Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - **Important Information**: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - **Related Information**: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - **Related Information**: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - **Important Information**: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - **Important Information**: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - **Important Information**: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum sector is benefiting from the recovery of the copper-aluminum ratio, with pricing logic shifting towards supply tightness due to frequent production cuts in overseas electrolytic aluminum plants, which is expected to drive a revaluation of the sector as emerging industries like AI develop and developed countries face electricity shortages [1][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - The core logic for the valuation recovery in the electrolytic aluminum sector is the transition from a smelting and processing type to a resource-like commodity, with many companies increasing their dividend payout ratios to over 50%, resulting in a significant increase in dividend yield [1][5]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is around 8-9 times, with expectations for recovery to 10-15 times over the next 3-5 years [1][5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio is currently at a historical high of 4.1 times, driven by supply-side changes and improvements in industrial demand, with expectations for normalization in the coming years [1][6][8]. - The supply of scrap metal is insufficient to fully address market shortages due to the lack of recycling from buildings and the rapid price increase of scrap compared to primary metals [1][9]. - The implementation of fair competition regulations has led to reduced tax rebates and subsidies from local governments, increasing profitability pressure and production cuts in the aluminum industry [1][9]. Additional Important Points - Global electricity shortages, particularly in developed countries, pose uncertainties for electrolytic aluminum production, with potential reductions affecting approximately 3 million tons of capacity [1][10]. - Industrial metal demand remains resilient, supported by sectors such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and grid construction, with expectations for a 2-3% growth in the global economy [1][11]. - The aluminum sector currently offers significant investment advantages, including high dividend yields and potential for valuation recovery, with average yields around 4-5% and PE ratios expected to rise [1][12][13]. - Integrated leading companies such as Tianshan, Hongqiao, Hongchuang, and Zhonglv are performing well, with notable dividend yields and growth potential [1][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with continued destocking trends and aluminum prices breaking through 21,000 RMB/ton [1][8] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain stable, supported by ongoing economic growth and a favorable policy environment [13] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [13] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 24, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,856.5 USD/ton, up 315.0 RMB/ton week-on-week, a 1.5% increase [17] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closed at 21,225.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 315.0 RMB/ton [23] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a decrease of 11.8 thousand tons month-on-month [55] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.604 million tons, down 13.5 thousand tons month-on-month [55] 3. Inventory - As of October 23, the national aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 618,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 9,000 tons [9] - The domestic aluminum rod inventory increased to 145,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3,000 tons [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.65 RMB for 2025 [7] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.00 RMB for 2025 [7] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.13 RMB for 2025 [7] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic supply remains stable, while overseas supply disruptions have occurred, such as Century Aluminum's production halt in Iceland [9] - The demand side shows a mixed picture, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, driven by supply disruptions and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [4] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to continuous inventory depletion, while the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [4] - Lithium prices are recovering from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season, with a notable decrease in inventory [4] - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may tighten supply [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the US CPI for September was lower than expected, which may influence market conditions [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the non-ferrous sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index by 1.75 percentage points [11][12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 27.27, with a weekly change of 0.68, while the PB is 3.17, reflecting a 0.09 change [21][24] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.61% in London and 3.95% in Shanghai, with inventories decreasing [26] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.78% in London and 1.14% in Shanghai, with a notable increase in aluminum enterprise profits [36] - Lead and zinc prices also saw increases, with lead prices up by 2.00% and zinc by 2.48% [47] - Lithium prices for lithium carbonate rose by 2.79% to 75,400 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 4.14% to 881 USD/ton [76] - Cobalt prices saw a significant increase, with MB cobalt rising by 7.75% to 22.60 USD/pound [89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina futures stopped falling and fluctuated due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. The spot price continued to decline under the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. Although the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy and the approaching of the current price to most manufacturers' cost - lines may lead to an increase in production cut expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures price**: As of 3 p.m. on October 24, the alumina index rose 0.43% to 2821 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 36,000 lots to 494,000 lots. The basis: the spot price in Shandong was 2800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 1 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts was - 42 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons to 4.69 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 53,000 tons, 10,000 tons, decreased by 28,000 tons, and increased by 16,000 tons respectively. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE totaled 221,300 tons, unchanged from last week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, also unchanged from last week [11][68][71]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline due to continuous inventory accumulation [21]. - **Futures price and basis**: The alumina futures price stopped falling and fluctuated. The basis in Shandong was a premium of 1 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was - 42 yuan/ton [24]. - **Bauxite price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 72.5 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3.3. Supply - side - **Bauxite production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [31]. - **Bauxite import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97% [33]. - **Bauxite inventory**: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 230,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 80,000 tons [40]. - **Alumina production**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. As of October 24, the weekly production was 1.862 million tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [42][43]. - **Alumina plant profit**: The alumina plant profit was under pressure due to the decline in the spot price. On October 24, the production profit in Guangxi was 275 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian ore and Guinea ore was - 15 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively. Inland alumina plants using overseas ore in Shanxi and Henan had turned slightly into losses [46]. - **Alumina import and export**: In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export situation. The import volume decreased from 94,000 tons last month to 60,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 180,500 tons to 246,400 tons. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. As of October 24, the FOB price in Australia decreased by 6 dollars/ton to 314 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 21 yuan/ton [48][50]. - **Overseas alumina production**: In September 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [52]. 3.4. Demand - side - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57]. - **Electrolytic aluminum operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from last month. The operating rate increased by 0.35 percentage points to 97.47% [60]. 3.5. Supply - demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the supply and demand situation from January to December 2025, including the supply - demand difference, total demand, total supply, net export, export volume, import volume, demand for electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity [63]. 3.6. Inventory - **Social inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons to 4.69 million tons this week, with different changes in various types of inventory [68]. - **SHFE inventory**: The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE totaled 221,300 tons, unchanged from last week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, also unchanged from last week [71].

