Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a long-term bullish trend, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks anticipated to enter a "super long bull" phase, driven by improving liquidity and fundamental factors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2024, the Hong Kong stock market has gradually rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rising approximately 50% over the past 20 months [1]. - As of September 4, 2025, the Hang Seng Index has been fluctuating around the 25,000-point mark, drawing significant market attention regarding its future direction [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Economic Factors - The liquidity environment in Hong Kong, which has been tightening since June 2025, is expected to improve, with the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate moving away from the 7.85 weak-side guarantee range [1]. - The interest rate spread between the USD SOFR and the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has decreased to 0.36% as of August 28, 2025, indicating a return to a normal historical range [1]. Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - Since July 2025, earnings forecasts for Hong Kong stocks have been continuously revised downwards, with the expected year-on-year growth rate for the Hang Seng Index's EPS dropping from 6.7% in early July to 2.35% by August 31, 2025 [2]. - Key sectors such as materials and healthcare have seen significant upward revisions in earnings expectations, particularly following Alibaba's mid-year earnings report, which alleviated some pressure on internet giants [2]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The expectation of a long-term bull market in Chinese stocks is reinforced by the strengthening of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, supported by a positive feedback loop between the stock market, the economy, and policy expectations [3]. - The shift of social wealth from safe-haven assets to the stock market is a critical variable for the mid-term market outlook, with policies encouraging long-term capital inflows into the market [3]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, with short-term momentum driven by the revaluation of the Hang Seng Tech Index and global capital allocation needs [5]. - Specific investment strategies include focusing on technology stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, with an emphasis on performance as a key factor [8][9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, ratings include: "Weakly Bullish" (Urea), "Bullish within a Range" (Crude Oil, Asphalt, High - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, PX, PTA, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Methanol, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda, Styrene), and "Weakly Bearish" (Crude Oil, PP, LLDPE, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda) [4][8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][17][20][21][23][24][25][26][28][29][30][32][33][34] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the meeting on September 7, which will exacerbate supply pressure and make the oversupply situation in the global crude oil market in Q4 2025 more severe. The price of oil is expected to be weak. The decline in raw material prices has dragged down the chemical industry. The weak pattern of olefins will continue. The implementation of measures such as "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" by Chinese leading petrochemical enterprises may weaken the upcoming anti - involution efforts in the petrochemical industry. Investors are advised to approach oil and chemical investments with a range - bound mindset and wait for the implementation of specific anti - involution policies in the domestic petrochemical industry [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced. OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the September 7 meeting, and the US has threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia. The supply pressure is increasing, and the oil price is expected to be weak [2][8] - **Asphalt**: The upward trend has paused. The market is focusing on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price is fluctuating. The market is concerned about negative factors, but geopolitical premiums have increased. The increase in warehouse receipts limits price increases [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low valuation [12] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the price is fluctuating. Inner Mongolia's market sentiment is good, but port inventories have increased. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - term, there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - term [24][25] - **Urea**: The market stalemate continues and is expected to strengthen. The market is waiting for the Indian tender information. The supply is expected to decrease, and autumn demand is expected to pick up [25][26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a game between low - inventory support and divergent expectations. The commodity sentiment is cold, and the polyester sales are falling. There is pressure on future supply [17][18] - **PX**: The sales of polyester downstream are poor, and sellers are under pressure to lower prices. The macro - financial market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and PX lacks positive support [13] - **PTA**: It is oscillating to find support, with cost and sentiment determining the direction. The commodity market sentiment is poor, and polyester sales are flat. There is support at the bottom, but processing fees may be compressed [13] - **Short - Fiber**: Sales are mediocre, and the sustainability of the peak season is questionable. The upstream cost is poor, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [20][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: The upstream cost is poor, and its own driving force is weak. It follows the cost fluctuations of raw materials [21] - **PP**: The oil price has fallen, and the support from maintenance is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [29][30] - **Propylene (PL)**: It fluctuates with PP in the short - term. The downstream cost pressure is increasing, and the price is mainly adjusted within a narrow range [30] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The oil price has decreased, and it fluctuates weakly. The oil price is under pressure, and the actual impact of domestic measures to address overcapacity is limited. The fundamentals are under pressure [28] - **Pure Benzene**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The import volume is increasing, and the demand of downstream products has not improved significantly [14][15][16] - **Styrene**: Short - sellers have reduced their positions, and the market has rebounded. The inventory is at a high level, and the demand of downstream products is poor. There is support at a certain price level, but there is a risk of further decline in valuation [16][17] - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses its performance, and it operates weakly. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The cost has decreased, and the export expectation is under pressure [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has temporarily reached a peak, and the market is cautiously bearish. