春节假期落幕，A股市场即将迎来节后交易窗口。但在2026年春节假期（2月15日-2月23日）期间，全球资本市场并未休憩。在地缘政治博弈、货币政策 预期与产业技术变革的多重交织下，港股、美股、大宗商品市场均出现显著异动，为节后A股投资布局提供了重要参考。 港股先抑后扬，科技成最大亮点 作为A股节后行情的重要风向标，港股市场在春节期间经历了"先抑后扬"的波动轨迹。恒生指数区间累计上涨1.94%，恒生中国企业指数上涨1.82%，恒生 科技指数微涨0.47%。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ［区间首日］2026-02-15 | | | | | [区间尾日] 2026-02-23 | | | | [单位] % | | | 1 | HXC.GI | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | -0.5530 | | 2 | HSI.HI | 恒生指数 | 1.9377 | | 3 | HSCEI.HI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 1.8230 | | ব | HSTECH.HI | 恒生科技 | 0.4651 | | 5 | : DJI.GI | ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong performance on February 23, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.53% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.34%, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [2][3] - There was a clear divergence in sector performance, with technology and semiconductor stocks generally rising, while the commodity sector, particularly gold and oil stocks, showed remarkable strength, leading the market [3][4] - Gold stocks such as Tongguan Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Datang Gold all surged over 6%, while oil stocks like China Petroleum and CNOOC also saw significant gains [3][4] Group 2 - The recent surge in the commodity sector is supported by rising international commodity prices, with Comex gold futures increasing by 1.66% from February 16 to 20, and Brent crude oil futures rising by 5.62% during the same period [4] - The volatility in commodity-related stocks during the Spring Festival is closely linked to recent developments in international geopolitics, particularly the tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have historically led to better performance in oil prices [5] - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of the Hong Kong market may serve as a reference for the upcoming A-share market, as there is a close correlation in capital flow and market sentiment between the two [6][7] Group 3 - Analysts expect that the market environment post-Spring Festival will be more favorable for the bulls, with a focus on technology stocks, driven by positive macroeconomic changes and improved capital conditions [7][8] - Historical data indicates that small-cap growth stocks typically outperform after the Spring Festival, although this year may see a simultaneous rise in large-cap growth due to strong industry trends [8]

笔者明确表示，尽管2月2日A股市场大跌，释放了一些短期风险，但当前的市场整体风格偏向防 御，资金从高波动、高估值的科技板块流向股息率高、现金流稳定的传统板块，也就是许多投资者眼中 的"老登"股。 当前市场震荡不断，与全球政治军事和经济的不确定性密切相关，虽然全球半导体周期处在复苏通 道，一些半导体公司去年业绩也相当不错，比如三星、英伟达等，但复苏力度和持续性目前尚难说乐 观，毕竟美国的政策不确定性太大，美国对委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛等国家和地区的政治主张，以及对伊朗 等中东地区的政治军事主张，再加上俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争也在持续，这个世界充满巨大的不确定性， 这会导致整个半导体板块整体估值承压。而在这样的大背景下，寒武纪作为半导体巨头，可能会受到冲 击。 2月3日，市场明星"寒王"（寒武纪，688256）股价突然跳水：截止笔者落笔之时，寒武纪股价猛跌 至1070元，跌幅超过13%。 此前一日，笔者才撰文表示，投资者如果此时抄底，可能会面临较大风险。一语成谶。 即便如此，也只能说它的发展目前比较顺利，开始到了收获果实的季节，但离投资者期望的目标， 应该还有相当长的一段距离，未来会如何，还充满着相当大的不确定性。而在一些 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 市场消息：阿斯麦(ASML.O)揭示重大突破，2030年前芯片产量或提升50%。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights four major signals that are expected to support the market as it opens for the Year of the Horse, including continuous policy support, strong consumer recovery, clear industry trends, and favorable external market conditions [4][6][9] - Policy measures are focused on equipment upgrades, consumer goods exchange programs, and significant support for new infrastructure, digital economy, and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to boost economic recovery [4] - Consumer spending has shown remarkable resilience, with record box office revenues during the Spring Festival, a doubling in travel bookings, and a nearly 500% increase in duty-free shopping in Hainan, alongside over 20% growth in dining and accommodation transactions [4] Group 2 - The article notes that the global market has been performing well, with significant gains in indices such as the Hang Seng Index and the Nikkei 225, which rose over 4%, creating a positive environment for the A-share market [6][7] - Commodity markets have also seen increases, with LME copper up 4%, London silver up 3%, and Brent crude oil rising 2.3%, providing support for cyclical sectors [7] Group 3 - The investment strategy for the Year of the Horse emphasizes a cautious approach, focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad market gains, with a prediction of a stable opening and active sector performance [9][10] - Four main investment themes are identified: the AI industry chain, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, consumer recovery sectors, and cyclical resources, with AI being the strongest focus due to its recent performance [10][11][12] - The article advises against high-risk strategies, recommending a focus on core stocks within the identified themes and careful monitoring of key indicators such as trading volume and foreign capital inflows [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that global stock markets showed strong performance during the Spring Festival, with no significant risk events, and current market sentiment remains high, suggesting that A-shares are likely to enter a new upward phase post-holiday [1] Industry Allocation - The industry allocation continues to focus on a dual mainline strategy of "Technology + Resource Products" [1] - The technology mainline centers on AI, humanoid robots (core stocks), new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The resource products mainline focuses on precious metals (core stocks), oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals (core stocks) [1] Key Sectors to Watch - Key sectors to pay attention to include: - Semiconductors - AI (optical communication, liquid cooling, electronic fabrics, high-end copper foil, etc.) - Machinery - Non-ferrous metals - Oil and petrochemicals - Basic chemicals - Power equipment (energy storage, ultra-high voltage, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries, etc.) - Innovative pharmaceuticals [1]

