交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量 2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部2月25/26年度：产量664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万 吨。偏多。 6：预期：昨日郑棉冲高回落，短期利多集中体现，盘面存在有调整需求。基本面看，美国关 税有所下调， ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 今 日 发 现 人民币汇率创三年新高，定价未现极端偏离 观点分享： 节后首周，人民币对美元汇率延续节前偏强走势。2 月 26 日，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘 中升破 6.84 关口，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破 6.83 关口，均刷新 2023 年 4 月以来高点。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛分析称，近期人民币对美元升值加速主要有以下支撑因素： 第一，1 月中旬以来美元指数冲高回落，延续了 2025 年开启的弱势调整；第二，当地时间 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，美国被迫以 15%的进口附加 税替代对等关税和芬太尼关税，有助于降低对华关税水平，强化市场对中国出口韧性的预 期；第三，前期国内企业持有大量美元多头，近期人民币升值引发美元多头回撤，市场结汇 盘增加，反过来推动人民币进一步升值；第四，全国两会召开在即，市场对于利好政策有所 憧憬。另外，中美经贸关系回稳及我国整体外部环境改善，美联储独立性屡屡受到冲击等因 素，也是近段时间人民币对美元汇率走强的重要背景。对于后市，管涛 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-27 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 2025/7/1 2025/10/1 2026/1/1 坐标轴标题 U R期现价格及基差 基差 主力收盘 现货 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需 ...

金融研究 2026年2月27日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：2 月 26 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.01%，报收 4146.63 点；深成 指上涨 0.19%，报收 14503.79 点；创业板指下跌 0.29%，报收 3344.98 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.85%， 报收 1485.86 点。市场成交 25,566 亿元，较前日增加 757 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+2.84%)，电 子(+1.98%)，国防军工(+1.52%)表现较好；房地产(-2.25%)，传媒(-1.45%)，非银金融(-1.42%)表现 一般。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,482/131/2,866。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-107、-193、88、213 亿元，分别变动-167、-18、+170、+15 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 92.42、42.22、20.27 与-1.33 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.56%、-3.43%、-2.98%与 0.3%，三年期历史分位 ...

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，关注市场情绪变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游复产情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交 | 6 | 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,040 | -210 | 5,850 | 9,200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续增加，限制价格回升 | 5 | | 锌：关注地缘扰动 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：供应压力未缓解 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：箱体震荡 | 13 | | 钯：高频数据偏弱 | 13 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 15 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，关注市场情绪变化 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注上游复产情况 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：板块情绪扰动，价格宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：南非矿产税务信息扰动，资金低位拉涨 | 24 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 26 | ...

2026年02月27日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：昨日贵金属继续震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 | | | | | | 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国 | | | 5184 | | | | | | | | | 0.38%至 | | 金 | 际银价跌 美元/盎司。 | 1.01%至 | 88.272 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 基本面：英伟达年报业绩未能缓解市场担忧，股票大跌 | | | | 5%，拖累纳斯达克表现，不过 | | | | | | | | 年报显示业绩良 | | | DELL | | | | | | 好，盘后大涨；美联储理事米兰周四重申，尽管劳动力市场改善，仍预计 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 短期区间交易，关注 98000-106000 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | 24600 | 24525 | 24650 | 24400 | -60 | -0.24 | 18938 | -7662 | | 沪锌 | 2604 | ...