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Considering the expected alumina production in the far - term, the downward space is limited [33][34] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in spreads [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on basis and warehouse receipts for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided, along with their changes [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spread data, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, showing the changes in spreads [38] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - The report mentions monitoring of basis and spreads for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented [39][52][64] 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 3, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of change. For example, the energy index increased by 0.16% on the day, 1.59% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.39% in the past month, and decreased by 0.59% since the beginning of the year [281][282][284]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trading environment has deteriorated, and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has further increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold. Precious metals are expected to show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][20]. - The steel industry's policy expectations remain positive, and the pre - National Day rigid demand restocking expectation can support the double - coking market. However, factors such as the increase in coking coal inventory, high hot metal production, and the expectation of coke price cuts will put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - The SC crude oil night session fell 1.67%. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about supply disruptions. The future trend depends on OPEC's production increase [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: Federal Reserve's Waller stated that the Fed should cut interest rates at the next meeting and may implement multiple rate cuts, with the pace depending on data performance [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that US fiber optic producers and exporters' trade - mode change for exporting relevant single - mode fibers to China constitutes an evasion of anti - dumping measures. Starting from September 4, 2025, the current anti - dumping tax rates for non - dispersion - shifted single - mode fibers imported from the US will be applied to relevant cut - off wavelength - shifted single - mode fibers [7]. - **Industry News**: FTSE Russell announced quarterly review changes to indices such as the FTSE China 50 on September 3, to take effect after the close on September 19. The FTSE China A50 Index will include BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and remove China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, Guodian NARI, and Wanhua Chemical [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.56%, the US dollar index increased by 0.38%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.07%, London gold spot increased by 2.34%, London silver increased by 1.04%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.77%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.45%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 2.07%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 3.16%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 0.45%, and CBOT wheat decreased by 2.42%. CBOT corn remained unchanged [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The US major indices rose. The previous trading day saw a correction in stock index futures, with the defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.40 trillion yuan. The A - share market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom". The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, with more technology - growth components, are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 indices, with more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive. The stock index has risen significantly since July, showing short - term adjustment signs but with a high probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend [11][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.755%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The market is concerned about the large debt scales of Japan and the US, and the US bond yield fluctuates. Although the economic sentiment level continues to expand, the real estate market is still in adjustment. The bond futures prices have stabilized, and attention should be paid to the impact of the equity market on the bond market sentiment [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 1.67% at night. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts affects oil demand. The US crude oil inventory has decreased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.38% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefin plant operating rate increased. The coastal methanol inventory is at a relatively high level, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. It is expected to be short - term bullish [15][16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the supply is expected to increase periodically. The demand side is in the off - season, and the consumption stimulus policy provides some support. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The spot market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the stabilization of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The supply - demand repair is ongoing, and the market focuses on the supply - side contraction. The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals, especially gold and silver, are strong. The decrease in US job vacancies, Trump's attempt to interfere with the Federal Reserve, and the expectation of an interest rate cut are all beneficial to precious metals. The long - term driving force for gold remains supported, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and home - appliance industries have different trends, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21][22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by sentiment, with high volatility. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The inventory has decreased slightly. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, but there is still room for price increase if the inventory is depleted [24]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The iron ore price is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the future [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The rebar performs weaker than hot - rolled coils. The short - term market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures were weak at night. The policy expectation is positive, but factors such as inventory and price cuts put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the reduction in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oil futures were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August, while exports increased. The market fundamentals have limited changes, and the oil market is expected to continue oscillating [30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has entered the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories. However, the import and new - season sugar supply may put pressure on prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the international market and show a weak - oscillatory trend [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the market focus is shifting to the new - cotton purchase. The Xinjiang cotton production is high, and attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton. The cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated and fell 3.04%. The short - term market is expected to be supported by the stabilization of the US - bound shipping market and the MSC's National Day suspension plan. In the medium term, it may return to the game of off - season freight rates. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays on shipping companies' capacity regulation [33][34].

