Core Viewpoint - Under the backdrop of normalized global geopolitical risks, weakened dollar credit system, and rising economic uncertainty, gold has emerged as a "yardstick" for measuring asset value [1] Asset Performance - Since March 2018, only a few cryptocurrencies have recorded positive returns when priced in gold, while other asset classes have generally underperformed [2] - The report highlights that the performance of cryptocurrencies is driven by payment convenience, technological innovation premiums, and supply scarcity, particularly Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reinforces its "digital gold" status [4] - Equity assets have shown nominal growth but remain weak when priced in gold, primarily relying on liquidity injections, with a peak growth rate of 26.7% in the US M2 money supply [4] - Real estate in the US and India has underperformed relative to gold, despite benefiting from economic resilience and demographic dividends [4] Industry Performance - All major industries have underperformed gold since 2018, but resource sectors and new momentum industries, such as high-dividend coal and banking, have shown relative strength [6] - New momentum industries, represented by electric new energy and TMT, have outperformed traditional sectors like real estate [7] - In the secondary industry, precious metals have been the standout performer since 2018, with emerging technologies like semiconductors outperforming traditional tech [8] Style and Strategy - Small-cap stocks have emerged as the absolute winners, with the micro-cap index outperforming gold since 2018 due to a reverse investment mechanism, low valuations, and liquidity premiums [10][13] - The report indicates that small-cap factors have significantly outperformed gold, while large-cap stocks have lagged, reflecting a preference for emerging small-cap industries [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a pattern of oscillating rotation, while the bond market sentiment has turned positive. In the stock index futures market, events have catalyzed the rotation from large - financial sectors to TMT sectors. For stock index options, a covered - call defense strategy is recommended. In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment has improved, with different impacts on long - and short - term bonds [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The event has catalyzed the rotation from large - financial sectors to TMT sectors. The IF, IH, IC, and IM basis and spread data have changed compared to the previous trading day, and their positions have also changed. The market is affected by events such as NVIDIA's sales plan in China and the Central Urban Work Conference. The anti - involution trading is expected to continue until the Politburo meeting in July. It is recommended to configure IM long positions before the meeting [7][8] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - A covered - call defense strategy is recommended. The trading volume of each option variety has increased by 78.86%, while the implied volatility has decreased by an average of 0.27%. The decline in implied volatility is mainly due to the weakening of far - month implied volatility, and the short - term market trend is oscillating and weak [2][8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has turned positive. The treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.47%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank made a large - scale net investment, but the capital market was still tight during the tax - payment period. The GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, which the bond market had already priced in. The stock - bond seesaw effect supported the bond market. The improvement of risk preference is negative for the long - term bonds, while the central bank's care for the capital market and large banks' purchase of short - term bonds are positive for short - term bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening of the yield curve [2][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of China and the US in June are presented, including China's export amount, new RMB loans, industrial added value, and the US CPI. The actual values of some data deviate from the predicted values [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Important Meetings**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [12] - **Economic Data**: The GDP in the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The social consumer goods retail sales and industrial added value data in June are also provided [13] - **AI Computing Power**: NVIDIA has obtained approval to sell H20 chips to China and will launch RTXpro GPU [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: The basis, spread, and position data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [7] - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific data content provided - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: The trading volume, open interest, spread, and basis data of T, TF, TS, and TL are provided, along with the central bank's open - market operations [9]