债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 春节后如何"抄作业"？——解析春晚亮点、AI 疑虑、关税和地缘风波 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 大类资产层面，美股止跌回升，黄金、石油强劲反弹。美国最高法院裁定关键关税措施无效， 显著提振全球风险偏好，推动美股反弹、韩股领涨；美伊等地缘局势紧张与政策转向预期推动 黄金与原油等大宗商品价格显著上涨。中国股市层面，春节期间，富时中国 A50 指数期货录得 上涨，而港股恒生科技指数走低。或受美联储偏鹰派纪要及互联网巨头"红包大战"影响，恒 生科技指数整体走低，但 AI、机器人等主题概念股逆市走高。期间，富时中国 A50 指数期货走 高，或意味着全球资本对中国权益市场节后行情保持乐观。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Summary2] 大类资产：美股止跌回升，黄金 ...

（原标题：美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货齐跌 特朗普关税不确定性席卷市场） 1. 2月23日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，纳指期货现跌0.66%，标普500指数期 货跌0.46%，道指期货跌0.49%。 被美国最高法院裁定"非法"的关税完结在即! 15%全球新税无缝接棒。美国海关与边境保护局(CBP)表 示，将于周二美国东部时间凌晨12:01停止征收依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)实施的美国政府对 等关税举措——此举距美国最高法院宣告这些关税为"非法"性质征收已过去三天多。该政府机构在其货 物系统消息服务(CSMS)向托运人发布的消息中称，将自美东时间周二起停用与美国总统特朗普此前 IEEPA相关行政命令有关的所有关税政策代码。尽管在最高法院关税裁决公布之后，美国总统特朗普告 诉记者，美国政府不久后将在《1974年贸易法》第122条款下对全球征收15%的关税，但尚不清楚美国 政府是否需要退还已经征收的关税款项。 存储芯片巨头SK海力士：将扩大AI存储芯片产能以应对需求激增。在股价过去一年飙升逾四倍、创下 盈利纪录之际，SK海力士母公司SK集团董事长崔泰源承诺将显著扩大AI存储芯片产能， ...

Group 1: Macro Economy - The U.S. economy is projected to maintain a nominal growth rate of approximately 5% in 2025, with inflation contributing more than actual output growth, mirroring the 2024 landscape [3][13] - Capital expenditures by companies pursuing "super intelligence" are expected to strongly drive economic activity, supported by high-income asset holders and an aging population sustaining service-oriented consumer spending [3][13] - Corporate earnings are experiencing double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, a steady but unexciting growth rate that has been fully anticipated by investors [4][14] Group 2: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain inactive throughout the first half of 2026, indicating a balanced economic state that does not require urgent adjustments [5][15] - Despite the resilience of the job market and inflation hovering above 2.5%, the Fed's stance reflects a clear "wait-and-see" approach [5][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index is experiencing unprecedented stagnation, with over 40% of trading days in the past two months hovering around 6900 points, a level first reached on October 28, 2025 [2][12] - Approximately 60% of individual stocks have outperformed the S&P 500, indicating a healthy market breadth, although historically, such a pattern does not typically accompany significant index gains [7][16] - The equal-weighted S&P 500 has risen by 6.4% this year, while the "Magnificent 7" tech giants have collectively declined by 5% [16][18] Group 4: Diversification and Investment Strategies - Diversification is currently providing excess returns for investors as the S&P 500 seeks direction [18] - The narrow trading range is seen as beneficial, weakening the conviction of both bulls and bears, prompting a reassessment of assumptions [18] Group 5: Key Catalysts - Nvidia's earnings report, being the last major tech earnings release of the quarter, could serve as a catalyst for market direction, potentially acting as a "clearinghouse" for market sentiment [18]