| 浮法平板玻璃(4.8/5mm) | 直 | 1190.8 | -25.4 | -2.1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 七、农产品(主要用于加工) | | | | | | 稻米(粳稻米) | 直 | 4037.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 小麦(国标三等) | 를 | 2420.7 | -4.9 | -0.2 | | 玉米(黄玉米二等) | 直 | 2300.9 | -16.8 | -0.7 | | 棉花(皮棉,白棉三级) | 度 | 14756.3 | 141.9 | 1.0 | | 生猪(外三元) | 千克 | 13.7 | -0.1 | -0.7 | | 大豆(黄豆) | 度 | 4422.7 | -20.4 | -0.5 | | (%3% (粗蛋白含量 = 43%) | 世 | 3051.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | | 花生(油料花生米) | 世 | 7564.3 | -2.4 | 0.0 | | 八、农业生产资料 | | | | | | 尿素(中小颗粒) | 臣 | 1759.9 | -6.3 | -0.4 | | 复合肥(硫酸钾复合肥,氮磷钾含 ...

/生物制造产业社群/ 让上下游聚在一起, 未来食农、绿色化工、大健康、美妆个护 等产业同行❤️↓ 王慧杰副市长在讲话中指出，合成生物学是"第三次生物技术革命"核心，更是绍兴培育新质生产力、推动高质量发展的重要方向。绍兴市委、市政府将 其列为战略性新兴产业重点推进。近年来， 全市依托生物医药与化工产业基础，通过出台各类政策、设立各类基金超百亿元 ，培育发展了一大批高能 级创新平台，构建起"政策引领+资本赋能"支撑体系。 作为浙江震元深耕合成生物领域的核心项目，震元生物上虞产业化基地于2023年2月开工建设， 此次投产标志着企业在培育合成生物新质生产力上迈出 关键一步 。 党委书记、董事长吴海明介绍，项目依托国内顶尖科研资源，运用先进合成生物与发酵工程技术， 建成全国首个千吨级组氨酸生物合成产业化装置 ， 开发左旋多巴绿色新工艺，L-茶氨酸正在推进新食品原料申请，累计申请国内外发明专利22项，获授权12项，科技成果登记4项。项目为浙江省（第一 批）示范性重大产业项目、入选国家发展改革委第一批47个"绿色低碳先进技术示范项目"（浙江仅3个，绍兴唯一）、获浙江省中国特色现代企业高质 量发展"价值创造"典型案例。 此外 ...

