Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If the geopolitical conflict persists and supports oil prices at a high level, inflation stickiness expectations may strengthen, pushing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to remain strong, which may suppress the rebound space of precious metals. However, if the slowdown of the US economy is further verified by data, with weak non - farm payroll data and significantly higher CPI inflation, gold prices may benefit from the substantial increase in stagflation risks. In the long - term, central banks' continuous gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit still exist, and gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains. The strategy can be short - term wait - and - see and long - term bargain - hunting [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 16.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 17707 yuan/kg, up 218 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 180,953 hands, up 11,870 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 25,923 hands, down 6,769 hands. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 393,515 hands, up 77,112 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,060,304 hands, up 186,734 hands. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 106,644 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 374,427 kg, up 2,628 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1008.75 yuan/gram, up 14.85 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 17,305 yuan/kg, up 157 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.13 yuan/gram, down 1.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 402 yuan/kg, down 61 yuan [2] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1052.70 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,409.46 tons, unchanged. - The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC are 168,327 contracts, up 8,458 contracts; the non - commercial net long positions of silver in CFTC are 24,673 contracts, up 2,792 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. - The US dollar index is 100.18, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.13%, up 0.05% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index is 31.05, up 3.61; the CBOE gold volatility index is 45.51, up 0.44. - The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.41, down 0.04; the gold - silver ratio is 66.44, up 0.21 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. The US vice - president says the US has no intention to stay in Iran. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to be intense and stalemate, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the degree and frequency of air - raids on Tehran increasing. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of the US economic recession due to the continuous Middle - East conflict, soaring oil prices and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, and Goldman Sachs has raised it to 30%. - A "weeks - long quick victory" ground - war plan of the US military in Iran is exposed, and the US Department of Defense is preparing for a weeks - long ground operation in Iran, with over 50,000 US troops in the Middle - East. - Trump will submit an annual budget request to the US Congress on April 3, seeking a significant increase in defense spending and a reduction in the scale of domestic institutions, with the proposed national security spending possibly reaching up to $1.5 trillion. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.9%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hikes by June is 8.8%, 50 - basis - point hikes is 0.1%, and keeping rates unchanged is 91.1% [2] 6. Key Points to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index - April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment Number - April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI - April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 - April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance - April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1860 - 1910 yuan/ton in the short term [2] - Although reserve supplies are being released, most urea factories still have tight supplies, and the inventory of some factories is gradually decreasing. In the last stage of stockpiling, local factories actively releasing reserves may lead to a decline in urea enterprise inventory [2] - The market trading sentiment has cooled down under the multiple measures of price - guiding constraints and the release of reserve supplies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1882 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 46 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 770 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 188,548 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,155 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,655 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 8,707, with no change [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1870 yuan/ton, 1860 yuan/ton, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Shandong is 1900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu is 1890 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 622.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27.5 US dollars/ton; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 752.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 US dollars/ton [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 23 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 16.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 70.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%; the daily urea output is 210,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,300 tons [2] - The urea export volume is 11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20%; the monthly urea output is 6,035,310 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 254,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 51.24%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.27%; the melamine operating rate is 65.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 6.67% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 2,719 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,707 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 444.13 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 73.86 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons, or 13.40% [2] - As of March 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons, or 1.20% [2] - As of March 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4756 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43.8 million tons, or 2.88%; the capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple market transaction has slowed down, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is average. As of March 25, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in the main producing areas across the country was 441.79 million tons, a decrease of 26.64 million tons compared to last week, and the shipment in the producing areas has relatively slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi has decreased. