三部门发文 债券回购是金融机构之间以债券为标的的短期资金融通行为，也是国际上应用最广泛的流动性管理工具 之一。记者了解到，公告发布后，银行间债券市场的境外机构投资者均可参与债券回购业务，包括通过 直接入市和"债券通"渠道入市的全部境外机构投资者。境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务，将采取国际 市场通行做法，实现标的债券过户和可使用。 近年来，中国人民银行有序推动银行间债券市场债券回购业务对外开放。自2015年起，支持境外主权类 机构、境外人民币业务清算行和境外参加行在银行间市场开展债券回购业务，2025年与香港金管局共同 推出以"债券通"北向通债券为标的的离岸回购业务。 截至2025年8月末，共有来自80个国家和地区的1170家境外机构进入中国债券市场，持债总量约4万亿元 人民币。 [ 责编：金昱希 ] 支持境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务 本报北京9月28日电（记者徐佩玉）中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局近日联合发布公告，支持 可在中国债券市场开展债券现券交易的境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued an announcement to further support foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the interbank bond market [1] Group 1: Background and Market Context - The announcement was made in response to the increasing attractiveness and international influence of China's bond market, with 1,170 foreign institutions from 80 countries holding approximately 4 trillion RMB in bonds as of August 2025 [2] - China's bonds have been included in major international bond indices, and there is a growing demand for foreign investors to manage liquidity through bond repurchase transactions [2] Group 2: Participants in the Bond Repurchase Market - All foreign institutional investors in the interbank bond market can participate in bond repurchase transactions, including central banks, international financial organizations, sovereign wealth funds, commercial banks, insurance companies, and various asset management institutions [3] Group 3: Transaction Methods - The bond repurchase transactions will adopt international market practices, allowing for the transfer and use of pledged bonds, which aligns with the trading habits of foreign investors and enhances overall market liquidity [4] Group 4: Risk Management Measures - The announcement emphasizes a balanced approach to openness and security, with measures in place for transaction, custody, settlement, and foreign exchange processes to ensure closed-loop fund management and enhanced regulatory oversight [5] Group 5: Fund Management Requirements - Foreign institutional investors must adhere to specific fund and account management regulations when conducting bond repurchase transactions, following existing guidelines and announcements from the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange [6]

9月26日，中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇管理局联合发布关于进一步支持境外机构投资者在中 国债券市场开展债券回购业务的公告（以下简称《公告》）。三部门表示，进一步支持各类境外机构投 资者开展债券回购业务，不仅有利于满足市场需求，进一步增强人民币债券资产吸引力，也有利于优化 合格境外投资者制度，巩固提升香港国际金融中心地位，助力在岸离岸人民币市场协同发展。 推动债市高水平对外开放 债券回购是金融机构之间以债券为标的的短期资金融通行为，是国际上应用最广泛的流动性管理工具之 一。 据了解，近年来，我国债券市场的吸引力和国际影响力持续提升。数据显示，截至2025年8月末，来自 80多个国家和地区的1170家境外机构，在中国债券市场持债约4万亿元人民币；2025年1—8月，境外机 构投资者的债券现券成交规模约11.8万亿元人民币，其中债券通北向通规模约7.2万亿元人民币，南北双 向交易投资持续活跃。 互换通方面，截至2025年8月末，互换通累计成交1.5万多笔，累计成交名义本金约8.2万亿元人民币，当 前成交规模较上线初期增长了9倍多。 2015年起，境外主权类机构、境外人民币业务清算行和境外参加行三类机构可以在银 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term hold on U.S. stocks, benefiting from potential Fed rate cuts and economic growth, with a projected increase of approximately 3% in the S&P 500 index by year-end and about 9% over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to tariffs and delayed fiscal stimulus, but a rebound is anticipated in 2026, driven by productivity improvements, particularly in the tech sector [1][4]. - The report highlights that non-farm business productivity has rebounded to 2%, with AI expected to gradually enhance overall economic productivity over the next five years [1][5]. - Despite weak labor market data, GDP growth is projected to remain resilient, primarily due to productivity gains rather than labor growth [4][9]. - The report indicates that nominal yields around 5% may pose structural resistance to GDP growth, but economic growth can still be sustained without rising inflation [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The third-quarter GDP growth is estimated at 2.2%, with weak labor market data [1][4]. - The economy is expected to rebound in 2026 as tariff impacts diminish and fiscal policies take effect [1][4]. Labor Market and Productivity - Current employment growth is strong, but the economy is experiencing polarization, with the Fed focusing on labor market conditions and inflation [1][6]. - Productivity improvements are a key highlight, with non-farm business productivity increasing from 1.5% to 2% [4][5]. Stock Market Predictions - Earnings are expected to drive stock prices higher, with the S&P 500 index projected to reach approximately 6,800 points by year-end and 7,200 points in 12 months [10]. - The report recommends focusing on high floating-rate debt companies and economically sensitive small and mid-cap stocks [12][13]. AI and Investment Themes - AI remains a favored investment theme, with a focus on companies that can achieve short-term revenue growth from AI advancements [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring capital expenditure growth among major players, particularly in AI infrastructure [14][15]. China Economic Insights - Despite weak data in July and August, China's GDP growth is still around 5%, driven by production metrics [3][16]. - The Chinese stock market has shown strong performance, with further upside potential anticipated due to limited investment options for households [17]. Future Expectations - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to