Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convertible Bond Random Forest Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Utilizes the Random Forest machine learning method to identify convertible bonds with potential for excess returns by leveraging decision trees[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Data preprocessing and feature engineering to prepare convertible bond datasets 2. Training a Random Forest model with historical data to identify patterns of excess return potential 3. Selecting bonds with the highest predicted scores for portfolio construction 4. Weekly rebalancing of the portfolio based on updated predictions[17] - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance in generating excess returns, indicating high predictive accuracy[16] 2. Model Name: Multi-Dimensional Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines macro, meso, micro, and derivative signals to create a four-dimensional non-linear timing model for market positioning[18][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Macro signals: Derived from liquidity, interest rates, credit, economic growth, and exchange rates 2. Meso signals: Based on industry-level business cycle indicators 3. Micro signals: Captures structural risks using valuation, risk premium, volatility, and liquidity factors 4. Derivative signals: Generated from the basis of stock index futures 5. Aggregation: Signals are synthesized into a composite timing signal[18][19][24] - **Model Evaluation**: Effective in identifying market trends and providing actionable signals, with the latest signal indicating a bullish stance[19][24] 3. Model Name: Industry Rotation Strategy 2.0 - **Model Construction Idea**: Constructs an industry rotation strategy based on economic quadrants and multi-dimensional industry style factors[69] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define economic quadrants using corporate earnings and credit conditions 2. Develop industry style factors such as expected business climate, earnings surprises, momentum, valuation bubbles, and inflation beta 3. Test factor effectiveness within each quadrant 4. Allocate to high-expected-return industries based on factor signals[69][71] - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong adaptability to the A-share market, with annualized excess returns of 9.44% (non-exclusion version) and 10.14% (double-exclusion version)[71] 4. Model Name: Genetic Programming Index Enhancement Models - **Model Construction Idea**: Uses genetic programming to discover and optimize stock selection factors for index enhancement strategies[88][93][97] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Stock pools: Defined for CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI All Share indices 2. Training: Genetic programming generates initial factor populations and iteratively evolves them through multiple generations 3. Factor selection: Top-performing factors are combined into a composite score 4. Portfolio construction: Selects top 10% of stocks within each industry based on scores, with weekly rebalancing[88][93][97][102] - **Model Evaluation**: - CSI 300: Annualized excess return of 17.91%, Sharpe ratio of 1.05[91] - CSI 500: Annualized excess return of 11.78%, Sharpe ratio of 0.85[95] - CSI 1000: Annualized excess return of 17.97%, Sharpe ratio of 0.93[98] - CSI All Share: Annualized excess return of 24.84%, Sharpe ratio of 1.33[103] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Convertible Bond Random Forest Strategy - Weekly excess return: 0.64%[16] 2. Multi-Dimensional Timing Model - Latest composite signal: Bullish (1)[19][24] 3. Industry Rotation Strategy 2.0 - Annualized excess return (non-exclusion version): 9.44% - Annualized excess return (double-exclusion version): 10.14%[71] 4. Genetic Programming Index Enhancement Models - CSI 300: - Annualized excess return: 17.91% - Sharpe ratio: 1.05[91] - CSI 500: - Annualized excess return: 11.78% - Sharpe ratio: 0.85[95] - CSI 1000: - Annualized excess return: 17.97% - Sharpe ratio: 0.93[98] - CSI All Share: - Annualized excess return: 24.84% - Sharpe ratio: 1.33[103] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Industry Business Climate Index 2.0 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks industry fundamentals by analyzing revenue, pricing, and cost dynamics[27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Analyze industry revenue and cost structures 2. Calculate daily market-cap-weighted industry indices 3. Aggregate indices into a composite business climate index[27][30] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates predictive power for A-share earnings expansion cycles[28] 2. Factor Name: Barra CNE6 Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates market performance using 9 primary and 20 secondary style factors, including size, volatility, momentum, quality, value, and growth[45] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate factor returns for each style factor 2. Aggregate factor performance to assess market trends[45][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: Size factor performed well during the week, while volatility factor underperformed[46] 3. Factor Name: Industry Rotation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures industry rotation dynamics using factors like expected business climate, earnings surprises, momentum, and valuation bubbles[69] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define and calculate individual factors 2. Test factor effectiveness within economic quadrants 3. Combine factors for industry allocation[69] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong historical performance, with factors like expected business climate and momentum showing significant returns[57][59] --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Industry Business Climate Index 2.0 - Current value: 0.913 - Excluding financials: 1.288[28] 2. Barra CNE6 Style Factors - Size factor: Strong performance during the week[46] 3. Industry Rotation Factors - Historical annualized returns: - Expected business climate: 0.40% - Momentum: -0.95% - Valuation beta: 2.37%[57]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - No clear core view presented in the provided