无论是短期是不是回调或者震荡就是网上的概率还是非常非常大的就是我们其实从经验经验了一系列事件看得到就是中国资产进行重复的逻辑实际上是在增强那么美国经济可能更多的是一个平缓的下移而且美债利率很难下降而且美元确实是趋弱的那么大家对于中国的这个其盈利会有些担心但是我就随着时间的推移呢 可能也会看到一些编辑的这个改善我觉得这一次中国这个上市公司的尤其是龙头企业这个盈利的修复就供给侧会发挥更重要的作用就是大家会看到很多的行业资本开始明显的这个下降或者是明显的负增长 东方财富证券将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢好尊敬的各位领导各位投资者朋友们大家晚上好感谢大家接受 每周日晚上东方财富策略的市场风向标签完会议我是东财策略成果那么首先呢由我来简要报告一下一周几周沟通小节和市场展望那么后续的话我们团队会员中也会讲一下我们从量化指标最近我们就看交易热度这个指标对大家实战意义的一个启发这周的话呢 我们和机构交流我觉得应该来说的话呢有一些这个共识和分析从共识来讲的话呢市场大家对于其实中期还是比较乐观的当然有一些投资者觉得短期可能会有一个回调的这个风险但是基本上也是认为这个回调是买入机会 对于这个结构呢存在一些分析因为前期我们 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced noticeable fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below the 3500-point mark but recovering to close above it, indicating that the sideways movement since Q4 2024 has ended [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and with the policy window approaching in July, a slow upward trend is expected to continue amidst fluctuations [1] Future Outlook - After breaking the 3500-point level, two potential paths for the market are identified: 1) Continuing the upward trend to challenge the October 2024 high; 2) Consolidating before challenging the 3674-point high [1] - For the market to challenge previous highs, three conditions must be met: 1) Implementation of fiscal stimulus policies; 2) Continued easing of the global environment; 3) Sustained increase in trading volume [1] Sector Analysis - The market is expected to see a thematic event-driven trend in July, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - Key sectors to watch include: 1) Consumer sectors such as dairy, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics, which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [2] 2) Robotics, with a shift from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, presenting opportunities in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] 3) Semiconductor industry, focusing on domestic production across equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] 4) Military industry, with expectations of order recovery in 2025, showing signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports [2] 5) Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a four-year adjustment period, with positive net profit growth since Q3 2024 [2] Market Performance - The market showed signs of consolidation with a decrease in the number of profitable stocks, as only about 1300 stocks rose during the trading session [3] - Leading sectors included telecommunications, computers, electronics, home appliances, and automobiles, while sectors such as coal, agriculture, public utilities, textiles, and beauty care lagged behind [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth performance and sectors with strong industry momentum during the A-share mid-year report season [1][2] - Companies with significant earnings growth exceeding industry averages and those with low or mid valuations are expected to attract more investment [1][2] - Historical data suggests that sectors performing well in mid-year reports tend to yield excess returns, particularly in July and August [2][3] Group 2 - The AI industry is highlighted as a key growth area, with technology sectors such as electronics, chemicals, automotive, and pharmaceuticals showing positive earnings forecasts [3] - Companies benefiting from AI development, particularly in communications and electronics, are expected to see continued demand for computing power [3] - The report suggests that sectors like power equipment and steel, driven by supply-side logic, are also worth monitoring for potential investment opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) is experiencing a positive trend, driven by leading stocks such as Kuaishou-W, with a focus on the technology sector amidst favorable market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 14, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) has achieved three consecutive days of gains, with Kuaishou-W leading the charge [1]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 98.9 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.5% [1]. - The ETF's latest scale stands at 1.307 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Index Performance - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) has shown resilience, outperforming similar indices such as the Hang Seng Internet and Technology indices [1]. - The HSSCITI's current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 21.18, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 96.99% of the time over the past year [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - As of July 11, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCITI account for 74.91% of the index, with Kuaishou-W, SMIC, Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, and Alibaba-W being the most significant contributors [2]. - Notably, the combined weight of AI leaders Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30%, highlighting a concentration of technology leaders within the index [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current phase of the Hong Kong technology sector is characterized by a convergence of "valuation trough" and "industrial transformation," with supportive policies and funding enhancing the investment landscape [2]. - Institutions anticipate a gradual increase in earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Technology Index from 2025 to 2027, suggesting a potential "valuation recovery" and "earnings growth" scenario [2].

