Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has disappointed, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. However, the port pressure has eased due to the delay in unloading imported goods. Future upward price drivers may come from the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. It's advisable to focus on supply - side disturbances and look for long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. - For urea, there is still a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9][11]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, currently, there is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 10.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.39% decline, at 432.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, such as a 3.52 - million - barrel increase in commercial crude oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite the disappearance of geopolitical premiums and minimal OPEC production increase, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 2.5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 47 yuan to 2272 yuan/ton, with the basis at par [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has slightly decreased, and coal prices are rising, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. The peak - season demand has disappointed, but the port pressure has eased. Future upward drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. Focus on supply - side disturbances and long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1602 yuan, with a basis of - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and the operating rate has significantly declined. The demand is weak, but the price is at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering, with RU stabilizing and NR being relatively strong. Typhoon Fengshen may affect rubber - producing areas. There are different views among bulls and bears. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises have changed, and some all - steel tire enterprises have issued price - increase notices [10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 4688 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has continued to decline, and the supply is strong while demand is weak. The export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged, while the styrene spot price increased and the futures price decreased. The basis strengthened. Supply - side operating rates decreased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side operating rates increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise inventory increased while trader inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is gradually picking up. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply surplus is expected to expand. The supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side situation suppresses the market [27]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 84 yuan. The load of PX decreased, and multiple devices were under maintenance. The load of PTA increased, and imports from South Korea to China increased in early October. Inventory increased in August [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. There is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 54 yuan. The load of PTA increased, and some devices adjusted their loads. The downstream load decreased slightly, and inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 86 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and multiple devices had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the weak - reality pattern of high domestic inventory and unmet peak - season demand remains. The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. Future upward price drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. - For urea, there is a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. - For rubber, the price is short - term stable. It's recommended to set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan/barrel, or 0.14%, to 443.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 25.00 yuan/ton, or 0.94%, to 2694.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, to 3159.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujaiera port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 21 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 22 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 7 to - 6 [3][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. The overall supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still weak. Focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, and in Henan it increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 4 yuan to 1604 yuan, with a basis of - 74 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: The number of short - term faulty devices increased, and the operating rate decreased significantly. The demand is weak, and the price is at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increase, and improved demand in China. The bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and possible under - performance of supply benefits [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The price is short - term stable. Set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 4694 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 114 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 312 yuan. The overall operating rate was 82.6%, with the calcium - carbide method at 82.9% and the ethylene method at 81.9%. The downstream operating rate was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 5590 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract was 6600 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 38.81% [16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6929 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton. The basis was 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45% [19]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6618 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8% [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 64 yuan to 6376 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 1 US dollar to 786 US dollars. The basis was 53 yuan. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. The PTA load was 76.7%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: The current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 34 yuan to 4456 yuan. The East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4355 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan. The PTA load was 76.7%, and the downstream load was 91.4%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased to 80%, and the loom load decreased to 68%. The social inventory on October 10 was 216 million tons [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 32 yuan to 4089 yuan. The East China spot price rose 6 yuan to 4120 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, with the syngas - based method at 81.9% and the ethylene - based method at 74.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. - For polyethylene, the cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, the cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. - For PTA, the supply overhaul volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.79% decline, at 443.70 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 1.90 million barrels to 11.49 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 10.06 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.67 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.53 million barrels to 45.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 32 yuan, Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan, and Lunan decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan, at 2298 yuan/ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive at +19. The 1 - 5 spread changed by +13, at - 13 [4]. - **Strategy View**: With reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 50. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 74 [7]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating and showed signs of stabilization. The long - side of natural rubber RU was bullish due to seasonal and demand expectations, while the short - side was bearish due to weak demand. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025 [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: Macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 15 yuan, at 4677 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 (+15) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 314 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase, and factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5590 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The spot price of styrene was 6550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6540 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 46 - yuan weakening. The supply - side upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons [17]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6910 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 125 yuan/ton, a 8 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises and traders increased [20]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6595 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises, traders, and ports increased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6312 yuan. PX CFR increased by 8 dollars, at 787 dollars. The basis was 128 yuan (+89). The 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25]. - **Strategy View**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls in the short term. