11月下旬，彭博社和路透社接连发表了题为"抛售日本"的文章，提及日本的财政困境。日本政府的债务规模目 前已超国内生产总值（GDP）的200%，在发达国家中最为严重。 "都给我闭嘴！把钱都投到我这儿来！"在12月1日东京举行的国际投资会议上，日本首相高市早苗援引了动漫 《进击的巨人》中主角的一句台词。报道称，虽然她的本意是鼓励对日投资，但鉴于当前形势，这番话也存在 被错误解读的风险。 据参考消息援引《日本经济新闻》网站12月2日报道，日本央行行长植田和男1日强烈暗示将于12月加息，当天 日经指数应声下跌近1000点，随后开市的美股同样延续震荡行情。 百万用户都在看 美国战斗机，紧急出动！ 超级赛道，重磅定调！ 深夜，集体大涨！芯片，重大利好传来！ 盘中，集体涨停！利好，突然引爆！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 看券商中国 知天下财经 用 券中社 12 券商中国 × 券 中 社 扫码关注券商中国公众号 扫码下载 券 中 社 A P P quanshangcn 舞#t 券中社APP qzs.stcn.com 券 商 中 国 是 证 券 市 场 权 威 媒 体 《 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China's financial system to transition from real estate finance to movable asset finance, driven by the shift in economic development from traditional factor-driven models to innovation-driven models during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Transition and Financial System Challenges - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the financial system explored ways to improve the market-oriented allocation of factors and promote the development of innovative factors, but it still faces challenges in serving new asset types [2][4]. - The transition to an innovation-driven economy will require financial institutions to adapt their service models to support new asset structures, focusing on technology, data, and green resources [5][6]. Group 2: New Asset Characteristics and Financial Service Requirements - New factors and assets are characterized by intangibility, high liquidity, and value increment, which pose challenges for traditional financial service models based on collateral and stable cash flows [7][8]. - The financial system must develop new service models that cater to movable asset characteristics, addressing the difficulties in rights confirmation, valuation, pricing, and investment [8][9]. Group 3: Current Challenges in Financial Services for New Factors - The financial system faces three main challenges: difficulty in incorporating new factors into financial statements, challenges in valuation due to lack of stable cash flows, and investment difficulties stemming from differing investor logic [8][9][10]. - New factors struggle with rights confirmation and accounting, as existing frameworks do not adequately address the unique characteristics of technology and data assets [9][10]. Group 4: Strategies for Financial Service Improvement - Financial institutions should enhance their capabilities in confirming rights and integrating new assets into financial statements, developing modern accounting systems that reflect the changes brought by technological and green transformations [16][17]. - A multi-dimensional evaluation framework should be established to improve the valuation and pricing capabilities for new factors and assets, involving industry experts and investment institutions [18][19]. - The construction of a unified national market for movable assets should be prioritized to facilitate the trading and circulation of new factors, enhancing market efficiency [20][21]. Group 5: Investment Tools and Financial Product Innovation - There is a need to diversify investment tools for movable assets, encouraging the development of patient capital and innovative financial products that align with the risk-return characteristics of new factors [23][24]. - Financial institutions should innovate their service models to better support the development of new factors, focusing on long-term investment strategies and enhancing risk management capabilities [25].

这就是所谓的"日元套利交易"，当日本突然说要加息，整个逻辑瞬间反转：借 来源：华尔街情报圈 12月第一个交易日，全球市场收到"警告"： - 美元跌了，股市跌了，债市跌了，加密货币更是直接闪崩，一天蒸发近 10 亿美元的杠杆仓位，比特 币一度跌破关键的 8.5 万美元——这一波"跳水"直接把市场情绪打回了谨慎模式。 -与此同时，黄金冲高回落，收盘基本持平。几乎看不到什么上涨的资产。 为什么突然怕了？ 起因源自日本，日本央行突然暗示12月将会加息。日本国债大跌，2年期日债收益率自2008年以来首次 升至1%，随后影响外溢，美债收益率又悄悄回到 4.1% 上方。 过去几年，很多全球资金的玩法是这样：借日本的低息日元 → 换成美元 → 买美股、加密货币、高风险 资产 钱的成本要上升 → 汇率可能不利 → 杠杆必须平仓 → 最先砸的，一定是高风险资产（如果日本要加 息，借日元就不划算了，甚至要平仓，那大量杠杆资金就得撤离）。 昨天这个链条上的资产全部都跌了——这不是危机，而是一次连锁踩刹车。本来大家在跳舞，结果隔壁 突然打碎一个杯子，还顺带说可能要关灯了，全场气氛都变了。 经过昨天的下跌，美联储主席的人选又面临变数—— ...

