Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - On July 24, soybeans declined significantly while oils and fats were generally strong. Soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated weakly, relying on the 5 - day moving average. Soybean No. 2 futures prices dropped by over 1.5%. Soybean meal futures prices fell sharply by over 2%, and rapeseed meal futures prices dropped by over 2.6%. Among oils and fats, soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1.3%, and rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - In the soybean market, with the departure of long - position funds, futures prices dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of US trade negotiations, which will affect US soybean export prospects. In the short term, the market is more volatile, but the rebound trend remains intact. In the oil and fat market, palm oil led the rise, followed by soybean oil. Energy attributes and oil - meal arbitrage boosted the market [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Brazilian soybean exports**: In July 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. It is 26% higher than the same period last year but 10% lower than June. From July 20 - 26, the weekly export volume increased by 9.9% [8]. - **US soybean yield forecast**: South American crop expert Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.335 billion bushels [8]. - **Paraguayan soybean exports**: In the first half of 2025, Paraguay's soybean export volume was 4.106112 million tons, a 25.1% decrease from the same period last year. The export value decreased by 30.5%. Due to drought, the 2025 production is expected to decline [9]. - **Indonesian palm oil production and trade**: In May 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production decreased by 7.01% to 4.165 million tons. Domestic consumption decreased by 3.4%, and exports increased by 49.75%. From January - May, the production was about 2.08% higher than the same period in 2024 [10]. - **US - Indonesia - Malaysia palm oil trade**: After the US reduced the tariff on Indonesia to 19%, Indonesia is expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia is still negotiating with the US, facing a 25% tariff [12]. 2. Spot Market Prices - The prices of imported second - class soybeans in Dalian and the average soybean price remained unchanged. The prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and the average price decreased. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions increased [13][15]. 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The pressing profits of oil mills vary by location and the type of soybeans used (domestic or imported). For example, in Heilongjiang, the profit is 3.40 yuan/ton, while in Dalian (domestic), it is - 219.60 yuan/ton [16]. 4. Related Charts - The document mentions multiple charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27].

CBOT农产品晚间分析：美豆连跌三日后止跌反弹，中国买家持续缺席，后市还靠谁撑？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and live pigs prices decline, palm oil and sugar prices rise, while cotton, corn, eggs, and jujubes show fluctuating trends, and apples rise steadily. Each product's price movement is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Movement**: The soybean meal 2509 contract drops significantly due to ample supply and long - position liquidation. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve soybean imports, and the domestic soybean meal supply increases with port arrivals and high oil - mill operation rates, leading to inventory accumulation over 1 million tons [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [2]. Palm Oil - **Price Movement**: The palm oil 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. Indonesian palm oil exports surge, with a 4.27% month - on - month decline in inventory in May and a nearly 50% month - on - month increase in exports. In June, exports increased by 30.5% month - on - month. The active promotion of the biodiesel plan and rising domestic import costs support the price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract shows a strong upward trend above all moving averages, with a bullish moving - average arrangement and an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8980 and resistance at 9150 [3]. Live Pigs - **Price Movement**: The live pig 2509 contract drops sharply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' stable - market policy dampens short - term production - reduction expectations. Weak demand, high temperatures, and increased alternative consumption lead to sluggish pork sales [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14280 and resistance at 14500 [5]. Cotton - **Price Movement**: The cotton 2509 contract oscillates with a negative close. The domestic commercial cotton inventory consumption accelerates, but potential quota increases may add to the supply. Import volume from January to June is 460,000 tons, a 74% year - on - year decrease. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, with poor orders and rising finished - product inventory [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract adjusts at a high level, with long - position liquidation. The price falls below the 5 - day moving average but is supported by the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14090 and resistance at 14205 [7]. Corn - **Price Movement**: The corn 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. The continuous auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has a shrinking transaction rate. Wheat substitution and the approaching spring - corn harvest pressure the price, while imports in June are 156,000 tons, an 82.7% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract fluctuates around short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2308 and resistance at 2330 [9]. Sugar - **Price Movement**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. The high sales rate during the summer consumption peak and low inventory support the price, but the expected increase in imported sugar is a resistance factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract stands above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 5825 and resistance at 5900 [11]. Eggs - **Price Movement**: The egg 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly after large swings. The supply side has high pressure from newly - laid eggs, but hot weather reduces laying rates and inventory is low at all levels. The demand peak is delayed, and the high futures premium limits the rebound space [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract enters a narrow - fluctuation phase after large - scale oscillations, with both long and short positions reducing. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3610 and resistance at 3652 [14]. Soybean Oil - **Price Movement**: The soybean oil 2509 contract oscillates upward, entering an uptrend. The strong performance of palm oil drives soybean oil up, but the high arrival of imported soybeans and rising inventory may limit the increase [15][17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rebounds above the moving - average system, showing a strengthening trend. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8068 and resistance at 8198 [17]. Jujubes - **Price Movement**: The jujube 2601 contract first declines and then rises, showing an oscillating trend. New - jujube production is estimated to be 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease, but the reduction is less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is higher than last year [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract oscillates downward with narrow fluctuations. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10360 and resistance at 10680 [18]. Apples - **Price Movement**: The apple 2510 contract rises steadily. The inventory is at a five - year low, with 704,500 tons as of July 23, a decrease of 101,500 tons from the previous period. The high price of early - maturing apples boosts market confidence, but weather risks exist during the fruit - expansion period [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rises steadily above the moving - average system, hitting a new high, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 7932 and resistance at 8014 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to show a volatile trend. The 9 - month contract has rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region has increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. However, the futures price is facing technical resistance and may show a short - term weakening trend [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish. Although the demand growth rate is expected to slow down, the import cost is rising, and the spread trading strategy of 91 and 15 is recommended [1]. - The price of palm oil is expected to be bullish. Due to short - covering and the rise of the surrounding market, the inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased steadily. A long - only strategy and 91 spread trading are recommended [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to be volatile. Although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues such as high inventory and cold - stored eggs may limit the increase [1][2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile. Although the market is currently supported by optimistic sentiment, the problem of over - capacity still exists [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the weighted corn contract continued to reduce positions and adjust. The 9 - month contract rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region increased. The price in the华北 region was stable, and the price in the sales area rebounded slightly. Technically, the futures price faced resistance at the 2320 - 2330 price range and showed a short - term weakening trend [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestically, the price of soybean meal rose, driven by the increase in import cost. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down due to policy measures [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On Wednesday, the BMD palm oil futures price closed higher. In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased, and the export volume increased significantly. Domestically, the palm oil price led the rise, and the inventory increased steadily [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2509 closed up 0.44%. The spot price increased slightly. In the future, although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues may limit the increase [1][2]. - **Live Pigs**: On Wednesday, the main live pig contract 2509 closed up 1.46%. The spot price decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the problem of over - capacity still exists, but short - term rebound is possible [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to adjust the pig production capacity and promote the substitution of soybean meal [3]. - Indonesia expects an increase in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 [3]. - In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly [3]. - Canada has adjusted its rapeseed production forecast. The 2024/25 production is raised, while the 2025/26 production is lowered [4]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides information on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [6][8][9][12]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides information on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [14][18][24][26].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a data daily report on agricultural products, specifically focusing on the soybean and bean meal markets [4][5] - It was released by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on July 24, 2025 [5] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - The basis of the main bean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on July 23 was -25, with a change of 21. Other locations like Tianjin had a basis of -55 (change of 51), and Rizhao had -175 (change of 11) [6] - The basis of 43% bean meal spot in different locations such as Zhangjiagang (-175, change of -9), Dongguan (-195, change of 11), etc., was also reported [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was -128 [6] Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread was -21, M9 - RM9 was -3, and RM9 - 1 was 15. The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 337 (change of -13), and the spread of the main contract was 270 (change of -10) [7] Exchange Rate and Profit Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1137. The soybean CNF premium was 110.00 cents per bushel, and the import soybean gross profit was reported for different Brazilian months [7] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - The supply side shows that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska may face high - temperature and drought conditions, but overall, the weather is favorable for soybean growth. With the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of bean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September [7] - On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand. The high cost - performance of bean meal increases its proportion in feed, and提货 is at a high level. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein demand [8] - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises for bean meal have increased [8] Group 3: Core View - Overall, domestic bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the basis is expected to continue to be under pressure. There are no conditions for a sharp rise in short - term spot prices. With a low basis, the upside space above 009 is limited. Under the support of import costs, it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on M01 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The external raw sugar market continues to decline. Despite a downward adjustment in Brazil's production forecast, strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are pressuring prices. In China, imports of syrup premixes in June were still significantly lower year - on - year but increased compared to the previous month. Policy adjustments have shifted imports, but the supply gap is widening. With strong supply and demand of domestic sugar, low inventory pressure on enterprises, and firm spot prices, there is still support for futures prices. However, import pressure is gradually materializing, with 750,000 tons of out - of - quota sugar expected to arrive in July, and large - scale imports of sugarcane in Yunnan this year are also suppressing prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are oscillating within a range [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The recent sentiment in the domestic commodity market is positive, and the re - inflation expectation has driven low - priced commodities to strengthen. The fundamentals of the pulp market have changed little. Finished paper prices are weakly stable at low levels, and the off - season impact persists, with little short - term improvement in terminal demand. Suppliers' quotes are firm despite weak demand, port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. The market should be cautious about the height of the price increase [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: Globally, the new - season cotton market has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking situation, putting pressure on the market. High - yielding cotton from South America and Australia is on the market, the good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly improved, and there are no obvious abnormal weather conditions in the production areas for now. However, there are still differences in the planted area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the US, which provide potential support and limit the continuous decline of prices. In the domestic market, there is a game between the expectation of tightened supply and weak downstream consumption, and the short - term upward momentum of futures prices has slowed down [5][6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at high levels. The recent price increase is due to overall positive commodity sentiment, the drive from the jujube market, and its own fundamental support, including low old - season inventory, a slight reduction in new - season production, and a year - on - year increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples. In the later period, low old - season inventory increases the possibility of a supply gap between the old and new seasons, and the high opening price of early - maturing apples further increases the market's expectation of a high opening price, but the extent of the increase is limited, and the actual situation depends on the new - season production, quality, and harvest progress [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: After a continuous sharp rise in commodities, the sentiment has cooled. This week, short - covering has led to a collective sharp rebound in commodities, and jujube futures prices have followed the upward trend. The jujube futures have been in a wide - range oscillation. The warehouse receipts have slightly flowed out, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to widen and then oscillated more sharply. The current spot inventory of jujubes is seasonally decreasing, but the overall remaining inventory is still not low. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the fruit - setting period from late July to August [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2510**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The main logic is that general consumption restricts the spot price, the new - season initial production estimate is better than before, and the overall futures price is expected to remain within a range. The support range is 7300 - 7350, and the pressure range is 8000 - 8100 [16]. - **Jujube 2601**: Hold long positions. The main logic is that the overall commodity sentiment is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Sugar 2509**: Short - term band trading. The main logic is that the external raw sugar continues to decline, the domestic spot price is firm but import pressure is suppressing, and the futures price is in a narrow - range consolidation. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [16]. - **Pulp 2507**: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamental situation is stable, finished paper prices are weak, overseas prices have been adjusted downward, and the recent domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [16]. - **Cotton 2509**: Reduce long positions at high prices. The main logic is that previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices are disturbing the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,900 tons. As of July 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 435,200 tons. The estimated national apple output from the bagging survey is 36.5904 million tons, a 2.03% decrease from the previous year. According to Mysteel statistics, the 2025 - 2026 apple production season shows a slight increase trend, with the preliminary estimated national output of 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [17]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable, storage merchants are willing to sell, and merchants purchase on demand. In the Qixia area, the mainstream transaction price of cold - storage paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods is 3.0 - 3.8 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi, the Qinyang variety has been gradually listed, with the price in the Qianxian area similar to last year and the price of good - quality goods in the Tongchuan area higher than last year. In the sales areas, the sales speed is slow, and the price is stable [18]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 18, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons or 1.57% compared to the previous week and a 71.08% increase year - on - year. Affected by the rise in the futures price, the spot prices in various sales areas have slightly increased, and there are more downstream price - inquiring customers. However, due to the off - season, terminal demand support is limited, and market transactions are mainly for goods reselling. Attention should be paid to the flower - setting and fruit - setting situations in the new - season production areas [19]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of Wednesday morning, the quoted price of sugar - making enterprises in the Kunming spot market remained at 5860 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. Some merchants quoted 5830 - 5840 yuan per ton in the Kunming market. The spot market quoted prices of sugar - making enterprises in Guangxi were adjusted down to 6010 - 6030 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price), and