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong, and second - and third - level wholesalers generally maintain on - demand purchases. Due to the general demand, the apple price may enter a volatile market in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,863 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan; the main contract position is 51,151 lots, a decrease of 6,030 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 5,414 lots, an increase of 832 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial products) is 4.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares. The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg. The total inventory in the national apple cold storage is 441.79 million tons, a decrease of 26.64 million tons; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.37, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.34, a decrease of 0.03. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year export amount of apples is 24.5%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,222,458 million US dollars, a decrease of 1,084,304 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The daily average number of incoming vehicles in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 15.2 vehicles, unchanged; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16.4 vehicles, a decrease of 0.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 26.6 vehicles, an increase of 0.2 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 40.42%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 0.55%, a decrease of 39.87 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On Monday, the I2605 contract traded in a range. The macro - situation involves the US military's quick - decision plan for ground warfare. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. Steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production continued to rise, port inventories declined, and the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction, providing support for iron ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows DIFF and DEA running near the 0 - axis. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - I main contract closing price: 813.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan [2] - I main contract position: 371,421 lots, down 15,823 lots [2] - I 5 - 9 contract spread: 22 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2] - I contract top 20 net position: - 5,545 lots, up 1,075 lots [2] - Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore warehouse receipts: 2,700.00 lots, down 500.00 lots [2] - Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00: 107.25 US dollars/ton, up 0.30 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore: 846 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan [2] - Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fine ore: 823 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan [2] - Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore: 742 yuan/dry ton, unchanged [2] - I main contract basis (Mac fine dry ton - main contract): 10 yuan, up 4 yuan [2] - Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day): 108.10 US dollars/ton, down 0.40 US dollars [2] - Ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fine ore: 3.21, unchanged [2] - Estimated import cost: 861 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - Global iron ore shipments (weekly): 2,472.40 million tons, down 671.90 million tons [2] - China's 47 - port arrivals (weekly): 2,626.70 million tons, up 243.60 million tons [2] - 47 - port iron ore inventory (weekly): 17,666.83 million tons, down 147.35 million tons [2] - Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly): 8,978.56 million tons, down 55.50 million tons [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Iron ore imports (monthly): 9,764.00 million tons, down 1,475.00 million tons [2] - Iron ore available days (weekly): 25.00 days, up 6 days [2] - 266 mines' daily output (weekly): 40.16 million tons, down 0.69 million tons [2] - 266 mines' operating rate (weekly): 63.62%, down 0.67% [2] - 266 mines' iron concentrate inventory (weekly): 61.95 million tons, down 1.18 million tons [2] - BDI index: 2,031.00, up 17.00 [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao: 30.48 US dollars/ton, down 0.08 US dollars [2] - Iron ore freight rate: Western Australia - Qingdao: 10.99 US dollars/ton, up 0.39 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly): 81.05%, up 1.25% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly): 86.65%, up 1.10% [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily): 15.38%, up 0.02% [2] - Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily): 16.21%, down 0.20% [2] - At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily): 21.95%, down 0.82% [2] - At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily): 22.08%, up 0.22% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 2,472.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1,875.1 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 841.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 million tons [2] - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, China's 47 - port arrivals totaled 2,626.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 million tons; 45 - port arrivals totaled 2,426.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports totaled 1,198.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 million tons. Australia's shipments were 1,033.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 million tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 839.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with a reduction in positions. In late March, many banks in Jiangsu, Jilin, Fujian, Sichuan and other places initiated a new round of "interest rate cuts", with deposit rates generally dropping to the "1" level. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded above 2.2 million tons, and the market sentiment improved. The short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross - rebounded at a low level, and the red bar enlarged. