7 月以来新高。强劲的经济数据进一步削弱美联储降息预期。 【策略观点】 霍尔木兹海峡接近事实封锁推升市场通胀预期，叠加美国通胀数据尚未回落，能源价格上行强 化市场对央行政策鹰派转向的担忧，推动美债收益率走高、资金流动性偏好上升。加之 3 月 4 日公布的美国 2 月 ADP 就业、ISM 服务业 PMI 两大数据均显著超出预期，进一步削弱美联储降 息预期共同对黄价形成压制。策略上谨慎看空，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 1100-1190 元/克， 沪银主力合约参考运行区间 20500-22000 元/千克。 蒋文斌 宏观金融组 从业资格号：F33048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 电话：0755-23375128 邮箱：jiangwb@wkqh.cn 贵金属日报 2026-03-05 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.22 %，报 1144.20 元/克，沪银涨 1.88 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n ⻛险提⽰：1）地缘冲突加剧风险；2）关税冲突广泛升级；3）国内增 量政策和经济修复不及预期；4）美联储货币政策大幅偏离预期 • 中信期货研究 | 晨报 2026-03-05 地缘冲突仍是短期主导，关注今⽇"两 会"经济⽬标 海外继续关注中东局势，国内关注今日"两会"政府经济工作目标的制 定。 n 海外宏观：海外消费信⼼修复、⼯业订单分化、地缘与制度⻛险升温。 2月美国谘商会消费者信心回升，显示消费韧性仍在，限制"衰退交易" 空间。12月工厂订单总量回落，但剔除运输后转为增长，非国防资本品（ 剔除飞机）继续扩张，核心资本开支保持韧性，对工业金属形成支撑。与 此同时，围绕沃什人选的政策讨论发酵，风险溢价影响美元与利率定价； 叠加特朗普强化对伊朗立场并出现以色列对伊朗空袭，中东局势升温，推 升能源与避险溢价。整体呈现"增长未失速、政策与地缘风险抬升"的格 局。 • n 国内宏观：国内政策协同强化、消费⾼频偏暖、地产边际改善，关注今 ⽇"两会"政府经济⼯作⽬标的制定。2月财政与货币投放高于季节性， 流动性环境偏稳，有利于短端利率表现。出口平稳，春节期间出行与消费 活 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Date: March 5, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle - East situation has strengthened market sentiment, and shipping companies have postponed their resumption of Red Sea routes. The container shipping index futures continued to be strong. Although the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts on container shipping supply and demand is limited, it has a greater impact on the far - month sentiment and futures market, potentially causing the index to strengthen periodically. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in mid - to late March. There are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 on rallies [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market situation: The escalation of the Middle - East situation has strengthened market sentiment, and shipping companies have postponed Red Sea resumption. The container shipping index futures continued to be strong. After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. The short - term tariff issue is unlikely to trigger exporters' rush to ship, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity in March and April remains at a high level in the same period of history, but the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to ease the shipping capacity pressure. The price increase of leading shipping companies in March may be more for price stability and difficult to implement. Geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on far - month sentiment and the futures market [7] - Operation suggestions: Pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in mid - to late March, and look for opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 on rallies [7] 2. Industry News - Overall situation: After the "Spring Festival" holiday, the Chinese export container shipping market was generally stable, and the freight rates on ocean routes showed an upward trend, driving the comprehensive index up. On February 27, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1333.11 points, up 6.5% from the previous period [8] - European routes: The eurozone's February composite PMI rose to 51.9, with the manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 50.8, hitting a 44 - month high and standing above the boom - bust line for the first time since August last year. The transportation demand remained stable compared with the pre - holiday level, and the spot market booking price increased. On February 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1420/TEU, up 4.3% from the previous period [8] - Mediterranean routes: The market situation was in line with that of European routes, and the market freight rates increased. On February 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $2305/TEU, up 5.9% from the previous period [9] - North American routes: The preliminary value of the US February composite PMI dropped to 52.3, with the preliminary values of both manufacturing and service PMIs slightly falling. Although it remained in the expansion range, the expansion speed showed signs of slowing down. The US Supreme Court ruled that the large - scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration were unconstitutional, leading to great uncertainty in global trade. The transportation market was relatively stable, and the spot market booking price continued to rise. On February 27, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $1857/FEU and $2691/FEU respectively, up 3.9% and 6.6% from the previous period [9] - Persian Gulf routes: The geopolitical tension in the region has been escalating, and the approaching "Ramadan" has pushed the spot market freight rates up significantly. On February 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Persian Gulf ports was $1327/TEU, up 35.4% from the previous period [9] - Other news: Trump made statements on Iran, the US continued military operations in Iran, and there were statements about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. High - profile institutions made assessments on the impact of the Iran situation on energy prices. The US Supreme Court ruled that certain tariffs were illegal, and relevant responses were made by different parties [9] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes (basic ports) on March 2, 2026, was 1463.4, down 110.11 (-7.0%) from February 23, 2026. The index for US West routes (basic ports) was 1045.08, down 66.93 (-6.0%) from February 23, 2026 [11] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures on March 4, including contract information such as EC2604 - EC2612, with details on the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes multiple shipping - related data charts, such as the container ship capacity in Europe, the global container ship order backlog, the Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [16][18]