1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, with the steel price oscillating at a low level due to the weak and stable industrial pattern [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with increased supply pressure and weakening demand. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season but is supported by costs, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable industrial pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The inventory increase has widened, production has risen to a relatively high level, and supply pressure has increased. However, short - process steel mills are expected to cut production as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - Rebar demand is declining weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators decreasing month - on - month and at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The demand pattern remains weak and continues to drag down steel prices [3] - The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. The positive factor is cost support, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3]

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：继上周五宏观氛围走弱，贵金属有色普跌以 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the short - term, the upward driving force of the stock market is still weak, and the capital side is difficult to form a consensus. However, in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the continuous inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, and the logic of the stock index's upward movement in the long - run is relatively reliable [5] Group 3: Summary of Key Points by Category 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the valuation has increased rapidly, the stock index is oscillating and consolidating, and the demand is rising [1] 2. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "strong - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2565.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan from the previous day. With the stabilization of gold and commodity prices, the resource cycle sector rebounded, and the risk preference of the stock market was restored. This rebound is a technical correction of the previous over - decline caused by the weakening of risk preference due to the sharp correction in the commodity market. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is still shrinking, indicating that the upward driving force of the stock market is still weak. Due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators and the "weak reality" pressure, combined with the fact that the increase in the stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation side, the willingness of the capital side to take profits and leave the market has increased, and it is difficult for the capital side to form a consensus in the short term [5]

1、美国预计将启动一项 120 亿美元矿产储备计划，范围预计涵盖稀土、铜和锂等关键矿产； 2、SpaceX 收购 xAI，预计估值将达 1.25 万亿美元；浙大发布全球首个峰值速度达到 10m/s 的全尺寸 人形机器人； 3、2026 年中央一号文件：促进人工智能与农业发展相结合；上海：大力培育发展脑机接口、第四代半 导体等未来产业； 文字早评 2026/02/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 4、黄金/白银现货最高反弹 6.24%/11%；日经 225 指数涨近 4%，创历史新高；韩国综合指数涨近 7%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.63%/1.37%/3.96%/4.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.32%/0.51%/6.16%/5.23%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.44%/2.85%/11.41%/8.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.77%/0.47%/1.63%/2.59%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of Huishang Futures Company focuses on strengthening party construction and anti-corruption efforts for 2026, aiming to provide a solid political foundation and discipline guarantee for the company's high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting was attended by party committee members, leadership, and management personnel, emphasizing the importance of political construction and the implementation of Xi Jinping's thoughts [1][2]. - The meeting reviewed the achievements of party building in 2025 and outlined tasks for 2026, highlighting the significance of the year as a critical period for the futures industry under new policies [3][4]. Group 2: Key Requirements - Strengthen political construction by continuously learning and implementing Xi Jinping's thoughts, enhancing the political capabilities of party members to ensure effective execution of central decisions [4]. - Deepen ideological construction to solidify the ideological front, cultivate a distinctive corporate culture, and foster collective effort [4]. - Solidify organizational construction by promoting standardized party branch development, enhancing education and management of party members, and improving grassroots effectiveness [4]. - Optimize the talent system by accurately recruiting high-end talent, innovating training models, and refining compensation and assessment mechanisms to build a professional team [4]. - Establish a strong disciplinary defense by enforcing party governance responsibilities, deepening work style construction, and strengthening supervision to create a positive political environment [4]. Group 3: Future Directions - Huishang Futures Company aims to leverage the meeting as an opportunity to deepen strict party governance, transforming party advantages into developmental strengths and integrity into determination for tackling challenges [5].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5]. - The recent "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices and stronger basis, which has boosted bullish confidence in the futures market. It's predicted that domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is on the strong side [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The digestion of bearish sentiment has led to the stabilization of methanol's oscillation [1]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply, especially the supply disruption in Iran, is the key support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The reduction of domestic port inventory has driven the recovery of spot prices, strengthened the basis, and enhanced bullish confidence in the futures market [5].