用左侧的理性战胜右侧的感性，不是用左侧的理性去逆大势、去猜顶、去抄底，而是在顺大势的前提下，用左侧的理性战胜市场反复时的摇摆。 央行公开市场开展1076亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3387亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2311亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.31%附近，DR007在1.46%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 01 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.37 | -5 | 5 | 1.80 | 0 | 68611. 21 | 16215. 30 | 89.92 | | R007 | 1.49 | -3 | ar | 1.80 | 0 | 6802. 98 | 2032. 19 | 8.92 | | ...

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline on December 1, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2%, making it one of the most notable downturns in the Asia-Pacific market for the day [1] - Market expectations regarding a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy rapidly increased, serving as a direct catalyst for the stock market's sharp decline [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank would weigh the pros and cons of raising policy rates at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 19, suggesting a potential end to ultra-loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Concurrently with the stock market decline, the Japanese government bond market faced large-scale sell-offs, with the 2-year Japanese government bond yield surpassing 1% for the first time since 2008 [2] - The 5-year and 10-year government bond yields rose to 1.35% and 1.85%, respectively, marking new highs since 2008, indicating accelerated selling by investors [2] - The Japanese government announced a comprehensive economic stimulus package worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen, with a significant portion of the funding coming from a supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025 [2]

基金、券商共振抛券 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 2025-11-24 2、《债基久期再回落》2025-11-20 3 、 《 震 荡 行 情 下 的 机 构 行 为 》 2025-11-16 分析师：严伶怡 本周（11.24-11.28）关注要点：本周资金利率分化，大行融出日均环比增加，基金小 幅降杠杆；存单到期减少，存单到期收益率曲线走陡；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自 大行，增持 1-3Y 利率债为主，基金、券商是主要抛盘，其中基金主要卖出 7-10Y 和 20-30Y 利率债，保险继续增配 20-30Y 超长利率债。 货币资金面 同业存单与票据 机构行为跟踪 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 联系人：苏鸿婷 相关报告 1、《资金波动，大行融出下行》 本周（11.24-11.28，下同）共有 16760 亿 ...

今日（1日），日本央行行长植田和男上午发表讲话后，其内容将市场对12月政策转向的猜测推向了 高潮。 本文字数：1957，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 随着日元疲软加剧，以及高市早苗政府对弱日元的容忍度下降，市场上周开始对日本央行加息预期大 幅回升。 2025.12. 01 植田和男讲话后，美元对日元走低至155.60，上周曾一度升至156.18高位，已超过通常的"干预"预 警水平155。日本东证指数涨幅扩大至1%。10年期日本国债收益率上升5个基点至1.85%，续创 2008年6月以来最高。30年期国债日本收益率也上升5个基点至3.385%。两年期日本国债收益率也 自2008年来首次触及1.00%大关。 富达国际全球多元资产主管奎菲（Matthew Quaife）上周接受一财记者专访时曾表示，日本仍可能 是2026年的一个好的投资故事，"我们最看好日本中盘股，因为相关上市企业更倾向于日本国内市 场。日本新政府即将实施的一系列政策对经济非常友好。当这种情况发生时，中盘股往往跑赢大 盘。" 但他也提示，投资日本眼下确实也存在一些风险，比如30年期日债持续呈现上升趋势。 图源：日本央行官网 植田和 ...