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,139.00 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] - RB main contract position: 976,441 lots, down 99,718 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net position: - 48,433 lots, up 20,191 lots [2] - RB5 - 10 contract spread: - 29 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 99,613 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 169 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,364 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,210.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - RB main contract basis: 141.00 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 40.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 60.8% PB iron ore fines: 792.00 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan [2] - Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,970.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 169.9684 million tons, down 1.0583 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 497,600 tons, down 25,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.9173 million tons, up 39,500 tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 2.3994 million tons, down 95,900 tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 81.05%, up 1.25 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 86.65%, up 1.10 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar output: 1.9787 million tons, down 54,600 tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 43.37%, down 1.20 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 2.1916 million tons, down 170,400 tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 6.4275 million tons, down 104,600 tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 69.79%, up 3.12 percentage points [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons [2] - Chinese rebar monthly output: 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 7.47 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 3.80%, down 5.60 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 17.20%, down 6.10 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: - 2.20%, down 2.20 percentage points [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.5989 billion square meters, down 1.24518 billion square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 587.7 million square meters, down 536.86 million square meters [2] - Commodity housing unsold area: 402.36 million square meters, up 35.16 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - On March 30, an Iranian parliamentarian said that Iran is seriously considering withdrawing from the Non - Proliferation Treaty and plans to implement stricter access and toll systems for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iranian steel plants, which are expected to create a rigid supply gap of 5 - 5.5 million tons/year in the short term, with the most prominent gaps in plates, billets and long products [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, is the dominant factor affecting the market. It has led to increased inflation pressure, changes in the Fed's monetary policy expectations, and significant impacts on various asset classes [5][28]. - The market's trading logic may shift from a tightening trade to a stagflation trade, and attention should be paid to next - week's non - farm payroll data [5]. - The US economy shows resilience, but the Fed's stance has become more cautious, and the market has dispelled the expectation of rate cuts this year and is starting to price in the risk of rate hikes [5][87]. - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, but the export uncertainty has increased due to the US - Iran war, and domestic demand still requires continuous policy support [101]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro脉络追踪 - The Middle - East situation is highly uncertain, with the US - Iran conflict in a stage of fighting and negotiating. The involvement of the Yemeni Houthi rebels increases the risk of further escalation, intensifying market stagflation concerns [5]. - Fed officials have become more cautious, and the market has dispelled the expectation of rate cuts this year and is starting to price in the risk of rate hikes [5]. - The A - share market lacks short - term opportunities, and long - term bonds in the domestic bond market are under pressure due to inflation concerns, while short - term bonds benefit from capital balance [5]. Global大类资产走势一览 Equity Market - This week, the global stock market's risk appetite continued to decline, with most global stocks recording losses. In developed markets, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, the German DAX fell 0.35%, etc.; in emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.29%, etc. The MSCI global index generally declined, with the frontier market performing better than the emerging, global, and developed markets [7][9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rebounded to 100.2, up 0.67% from last week. The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly by 0.42% to 6.91. The US dollar's strength continued to suppress emerging - market currencies, with most emerging - market and developed - market currencies depreciating [11][13]. Bond Market - Inflation concerns led to a continued upward oscillation of the 10 - year government bond yields in major developed countries. In developed countries, the US Treasury yield rose 5bp to 4.44%, the UK Treasury yield rose 5bp, and the Japanese Treasury yield rose 1bp. In emerging - market countries, the Chinese Treasury yield fell to 1.82%, while the Indian and Brazilian Treasury yields rose [15][16]. Commodity Market - Under liquidity tightening, commodities consolidated. WTI crude oil rose 3.15%, and natural gas fell 1.97%. The metal sector rebounded, with LME copper rising 2.59%, LME aluminum rising 2.9%, COMEX gold falling 0.05%, and silver rising 2.89%. The domestic commodity market had mixed performance, with non - ferrous metals > black metals > industrial products > energy and chemicals > agricultural products > precious metals [24][20]. 大类资产周度展望 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to be in a weak oscillation. Short - term rate - hike expectations have slightly increased, and the Turkish sale of gold reserves has increased gold's volatility. The gold price is testing the support at $4000 per ounce [26][28]. - Silver is in a short - term weak oscillation. The Middle - East situation continues to disrupt the market, and the silver price is testing the support at $60 per ounce [39]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is expected to be in an oscillatory state. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation has increased, and the US dollar will maintain high - level fluctuations [26]. US Stocks - The US stock market is expected to be in an oscillatory and weak state. The US - Iran conflict has increased market stagflation concerns, and before the situation eases, the US stock market is expected to operate in a weak and oscillatory manner [26][45]. A - shares - The A - share market is bearish. The A - share market is in a chaotic pricing state at this stage, and there are few short - term opportunities [26][58]. Government Bonds - In the short - term, the market will still be disturbed by risk - aversion sentiment and rising inflation. Long - term bonds should be more concerned about inflation, while short - term bonds have relatively higher safety [26][62]. 全球宏观经济数据跟踪 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US GDPNow model predicts that the Q1 growth rate will drop to 2%, while the Redbook retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 6.7%, indicating that the US economy still maintains resilience [75]. - The price of Brent crude oil rose to $115 per barrel, increasing market stagflation concerns. The number of US unemployment insurance continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, and the number of initial claims was 210,000, showing that the employment market maintains resilience [79]. - Bank reserves fell to $3 trillion, the TGA account balance fell to $837.4 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale rose to $1 billion. The inter - bank market liquidity remains tight. The credit spreads of high - yield and investment - grade corporate bonds slightly declined, and the bond market is under pressure. The market has dispelled the expectation of rate cuts this year and is starting to price in the possibility of rate hikes [87]. - The US February non - farm employment unexpectedly weakened, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The inflation decline still faces significant resistance, and there is a greater risk of future inflation rebound [90]. Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - Policies to improve and stabilize the real - estate market are expected to be continuously introduced, but it is still unclear how to improve expectations under the pressure of residents' income. The real - estate market's recovery is still uncertain [97]. - As of March 27, the R001, DR001, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.39%, 1.32%, 1.32%, and 1.43%, respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.94 trillion yuan, less than last week [100]. - China's economic data in the first two months generally exceeded market expectations, with the "troika" of the economy (consumption, investment, and exports) all showing positive performance. However, the export uncertainty has increased due to the US - Iran war, and domestic demand still requires continuous policy support [101]. - The February PPI and CPI both rebounded. Input factors and the release of residents' consumption demand during the Spring Festival jointly led to price increases. The impact of the war on inflation is significant [116]. - The cumulative export growth rate from January to February was 21.8%, and the cumulative import growth rate was 19.8%, both exceeding expectations. The global manufacturing PMI increased, and China's exports to major economies generally rose [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Pulp [1] - **Neutral**: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Diesel, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Methanol, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping on the Europe route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The external shocks on the stock index remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity due to changes in the US attitude and the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the long - term, the stock index is still optimistic. [1] - Treasury bonds are affected by multiple factors and will oscillate. [1] - Metal prices are affected by the complex situation in the Middle East, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper and aluminum prices oscillate, while zinc is bearish, and nickel and stainless steel are high - level oscillating. [1] - The prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium oscillate due to the shift of market trading narrative and the uncertain situation in the Middle East. [1] - The prices of industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical factors. [1] - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, consumption, and policies. For example, cotton prices are expected to rise in the long - term, while sugar prices have limited fluctuations. [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with some products facing supply shortages and price fluctuations. [1] - The container shipping on the Europe route is affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock index**: External shocks remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. In the long - term, it is still optimistic. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintains an oscillating trend due to the complex situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations intensify, and there are low - buying opportunities. [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the oversupply pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: Bearish due to weak fundamentals, and the reversal depends on European natural gas prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level, affected by policies and macro - emotions. Short - term low - buying is recommended. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillates, and short - term low - buying opportunities should be focused on. [1] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to potential production impacts. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Prices may oscillate in the short - term due to the upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and the inventory is being reduced. [1] - **Polycrystalline silicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Affected by factors such as demand and raw material disturbances. [1] Industrial products - **Rebar**: The price is mainly supported by cost, and it is treated as an oscillating market. [1] - **Hot rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it is in the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to operate with an oscillating idea and consider positive arbitrage. [1] - **Iron ore**: The price oscillates at a high level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. [1] - **Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Bullish due to short - term supply - demand growth and cost support. [1] - **Glass and Soda ash**: Oscillate, and soda ash follows the trend of glass. [1] - **Coking coal**: There is a risk of a sharp rise and fall, and attention should be paid to the development of the war. [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The far - month prices are expected to rise due to high oil prices and increased quotas. [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the inventory is tightening, and domestic prices are expected to rise in the long - term. [1] - **Sugar**: The supply is abundant, and the price has limited fluctuations. [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, but the decline range is limited. [1] - **Soybeans**: It is recommended to wait for the callback to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts. [1] - **Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. [1] - **Logs**: Bullish due to the rise in the external market price. [1] Energy and chemical products - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Prices are affected by the Middle East situation, with supply concerns and negotiation information disturbances. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively weak, and it is affected by the price of crude oil. [1] - **BR rubber**: The price has an upward space, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. [1] - **PTA**: The Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price rises due to raw material shortages. [1] - **Short fiber**: The price fluctuates with the cost. [1] - **Methanol**: The export is affected, but the domestic supply is abundant. [1] - **PP, PVC, Caustic soda**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and supply - demand fundamentals. [1] - **LPG**: The price is affected by multiple factors, with internal and external market differentiation. [1] Others - **Container shipping on the Europe route**: Affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies, with a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market fluctuated downward before the Spring Festival due to limited macro - level support, high iron ore inventory, and high coking coal imports. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound in the black - related market. Currently, steel is in the de - stocking phase, with overall inventory normal but high in East China and high warehouse receipts. If demand does not recover beyond the seasonal norm, it may put pressure on the market [2]. - For the second - quarter market, there is suppression from the steel's own supply - demand situation, and there is also the real pressure of continuous increase in overall raw material supply. Support mainly comes from the uncertainty of raw materials. Overall volatility may be relatively limited, and the downward space at the current position is greater than the upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first quarter, the steel market first declined and then rose. As of March 27, the quarterly lines of the 05 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils were basically flat, with a quarterly fluctuation range of less than 200 yuan/ton. The raw material end had relatively larger fluctuations, with the main iron ore contract rising 2.9% quarterly, coke rising 3.5%, and coking coal rising 9.3% [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the market fluctuated downward. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and the M1 - M2 spread rose again but remained in the negative range. - The growth rate of social financing continued to decline, and the spread between social financing and M2 remained in the negative range, indicating that social investment willingness was still low [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In February, the CPI was 1.3% and the PPI was - 0.9%. - The manufacturing PMI in February was 49, a 0.3 - point decrease from the previous month. - Prices were generally recovering moderately, deflation pressure was gradually easing, and the manufacturing prosperity was still average [12]. 3.4 Steel Monthly Data - In 2025, the crude steel output was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the pig iron output decreased by 3% year - on - year [13]. 3.5 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of March 27, 2026, the total output of the five - major steel products was 839,580 tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%. The total consumption was 888,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.29%. The total inventory was 1.898 million tons, a decrease of 48,390 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - After the Two Sessions, steel mills entered the resumption phase, but the current output of the five - major steel products is still lower than the same period in previous years, which may reflect the structural changes in steel products in recent years [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Steel mills generally maintained positive profits, with rebar profits better than hot - rolled coil profits, especially in North China. - The profit of electric arc furnaces using off - peak electricity fluctuated around the break - even line in the new year and is currently in a state of slight profit [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - The overall demand for the five - major steel products has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period last year, mainly contributed by cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. The sales volume of building materials is still at a low level [36]. 3.9 Real Estate - From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 23.1% [42]. - Since 2026, the sales of commercial housing and land transactions have remained weak. The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing is 17%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 4.6% [45]. 3.10 Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. - From January to February 2026, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4%, and manufacturing investment growth was 3.1% [50]. 3.11 Steel Export - In 2025, steel exports reached 119 million tons, the highest in history. - From January to February 2026, steel exports were 15.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The steel export license system will restrict the practice of buying export orders, and steel exports may face a phased reduction [64]. 3.12 Steel Inventory - Rebar inventory is normal overall, but the inventory in East China is relatively high. - Hot - rolled coil inventory is generally high, and the de - stocking in East China is a bit slow [68][71]. 