content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking of Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,316 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session was 209,306 yuan/ton with a - 0.11% decrease;豆油's day - session was 8,328 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase, and night - session was 8,322 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease;菜油's day - session was 10,068 yuan/ton with a 0.84% increase, and night - session was 10,073 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase. The Malaysian palm oil (12/2) was 4,424 ringgit/ton with a 0.43% increase, and CBOT soybean oil was 50.59 cents/pound with a - 1.06% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For palm oil, the previous trading volume was 554,657 lots with a decrease of 73,092 lots, and open interest was 411,814 lots with a decrease of 11,365 lots; for soybean oil, trading volume was 331,651 lots with a decrease of 17,302 lots, and open interest was 571,426 lots with a decrease of 3,418 lots; for rapeseed oil, trading volume was 312,127 lots with an increase of 45,203 lots, and open interest was 352,429 lots with an increase of 26,198 lots [2] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,300 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,710 yuan/ton with an 80 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 10,110 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,100 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar decrease [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 16 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 382 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 42 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed and palm oil futures was 752 yuan/ton; between soybean and palm oil was - 988 yuan/ton. Palm oil 1 - 5 spread was 202 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 276 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 500 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - There was a phone call between Xi Jinping and former US President Donald Trump [3] - Malaysia's ITS palm oil export volume from September 1 - 20 was 1,010,032 tons [4] 3. Oil Mill Operation - In the 38th week (September 13 - 19), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%, 30,100 tons higher than expected. It is expected that in the 39th week (September 20 - 26), the operating rate will slightly decrease, with an expected crushing volume of 2.3878 million tons and an operating rate of 66.65% [5] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil was - 1, and that of soybean oil was - 1 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: International and domestic sugar markets face multiple bearish factors. International factors include a significant narrowing of the sugar production gap in Brazil's 2025/26 season, Indonesia's suspension of sugar imports, and India's approval of sugar exports. Domestic factors include high sugar imports in August, the transition between old and new seasons, and a slowdown in domestic sugar sales. The future trend of domestic sugar prices depends on the performance of the international raw sugar market [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices, but the impact on softwood pulp is limited. The demand for pulp is supported by the peak season of finished paper, and the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated supply pressure. However, the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, and the upward potential of pulp prices is still uncertain [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper has remained stable recently, and the high basis provides some support for the futures price. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not clear. The price increase of wood pulp provides some cost support, but the upward space may be limited before the supply further decreases [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is under pressure from the steady listing of cotton in the Southern Hemisphere, the US tariff policy, and the progress of cotton harvesting in the US. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and India's extension of the import tariff exemption provide some support. The domestic cotton market is in a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and the futures price may be weak [8]. - **Apples**: The futures price has fluctuated recently. The increase in the supply of early - maturing apples and the decline in prices have weakened the support for the futures price. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's harvest, and the futures price is expected to remain within a range [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube index has been weakly oscillating. The increase in warehouse receipts has increased the delivery pressure, but the inventory has been gradually depleted, and the spot price has rebounded seasonally. The futures price of the 2601 contract has fluctuated, and investors can consider corresponding trading strategies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8400 - 8500. For Jujube 2601, take profit on long positions at high prices, with a support range of 11000 - 11500 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, be cautiously bearish, with a support range of 5430 - 5450 and a pressure range of 5560 - 5580. For Pulp 2511, adopt a range - shorting strategy, with a support range of 4900 - 4950 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, be bearish on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4350 - 4400. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14200 - 14300 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8329 | 33 | 0.40 | | Jujube 2601 | 11155 | 155 | 1.41 | | Sugar 2601 | 5540 | 17 | 0.31 | | Pulp 2511 | 4990 | - 72 | - 1.42 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4224 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13860 | - 140 | - 1.00 | [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5830 | - 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 400 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15283 | - 36 | 278 | [28] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the basis of each variety are mentioned, including Apple 1 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, Sugar main - contract basis, Pulp main - contract basis, and Cotton 1 - month basis [37][40][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the inter - month spreads of each variety are mentioned, such as Apple 10 - 1 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, Sugar 9 - 1 spread, Cotton 9 - 1 spread, and Cotton 1 - 5 spread [45][47][50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8430 | - 231 | 2457 | | Sugar | 10364 | - 265 | - 3138 | | Pulp | 244641 | 0 | - 240079 | | Cotton | 4232 | - 206 | - 2706 | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | The price of early - maturing apples has declined steadily, and the difference in acceptance value continues. The short - term futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Both the domestic and international fundamentals are bearish, and the supply pressure has increased | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The market is in a long - short game, and the short - term futures price fluctuates and consolidates | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamental upward driving force is not strong | Sell a put option with a strike price of 4900 and a call option with a strike price of 5300 | [52] 3.6.2 Option Data of Each Variety - **Apple Option Data**: Figures related to apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [53]. - **Sugar Option Data**: Figures related to sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility are provided [55]. - **Cotton Option Data**: Figures related to cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apples - **Production Area Weather**: Figures related to the minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Yantai, Shandong, and Xianyang, Shaanxi, are provided [64]. - **Export Situation**: Figures related to the monthly export volume of apples are provided [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: Figures related to China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as the weekly storage inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, are provided [67]. 3.7.2 Jujubes Figures related to the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei provinces, as well as the daily arrival volume of jujubes in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, are provided [70]. 3.7.3 Sugar Figures related to the national industrial sugar inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures difference of sugar are provided [72][74][76]. 3.7.4 Pulp Figures related to the inventory of pulp in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood pulp inventory days, the weekly production of various types of paper, the import volume of broadleaf and softwood pulp, and the market prices of various types of paper are provided [80][82][86]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper Figures related to the capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper are provided [88]. 3.7.6 Cotton Figures related to the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, monthly import volume, clothing retail sales, export volume, and the production and profit data of the textile industry are provided [90][91][98].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 政策面扰动，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报9.15-9.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性逢低买盘支撑，市场回归震荡等 待加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持 低位支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消 息面影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差78，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 基本面不同，油脂震荡整理 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | 电话：13609351809 | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 7 | | 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 22 星期一 | 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡整理，全周豆油 Y2601 合约上涨 0.07%， 以 8328 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2601 合约上涨 0.22%以 9316 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2601 合约上涨 2.14%，以 10068 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 7 榈油方面：近期，马来西亚多地遭遇连续强降雨，引发严重 洪灾，其中沙巴州受灾最为严重。沙巴州棕榈油产量约占马来西 亚总产量 1/5，降雨过多会影响新鲜果串收割和运输，或导致马 棕油产量下降 1～2 个百分点。棕榈油下跌 0.47%。 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 22 星期一 豆油方面：美国大豆对华出口量接近 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Different sectors in the market show diverse trends. Some sectors like precious metals and certain agricultural products have medium - term positive outlooks but face short - term adjustments, while others such as crude oil and some industrial metals have bearish or uncertain trends in the short to medium term [1][2] - The overall market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent futures declined 0.33%. After the peak consumption season, there is a growing supply - demand surplus. The mid - term trend is bearish. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations, and a strategy of combining short positions and call options is recommended [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weakening, and supply is abundant, but Russian attacks support its valuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited supply - demand drivers [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Supply decreased slightly, and demand increased marginally. The price is supported, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [23] - **Urea**: Domestic supply is abundant, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the progress of rigid demand [24] - **Methanol**: Short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. High - inventory pressure exists, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation. The mid - term trend is positive, but short - term adjustments are possible [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices are supported by domestic spot supply - demand, but consumption indicators are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate between 79,000 - 80,500 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream开工率 is rising seasonally, but inventory has not turned around. The resistance level is at the March high [4] - **Zinc**: The export window is approaching, and