事 件 点 评 绎，迎接跨年行情 ——中央经济工作会议点评 | 策 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 政策表态释放积极信号，大盘有望继续向上演 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 略 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 绎，迎接跨年行情 | 究 | | | | | | | | | | | | ——中央经济工作会议点评 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：熊越（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340524080001） | | | | | | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22118627 | 邮箱：xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn | 年 | 月 | 日 | 2025 | 12 | 12 | | | | | | 分析师：叶子沛（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340525070001） | | | | | | | | | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a fluctuation with a weekly trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan, reaching over 2 trillion yuan on Monday and Friday. The index fell by 0.34% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%, and the STAR 50 Index gained 1.72% [1][3][5] Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference held in December set the direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand, fostering new growth drivers, and mitigating risks as key tasks to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3][8] - November exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to recover, increasing by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [11][12] Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on quality improvement and effective growth. The policy framework aims to transition from scale growth to quality enhancement, emphasizing the need for better coordination between domestic economic work and international trade challenges [9][10][20] - The meeting introduced new policy measures, including flexible use of monetary tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain liquidity and support investment recovery [10][20] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as Technology, Media, Telecommunications (TMT), public utilities, finance, and electric power equipment for potential investment opportunities [15][20] Export and Import Dynamics - The report notes that while exports to the U.S. have decreased, exports to emerging markets remain robust, with significant growth in automobile exports, which surged by 53% year-on-year. However, imports showed a modest increase of 1.9% year-on-year, influenced by weak energy prices and sluggish domestic demand [11][12]

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance in early trading, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (Huashan, 159285) rising by 0.97% and the Food and Beverage ETF (516900) increasing by 0.69% [1] - The technology sector remains active, with the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588290) up 55.66% year-to-date and the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) up 57.23% year-to-date as of December 11 [1] Group 2: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the importance of domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and implement actions to boost consumption [1] - The conference plans to expand the supply of quality goods and services, optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [1] - The conference also aims to stabilize investment, increase the scale of central budget investments, and effectively stimulate private investment through new policy financial tools [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the Chinese consumer market is complex and diverse, presenting new opportunities, with significant growth potential for both new consumption enterprises and leading traditional consumer companies [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted a clear divergence in micro-enterprise profitability, primarily concentrated in high-growth sectors such as TMT and industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, indicating a structural recovery driven by new economy sectors [2]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储年内三次降息，中国资产正迎来全球资金的青睐。摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11 月，境外长线资金今年以来通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约100亿美元的中国内地及香港股票。 多家外资机构表示，中国经济展现出韧性，市场估值具备吸引力，且政策环境持续优化，推动海外 长线资金加速回流中国股市。从配置方向看，外资重点关注科技成长、资源品、基本面改善行业及 高股息板块。 海外资金回流中国市场 伴随美联储年内三次降息，海外资金呈现出积极流入中国资产的态势。 摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11月，境外长线资金今年以来通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约 100亿美元的中国内地及香港股票，与2024年约170亿美元的资金流出形成鲜明对比。 高盛最新发布的全球资金流向报告显示，在截至12月3日的一个月中，中国内地股票基金获得 58.46亿美元净流入，规模超过韩国、印度等市场。 海外中国ETF今年以来也持续"吸金"。富途数据显示，截至12月9日，中国海外互联网ETF- KraneShares资产规模为89.14亿美元，相较于去年年底的54.1 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to fully tap into economic potential and stabilize the birth population as key policy directions, indicating a clear intention to expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [5][7] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as the primary direction for policy in 2026, with an emphasis on both goods and service consumption, as well as increased infrastructure investment to stabilize the real estate market [7][8] - The report indicates that innovation-driven development and the cultivation of new productive forces will remain major policy directions, with a call for deeper integration of technological and industrial innovation [7][8] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, potentially driving the onset of a spring market rally, supported by expectations of economic recovery and profit restoration [8][11] - Specific industries such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military, new energy, and new consumption are identified as likely beneficiaries of the favorable policy environment [11] - The report highlights that sectors related to innovation, such as TMT and machinery, are expected to benefit from the emphasis on innovation-driven policies and high-quality development of key industrial chains [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points is expected to catalyze a spring market rally [1][7] - The current economic environment, characterized by weak employment data and stable inflation, supports the Fed's preventive rate cut strategy [7][10] - The Fed's mixed signals indicate a short-term liquidity increase, while medium-term constraints may arise from potential inflation pressures [10][11] Group 2 - The anticipated spring market rally may benefit technology and cyclical sectors, particularly those with upward industry trends [2][15] - Historical analysis shows that industries with strong growth during Fed rate cut cycles, such as technology and certain cyclical sectors, tend to outperform [18][27] - Specific sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), commercial aerospace, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as high-performing cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [22][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.02, representing a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HKD 1.92 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is strategically embracing AI, which is expected to stabilize and improve its business performance. The focus is on high-quality business development and optimizing revenue sources, leading to a significant improvement in gross margin [7]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 775 million in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a strategic reduction in low-margin businesses. However, it achieved an adjusted net profit of RMB 17 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 187 million in the same period of 2024 [7]. - The advertising business is under pressure due to policy adjustments and environmental factors, but there is an expectation for gradual recovery in 2026 as consumer spending improves [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, was RMB 2,227,684 thousand, with a projected decline to RMB 1,339,255 thousand in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 1,612,762 thousand in 2025 [4][9]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 767,674 thousand in 2023 to a loss of RMB 521,922 thousand in 2025, indicating a trend towards profitability [4][9]. - The gross margin is projected to increase from 67% in 2023 to 71% in 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency [9][10].