在 2025 年贵金属市场的火热行情中，白银不再是黄金的 "陪衬"，凭借凌厉的涨势成功逆袭，不仅接连刷新国际、国内多项价格纪录，更以超 95% 的年内累 计涨幅大幅跑赢黄金，稳稳占据贵金属 "领涨王" 宝座。Wind 数据显示，国际市场上，COMEX 白银、伦敦现货白银已分别创下 57.245 美元 / 盎司、56.533 美元 / 盎司的历史新高；国内市场同步走强，沪银期货主力连续合约突破 13000 元 / 千克大关，最高触及 13239 元 / 千克，创下上市以来的峰值表现。 图源网络 复盘全年行情，白银的牛市脉络清晰且爆发力十足。10 月 9 日晚间，现货白银迎来历史性突破，盘中首次站上 50 美元 / 盎司关口；涨势延续至 10 月 17 日，冲高至 54.468 美元 / 盎司后进入高位震荡阶段，期间曾一度回调至 45.513 美元 / 盎司。11 月起，白银重拾上涨动能，从 48 美元 / 盎司一线震荡攀升， 再度突破 50 美元关口并触及 54.394 美元，经过短暂整理后，于 11 月 28 日迎来关键突破，当日最大涨幅超 6%，成功站上 56 美元 / 盎司整数关口，触及 56.533 美 ...

刚刚，日本3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，10年期国债收益率一度达到了1.85%，各期限国债全线暴涨， 这对应的就是日本国债的全线暴跌。与此同时，美股期指全线杀跌，日经指数大幅跳水。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，可能与日本息口和美联储的异动有关。日本央行行长植田和男 表示，将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。而关于美联储主席人事问题亦被市场关注， 甚至再度波及美联储的独立性。 全线崩跌 日本国债市场掀起大浪。该国3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，对应的是其国债暴跌。日本10年期国债收 益率上升5个基点至1.85%。日本2年期国债收益率升至2008年以来最高水平。与此同时，日经指数一度 暴跌近2%。 （原标题：刚刚全线暴跌！黑天鹅突袭！日本国债又崩了 冲击有多大？） 日本国债又崩了！ 掉期市场当前预计日本央行在12月19日公布政策决定时加息的可能性约为62%，到2026年1月的会议上 这一可能性将升至近90%，而两周前市场预计12月加息的可能性仅为30%。 此外，日本财务省计划增加短期债务发行，为日本首相高市早苗的经济刺激方案筹集资金，其中2年期 和5年期国债各增加3000亿日元（约19.2亿美元） ...

Group 1: Key Factors Influencing the Bond Market - The ongoing bull market in A-shares is expected to continue exerting pressure on the bond market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 28% since April 8, 2025, reaching a high of 4034 points on November 14, 2025 [2][3] - New tax regulations and redemption fee rules are anticipated to negatively impact the bond market, as the reintroduction of VAT on interest income from newly issued bonds increases costs for investors [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may open up monetary easing space in China, but the benefits for the bond market are expected to be limited due to a preference for equities among foreign investors [9][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The real estate market's downturn and historically low bank deposit rates are driving residents to shift their savings into the stock market, with a total reduction of 2.34 trillion yuan in household deposits from July to October 2025 [3][6] - The new regulations on redemption fees for funds are likely to increase short-term costs for bond investors, potentially leading to a shift in investment strategies towards direct bond purchases rather than bond funds [7][8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading to guide the yield curve, with net purchases of 20 billion yuan in October 2025, although this is significantly lower than previous months [11][13] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The economic fundamentals in China are expected to remain weak, with October data showing lower-than-expected export, production, and investment figures, leading to a potential need for further interest rate cuts [10][13] - The PBOC's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading, aim to stabilize the bond market and mitigate rising yield pressures, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield will struggle to fall below 1.6% [11][13] - Overall, the bond market is likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation in yields due to the interplay of supportive monetary policy and ongoing pressures from the equity market [13]