金融研究 2026年2月4日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：2 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 1.29%，报收 点；深成指 3 4067.74 | | --- | --- | | | 上涨 2.19%，报收 14127.11 点；创业板指上涨 1.86%，报收 3324.89 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， | | | 报收 1471.07 点。市场成交 25,656 亿元，较前日减少 410 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+5.63%)，国 | | | 防军工(+4.42%)，机械设备(+3.98%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.85%)，非银金融(+0.17%)，煤炭(+0.38%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,852/91/529。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 105、-89、-176、159 亿元，分别变动+489、+67、-398、 | | 股指期货 | -159 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 26.1、4.7、7.11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Five Integration" model in Yantai, Shandong, is effectively enhancing the pig farming industry through a collaborative "insurance + futures" project, providing robust financial support and risk management for local farmers [1][6]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project, supported by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, involves Huishang Futures and China People's Property Insurance Company, covering approximately 46,000 pigs with a total project amount exceeding 73.52 million yuan and a compensation amount of 12.4354 million yuan, achieving a comprehensive compensation rate of 303.31% [1][6]. - In 2024, the project aims to protect over 35,400 tons of pigs across 11 counties in Yantai, with a project amount of 634 million yuan and expected compensation of 16.9203 million yuan [1][6]. Group 2: Mechanism and Support - The project integrates policy guidance, risk protection, financial tools, production-sales connection, and funding support, effectively stabilizing pig prices and allowing farmers to move away from reactive pricing strategies [2][7]. - The successful implementation of the project in 2025 is backed by significant funding from the Dalian Commodity Exchange (1.025 million yuan) and local government support (2.0499 million yuan), creating a collaborative mechanism that benefits farmers [3][8]. Group 3: Compensation and Impact - The project features a rapid compensation mechanism, with 12.4354 million yuan in claims promptly reaching 20 farming households, enhancing farmers' confidence and enabling them to expand their operations [4][8]. - The project not only mitigates losses from price fluctuations but also encourages farmers to upgrade their facilities, contributing to the high-quality development of the industry [4][8]. Group 4: Future Directions - The successful conclusion of this project sets a benchmark for financial support practices in agriculture, with plans to extend the "Five Integration" model to cover more agricultural products, thereby safeguarding farmers' financial interests [5][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel market is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - In February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in the stainless - steel industry, and the nickel - iron expectation provides a bottom support [2][6]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the futures market shows a strong performance [2][12]. - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to the situation of the Beijing meeting [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 134,830, down 5,180 from T - 1, down 11,280 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585, up 165 from T - 1, down 955 from T - 5, etc [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 663,364, down 144,776 from T - 1, up 139,968 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 377,013, down 247,788 from T - 1, down 102,979 from T - 5, etc [6]. Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" [6]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [7]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [9]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0; the trend intensity of stainless - steel is 0 [11]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 148,100, up 15,660 from T - 1, down 31,500 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the 2605 contract was 619,542, down 24,772 from T - 1, up 237,229 from T - 5, etc [12]. Macro and Industry News - Shanghai will deepen the construction of an international economic center, carry out technological transformation and upgrading in industries such as petrochemical and steel, and support the development of new energy vehicle and other industries [13][14]. - The "250,000 - ton/year electrolyte solvent project" of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has been fully put into production [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,815 yuan/ton, up 20 from T - 1, down 45 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 50,000 yuan/ton, up 2,950 from T - 1, down 1,900 from T - 5 [16]. Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6,233 newly - added on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household - use photovoltaics) in China, including 36 wind - power projects, 6,190 photovoltaic projects, and 7 biomass - power generation projects [15][16]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 [18].

宏观策略（股指期货） 国资委：央企要着眼开辟增长"第二曲线" 日度报告——综合晨报 美国政府结束部分停摆状态，股指盘中 V 型 反转 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-04 受消息面扰动，股指盘中 V 型反转。在宏观空窗期、且叠加贵 金属风波宣泄后，股市以题材、概念为主的结构牛模式再度回 归。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国政府结束部分停摆状态 综 合 黄金大幅反弹收复前日失地，市场恐慌式下跌阶段结束，在触 碰到 60 日均线后亦有抄底资金介入，短期金价步入震荡阶段。 美联储官员陆续发表讲话，米兰表示还需降 100bp。 晨 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 米兰称今年需降息逾一个百分点 美军击落伊朗无人机，地缘局势持续高温，市场风险偏好走低， 美元指数震荡。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：1 月份棕榈油进口量激增 51% 印度 1 月棕榈油进口预计大幅增加，1 月马棕高频数据延续减产 预测 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存大幅下降 油价反弹，美伊摩擦事件导致风险溢价略回升。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 吉大港彻底停摆 弱现实与地缘扰动因素交织，预计短期 04 合约波动幅度仍将较 大建 ...