domestic inventory is under pressure. The short - term trend is bearish [7] - **Lead**: The fundamentals are improving, and there is room for upward movement in the short term [8] - **Nickel**: Affected by the earthquake in Indonesia, the short - term trend is weak [9] - **Tin**: After price adjustments, inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see or use a "buy low, sell high" strategy [10] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: Both are in a strong - oscillation trend, and prices are likely to rise due to the "anti - involution" background [18][19] - **Ferro - alloys**: - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both have a high probability of strong - oscillation due to sufficient carbon supply, high iron - water production, and pre - holiday restocking [16][17] - **Non - Ferrous Metals Related**: - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is supported at around 2,830 yuan [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the decline of Shanghai aluminum but may show stronger resilience [5] Building Materials - **Steel**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a strong - oscillation. Demand for rebar is improving, while that for hot - rolled coil is falling. Attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions [14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term trend is high - level oscillation. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by high iron - water production [15] - **Glass**: It has a high - supply and low - demand pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment [33] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, and the short - term price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. The long - term trend is bearish due to over - supply [35] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is increasing, but demand is improving, and the market is slowly recovering [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may decline. Caustic soda shows regional differences and is in an oscillation pattern [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term market is weak, but there is a possibility of downstream restocking after PX's negative factors are released [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is at the bottom of the range. Supply pressure is expected but currently low [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing - margin recovery [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The short - term trend is oscillatory. Long - term, soybean meal can be cautiously bullish [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Short - term, pay attention to trade - relation expectations. Long - term, they can be bought at low prices [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic supply bottleneck supports prices. Attention should be paid to the opening rate and trade - relation expectations [38] - **Corn**: After the new grain is on the market, the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the futures are bearish [41] - **Eggs**: The seasonal peak is ending. Consider long - positions in the far - month contract [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is bearish. Wait and see after the price break - down [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the domestic market is in an oscillation [44] - **Apples**: The short - term price may decline due to lack of supply - side drivers [45] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [46] Others - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see or use an oscillation strategy [47] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillatory one. Allocate more to technology - growth sectors and consider cyclical and consumer sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures prices are falling, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48] - **Shipping**: The freight index is under pressure in the short term. The impact of the Poland - Belarus border closure on shipping demand needs to be monitored [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Category 1. Power Coal - Recorded the daily basis and spread data of power coal from September 15 - 19, 2025, with the basis gradually increasing from -115.4 yuan/ton to -97.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 remaining at 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - Presented the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 15 - 19, 2025, including the basis of fuel oil and INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - Showed the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of chemical products. The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 15 - 19, 2025 were given, as well as the inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for multiple chemicals and the inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. [9][11] 3. Black Metals - Displayed the inter - period spreads and inter - commodity spreads of black metals. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided, along with the inter - commodity spreads like the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc. from September 15 - 19, 2025 [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Recorded the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 15 - 19, 2025 [28] (2) London Market - Presented the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 19, 2025 [34] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of agricultural products. The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from September 15 - 19, 2025 were shown, as well as the inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products and the inter - commodity spreads such as the ratio of soybeans to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - Recorded the basis and inter - period spreads of stock index futures. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 15 - 19, 2025 were presented, along with the inter - period spreads of the next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter for different stock indices [51]