鹿山新材盘中涨停，已连收3个涨停板，截至9:25，该股报28.17元，换手率2.21%，成交量322.68万股， 成交金额9089.90万元，连续涨停期间，该股累计上涨33.13%，累计换手率为16.72%。最新A股总市值 达41.12亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计，两融数据来看，该股最新（9月3日）两融余额为1.28亿元，其中，融资余额1.28 亿元，较前一个交易日减少174.87万元，环比下降1.35%，近3日累计增加341.57万元，环比增长 2.74%。 龙虎榜数据显示，该股因连续三个交易日内，涨幅偏离值累计达20%、日涨幅偏离值达7%上榜龙虎榜1 次，买卖居前营业部中，营业部席位合计净买入927.41万元。 机构评级来看，近10日共有1家机构给予该股买入评级，9月2日东北证券发布研报预计公司目标价为 31.60元。 8月30日公司发布的半年报数据显示，上半年公司共实现营业总收入7.41亿元，同比下降33.27%，实现 净利润0.16亿元，同比下降48.40%。（数据宝） 近日该股表现 | 日期 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 换手率（%） | 主力资金净流入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★ [1] Core Views - The oil market supply and demand have been basically balanced since the third quarter, but the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production increase in September and weaker demand after the peak season, providing a bearish guidance for oil prices [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, while low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and FU has received a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US may affect Venezuelan oil shipments. The inventories of asphalt have continued to decline, and the short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - After the end of the gas off-season, LPG shows certain resilience. The import cost increase and domestic demand rebound support the price, and the short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract rising 0.57% intraday. The net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options are at a low level, and oil prices are still sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iranian oil sales on Tuesday [2] - Consider the opportunity to short on rallies when the SC11 contract rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel driven by this round of geopolitical fluctuations, and use out-of-the-money call options for protection [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The inventories of Singapore and Fujairah have both increased month-on-month [3] - The third batch of quotas has been issued much later than market expectations. As the utilization rate increases, the supply pressure of LU has eased, providing certain support for prices. The FU warehouse receipts decreased by 11,280 tons today, and the geopolitical conflicts in high-sulfur resource supply countries have given FU a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] Asphalt - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US is intensifying, and it is necessary to track and observe whether it will affect Venezuelan oil shipments [4] - The latest data shows that both factory and social inventories have continued to decline, meeting the previous expectation of marginal tightening of supply and demand. The short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the 10 contract is strongly supported at 3,500 yuan/ton [4] - For the spread strategy, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the cracking spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [4] LPG - LPG prices have remained stable in September. After the end of the gas off-season, it shows certain resilience. After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure has been released, and the international market has strong bottom support due to the strong chemical demand in East Asia recently [5] - The increase in import cost and the rebound in domestic demand support the price, and the price of civil gas has been raised. Although the high level of warehouse receipts puts pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high basis pattern remains. The short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 17 products experiencing price increases, 28 seeing declines, and 5 remaining stable in late August 2025 compared to mid-August 2025 [1]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) decreased by 42.8 yuan to 3218.2 yuan, a drop of 1.3% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) fell by 48.9 yuan to 3356.5 yuan, down 1.4% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) decreased by 15.5 yuan to 3525.8 yuan, a decline of 0.4% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) dropped by 37.4 yuan to 3444.9 yuan, down 1.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) fell by 10.0 yuan to 4162.5 yuan, a decrease of 0.2% - Angle steel (5) decreased by 17.1 yuan to 3531.4 yuan, down 0.5% [3]. 2. Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) increased by 59.6 yuan to 79237.1 yuan, up 0.1% - Aluminum ingot (A00) rose by 107.6 yuan to 20741.4 yuan, an increase of 0.5% - Lead ingot (1) increased by 38.8 yuan to 16735.7 yuan, up 0.2% - Zinc ingot (0) decreased by 201.3 yuan to 22200.0 yuan, down 0.9% [3]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) fell by 1.2 yuan to 717.2 yuan, a decrease of 0.2% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) increased by 26.4 yuan to 896.1 yuan, up 3.0% - Methanol (first grade) decreased by 37.2 yuan to 2228.8 yuan, down 1.6% - Pure benzene (industrial grade) fell by 90.7 yuan to 6047.6 yuan, down 1.5% - Styrene (first grade) decreased by 7.7 yuan to 7277.9 yuan, down 0.1% - Polyethylene (LLDPE) increased by 24.9 yuan to 7467.6 yuan, up 0.3% - Polypropylene (fiber grade) decreased by 56.1 yuan to 6953.1 yuan, down 0.8% - Polyvinyl chloride (SG5) fell by 67.0 yuan to 4809.5 yuan, down 1.4% - Styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) increased by 118.4 yuan to 11697.6 yuan, up 1.0% - Polyester filament (POY150D/48F) rose by 108.9 yuan to 6871.4 yuan, up 1.6% [3]. 