3.13 Basis and Spread - Rebar basis was high before the Spring Festival and then declined. It is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The high inventory in East China and the general demand recovery speed put pressure on spot de - stocking, and the basis is gradually weakening. The 10 - contract basis will continue to shrink [80]. - Hot - rolled coil basis was strong first and then weak in the first quarter, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range. It is currently at a low level compared to the same period, and the high inventory exerts pressure. The space for further weakening is relatively limited [89]. - Rebar monthly spread maintained a contango structure in the first quarter and strengthened overall. It is currently around - 30. The high inventory in East China may suppress the monthly spread, and the 10 - 1 monthly spread may not strengthen in the short term. There may be a chance of a phased increase after the inventory de - stocking accelerates in the second quarter [94]. - Hot - rolled coil monthly spread strengthened from around - 20 to near 0 in the first quarter. The slow de - stocking of East China's spot will limit the space for the monthly spread to continue strengthening. The 10 - 1 monthly spread of hot - rolled coil strengthened in the first quarter and is currently near par. If it drops below - 20 in the second quarter, a positive arbitrage can be considered [99]. 3.14 Warehouse Receipts - Rebar warehouse receipts have increased rapidly recently, indicating that the spot sales pressure is still large under the positive basis in East China. - Hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts are at the highest level in recent years and are still increasing. It may put pressure on the market after entering the delivery logic [110]. 3.15 Iron Ore and Coking Coal - Since this year, the shipping volume and arrival volume of iron ore have been relatively high, showing a year - on - year increase. - Iron ore inventory increased significantly in the first quarter. Although there has been de - stocking recently, the absolute level is still as high as 170 million tons, the highest in the same period. Among them, the inventory of domestic iron ore is significantly high, reaching 113 million tons [113][116]. - Coking coal production rebounded rapidly after the Spring Festival and has now exceeded the same period last year. Coking coal imports remain at the highest level in the same period [118]. - The total coking coal inventory is similar to the same period last year and has rebounded recently. The upstream mine inventory has decreased recently, indicating that the inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream [120][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the market has shown an overall recovery in risk appetite. However, the sudden escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict at the end of February has changed the market narrative, leading to a shift from betting on economic expansion to trading stagflation expectations [1]. - In the second quarter, the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict will be the core contradiction in global macro - pricing, reversing three major consensuses formed in the market from late 2025 to early 2026. The market may evolve along the main line of "first trading stagflation, then pricing recession" [2]. - Against the backdrop of rising global stagflation risks, China's economic cycle is undergoing a structural reshaping. The second - quarter asset allocation should follow the core principle of "defensive counter - attack" [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Global Macro - environment Analysis - **Core Contradiction**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle - East in the second quarter of 2026 is the most core variable in the global market, reversing three major core expectations at the global macro - level [5][6]. - **Reversal of Three Core Expectations**: - **Fed's interest - rate cut expectation**: It will enter a cooling and observation period in the second quarter due to factors such as the inflation push from the Middle - East conflict, the uncertainty of the Wash hearing, the unmet conditions for rate cuts, and the conflict's underlying logic conflicting with rate - cut demands [7]. - **Global economic growth expectation**: The expectation of smooth global economic growth has been broken. The risk of recession has been fully priced into risk - asset prices and volatility structures [11]. - **US dollar depreciation expectation**: The expectation of a significant and trend - based decline in the US dollar index has failed. The US dollar will enter an oscillatory observation period in the second quarter of 2026 [17]. - **Underlying Logic of the US Initiating the Conflict**: - **Core political goal**: Use a controlled increase in energy prices to replace rate cuts, achieving the core political goals of capital repatriation to the US and propping up the US stock market [21]. - **Geopolitical strategy**: Strengthen energy hegemony, restructure the global supply chain, and lock in key resources [22]. - **Political appeal**: Transfer domestic contradictions and consolidate the political base [24]. - **Global power - politics layout**: Force European allies to take sides, strengthen NATO's control, and complete the global power - politics layout [25]. - **Analysis of the Conflict's Evolution Rhythm**: - **Expected rhythm**: The US may expect the conflict to intensify in March, leading to a rise in oil prices and a general adjustment of risk assets. In April - May, after achieving phased results, it will withdraw strategically, guiding oil prices to decline moderately [36]. - **Adjustment of judgment**: The time window for the end of the war is adjusted to "May - June" or "before summer", with corresponding probability weights of 30% for ending before the end of April, 40% for ending in May - June, and 30% for continuing after summer [39]. - **Analysis of Supply - shock Reversibility under Different War Durations**: - **Short - term war scenario**: If the war ends before the end of April, the energy supply shock can be mostly repaired through post - war production capacity catch - up, with the annual net loss of crude - oil supply controlled within 300 - 500 million barrels, accounting for 0.8% - 1.2% of global annual consumption [39]. - **Long - term war scenario**: If the war lasts for more than 3 months, the annual crude - oil supply loss will be in the "irreparable" range, and a significant demand destruction may occur, leading to a global economic recession [40]. - **Analysis of Asset Performance under Different War Scenarios**: - **Scenario 1**: If the war ends before the end of April, the supply shock is "pulse - type". Asset prices will quickly return to the pre - conflict logic. Crude - oil prices will decline, gold will face a short - term correction, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen, the US stock market will rebound, the US dollar