每经AI快讯，1月27日，百通能源（001376）(001376.SZ)公告称，公司拟通过全资子公司与安哥拉共和 国丹德港发展有限公司签订《投资意向协议》，拟以自有及自筹资金约4亿美元对外投资，并设立全资 公司百通图达(安哥拉)铝业有限公司，经营范围：铝加工和生产(电解铝及其上下游相关产业)。该投资 事项尚需获得相关政府机关的备案或审批，以及境外当地有关主管部门的备案或批准。 ...

白银有色公告称，公司股票于2026年1月26 - 27日连续两个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超20%，1月 20 - 27日连续6日涨幅达77.26%。经自查，公司生产经营正常，前两大股东不存在未披露重大信息及违 规交易。2025年1 - 9月，公司营收726.43亿元，净利润 - 2.15亿元，预计2025年年度净利润 - 4.5 - - 6.75 亿元，与上年同期相比将亏损。此外，公司市盈率处于较高水平，股东中信国安实业集团质押股份占总 股本29.95%，提醒投资者注意风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved significant milestones during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, establishing a solid foundation for high-quality development and aiming to become a world-class enterprise with global core competitiveness [5][17]. Group 1: Achievements During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The company has made historical achievements, contributing to the overall economic development of the province [21]. - Key areas of focus included enhancing quality and stability in development, optimizing resource allocation, strengthening innovation capabilities, and improving management efficiency [18][19]. - The company successfully completed various production and operational tasks, demonstrating its commitment to high-quality development [20]. Group 2: Strategic Planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization and enhancing the company's global competitiveness [24]. - The strategic focus includes concentrating on core business areas, driving innovation, increasing resource reserves, and pursuing high-quality development [24]. - The company aims to develop a diversified industrial cluster that integrates traditional and emerging industries, enhancing its leadership in the industry [24]. Group 3: Goals and Initiatives for 2026 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and is positioned as a year of significant progress towards becoming a world-class enterprise [27]. - The company will prioritize high-quality development, resource cooperation, and the integration of technology and industry [27]. - Key initiatives include upgrading traditional industries, enhancing resource cooperation, and fostering innovation and efficient management practices [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. The import loss of domestic refined copper narrowed. The US durable goods orders increased by 5.3%, and the market's bet on a new US government shutdown by the end of January reached 78%. In December, China's net refined copper imports decreased by 48.44% year - on - year, while waste copper imports increased. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased. Although high copper prices have weakened consumption and increased inventory, the spill - over effect of the bullish sentiment in precious metals and the capital's pursuit of non - ferrous metals still maintain the upward momentum of copper prices. The current copper price should be evaluated from a financial perspective, and the overall trend is considered bullish and volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina was weakly volatile, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strongly volatile. The spot price of alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Due to environmental control in Henan, alumina production was restricted, and inventory decreased. After the price adjustment, downstream demand improved, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. It is expected that the aluminum price will be supported upwards before the holiday. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and holiday arrangements [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, both LME and Shanghai nickel prices declined, and inventories increased. It is expected that Indonesia's nickel ore production will decrease by 10% - 15% this year. The price of nickel - related products has increased, but the production of primary nickel has increased significantly, and the social inventory has also increased, which may put pressure on the price. In the short term, the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the cost line for potential long - entry opportunities and the actual implementation of policies [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The fundamental and financial factors jointly affect copper prices. The financial attribute is more important at present, and the overall trend is bullish and volatile [1]. - **Aluminum**: Environmental control affects production, downstream demand improves, and the price is expected to be supported upwards [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy supports the price in the short term, but the increase in production and inventory may cause pressure. The price may fluctuate widely at a high level [2][3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1585 yuan/ton, and the import loss narrowed. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 4250 yuan/ton, and the social inventory increased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the inventory increased [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 5.5%, and the inventory increased [7]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 - 2026 [13][14][21][27][33][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9, with employment sub - index hitting a new low since last year but still expanding for six consecutive months, and output reaching the highest level since August 2025. The EU Commission plans to extend the suspension period of anti - tariff measures against the U.S. [2] - For copper, the dollar index is under pressure, which is positive for the non - ferrous sector. However, the spot market has sufficient supply, demand is cautious, and LME inventory accumulation may suppress prices. Short - term copper prices will fluctuate. [2] - For aluminum, the macro - sentiment warms up, but industrial drivers are limited, and domestic inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate. [2] - For zinc, geopolitical tensions are rising, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The domestic processing fee is at a low level, smelting profit is inverted, and production is expected to decline. Zinc prices will follow the sector to fluctuate. [2] - For nickel, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is stable. Indonesia's nickel - related policies and supply - side disturbances may affect prices. Short - term nickel prices are high, and in the long - term, high global inventories may suppress prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term. [2] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal futures prices showed various changes, such as copper at $12,921.5 with a 2.28% change and nickel at $18,705 with a 3.71% change. SHFE prices also had different changes, like aluminum at 23,990 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change and nickel at 145,380 yuan/ton with a 2.81% change. [1] Inventory Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal inventories and their changes varied. For example, LME copper inventory was 170,525 tons with a 26.05% change, and LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons with an 11.43% change. SHFE inventories also had different trends, such as SHFE aluminum inventory increasing from 141,725 tons to 197,053 tons with a 6.01% change. [1][2] Ascending and Descending Water Indicators - LME and SHFE non - ferrous metal ascending and descending water showed different changes. For example, SHFE copper's ascending and descending water changed from - 66.1 yuan/ton to 16.78 yuan/ton with an - 82.8 change. [2] Price - to - Price Ratio Indicators - The current price - to - price ratios of non - ferrous metals and their changes were presented. For example, the copper price - to - price ratio was 7.84 with a 7.81% change, and the zinc price - to - price ratio was 7.51 with a - 1.05% change. [2] Near - month to Continuous Third - month Spread Indicators - The current spreads of SHFE non - ferrous metals and their changes were shown. For example, the copper spread changed from - 290 yuan/ton to - 950 yuan/ton with a - 660 change. [2]

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月26日星期一 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 金银价格持续创历史新高，近期出现加速上行，铜价开始补涨，但 受制于短期市场风险偏好下降，以及基本面阶段性转弱，反弹持续 性不足。美国经济数据显示出消费韧性，白银价格涨幅再度大于黄 金，自身商品属性再度对价格形成上行驱动，利多金属价格。近期 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices increased by 1% during Asian trading, with gold stock ETFs rising over 3% and accumulating a 38% increase year-to-date [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF funds attracted 770 million yuan in a single day, marking 23 consecutive trading days of net inflows since December 23 last year, totaling 13.118 billion yuan [1] - Bank of America raised its short-term gold price target to $6,000, expecting this to be achieved by spring 2026, representing a nearly 10% increase from current highs [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (159562) has seen a net inflow of over 2.39 billion yuan over 10 consecutive days, tracking an index dominated by gold and copper, also including silver-related companies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as the copper fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand [1]. - For aluminum, the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative values, but the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price. The domestic demand has short - term support [2]. - Regarding zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its price increase in the long - run. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [9]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is a continued game between short - term policies and fundamentals [14]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and its price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [18]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - term short - selling is recommended [20]. - Tin can be a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first quarter, but there may be significant downward fluctuations in the second half of the year if the macro situation turns [23]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [26]. - For lithium carbonate, a short - term supply - demand balance in January is expected, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur later [28]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: The copper price tested the 99,000 support level during the week and rose significantly on Friday night [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, but global consumption is good. In China, the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster, and the post - festival inventory reduction may also be rapid [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum ingot price and inventory have shown certain fluctuations. The basis and downstream processing fees of aluminum ingots are still at a low level, and the apparent consumption of aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded [1][2]. - **Demand**: The automobile consumption in December was below expectations and is expected to decline further. However, the photovoltaic installation volume has rebounded better than expected, providing short - term support for domestic demand [2]. Zinc - **Supply**: The domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward, and the domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The production in January is expected to increase by 15,000 tons month - on - month [9]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand in Europe is average. The import window is currently closed [9]. Nickel - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production has slightly declined month - on - month, and the overall demand is weak. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME inventory has remained stable [13][14]. - **Policy Impact**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and the proposed reduction of nickel ore quotas have led to a continued game between policies and fundamentals [14]. Stainless Steel - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mills maintain a high production level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has a slight reduction from a high level [18]. - **Price Driver**: The price is mainly driven by the nickel price in the short - term, and the news of Indonesian quotas is the main factor affecting the price recently [18]. Lead - **Supply and Demand**: The primary lead production is driven by profits, and the recycled lead has resumed production. The demand for batteries is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated [19][20]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - term short - selling is recommended [20]. Tin - **Supply**: There are differences in the expectation of the resumption of production in Wa State in the first quarter, and Indonesia has determined its 2026 quota. The production in the Congo (Kinshasa) and Rwanda is currently not affected by the war [23]. - **Demand**: The downstream replenishment willingness varies, and the electronic consumption demand is resilient. