Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall consumption of copper globally remains strong, and as a key mineral metal, there is still significant rigid demand at current prices, so the price is expected to continue rising in the medium - term. In the short - term, the stabilization time of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for Shanghai copper [1] - Aluminum prices fluctuated sharply during the week. If there is a callback opportunity, one can consider going long. However, if the situation in Iran deteriorates, it may cause aluminum prices to rise further [1] - The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but due to limited long - term capital expenditure and potential supply disruptions of about 100,000 tons from Iranian zinc mines, the market is optimistic about the allocation flexibility of zinc. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] - The short - term real - world fundamentals of nickel are weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and continuous domestic delivery to warehouses while LME inventory remains stable. The short - term is dominated by overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, with a slight decline in steel mill production, downstream entering the off - season, a small increase in costs, and a slight accumulation of inventory. The short - term is dominated by overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market [7][8] - The supply and demand contradiction of lead has been alleviated, with an expected loosening of the spot market and inventory accumulation for the third consecutive week. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short - term [10] - In the short - term, it is recommended to mainly observe the tin market due to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. In the long - term, 2026 is a year with a large recovery in supply, and if the macro situation turns, there may be a large downward fluctuation in the second half of the year [13] - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease, with a possible inventory reduction in February. Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14] - The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate is strong, and the market is in a de - stocking trend during the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links further decreases to a low level, there is a large space for calendar spread arbitrage [14] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated significantly in both directions. The US's ability to siphon inventory is gradually disappearing, but global consumption remains strong. After the rapid price adjustment due to the precious metals market, downstream price - fixing is obvious, and the industrial support remains [1] Aluminum - As the holiday approaches, the start - up rate of aluminum products has declined seasonally. Affected by the external fluctuations of the domestic non - ferrous and precious metals sectors and overseas macro and geopolitical events, aluminum prices rose and fell sharply during the week. After the price increase, there was an unexpected increase in supply, and terminal demand was weak [1] Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and domestic smelters are competing for zinc ore inventory. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The LME inventory overseas has rebounded, and the premium has turned into a discount [2] Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel has declined slightly. On the demand side, it is overall weak. On the inventory side, there is continuous domestic delivery to warehouses, and the LME inventory remains stable. The short - term is affected by the news of the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [3] Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production has declined slightly. On the demand side, the downstream is entering the off - season. Costs have increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated slightly. It is affected by the news of Indonesian quotas [7][8] Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production is driven by profit, and there is a seasonal decline in concentrate production. On the demand side, the battery start - up rate is at a high level this week, but there is an expected weakening of demand. There has been inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks [10] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated sharply due to the impact of precious metals and the overall non - ferrous metals market. There are differences in the expectation of the resumption of production in Wa State in the first quarter. On the demand side, there are differences in the willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, and overseas consumption is flat. Domestic and overseas inventories have increased slightly [13] Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are mostly in a shutdown state, and some factories in Xinjiang have slightly reduced production. The monthly supply is continuously shrinking, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in February. Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs [14] Lithium Carbonate - Affected by macro - sentiment, regulatory tightening, and concerns about terminal negative feedback, the absolute price and positions have dropped significantly. In the short - term, supply and demand are strong, and the market is in a de - stocking trend during the off - season [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to stabilize. The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops, alleviating the surplus expectation [4]. - Aluminum prices are supported. Although the domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate and the downstream demand is still weak, the LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [6]. - The lead industry is currently weak. The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC remains low, the production rate of primary lead remains at a relatively high level, and the primary lead ingot accumulates. The waste inventory of secondary lead rises, the secondary lead smelting profit declines slightly, but the production rate of secondary lead rises marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises declines slightly, and both the smelting finished product inventory and social inventory rise [8]. - Zinc prices are still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute rise of the sector. The raw material inventory of zinc ore rises, the decline rate of zinc ore slows down, the inventory accumulation of LME zinc ingots slows down, the spread between 3 - 15 months of LME zinc rises, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices causes concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows. After the market sentiment fades, the trading focus of zinc prices may return to the industrial logic [10][11]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The supply and demand of tin ingots are marginally loose, and the inventory has been rising steadily recently. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading from expected trading. The premium of refined nickel over ferronickel remains high, and the production of refined nickel is expected to increase significantly in January. The continuous increase of domestic nickel inventory in the past three weeks has significantly dragged down the nickel price [16]. - For lithium carbonate, although the fundamental improvement expectation remains unchanged, the current commodity market has large fluctuations, and the market atmosphere has a greater impact than the fundamental changes. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously or try with a light position [20]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to fluctuate downward, the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see mainly, and pay attention to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. - For stainless steel, although the market fluctuated significantly last week and the price of precious metals fell sharply on Friday, dragging down the non - ferrous metal sector, the cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the core upward logic has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, although the demand is relatively average, the short - term price is supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The US dollar index continued to rise, precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined. The LME 3M copper closed down 1.3% to $12,900/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,820 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 300 to 174,675 tons, with Asian inventory decreasing and European and American inventory increasing. The cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the bonded area inventory decreased month - on - month, the SHFE daily warrant increased by 0.2 to 159,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 130 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 265 yuan/ton to the futures. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,350 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month [3]. Strategy View - Trump plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve plan, and the gold price has stabilized. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and the eurozone are better than expected, and the sentiment has eased marginally. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is moderately hawkish, interest rate cuts are still an important means to promote the reshaping of the US manufacturing industry, and the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops, alleviating the surplus expectation. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,600 - 13,300/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The sharp decline in silver led to the spread of pessimistic sentiment, and the decline in crude oil caused the aluminum price to drop significantly. The LME aluminum closed down 2.52% to $3,056/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,530 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 75,000 to 668,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 5,000 to 150,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 29,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 14,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods was raised, and the demand was weak. The spot in East China was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and the downstream procurement sentiment was cautious. The LME aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 to 497,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount [5]. Strategy View - The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream demand is still weak due to high prices and the off - season, but it does not constitute a major negative for the price. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so the aluminum price is still strongly supported. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,000 - 3,120/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.21% to 16,714 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 104,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead fell 44.5 to $1,959.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 95 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 205,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrant was 18,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 45.87 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 131.5 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.232, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 339.74 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 2 was 39,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with January 29 [7]. Strategy View - The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC remains low, the production rate of primary lead remains at a relatively high level, and the primary lead ingot accumulates. The waste inventory of secondary lead rises, the secondary lead smelting profit declines slightly, but the production rate of secondary lead rises marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises declines slightly, and both the smelting finished product inventory and social inventory rise. The expectation of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman on January 30 led to the ebb of market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently fluctuating greatly. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2 was 52.6, higher than the previous forecast, which alleviated the panic sentiment to some extent [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 5.17% to 24,524 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 215,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc fell 130.5 to $3,268.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 239,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,970 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 30 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 90 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrant was 13,500 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 8.41 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 70.48 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.083, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,579.4 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 2 was 111,200 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons compared with January 29 [9]. Strategy View - In the industrial end, the raw material inventory of zinc ore rises, and the decline rate of zinc ore slows down. The inventory accumulation of LME zinc ingots slows down, the spread between 3 - 15 months of LME zinc rises, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices causes concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. On January 29, the new government of Bolivia stopped a zinc ore development project awarded to a Chinese consortium, with a designed processing capacity of 150,000 tons of concentrates. Coupled with the fact that the zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, the zinc price is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute rise of the sector. The expectation of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman on January 30 led to the ebb of market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently fluctuating greatly. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2 was 52.6, higher than the previous forecast, which alleviated the panic sentiment to some extent. The trading focus of zinc prices may return to the industrial logic in the future [10][11]. Tin Market Information - On February 2, the tin price dived in the morning and then hit the daily limit. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 392,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0% compared with the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 8,097 tons, a decrease of 527 tons compared with the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two places recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient, and there were both constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see from downstream. The short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory before the Spring Festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure brought by the overall rise of the metal sector to the terminal industry, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,556 tons, an increase of 555 tons compared with last Friday [12]. Strategy View - The price of precious metals fell sharply on Friday, and the market may return to real - world trading in the short term. Under the background of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 51,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 129,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39% compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 7,250 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of cost, the price of nickel ore remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of ferronickel, the price fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,054 yuan/nickel point, the same as the previous day [15]. Strategy View - It is believed that the nickel price will be weak in the short term. On the one hand, although the expectation of the reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia still exists, with the end of the phased upward trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the market may return to real - world trading from expected trading. On the other hand, the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel remains high. Under the background of the conversion of ferronickel to high - grade nickel matte, it is expected that the production of refined nickel will increase significantly in January. At present, the domestic nickel inventory has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks, which significantly drags down the nickel price. Therefore, whether from the perspective of the overall surplus or the high premium of refined nickel in the structure, the nickel price has a large risk of decline. The short - term operating range of the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 141,158 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 8.99% compared with the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 150,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 13,900 yuan (- 8.94%) compared with the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 130,000 - 147,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 9.31% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the LC26

