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光大期货农产品日报-20250612
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 06:50
Research Views Corn - The corn main contract increased in price with reduced positions on Wednesday. The July contract encountered resistance at the previous high. Spot prices in the Northeast continued to rise by 20 - 40 yuan/ton in the past two days. Deep - processing enterprises in the production area and North China also raised purchase prices. Shandong's deep - processing arrivals remained low, and prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hebei's prices went up by 15 - 30 yuan/ton, while Henan's were basically stable. Prices in the sales area rose widely, but high - price corn had limited transactions, and wheat substitution continued. Technically, short - position holders in the near - month contract reduced their positions, leading to a rapid increase in futures prices. The July contract might face a phased adjustment due to profit - taking [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans declined on Wednesday. Market participants focused on the favorable weather in the US. The USDA's May estimate of the US 2024/25 soybean ending stocks was 3.51 billion bushels, and for 2025/26 it was 2.98 billion bushels. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks were estimated at 1.2454 billion tons. Domestically, protein meal continued to increase with more positions. There were differences between long and short positions. The operation suggestion was to hold long spreads for soybean meal 91 and 15 contracts and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil dropped to a two - week low on Wednesday, affected by weak international oil prices and increased May - end inventory. Malaysian palm oil production in May was 177 million tons, 5% higher than expected. High - frequency data showed that exports from June 1 - 10 increased by 8.1% - 32.7% month - on - month, while production decreased by 17.24%. In Canada, canola prices rose due to dry weather, but upcoming precipitation was beneficial for crop growth. International crude oil prices increased by 4%. Domestically, oils were weak, with palm oil falling below 8000 yuan. The operation suggestion was short - term participation and buying September and selling January for soybean oil and palm oil [1][2]. Eggs - The main egg 2508 contract fluctuated at a low level on Wednesday, rising 0.06% to 3515 yuan/500 kilograms, while the 2509 contract continued to decline, falling 0.47%. Spot prices decreased. Terminal demand was weak, and supply was expected to increase before August. It was recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in culling intention and feed raw material prices [2]. Pigs - The pig 9 - month contract fluctuated and formed a doji on Wednesday. Spot prices were stable. Due to insufficient terminal demand and farmers' resistance to selling, the market was in a supply - demand game. Technically, it was recommended to focus on the 13500 - yuan support level of the 9 - month contract and maintain a short - term long mindset [2]. Market Information - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% after the release of good CPI data [3]. - China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the leaders' phone call and Geneva talks [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 10, 2025 decreased by 17.24% [3]. - EU and UK's 2025/26 rapeseed production was estimated to remain at 20.4 million tons, but there was a drought risk in Poland [3]. - Indonesia was expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovery and stable international demand [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - Included spreads of contracts like corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific spread data was provided [5][6][8] Contract Basis - Included basis of contracts such as corn, corn starch, etc., but no specific basis data was provided [13][14][18]
大豆贴水上涨,豆粕盘面领涨
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:50
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp [4][5][6][7][8][9][11] - **Oscillation on the strong side**: Corn and starch [5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Livestock, cotton, sugar, log [6][9][11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: With the increase in soybean premium and the rise in the futures market leading the spot market, the basis weakens. It is expected that before the weather speculation, US soybeans will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Under the pressure of increasing domestic supply, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures market, and the basis will continue to be weak. The futures market of soybean meal will move within a range following US soybeans [1][2][4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment has weakened. In the medium - term, driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds, the oils and fats market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support [4]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price remains strong, while the futures market rises first and then falls. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations. The continuous tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction, but continuous sharp increases are unlikely, and attention should be paid to potential negative factors such as import auctions [4][5]. - **Livestock**: In the short - term, the spot price of livestock is weak due to the off - season demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure will continue to increase, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The near - term market is under pressure, while the far - term market may improve due to expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the impact of commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is significant. The downward trend may continue. Although the futures market may temporarily stabilize and rebound slightly with the improvement of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to the performance after the futures market reaches the pressure level [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of raw materials is weak, and the rise of the futures market is blocked. Attention should be paid to the support level of the futures market after the price of butadiene stabilizes. The futures market of synthetic rubber is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it will be weak with oscillations. Although the current low inventory may support the near - term contracts, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price in the long - term [9]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force; in the short - term, the weakening of the external market leads to a decline in valuation, and the sugar price is weak with oscillations [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market operates flatly and is expected to oscillate. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the correction of the valuation of Russian needles may support the futures market [11]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market corrects. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, and the volatility increases [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Outlook** - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment is weakening. Due to the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade negotiations and the good growth of US soybeans, the US soybean and soybean oil futures markets show different trends. Domestically, the cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is expected to rise. For palm oil, the production and export in May in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the inventory was slightly lower than expected. The export in early June is expected to increase, and the short - term production pressure may decrease marginally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level, and the import volume may gradually decrease in the future [4]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, but there is a trend of increasing drought in the quarterly outlook. The premium of South American soybeans is rising, and the average daily export volume in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the price of US soybeans will oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the transaction volume of spot and basis has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of the spot price. The profit of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to rise seasonally, putting pressure on the basis. The downstream inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the downstream is becoming more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The inventory of breeding sows has increased year - on - year, indicating that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [1][4]. - **Corn and Starch**: Affected by the start of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan, the market sentiment is bullish. The continuous tightening of imported grains confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. However, the arrival of new wheat has reduced the demand for corn, and the futures market has fallen due to profit - taking by long - positions. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations [4][5]. - **Livestock**: After the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the state will conduct a central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage, which boosts market sentiment. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are still loose. In the short - term, the slaughter weight of livestock decreases, and the supply of large pigs increases. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to April 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the supply of livestock will increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the production capacity is still at a high level, and the motivation for capacity reduction is insufficient. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The macro - sentiment is strong, and the rubber price rebounds but is blocked near the pressure level. The implementation of zero - tariff policies for African products may have an impact on the market, but it needs further observation. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material price has rebounded recently. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the inventory problem has not been significantly improved. The downward trend may continue [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of butadiene is weak, which drags down the futures market. Although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, the overall decline was small. The fundamentals have not changed much. The purchase of butadiene is expected to provide short - term support, and the futures market is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the expectation of tight supply, the cotton price rebounds. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the production may increase if there is no extreme weather. The demand side has weakened recently, and the inventory is decreasing faster than before, which may support the price in the short - term. In the long - term, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price [9]. - **Sugar**: The market is trading in advance the expectation of a loose global sugar market supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to have good production. Although the production data in the first half of May in Brazil decreased year - on - year, the overall optimistic expectation remains unchanged. In China, the production of the 24/25 crushing season has ended, with a high sales rate and low inventory, but there is pressure from subsequent arrivals. The sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and weak with oscillations in the short - term [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market moves horizontally, and the near - term contracts are weak. The supply - demand situation shows that the warehouse receipts are decreasing, the supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and there are news of strikes and price - holding by pulp mills. The previous rebound of the futures market was mainly due to the correction of the valuation of Russian needles, and now it is approaching the end of the correction. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Log**: As the delivery of the LG2507 contract approaches, the game between long and short positions intensifies, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak. Fundamentally, the supply of logs is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure [12]. **Variety Data Monitoring** The document lists the data monitoring sections for various products such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, livestock, rubber, cotton, sugar, paper pulp, and log, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.
农产品日报:供应预期增加,糖价弱势震荡-20250612
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:12
农产品日报 | 2025-06-12 供应预期增加,糖价弱势震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘棉花2509合约13540元/吨,较前一日变动+20元/吨,幅度+0.15%。现货方面,3128B棉新疆到 厂价14702元/吨,较前一日变动+58元/吨,现货基差CF09+1162,较前一日变动+38;3128B棉全国均价14784元/吨, 较前一日变动+41元/吨,现货基差CF09+1244,较前一日变动+21。 近期市场资讯,据CAI公布的数据统计显示,截至2025年6月8日当周,印度棉花周度上市量2.1万吨,同比下滑47%; 印度2024/25年度的棉花累计上市量471.46万吨,同比下滑7%。CAI累计上市量达24/25年度预测平衡表产量(495 万吨)的95%,同比快3%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。宏观方面,中美贸易谈判释放积极信号,国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过关税不确定 性仍强,需关注中美最终谈判结果和关税具体落地情况。国际方面,当前美棉播种进度持续偏慢,支撑棉价,不 过主产区近期降雨偏多,旱情较前期持续改善,其他国家供应端天气的叙事性目前也不足,国际棉价短期预计延 续震荡 ...