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the overseas LME inventory has oscillated upwards [23]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region is at a low level, and the production in Xinjiang is stable. The overall monthly supply is shrinking, and it is expected to be less than 400,000 tons in January [26]. - **Price Trend**: The price is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [26]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream is in the maintenance cycle, and the downstream production reduction is less than expected. The supply and demand are close to balance in January, and the actual inventory reduction is greatly affected by the maintenance intensity [28]. - **Inventory and Price**: The inventory of upstream and downstream is low, and the intermediate link accounts for a high proportion. The price is greatly affected by futures market expectations and sentiment [28].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fluctuated around 103,400 CNY, while London copper traded near 13,200 USD [4][19] - U.S. durable goods orders for November increased by 5.3%, marking the largest growth in six months, which weakened expectations for interest rate cuts and put pressure on copper prices [5][19] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,479 tons to 145,000 tons, while LME copper inventories fell by 1,175 tons to 170,000 tons [5][19] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply expectations, but high inventory levels may limit price increases [5][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term [6][20] - The Indonesian policy outlook remains tight, with concerns over monopolistic behavior in logistics affecting market sentiment [6][20] - The reference trading range for nickel is set between 140,000 and 160,000 CNY per ton [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with spot prices stabilizing [8][22] - Supply-side adjustments are being made by high-cost producers, and logistics are tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, limiting further price declines [8][22] - The reference trading range for aluminum is projected between 23,500 and 24,500 CNY per ton [9][24] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, supported by low treatment charges (TC) and market sentiment [10][25] - The reference trading range for zinc is set between 24,500 and 26,000 CNY per ton [10][25] Group 5: Lead Market - The lead market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances persisting [11][25] - The reference trading range for lead is projected between 16,800 and 17,800 CNY per ton [11][25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback after reaching new highs, driven by profit-taking and heightened market volatility [12][27] - The reference trading ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are set at 1,120-1,160 CNY per gram, 27,000-29,500 CNY per kilogram, 660-720 CNY per gram, and 480-530 CNY per gram, respectively [12][27]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term due to a tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories, with support from policy and sentiment [5]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be strong and range - bound as domestic inventory accumulation is not a major negative in the off - season, and LME inventory is low while US aluminum spot premiums are high, with support from loose policies at home and abroad [8]. - The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally as winter transportation issues tighten recycled smelting raw materials [10]. - The zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes as overseas natural gas price hikes raise concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios are at low levels [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to capital games in the futures market, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a potential callback risk due to large supply - side uncertainties and increased profit - taking after a rapid rise, and it is recommended to use light positions or options [19]. - Alumina prices may face difficulties in continuous rebound due to over - capacity, declining cost support, and delivery pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise further but with large fluctuations, as the raw material supply is expected to be tight and social inventory continues to decline [25]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong and range - bound due to strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances [28] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices hit new highs and then fell, copper prices also rose and then declined. LME copper 3M rose 0.42% to $13,183/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,175 tons to 170,525 tons, North American inventory growth slowed, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 0.1 to 145,000 tons. Shanghai and Guangdong spot copper were at a discount to futures, and the spot import loss of SHFE copper widened to about 850 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,810 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Precious metals rose sharply and then fell, aluminum prices fluctuated and closed higher. LME aluminum closed up 0.69% at $3,195/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,380 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.7 to 732,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 142,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, aluminum rod processing fees rebounded with dull trading. The spot discount of East China electrolytic aluminum to futures widened, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 505,000 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio decreasing [7]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 24,100 - 24,600 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,140 - 3,220/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 17,079 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S rose $1 to $2,027/ton, with a total position of 171,400 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 60 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 28,100 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 44.556 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.7 