Market Review - In the past five trading days (December 5 to December 11), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index slightly decreased by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.14% [3] - The trading volume increased, with a total of 9.30 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 205.98 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [11] Economic Data - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly rebounding from October, influenced by a lower base, stable external demand, and the end of holiday disruptions [26] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year [28] Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8, outlining the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [34] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a focus on structural adjustments and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies [34] Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with a positive outlook driven by policy support and liquidity expectations [36] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic substitution processes [36] - The energy storage demand and solid-state battery industrialization present investment opportunities in the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors [36] - The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [37]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 shows resilience in external demand while internal demand remains volatile, leading to uncertainty in demand prospects [6][7]. - From January to September 2025, China's export growth maintained a strong resilience with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 6.1%, driven by high-value-added products like electromechanical products [6][7]. - A-share core entities' foreign income maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4% in H1 2025, while domestic income saw a reduced decline of -0.1% [12][13]. Group 2 - The TMT and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a recovery in both internal and external demand, with significant support from AI-related applications and domestic supply-demand policies [21][22]. - The TMT sector benefits from strong growth in overseas demand, particularly in the communication and semiconductor industries, with communication equipment's foreign income growing by 33.3% in H1 2025 [27][28]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in power equipment and defense industries, shows improved domestic income growth, indicating a positive trend supported by policy measures [12][19]. Group 3 - The majority of TMT and manufacturing industries have a high proportion of foreign income, generally exceeding 10%, indicating a reliance on synchronized internal and external demand [18][20]. - The gross profit margins for most TMT and manufacturing sectors are significantly higher for foreign operations compared to domestic ones, with differences often exceeding 10 percentage points [32][33]. - Future opportunities are anticipated in technology manufacturing and domestic market construction, particularly in AI technology and equipment manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from supportive policies [19][21].

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector has received favorable policies, contributing to a significant market rebound. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies, indicating a strategic focus on encouraging insurance capital to enter the market. Additionally, the chairman of the China Securities Association emphasized the importance of differentiated regulation and support for high-quality institutions, which has raised expectations for improved profitability among leading securities firms [1] - On Monday, the stock markets experienced a volatile rebound with a noticeable increase in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and continued to rebound, filling the gap left on November 21, while the Shenzhen Component Index showed stronger performance, closing above all moving averages. The total trading volume for both markets was around 2 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous Friday. The main market focus was on the TMT and military industries, with technology stocks and small-cap stocks performing particularly well [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a process of rebound after a rapid adjustment. Following a quick decline in late November, the index found support above the low point from early October and has gradually stabilized and rebounded. As of Monday, the downward gap from November 21 has been successfully filled, and future attention should be paid to changes in fundamental expectations [2]