玉米生猪鸡蛋早盘提示-20250612
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:10
Group 1: Corn Report Industry Investment Rating - Low long [1] Core View - Short - term: The bullish sentiment in the spot market is rising, and the market is operating strongly. Medium - term: The supply pattern in China is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. However, the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat and the increase in wheat substitution limit the upside space. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution expectations may limit the price upside, and China's corn pricing logic remains import substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Overnight, the main contract of CBOT corn futures rose and then fell, with a daily decline of 0.06%. Overnight, the domestic corn futures fluctuated narrowly, and the 2507 contract closed at 2378 yuan/ton with a change of 0% [1]. Important Information - Yesterday, the upward trend of corn spot prices continued. The mainstream purchase price in Northeast China was 2217 yuan/ton, stable compared with the previous day; the mainstream average purchase price in North China was 2445 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day with a narrowing increase. The prices at north - south ports also continued to rise. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2290 - 2325 yuan/ton, up 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. As of June 11, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 lots, totaling 216,495 lots. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton. Feed enterprises will increase the wheat substitution ratio from 5% - 10% in Q1 to 25% - 30% in Q2. On June 11, the planned sales volume of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auction was 56,000 tons, all of which were sold. The planned quantity of the corn purchase - sale two - way transaction of China Grain Reserves Beijing Company was 19,000 tons, and the transaction quantity was 8,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 43% [1]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range - bound operation; Medium - term: Maintain a low - long thinking; Short - term: Expect to reach 2400 yuan, and then the expectation turns into pressure. The upper pressure of the 2507 contract is 2390 - 2400 yuan, and that of the 2509 contract is 2420 yuan. Currently, the pressure is effective, and the market starts to organize and repair [1]. Group 2: Live Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating - Range [3] Core View - Short - term: Before the weight pressure is relieved, it is difficult for pig prices to rise, and they may continue to fluctuate weakly. Medium - term: There is still an expectation of increased pig supply, and whether there will be a seasonal upward trend from July to September depends on whether the weight reduction can be completed in June. Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, live pig futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.26% to close at 13,600 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.11% to close at 13,325 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the national average live pig price was 14.04 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. This morning, pig prices were weak in the north and stable in the south. In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, flat month - on - month and up 1.3% year - on - year. At the end of April, the inventory of medium and large pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On June 11, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.05 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day. On June 5, the average weekly slaughter weight of live pigs was 125.84 kg, down 0.05 kg from the previous week with a significantly narrowing week - on - week decline. On June 11, the live pig futures warehouse receipts did not change, with a cumulative total of 525 lots [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: High short; Medium - term: Range; Short - term: Fluctuate and organize, test the support effect. The short - term support of the 2509 contract is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,700 - 13,800 yuan. The lower support of the 2511 contract is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,400 - 13,500 yuan [3]. Group 3: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating - High short [3] Core View - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and downstream purchases are based on demand, so the short - term egg price is mainly weak and stable. Medium - term: The number of newly - laid hens is increasing, and the theoretical inventory of laying hens is still increasing, combined with the seasonal decline expectation during the plum - rain season, so the near - month futures contracts are still bearish. However, after the spot price remains low from June to July, the concentrated large - scale culling by farmers may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak season, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, egg futures showed mixed trends. The JD2507 contract fell 0.35% to close at 2825 yuan/500 kg, and the JD2508 contract rose 0.14% to close at 3515 yuan/500 kg [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the spot price was mainly weak and stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.66 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The spot price of Guantao eggs remained the same as the previous day at 2.56 yuan/jin. On the 11th, the average inventory in the production link was 0.99 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day. On the 11th, the average price of old hens was 4.51 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of June 5, the weekly culling age of old hens was 515 days, 6 days less than the previous week. In May, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in June is 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45% [3]. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was recommended to pay attention to the band short - selling opportunity after the 2507 contract was under pressure. This week, if the 2800 support is effective, the previous short positions can consider partial profit - taking. Currently, it is recommended to take partial profit and wait and see. If the spot price further weakens, the 07 contract still has some room to squeeze the premium. The 08/09 contracts test the lower support, with the 08 contract being relatively strong and the 09/10 contracts being relatively weak. You can also wait for the band low - long opportunity of the 8/9 contracts after the premium repair is completed [3][4].