emphasize innovation and security, with potential high growth targets set by the government [18][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The central bank's supportive attitude towards liquidity will be maintained, and the loose state will effectively support the bond yield to fluctuate at the bottom of the box. The report maintains the judgment that the top of the 10-year Treasury bond yield this year is 1.85% [1][17] - The long - end of US bonds fluctuates between 4 - 4.5%, the short - end is easy to decline but difficult to rise, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [2] - The US economy is still in an expansion state, but actual demand may be insufficient, and economic growth is slowing down. The labor market has not fundamentally improved, and the Fed's理事鲍曼 calls for a firm interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [21][24][27] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One - week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: This week (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.26), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp from 1.795% last Friday to 1.799%. The central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation was discontinuous, but the open - market operation maintained a net investment, and the MLF was over - renewed by 300 billion yuan, indicating support for liquidity [1][12][17] - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's interest rate cut "boot landed" last week, the yield curve steepened rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate reached 3.8%, but the manufacturing and service PMI in September decreased. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, but the labor market has not fundamentally improved. Fed理事鲍曼 called for an interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [2][21][24] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The open - market operations from 2025/09/22 - 2025/09/26 are detailed, with a total net investment of 940.6 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds in two weeks are also analyzed [32] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rates, balance - treasure yields, vegetable price indices, commodity price indices, and the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are presented. The performance of various overseas indices and the yield changes of US bonds are also shown [59][60][72] 3. One - week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 78 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 196.051 billion yuan, a net financing of 122.461 billion yuan. The main investment directions are comprehensive, strategic development, and urban - rural infrastructure construction. 12 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and 2 provinces issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts [79][84][85] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 53.44 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 47.4454 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.89%. The top three provinces with active trading are Guangdong, Shandong, and Hunan, and the top three active trading maturities are 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [94] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and regions from 2025/9/29 to 2025/10/3 are presented [98] 4. One - week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 418 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 435.522 billion yuan, a total repayment of 358.923 billion yuan, and a net financing of 76.599 billion yuan, an increase of 9.68 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 23.029 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 99.627 billion yuan [99][100] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week are provided, with different changes in the interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds [111] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of each type of credit bond this week is detailed, with a total trading volume of 633.982 billion yuan [114] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of various bonds such as 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y national development bonds, and the yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all showed certain changes this week [116][118][119][120] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all widened this week [124][126][131] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends, with the grade spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowing [136][140][143] 4.7 Trading Activity - No specific content provided 4.8 Subject Rating Changes - No specific content provided

本文字数：1911，阅读时 2025.09.28 长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 日前，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度（总第110次）例会召开。总体看，会议在货币政 策基调方面与7月政治局会议的要求相同。 同时，在经济形势、货币政策操作、经济目标等方面的表述也存在一些微调。例如，从"保持经济稳定 增长和物价处于合理水平"转变为"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，从"保持"转变为"促进"， 表明对经济增长和物价处于合理水平的诉求更为强烈。 在外部环境更趋复杂严峻、国内经济面临需求不足与物价低位运行挑战的背景下，本次例会在形势判 断、政策基调及重点领域支持等方面的表述调整，既呼应了当前经济运行特点，也为后续政策走向提供 了清晰指引。 重在推进已出台政策落实落细 三季度例会在货币政策基调上与7月政治局会议的要求相同，均强调"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"。 与上个季度例会内容相比，一些表述出现微调。 | | 二季度 | 三季度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济形势 | 经济呈现向好态势,社会信 | 经济运行稳中有进,社会信心 | | | 心持续提振,高质量发展扎 | 持续 ...