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. Although the valuation is at a neutral - low level, there is limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in the terminal and PTA valuations [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4422 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 55 yuan, at 4325 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. Social inventory increased by 5.3 million tons on October 10 [26]. - **Strategy View**: In the future, the supply overhaul volume remains high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand for polyester fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan, at 4057 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 31 yuan, at 4114 yuan. The basis was 65 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan (+2). The supply - side EG load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants adjusted their loads. Port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons [27][30]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of industry fundamentals, the operating loads of domestic and overseas plants are high, domestic supply is large, imports are increasing, and ports are turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic loads, along with the gradual commissioning of new plants, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high year - on - year, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, due to rumors and weak overall commodity sentiment, the price has fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high while demand is weak with high inventory pressure. However, the downside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped. The supply has increased, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It's currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.90 yuan/barrel, a 0.64% decline, at 448.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased, while diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 15 yuan, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 68 yuan to 2274 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 11 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to rumors and weak overall sentiment, the price fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The downside space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan, and in Henan, it fluctuated between - 10 and + 20 yuan. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 67 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, the futures price dropped, supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. It's in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market expectation is highly uncertain, and the global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber price oscillated weakly. The long and short sides have different views on the price trend. Tire production rates decreased during the National Day holiday [10][11][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 29 yuan to 4692 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 112 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 312 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased. The downstream operating rate remained flat, and the inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China decreased by 85 yuan/ton, and the spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate decreased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6918 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 6602 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 65 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 92 yuan to 6338 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 12 dollars to 779 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted or were under maintenance. The import from South Korea to China increased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 70 yuan to 4440 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan to 4380 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and the downstream load remained flat. The inventory increased, and the spot processing fee increased while the futures processing fee decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 4061 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 62 yuan to 4145 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load remained flat. The import forecast increased, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: Affected by rumors of Iranian plant shutdowns and some warehouses not accepting Iranian ships' cargo, the 1 - 5 spread has strengthened from a low level, and the futures price has stabilized. However, the actual fundamentals are weak, with high domestic supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the spot price has dropped less. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is weak. It is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Rubber**: Affected by macro factors, the rubber price has broken down in the short - term. Referring to the April 2025 trend, there may be a 1 - 3 - day decline cycle. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - build the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [17]. - **PVC**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, but the basis has strengthened. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [24]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price has declined. The cost - end support has weakened, but the inventory is high. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the price may remain in a low - level shock [27]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price has declined. The supply pressure is high, the demand has a seasonal rebound, and the inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [30]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **PTA**: The supply side has a high maintenance volume, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic and overseas device loads are high, the supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short on rallies [36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 12.50 yuan/barrel, a 2.68% decline, at 453.70 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed a decrease in arrival inventory by 0.29 million barrels to 211.81 million barrels, a 0.14% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, a 0.69% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels, a 0.70% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, waiting for OPEC's reaction to falling oil prices [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 55 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 2.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 35 yuan to 2342 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 42. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32 to - 12 [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to weak fundamentals but limited downside space [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The Shandong spot price decreased by 10 yuan, and the Henan spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 13 yuan to 1610 yuan, and the basis was - 100. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 to - 68 [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of low valuation and weak drive [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.112 million tons, a 0.1 - million - ton decrease, a 1% decline [13][15]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term operation, and partially re - build the hedge position [17]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4721 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 111 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2450 yuan/ton. The overall开工率 was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, an 8.4 - million - ton increase, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons, a 5.5 - million - ton increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The styrene spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 6700 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price decreased by 53 yuan to 6690 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 129.25 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase. The Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54%, a 0.87% decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The price may stop falling due to the decreasing port inventory and the upward - repair potential of the BZN spread [24]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 54 yuan to 6983 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 7040 yuan/ton. The basis was 57 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 million tons to 48.86 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 5.40 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 44.36%, a 0.23% increase [26]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level shock due to weak cost - end support and expected seasonal demand recovery [27]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 29 yuan to 6693 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 6730 yuan/ton. The basis was 37 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, the trader inventory increased by 6.11 million tons to 26.11 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 51.76%, a 0.05% increase [29]. - **Strategy**: High supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market [30]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract decreased by 46 yuan to 6458 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 791 dollars. The basis was 16 yuan, a 15 - yuan decrease. The 11 - 1 spread was 28 yuan, a 4 - yuan increase. The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted, and one Japanese plant was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, a 2.1 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a 0.019 - million - ton increase month - on - month [32]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high load, expected inventory accumulation, and neutral - low valuation [33]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4510 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 4440 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan, a 6 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving loads were unchanged. The social inventory on October 10 was 2.16 million tons, a 0.053 - million - ton increase [33]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of high supply - side maintenance, limited processing fee space, and weak terminal signs [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4111 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 1 yuan to 4207 yuan. The basis was 69 yuan, a 1 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan, an 11 - yuan increase. The supply - side load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 8 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.9 million tons per day from October 11 - 12. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [35]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].