国投期货农产品日报-20250611
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 11:35
| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆仍在进行移仓,价格在横盘调整。河南省首批最低收购价托市小麦收购库点正式启动运行,政策端给 粮价托底。东北东部降水量偏大的问题。进口大豆方面中期会受天气驱动,天气会成为影响价格的主要因素, 今年美国大豆平衡表同比偏紧,所以今年要密切 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品-20250611
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:16
2025年06月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油:产地压力分歧较大,震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油:驱动暂时不强,区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕:中美会谈希望美豆微涨,连粕偏强震荡 | 4 | | 豆一:移仓换月、周边市场偏强,盘面反弹 | 4 | | 玉米:震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖:偏弱运行 | 8 | | 棉花:继续受市场情绪影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋:梅雨季利空释放,等待淘鸡印证 | 11 | | 生猪:降重初启动,等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生:关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油:产地压力分歧较大,震荡磨底 豆油:驱动暂时不强,区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘) 8,116 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 (夜盘) 8,086 | 涨跌幅 -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
软商品日报:需求相对疲软,白糖短线承压-20250611
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:52
商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号:F0289189 投资咨询证号:Z0011152 联系电话:0571-28132619 邮箱:zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 需求相对疲软,白糖短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep:ortDate] 2025-06-11 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖:由于糖料种植的经济效益显著,加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持,农民的种植积极性有所提升,导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而,广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响,从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加,食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定,进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级: 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花:新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定,棉农的种植积极性较高, 种植面积略有增加;而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素,种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间,主要产区 ...
泛欧交易所9月期小麦期货因全球供应充裕而跌破每吨200欧元的关口。
news flash· 2025-06-10 13:44
关注全球粮食市场动态 +订阅 泛欧交易所9月期小麦期货因全球供应充裕而跌破每吨200欧元的关口。 ...
市场变化有限,盘面继续偏强运行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 13:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures market continued to strengthen, mainly driven by macro - factors. The rapeseed meal futures market also rebounded, mainly influenced by soybean meal. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed a generally strong trend [4]. - The fundamentals of US old - crop soybeans are still favorable, while the new - crop sowing progress has slowed but remains at a relatively high level. Brazil's soybean selling progress is slow, and its exports are expected to increase. Argentina's domestic soybean crushing may slow down [5]. - The domestic spot market is becoming more abundant, with increasing soybean oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The near - term demand improvement is limited, but there may be support in the long - term due to relatively tight supply [7]. - The macro - situation, especially the Sino - US negotiations in the UK, is the main driver of the market. Future negotiation results may have a significant impact on the market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The external market continued to fluctuate, with limited overall changes. The domestic soybean meal futures market strengthened, and the rapeseed meal futures market rebounded. The inter - monthly spreads of both showed a strong trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **US**: As of the week ending June 5th, the good - to - excellent rate of US new - crop soybeans was 68%. The old - crop export inspection volume was 547,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The USDA - reported soybean crushing volume in April was 5.508 million tons, a 2.03% month - on - month decrease. The new - crop sowing progress has slowed [5]. - **Brazil**: The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has accelerated but remains at a low level in the same period of history. The recent soybean crushing volume has decreased, and exports are expected to increase [5]. - **Argentina**: The growth rate of domestic soybean crushing may slow down [5]. - **Domestic**: As of June 6th, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%. The soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, a 4.7% increase from the previous week and a 24.7% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons, a 28.36% increase from the previous week and a 57% decrease year - on - year. The rapeseed meal demand has weakened, and the supply pressure remains [7]. 3.3 Macro - situation - The market's focus is on the Sino - US negotiations in the UK. Although little information has been released, the market is optimistic due to pre - meeting positive signals. The macro - situation has become the main driver of the market, and the negotiation results may have a significant impact [8]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures market is strengthening, mainly driven by the macro - situation. The US soybean futures market may face downward pressure. The import cost of soybeans from Brazil is expected to have limited downward movement. The rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the M11 - 1 spread. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9].
【期货热点追踪】印度大量采购棕榈油!低库存下的抢购潮能持续多久? 棕榈油还能做多吗?
news flash· 2025-06-10 11:40
期货热点追踪 印度大量采购棕榈油!低库存下的抢购潮能持续多久?棕榈油还能做多吗? 相关链接 ...