index will fall, and emerging markets and the Chinese market will experience a valuation repair [54]. - **Scenario 2**: If the war lasts for more than 2 months, the supply shock will become "persistent". The market will enter stagflation trading and then switch to recession pricing. Crude - oil prices will rise, gold will enter a bull market, the US Treasury yield curve will flatten or deepen the inversion, the US stock market will face a "double - kill" of earnings and valuation, the US dollar will first rise and then fall, and emerging markets will be severely differentiated [56]. Chapter 3: Inflection - point Signals of the Global Asset - pricing Anchor - **Core Driver of the Abnormal Movement of the 2 - year US Treasury Yield**: It is driven by the "war - energy - inflation - policy expectation" vicious transmission chain triggered by the US - Israel - Iran war since February 2026, showing a typical "spontaneous interest - rate hike" [66]. - **Second - quarter Trend Judgment**: The 2 - year US Treasury yield is likely to show a trend of "inertial upward rush - high - level topping - inflection - point confirmation", with the main fluctuation range between 3.50% - 4.20%, and may challenge the previous high of 5.0% in an extreme stagflation scenario [69]. - **Core Observation Nodes and Defensive Position - layout Strategies**: - **Three key verification nodes**: April 6th is the core geopolitical window; mid - to late April is the data - verification period; May - June is the top - confirmation period [75]. - **Defensive position - layout strategies**: In the first half of April, hedge against risks by underweighting or shorting high - valuation growth stocks, optional consumer stocks, and cyclical varieties, shorting industrial metals and black - series varieties, and going long on the US dollar index. After late April, go long on 2 - year/5 - year US Treasury futures, gold, and short commodity - linked currencies, and gradually take profits on the US dollar long position. Also, configure long positions in crude oil and inflation - protected bonds to hedge against extreme scenarios [79]. Chapter 4: Domestic Macro - environment Analysis - **Three Fundamental Reshaping Trends of the Domestic Economic Cycle**: - **Economic growth smoothing**: The dominance of aggregate demand has shifted from the private sector to the government sector, and fiscal policy has become the dominant force in economic fluctuations [82]. - **Structural supply surplus**: The traditional price - transmission logic has failed, and it is difficult to start an inflation cycle due to the low utilization rate of industrial production capacity [83]. - **Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies**: Fiscal policy has become the core variable in money supply and credit expansion, suppressing the cyclical fluctuations of the economy [83]. - **Impact of the US - Israel - Iran Conflict on the Domestic Economy**: - **Analysis of two mainstream narratives**: The view that the energy - supply shock will bring substantial benefits to the Chinese economy and that PPI turning positive will reverse the deflation pattern is inaccurate. Cost - push inflation cannot reverse deflation but may intensify stagflation risks [88][93]. - **Analysis of corporate profit and inflation**: Only demand - driven inflation can improve corporate profits and break the deflation cycle, while cost - push inflation will squeeze corporate profits and strengthen the deflationary negative cycle [95][101]. - **The 15th Five - Year Plan Outline**: - **Core strategic anchor**: It is the core strategic anchor for the long - term pricing of the Chinese capital market, with a clear causal - transmission chain from policy text to industrial supply - demand to asset pricing [107]. - **Investment guidance effectiveness**: There is a clear ranking of sector heterogeneity in the guidance effectiveness of the plan. The full - cycle core investment main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan are highly focused, and the annual core strategy is "defensive counter - attack" [108]. Chapter 5: Asset - allocation Strategy for the Second Quarter of 2026 - **Core strategy**: The market's core main line in the second quarter of 2026 is "first trading stagflation, then turning to recession pricing". The overall strategy is based on "defensive counter - attack". In the first half of April, focus on risk hedging and defensive layout. After late April, if the signal of demand contraction is confirmed, carry out a counter - attack layout around the recession - trading main line and the industrial main lines of the 15th Five - Year Plan [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are in a sideways consolidation on the weekly line. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - Polysilicon futures are in a downward channel on the weekly line, and the price is close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [27][29]. - Lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range volatile operation. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 200,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The industrial silicon futures are in a sideways consolidation on the weekly line. The spot price of industrial silicon was stable last week. As of March 27, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton. The main force has a relatively obvious bearish attitude [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The industrial silicon futures are in an oscillating operation. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [11][13][16]. 3.2 Polysilicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The polysilicon futures are in a downward channel on the weekly line. The spot price of polysilicon decreased last week. As of March 27, the price of polysilicon (compact material) was 39 yuan/kg, and the price of polysilicon (re - feed material) was 41 yuan/kg. The main force has no obvious long or short bias [27][29]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon futures are in a downward channel, and the price is close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [32][33][38]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range volatile operation. The spot price of lithium carbonate increased slightly last week. As of March 27, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 154,250 yuan/ton, and the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 157,350 yuan/ton. The main force shows a strong bearish sentiment [44][45]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures have a relatively large fluctuation range. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 200,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [48][49][54].