4. Oil and Natural Gas - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 90.7 yuan to 3951.6 yuan, down 2.2% - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased by 67.0 yuan to 4433.8 yuan, up 1.5% - Gasoline (95 National VI) fell by 40.2 yuan to 8469.3 yuan, down 0.5% - Gasoline (92 National VI) decreased by 43.8 yuan to 8192.8 yuan, down 0.5% - Diesel (0 National VI) fell by 37.5 yuan to 7047.8 yuan, down 0.5% - Paraffin (58 half) remained unchanged at 7672.5 yuan [3]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) decreased by 17.0 yuan to 853.0 yuan, down 2.0% - Common mixed coal (4500 kcal) fell by 7.1 yuan to 557.4 yuan, down 1.3% - Shanxi large mixed coal (5000 kcal) decreased by 4.2 yuan to 625.3 yuan, down 0.7% - Shanxi superior mixed coal (5500 kcal) increased by 6.6 yuan to 701.7 yuan, up 0.9% - Datong mixed coal (5800 kcal) rose by 6.3 yuan to 739.7 yuan, up 0.9% - Coking coal (main coking coal) remained unchanged at 1425.0 yuan - Coke (quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke) increased by 61.6 yuan to 1439.3 yuan, up 4.5% [3]. 6. Non-Metallic Building Materials - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bagged) decreased by 2.6 yuan to 346.0 yuan, down 0.7% - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bulk) increased by 0.4 yuan to 272.8 yuan, up 0.1% - Float glass (4.8/5mm) fell by 25.4 yuan to 1190.8 yuan, down 2.1% [3]. 7. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous rice) remained unchanged at 4037.0 yuan - Wheat (national standard grade three) decreased by 4.9 yuan to 2420.7 yuan, down 0.2% - Corn (yellow corn grade two) fell by 16.8 yuan to 2300.9 yuan, down 0.7% - Cotton (lint, white cotton grade three) increased by 141.9 yuan to 14756.3 yuan, up 1.0% - Live pigs (external three yuan) decreased by 0.1 yuan to 13.7 yuan per kilogram, down 0.7% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) fell by 20.4 yuan to 4422.7 yuan, down 0.5% - Soybean meal (crude protein content ≥43%) increased by 1.8 yuan to 3051.1 yuan, up 0.1% - Peanuts (oil peanuts) decreased by 2.4 yuan to 7564.3 yuan, unchanged [4]. 8. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) decreased by 6.3 yuan to 1759.9 yuan, down 0.4% - Compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content 45%) remained unchanged at 3180.0 yuan - Pesticides (glyphosate, 95% raw material) increased by 110.7 yuan to 27085.7 yuan, up 0.4% [4]. 9. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased by 128.0 yuan to 14790.5 yuan, up 0.9% - Pulp (imported needle leaf pulp) decreased by 90.3 yuan to 5677.6 yuan, down 1.6% - Corrugated paper (AA grade 120g) increased by 63.8 yuan to 2704.5 yuan, up 2.4% [4].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国硫酸铵行业市场深度分析及投资前景展望报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年7月中国硫酸铵出口数量为220万吨，同比增长56.7%，出口金额为3.54 亿美元，同比增长68.5%。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 近一年中国硫酸铵出口情况统计图 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows mixed trends globally. In China, the real - estate market varies by region, and the new - energy vehicle market continues to grow. The US economy has limited change, with inflation and employment issues. The global long - term bond market is experiencing a sell - off, and the oil market may face supply - demand imbalances [9][10][11]. - Different commodity markets have diverse trends. For example, the stock index futures may be volatile in the short - term and long - term investors can consider buying on dips; the bond market is influenced by various factors and different strategies are proposed for different investment styles; the black, colored, agricultural, energy - chemical, and other commodity markets all have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends [13][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term trading may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. The A - share market shows a differentiated trend, with the GEM leading the rise. The market turnover has decreased, and the index may adjust its rhythm [13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Conservative strategies can continue to consider the curve - steepening strategy, while aggressive strategies can consider buying on dips in the short - term. The bond market is boosted by the weakening of the equity market and the loosening of the capital supply. The PMI data shows signs of stabilization and differentiation [14][15]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The steel industry's supply policy has limited impact on the market. The downstream demand is weak, and the steel market will continue to adjust with limited space, maintaining a mid - term