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/2/2 | 李先飞 | 王蓉 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及责金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2026/1/5 | 2026/2/2 | 2026/1/30 | 2026/1/26 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | -152.82 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: High nickel prices stimulate production, but demand is weak. The price is expected to fall and then fluctuate widely, with the main reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan [2]. - Stainless steel: Cost support is strengthened, but demand and inventory digestion are insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The regulatory environment is strengthened, and the price is supported. It may fall in the short - term, with the main reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan [8]. - Copper: In the long - term, the copper price bottom is expected to rise. In the short - term, it may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to CL premium changes, with the main support range of 101,500 - 103,000 yuan [9]. - Zinc: The zinc price is supported by tight mines. Although there is negative feedback on the demand side, the fundamentals are good, and attention should be paid to zinc mine TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main support range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan [13]. - Tin: Short - term prices fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious. In the medium - to - long - term, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [14]. - Aluminum alloy: It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to waste aluminum circulation, import window changes, and pre - holiday downstream inventory [15]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait for price stability and volatility decline to go long, and pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan [16]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to oscillate, with the main price range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to production reduction and demand changes [17]. - Polysilicon: In February, supply and demand are weak. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to order recovery and capacity regulation. The price may be supported at 45,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1.25% [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 160,500 yuan/ton, down 4.46% [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 104,410 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 25,790 yuan/ton, up 1.98% [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 428,650 yuan/ton, down 2.27% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,350 yuan/ton, down 0.81% [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,660 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: East China SI4210 industrial silicon price is 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 51,300 yuan/kg, down 2.29% [18]. Monthly Spread - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless steel**: 2602 - 2603 is - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 is - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 is - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 is - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 is - 1000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: 2602 - 2603 is - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 is 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is - 1230 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in January is 31,400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month [2]. - **Stainless steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in January is 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month [5]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production in December is 99,200 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month [8]. - **Copper**: Electrolytic copper production in January is 117.93 million tons, up 0.10% month - on - month [9]. - **Zinc**: Refined zinc production in January is 56.06 million tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: SMM refined tin production in December is 15,950 tons, down 0.06% [14]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in December is 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month [15]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina production in January is 738.56 million tons, down 1.78% month - on - month [16]. - **Industrial silicon**: National industrial silicon production in January is 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon production in January is 10.08 million tons, down 12.73% [18].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Baiyin Nonferrous Metals has hit the daily limit down, with a price of 12.3 yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.02% and a total market capitalization of 91.079 billion yuan [1] - The company reported a significant loss in its 2025 financial forecast, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between -675 million and -450 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1] - The company has also made a large provision for expected liabilities amounting to 314 million yuan, further indicating poor operational performance and declining profitability [1] Group 2 - There was a notable outflow of funds, with the company being included in the "Dragon and Tiger List" on January 29, 2026, showing a total trading volume of 9.406 billion yuan, with net selling by institutional investors amounting to 2.318 billion yuan [1] - The high valuation risk is highlighted by the company's static price-to-earnings (PE) ratio reaching as high as 1392 times, significantly exceeding the industry average, raising concerns about the stock's valuation amidst the reported losses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints Electrolytic Aluminum - In the short - term, due to the sharp drop in precious metals and the seasonal off - season of Spring Festival consumption, the futures price is expected to adjust at a high level. In the long - term, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts remains unchanged, supply constraints exist in the long - term, and the aluminum demand in new fields like energy storage, data centers, and new energy vehicles is growing explosively, so the upward trend of aluminum price remains optimistic [3][8] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, maintaining a high - level shock. The supply - side production capacity decreases slightly, the import window is closed, and the supply pressure is not large. The profit has slightly recovered, and enterprises' willingness to ship has increased. The demand side continues to weaken [3][9] 3. Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/30 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3173.5 | 3135.5 | - 38.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 24395 | 24695 | 300.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 3.75 | - 26.66 | - 22.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 507275 | 495725 | - 11550.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 141152 | 145071 | 3919.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 23816 | 24336 | 520.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 240 | - 70.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23858 | 24318 | 460.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 42 | 18 | 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 74.3 | 78.2 | 3.9 | tons | | Electrolytic Aluminum Theoretical Average Cost | 15883.79 | 15866.81 | - 17.0 | yuan/ton | | Electrolytic Aluminum Weekly Average Profit | 7932.21 | 8469.19 | 537.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 24000 | 24350 | 350.