Group 1: China-Cambodia Relations - The "Diamond Six Corners" cooperation framework is enhancing China-Cambodia relations and serves as a model for China-ASEAN cooperation [1][8] - Cambodia views China as a reliable partner and aims to deepen cooperation across various fields to build a Cambodia-China community of shared destiny [1][6] - The two countries oppose unilateral bullying by certain nations and are committed to accelerating the implementation of cooperation projects [1][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Cambodia is one of the most open countries in ASEAN for foreign investment, allowing 100% ownership by foreign investors, making it an ideal destination for Chinese enterprises [2][3] - In the first eight months of this year, Cambodia approved 491 new investment projects, a 71% increase year-on-year, with a total investment amount of $7.2 billion, up 50% [3] - China remains the largest source of investment in Cambodia, accounting for 52.82% of total investments [3] Group 3: Economic Strategies - Cambodia's "Pentagon Strategy" aims for the country to become a high-income nation by 2050, with a target of 7% annual economic growth and reducing the poverty rate to below 10% [2][3] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a lifeline for Cambodia's development, providing essential infrastructure and resources for economic growth [6][8] Group 4: Trade Dynamics - The China-Cambodia Free Trade Agreement has led to significant trade growth, with bilateral trade expected to reach $17.834 billion in 2024, a 20.3% increase [10][12] - Cambodia's exports to China include 16 agricultural products, with a total import value of $9.8 billion in the first quarter of this year, reflecting a 12.2% increase [10][11] Group 5: Infrastructure Development - The construction of the Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville Expressway and the Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone are key projects enhancing Cambodia's infrastructure and economic competitiveness [7][13] - The Sihanoukville Port is being developed as a significant logistics hub, with plans to improve its capacity and efficiency to support regional trade [14][15]

文字早评 2025/09/22 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、9 月 19 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深 入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。 2、央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局负责人将于 9 月 22 日下午 3 点召开新闻发布会，介绍"十四 五"时期金融业发展成就; 3、据报道，OpenAI 算力告急，计划五年内斥资 1000 亿美元租赁备用服务器； 4、苹果已通知两家供应商，将 iPhone 17 的日产量至少提升 30%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.18%/-0.33%/-0.83%/-1.37%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.16%/-0.91%/-2.60%/-4.86%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.13%/-1.27%/-3.33%/-6.17%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.12%/0.13%/0.19%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，资金高低切换，快速轮动，市场风险偏好有所 降低。叠加市场成交量的萎缩，短期指数面临 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell 21 to close at 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose 20 to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose 6 to close at 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose 211 to close at 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%; CBOT US soybean oil's main continuous contract fell 1.53 to close at 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; ICE rapeseed's active contract fell 18.6 to close at 618.7 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.92% [4]. - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, first rising then falling. India's strong imports in August and heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas, which affected production and led to a weakening of Malaysian palm oil production on a month - on - month basis, limited the price decline. However, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybean oil dragged down the palm oil trend. Rapeseed oil was strong due to expected low supply in the context of China - Canada trade and continued inventory reduction in China [4][7]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week. The dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices weakened. In terms of fundamentals, heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas affected production and logistics, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of September decreased on a month - on - month basis, limiting price declines. But the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dragged down US soybean oil. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - CBOT soybean oil's main continuous contract fell from 52.12 cents/pound to 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell from 4,445 ringgit/ton to 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose from 9,296 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose from 8,322 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose from 9,857 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. Spot prices also showed different trends [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, with India's strong imports and production problems in Malaysia limiting price declines, while the US biodiesel policy uncertainty and the decline of US soybean oil dragging it down. Rapeseed oil was strong due to supply concerns [7]. - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased on a month - on - month basis. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 showed mixed trends. India's palm oil imports in August reached a high level, and the total import of edible vegetable oil also increased [8][9]. - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of three major oils in key regions in China increased slightly compared to last week and significantly compared to the same period last year. As of September 19, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of palm oil decreased [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Heavy rainfall in Sabah, Malaysia, caused floods and the cancellation of a state - level celebration. Edible oil prices, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025, and the supply - demand gap will continue in 2026 [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, inventory, and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia's palm oil, and the commercial inventory of three major oils in China [12][13][14]