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 前几天，最新的社融数据出炉了，其中一个最值得大家留意的数据是存款数据。 最新8月份的数据显示： 8月份东大新增企业存 款2997亿元，同比少增503亿元； 新增的居民存款1100亿元，同比去年少增6000 亿 元。 而在此之前的 7月， 居民存款存量大概是 1.11万亿元 ，同比多减7800亿元。 在银行存款不断下跌、资金显著流出的同时，非银行业金融机构，比如券商、基金、保险公司这 些机构的存款，则在显著增长。 因为从数据上看， 这一轮资金转移并没有盲目涌向高风险的领域，而是更多流向相对稳健的理 财、债基产品。 8月份， 非银存款增加了 1.18万亿元 ，同比多增5500亿元。 7月份非银机构的存款增加额更是高达 2.14万亿元 。 今年前8个月，非银存款累计新增达到了 5.87万亿元 ，创下了历史同期的新高。 大量存款离开银行存款，流向券商、基金这些机构，说明什么？ 说明随着大A资本市场的热度提升， 资金正在不断挪动转场进入资本市场，大规模的存款搬家已 经开始了。 而且不仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "9·24" policy has not only boosted stock market indices and market capitalization but also significantly impacted household finances, leading to a shift in wealth from traditional bank deposits to investment markets [1][9]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - A new wave of "deposit migration" appears to be underway, driven by declining interest rates and a shift in investment preferences among residents [3][6]. - As of August 2025, the balance of RMB deposits reached 322.73 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 9.77 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits surged by 5.87 trillion yuan [3][4]. - In August, household deposits saw a net increase of only 110 billion yuan, a decrease of 600 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant shift in fund allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has entered a bullish phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 14% since the beginning of the year, and total A-share market capitalization exceeding 104 trillion yuan [4][9]. - The average daily trading volume has surpassed 1.64 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity and investor interest [4][9]. - The number of new stock accounts opened has doubled month-on-month, with 2.64 million new personal stock accounts in August alone, marking a 165.57% year-on-year increase [10]. Group 3: Factors Driving Change - The decline in bank deposit interest rates, coupled with rising stock market performance and regulatory policies, has been a significant driver of the current deposit migration trend [6][8]. - Historical patterns show that deposit migration has occurred during periods of low interest rates and strong stock market performance, indicating a shift in investment strategies among residents [6][7]. - The current environment reflects a transition from traditional high-yield bank deposits to more diversified investment products, including stocks and non-bank financial products [5][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming peak of high-yield fixed-term deposits maturing in 2025-2026, combined with ongoing favorable policies for the capital market, suggests that the deposit migration process will continue [13]. - Analysts predict that the strength and duration of this migration will depend on the yield differential between asset management products and new deposits, as well as the overall economic outlook [13][14]. - Financial institutions are advised to adapt their strategies to retain deposits, optimize their funding structures, and enhance customer satisfaction to mitigate the impact of deposit migration [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy meeting indicates a shift towards maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, moving away from aggressive incremental policy implementations [1][6]. Economic Outlook - The meeting acknowledged a complex external environment with weakening global economic growth, increased trade barriers, and uncertain inflation trends, while noting that China's economy is progressing steadily despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][4]. Price Trends - The description of prices changed from "continuously low" to "low," reflecting recent positive signals in price data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after eight months of decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month but showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [4][6]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting emphasized the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies and enhancing the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to support economic stability and reasonable price levels [5][13]. Structural Policy Tools - There is a new focus on using structural monetary policy tools to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a commitment to targeted financial support [10]. Long-term Interest Rates - The meeting continued to highlight the importance of monitoring long-term interest rates, with a consistent approach over the past seven quarters, reflecting ongoing concerns about the bond market dynamics [10][11]. Financial Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the importance of maintaining stability in the foreign exchange, capital, and real estate markets, with specific measures to enhance market resilience and prevent excessive fluctuations [13].

9月26日，中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局联合发布《关于进一步支持境外机构投资者开展债券回 购业务的公告》（下称《公告》），支持各类境外机构投资者在中国债券市场开展债券回购业务。 债券回购是金融机构之间以债券为标的的短期资金融通行为，是国际上应用最广泛的流动性管理工具之一。央 行、外汇局有关负责人指出，《公告》发布后，将进一步满足境外机构投资者通过债券回购开展流动性管理的 需求，促进在岸和离岸金融市场互联互通。业内专家认为，债券回购开放顺应境外机构需求，是中国债券市场 高水平开放的重要里程碑。 综合来看，三部门进一步支持各类境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务，不仅有利于满足市场需求，进一步增强 人民币债券资产吸引力，也有利于优化合格境外投资者制度，巩固提升香港国际金融中心地位，助力在岸离岸 人民币市场协同发展。 银行间债券市场的境外机构投资者均可参与 近年来，央行有序推动银行间债券市场债券回购业务对外开放，自2015年起，支持境外主权类机构、境外人民 币业务清算行和境外参加行在银行间市场开展债券回购业务。今年2月，央行与香港金管局共同推出以"债券 通"项下债券为抵押品的离岸债券回购业务。 本次《公告》进一步 ...