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.216, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 174.01 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 34,900 tons, an increase of 70 tons from January 22 [9]. - **Strategy**: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising and higher than in previous years, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has declined slightly but remains high, the recycled smelting start - up rate has increased marginally, and the finished product inventory of primary and recycled smelting plants and lead ingot social inventory have both increased. However, the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.59% to 24,744 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 236,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S rose $53 to $3,292/ton, with a total position of 230,200 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,680 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong basis was 25 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 10 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton. LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,500 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,400 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 32.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.085, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,342.1 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market zinc ingot social inventory was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [11]. - **Strategy**: The visible zinc ore inventory is accumulating, zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized, zinc smelting profits have slightly recovered, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory destocking has slowed. After the SHFE - LME price ratio recovered, the outflow of zinc improved. Although short - term bullish sentiment has retreated, the rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 26, tin prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 425,340 yuan/ton, down 0.98% from the previous day. SHFE inventory was reported at 8,624 tons, an increase of 42 tons from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelter start - up rate in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to a shortage of recycled tin raw materials. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing意愿, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the tin price fell last week, the rigid demand for replenishment was concentrated. As of January 23, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices are determined by capital games in the futures market. In the context of a strong trend in precious metals and the non - ferrous sector, tin prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - 58,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 26, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,050 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 7.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The WK Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,795 yuan in the evening session, down 3.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 165,500 - 173,000 yuan, with the average price down 6,000 yuan (- 3.42%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 162,000 - 170,000 yuan, with the average price down 3.63% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 165,680 yuan, down 8.73% from the previous closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [18]. - **Strategy**: On Monday, lithium carbonate rose and then fell, and the total contract position decreased by 53,900 lots. Although the fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, the supply - side uncertainty is large. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, there are more profit - taking orders, and there is a potential callback risk. It is recommended to use light positions or options. The reference range for the GZEE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 158,800 - 172,600 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 15:00 on January 26, 2026, the alumina index rose 0.37% to 2,729 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 679,300 lots, a decrease of 37,500 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 177 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price rose $1/ton to $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 84 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Monday were reported at 149,200 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $60/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production at the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to decline. Alumina smelting over - capacity is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,645 yuan/ton, down 0.54% (- 80) on the day, with a long - short position of 319,200 lots, an increase of 834 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market was reported at 14,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 395 (+ 180), and the Wuxi basis was - 345 (- 20). The Hongwang 201 in Foshan was reported at 9,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of Shandong high - nickel iron was reported at 1,045 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was reported at 8,450 yuan/50 - base tons, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was reported at 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. As of January 23, social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, of which 300 - series inventory was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [24]. - **Strategy**: Last week, the stainless steel market was active, and price fluctuations intensified. Due to the widening nickel - stainless steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity shifted to high - grade nickel matte production, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality tradable resources in the market. In addition, futures warrants are at a low level, and the stainless steel market shows a structurally tight supply in the short term, with near - month contracts continuing to strengthen. Although downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, traders' enthusiasm for stocking increased, and social inventory continued to decline. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the suspected monopoly of port logistics in the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park, the supply of stainless steel may be affected. Overall, the expectation of tight raw