廖市无双：轻舟已过 3500，后市可为空间几何？ 20250613 摘要 市场短期阻力与长期潜力：上证指数在 3,555 点附近面临技术阻力，但 多头均线排列和强劲的市场情绪预示着未来仍有上行潜力，或在四季度 前挑战 3,674 点。 筹码结构分析：天朗 50 筹码结构显示，筹码密集区位于 3,350 点附近， 当前点位偏离平均成本，短期存在调整压力，但密集筹码支撑市场迅速 反弹。 板块轮动与风格变化：金融与科技板块齐飞，顺周期板块如房地产和基 建开始走强。金融和成长风格表现突出，消费和稳定风格出现触底迹象， 主题投资成为超额收益的关键。 银行板块投资逻辑：银行板块受益于资产荒和稳定资金流入，周期性上 涨仍有空间，建议逢低配置，但需警惕估值过高或快速上涨的情况。 券商板块投资策略：券商板块反弹显著，但部分个股仍有上涨空间。建 议进行高低切换，将涨幅较大的换成前期涨幅较小的券商股票，优化投 资组合。 Q&A 当前市场走势如何，未来可能会出现哪些变化？ 自 6 月 24 日市场选择向上以来，至 7 月 11 日市场表现强劲。我们在 6 月 24 日翻多，并预测市场短期内会上涨。实际情况显示，市场在 7 月 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges investors face during a normal valuation period, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a clear strategy and emotional discipline in the face of market fluctuations and structural rotations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Emotional Challenges in Normal Valuation Period - Investors often experience a "fear of missing out" during this phase, leading to anxiety about not participating in rising markets while holding onto their investments [6][8]. - There is also a sense of fatigue from waiting for valuations to drop, causing doubts about whether the opportunity for low valuations has passed [7][8]. - The lack of clear feedback during normal valuation periods can lead to impulsive decisions, such as chasing hot sectors or abandoning established strategies [9][10]. Group 2: Strategies for Navigating Normal Valuation Period - It is crucial to respect position discipline and avoid chasing prices or making hasty exits when valuations are not in the low range [12][16]. - Investors should shift their focus from buying logic to holding logic, assessing whether their holdings deviate from normal value ranges and if rebalancing is necessary [13][14]. - Maintaining a strategy and reducing exposure to market noise is essential, as frequent changes in sector focus can disrupt long-term plans [15][17]. Group 3: Long-term Perspective - The article emphasizes that enduring the quiet periods of normal valuations prepares investors for future opportunities during undervalued and overvalued phases [18]. - The focus should be on refining strategies and managing emotions, ensuring that when market conditions change, investors are ready to act without being swayed by short-term fluctuations [18][19].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) has seen a 1.10% increase, with notable gains from companies like SenseTime-W and Oriental Selection exceeding 5% [1] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) has outperformed other indices, rising over 1% during trading [1] - The trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached 2.62 billion, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2 - The HSSCITI's top ten weighted stocks account for 75.01%, with major players like Kuaishou-W and SMIC leading the pack [2] - The concentration of AI leaders such as Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30% within the top-weighted stocks, highlighting a strong focus on technology [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is currently benefiting from the AI innovation wave, with historical trends suggesting potential for significant returns [2] Group 3 - Long-term trends indicate a rising premium for China's technology sector, with notable excess returns since 2005 [3] - The technology sector has shown high elasticity and sustainability during various market cycles [3] - New industries such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics are gaining policy support, indicating a shift towards localization in core technology sectors [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF is positioned to capitalize on the "pure technology revolution" opportunities presented by the AI era [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market closed above the 3500-point mark, indicating a continued recovery in market risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from November 8, 2024 [1][3] - The recent market uptrend is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, suggesting that the market has become desensitized to tariff impacts and has formed sufficient expectations regarding these changes [1] - Key support factors for the ongoing rise in A-shares include the sustained low interest rate environment and the potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue into 2025, with opportunities arising in sensor, controller, and robotic hand sectors as products evolve from humanoid to functional robots [2] Group 3 - The market saw over 2900 stocks rise, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, oil and petrochemicals, steel, non-bank financials, and coal, while sectors like automotive, media, military, electronics, and utilities faced declines [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already evident in Q1 reports across various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed for three consecutive quarters since Q3 2024 [2]