oscillating trend. Iron ore can be lightly short - sold [17][18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline from high levels in the short - term. The supply may gradually recover after the parade, and the market sentiment has weakened as the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The black market sentiment is weak. Silicon iron can consider long - positions in the 10 - contract, while manganese silicon should be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term [20]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash can be short - sold on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is stable. The glass market has weak sales in various regions, and the inventory may increase [22]. Colored and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum may oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and investors can consider buying on dips in the long - term. Alumina is expected to decline in the medium - term, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [24]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory of zinc is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. The zinc price will oscillate downward [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high supply and demand, with insufficient upward - driving forces. It will mainly oscillate widely in the short - term [26]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate with limited downward space. Polysilicon is mainly affected by policy progress, and the market will have intense games [27][28]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The cotton market is affected by the game between upstream and downstream. The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The long - term trend is to short on rallies [30][31][32]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market has a short - term supply - demand surplus, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The global sugar market is also expected to have a supply surplus [33][34][35]. - **Eggs**: The short - term spot price of eggs is strong, but the 10 - contract is expected to be weak. It is recommended to trade on rebounds with caution [37]. - **Apples**: Investors can buy on dips or use a long - 10 - short - 01 spread strategy. The price of stored apples will be stable, and early - maturing apples will maintain a high - quality, high - price trend [38]. - **Corn**: Short the 01 - contract. The supply pressure of old - crop corn is increasing, and the new - crop corn has a certain expectation of a bumper harvest [39][40]. - **Jujubes**: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price in the production area is stable, and the price in the sales area has a slight decline [41]. - **Pigs**: Short the near - term contracts on rallies and consider long - positions in the 01 - contract. The supply pressure in September is still large, and the demand improvement is limited [41][42]. Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. It is advisable to short on rallies as the inventory may accumulate rapidly after the peak - demand season [43][44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the movement of crude oil, and the short - term price range is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [44][45]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins will oscillate weakly due to high supply pressure and weak demand [45][46]. - **Rubber**: Consider buying on dips and be cautious when chasing high prices. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [46]. - **Methanol**: The price may continue to oscillate weakly due to port inventory accumulation. It is recommended to reduce short - positions due to rumors of plant shutdowns [46][47]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a long - term long strategy after short - term trading. The transportation situation may improve after the parade, and the demand is expected to increase [48]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the movement of crude oil and is stronger than crude oil. The demand is in the peak season, but the supply is also increasing [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The prices of polyester products are expected to be bearish in the short - term due to the weakening of crude oil and the lack of supply - demand support [50]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: It follows the cost of crude oil and has sufficient supply. The demand is difficult to strengthen significantly, and a long - term bearish view is maintained [50]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe whether the port inventory continues to decline and whether the spot trading and demand improve after Chenming's resumption of production [52]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are oscillating, and the spot price is affected by weak trading [53]. - **Urea**: Adopt a bearish strategy. The export news is negative, and the futures price is falling [54]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Consider buying on dips. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is supported by raw materials [55].