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23500 | 23700 | 200.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2919 | 3174 | 255.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3725 | 4088 | 363.0 | yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 67892 | 68206 | 314.0 | tons | [4] Market Review Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 24336 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot is 24318 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from last week. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, Trump plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, the US government may face a partial shutdown, US durable goods orders increased significantly in November 2025, the consumer confidence index in January decreased, and the trade deficit in November 2025 increased significantly. Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate dropped to 59.4%, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6] Cast Aluminum - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose to 58.9%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 314 tons [7] Market Outlook Electrolytic Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a rise in the US dollar index, the position of SHFE aluminum fluctuated. The supply of new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia increased slowly, the aluminum water ratio decreased, the aluminum processing operating rate dropped significantly, and the inventory increased. In the short - term, the price is expected to adjust at a high level, and in the long - term, the upward trend remains [8] Cast Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased, the demand weakened, some enterprises stopped production in advance for the Spring Festival, the price of cast aluminum increased rapidly, the inventory of the exchange increased. The supply pressure is not large, the profit has slightly recovered, and the demand continues to weaken, maintaining a high - level shock [9] Industry News - Baitong Energy plans to invest no more than $40 million in Angola to set up a subsidiary for electrolytic aluminum processing [10][11] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest about $437 million in Indonesia to build a 250,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project [14] - Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, with an expected annual output of 750,000 tons [14] - The exchange added two registered aluminum ingot brands with a total production capacity of 1 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, etc., which show the historical data and trends of relevant indicators [13][16][18]

Core Insights - The establishment of the Guangxi Critical Metals Research Institute aims to address key technological challenges in the critical metals sector and promote the high-end, intelligent, green, large-scale, and park-based development of Guangxi's critical metals industry [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - Guangxi is a significant resource-rich area for critical metals in China, with the non-ferrous metals industry projected to reach a value of 393.7 billion yuan by 2024, making it the largest industrial sector in the region [2] - The non-ferrous metals industry faces challenges of being "large but not strong" and "coarse but not refined," prompting the need for innovation and development [2] Group 2: Research Institute Objectives - The Guangxi Critical Metals Research Institute will focus on five key areas: efficient resource exploration and green mining, low-carbon smelting technology, high-purity metal and compound preparation, high-end materials and device development, and resource recycling and pollution prevention [3] - The institute aims to create a comprehensive innovation ecosystem that promotes the overall upgrade of the industry from resource extraction to product development [3] Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The institute will serve as a platform for precise and efficient matching of technological achievements with enterprise needs, facilitating collaboration between research teams and companies [4] - A regular communication mechanism will be established to ensure that research efforts are aligned with real industry challenges, with over 60 dual-employed researchers already engaged in diagnostics across more than 50 key enterprises in Guangxi [5] Group 4: Talent Development and Future Goals - The institute plans to attract high-level talent through competitive compensation, high-quality platform construction, and supportive policies, aiming to cultivate over 100 high-level talents and establish more than 10 technology-based enterprises by 2030 [3][5] - By 2030, the institute aims to overcome more than 50 key technologies and support an additional industrial output value of over 80 billion yuan, positioning Guangxi as a national hub for critical metals innovation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral, with a price range of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, tin prices may still have a certain downward risk due to the overall influence of the non - ferrous sector, and tin prices are generally highly elastic. However, the tight fundamental situation has not significantly reversed. If the sharp decline further expands the safety margin, tin prices may have a repair and rebound market. There are significant differences in short - term unilateral views, and it is recommended to use option tools for protection [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount is - 227 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 0 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums remain flat [10][15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure maintains a C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 165 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 58 tons. LME inventory increased, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 3.74% [27][32] 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds precipitated in Shanghai tin are 391,560 million yuan, and the funds have flowed out in the past 10 days [36] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume of Shanghai tin increased, and the position decreased. The trading volume and position of LME tin increased [39][45] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined [51] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In October 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In December 2025, imports were 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level rebounded [55][57] 3.2.2 Smelting - In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.34%, a slight decline from last week [62][64] 3.2.3 Import - In December 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 10,538 yuan/ton [74] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [82] 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in December dropped to 72.7%. The output and sales of major tinplate enterprises in October increased slightly [84] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products performed well. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption rebounded month - on - month, while the automobile consumption declined month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [91][93][99]

文/张智 从企业规模来看，大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业 支撑作用持续显现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水 平有所回落。 一个亮点是，高技术制造业持续领跑。高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水 平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行 业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 企业预期保持乐观。生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食 品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对 近期行业发展信心较强。 编辑：徐芸茜 1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，但传统淡季下企业生产仍继 续扩张。 具体来看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有 所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yongmaotai announced an expected increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 60 million to 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 22.49 million to 32.49 million yuan, which corresponds to a growth rate of approximately 59.96% to 86.62% [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 60 million and 70 million yuan [1] - This represents an increase of approximately 22.49 million to 32.49 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The year-on-year growth rate is expected to be between 59.96% and 86.62% [1]