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum Industry held its 18th meeting of the 6th board of directors on October 24, 2025, in Shanghai, where it reviewed the proposal for nominating independent director candidates [1] - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's revenue composition was entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100.0% [1] - As of the report date, Tianshan Aluminum's market capitalization was 62.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A well-known brand spent 170 million yuan to acquire 2,000 shares of a target company with a registered capital of only 10,000 Hong Kong dollars, raising questions about the necessity of the acquisition [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be supported by positive expectations and inventory depletion. For different aluminum - related products, the fundamentals show different characteristics, but generally present a positive outlook. It is recommended to conduct light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum all showed a strong and upward trend. Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.51% to 21,225 yuan/ton, Alumina increased 0.36% to 2,810 yuan/ton, and Cast Aluminum rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Fundamentals**: For electrolytic aluminum, supply may increase slightly, while consumption is strong, and inventory is depleting. For alumina, supply is expected to decrease, and demand may be slightly boosted. For cast aluminum, it is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory depletion and positive expectations [5][6][9]. - **Strategies**: Light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: As of October 24, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,205 yuan/ton, up 1.53% from October 17; London Aluminum closed at 2,865 US dollars/ton on October 23, up 2.47% from October 17. Alumina futures rose 0.22% to 2,785 yuan/ton, and cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [12][16]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.38, down 0.47 from October 17. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,130 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from October 17, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 66,495 yuan/ton, up 3,015 yuan/ton from October 17 [13][21]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Aluminum's position increased by 22.47% to 607,128 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 10,191 lots to 4,602 lots. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 0.81% to 21,130 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [19][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of October 23, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased 3.56% to 477,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased 2.2% to 122,028 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased 0.7% to 568,000 tons. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased 5.62% to 66,695 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The import volume of bauxite in September 2025 was 15.8806 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.17% and a year - on - year increase of 38.14%. The inventory of nine bauxite ports decreased by 100,000 tons to 26.69 million tons. The price of scrap aluminum was firm, and in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 25.3% year - on - year, while the export volume decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [37][43]. - **Production and Trade**: In September 2025, alumina production increased 8.7% year - on - year, imports decreased 36.43% month - on - month and increased 61.68% year - on - year, and exports increased 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. Electrolytic aluminum production increased 1.8% year - on - year, and imports increased 80.13% year - on - year in September 2025. The total output of aluminum products decreased 1.5% year - on - year, imports increased 35.4% year - on - year, and exports decreased 7.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy increased 10% year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased 17.1% year - on - year, with imports decreasing and exports increasing [46][53][57]. - **Downstream Markets**: The real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 92.78 in September 2025, down 0.27 from the previous month. Infrastructure investment increased 3.34% year - on - year from January to September 2024. In September 2025, automobile sales increased 14.86% year - on - year, and production increased 17.15% year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buy strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may face a situation where supply gradually decreases while demand remains stable. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosting demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of supply contraction and stable demand with high industry inventory. Light - position oscillating trades are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,965 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main - contract position was 234,936 lots, up 3,263 lots; the LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,766.5 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 487,125 tons, down 4,100 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.58, up 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,810 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 33 yuan, down 8 yuan; the main - contract position was 351,214 lots, down 3,945 lots [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 120 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main - contract position was 12,810 lots, down 269 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,910 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium was 5.2 dollars/ton, down 7.68 dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,835 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of alumina was 25 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina production in the current month was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.53 percentage points; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons; the export volume was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume was 246,797.1 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production start - up rate was 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the social inventory was 58 million tons, up 0.80 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The output of aluminum products was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The output was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons; the total built - in production capacity was 126 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 322.70 million vehicles, up 47.46 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - For Shanghai aluminum options, the 20 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.54%, down 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money IV was 9.93%, down 0.0015 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.21, up 0.0121 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table, and relevant issues will be discussed [2]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with industrial added value and consumer spending showing different trends, and fixed - asset investment decreased slightly [2]. - China's LPR in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, and there is still room for moderate monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter [2]. - New policy - based financial instruments are being rapidly deployed, with large - scale funds being invested by major policy banks to support economic development [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]