some merchants' quoted prices were adjusted down to 6010 - 6020 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price) [21]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market Although demand is weak, suppliers' quotes for imported NBSK have been firm in the past week. Port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. Arauco announced on July 17 that the order price of its Uruguay Punta Pereira factory's bleached hardwood pulp in July would be reduced by 10 US dollars per ton to 490 US dollars per ton. At the same time, it will resume quoting prices for Chinese customers for its bleached hardwood pulp products from its Chilean pulp mill at 500 US dollars per ton. Brazilian suppliers have informed Chinese buyers that their July bleached hardwood pulp quote is 500 US dollars per ton. The South American bleached hardwood pulp evaluation price is 490 - 500 US dollars per ton, the same as last week [23][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market As of July 21, 2025, the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the peak flowering and boll - setting period, with a flowering rate of about 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 5.8 percentage points. The average number of bolls is 5.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.3. In the main cotton - producing areas of Argentina, the weather has been sunny recently, which is beneficial for new - cotton picking, and the progress is expected to reach 75%. The processing work will continue until September and October [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 7956 | 27 | 0.34% | | Jujube 2509 | 9575 | 90 | 0.95% | | Sugar 2509 | 5834 | 11 | 0.19% | | Pulp 2509 | 5414 | 46 | 0.86% | | Cotton 2509 | 14180 | - 45 | - 0.32% | [26] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan per kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 410 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15543 | - 6 | - 163 | [34] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 14 - 17). 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 139 | 13 | 42 | Oscillate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1020 | - 1005 | - 655 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 178 | 8 | - 71 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | [50] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 24 - 69). 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8912 | 0 | - 2704 | | Sugar | 21098 | - 261 | 4877 | | Pulp | 255819 | 0 | - 251790 | | Cotton | 9382 | - 54 | - 2728 | [73] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 46 - 84).

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Grains and Oils**: The overall situation of grains and oils is complex. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by factors such as domestic auctions and new - season supply. The price of peanuts is influenced by import volume, weather, and planting area. The supply - demand relationship of various oils (soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil) is also different, with different price trends and trading strategies [3][4][5]. - **Feed**: The feed market is also in a state of change. The price of corn is affected by factors such as import volume and regional supply, and the price of soybean meal is related to the price of CBOT soybeans and the progress of purchasing [6][7]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The livestock and poultry market is sensitive to policies. The prices of pigs and eggs are affected by factors such as market sentiment, consumption seasonality, and production costs [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Market Judgment** - **Oilseeds**: For soybeans (both domestic and imported), the supply is expected to increase, and the prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For peanuts, the new - season production is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be range - bound. For oils, the fundamentals of soybean oil are weak, while palm oil has potential positive factors [12]. - **Proteins**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rise, mainly due to factors such as the reduction of soybean purchases in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: The prices of corn and corn starch are expected to be range - bound, and short - selling orders are recommended to be reduced at low prices [12]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of pigs is expected to rebound, and the price of eggs is expected to bottom out. Appropriate trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [12]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see. However, for soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low prices is recommended [14]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: Different trading strategies are recommended for different combinations of varieties, such as short - selling operations for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - selling operations for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the current spot prices, price changes, and basis data of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures trading [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Daily Data**: The table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the inventory, operating rates of oil plants, and other data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and peanuts, which reflect the current supply and demand situation of the industry [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from different countries and different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, and operating rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Daily Data**: The daily price data of pigs and eggs in different regions are provided, including spot prices, price changes, and other information [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, production rates, and inventory, are presented [23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: The charts show the price trends of pigs and eggs, including futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as breeding costs and profits [27][28][31]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import and domestic inventory data of palm oil [35][37][40]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts show the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and other data in the United States, as well as the domestic soybean oil plant operating rates and inventory [46][47][48]. - **Peanuts**: It includes the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic markets, as well as the peanut processing profit and inventory data [50][51]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: The charts show the inventory, sales progress, import volume, and consumption data of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn alcohol enterprises [54][55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes the operating rates, inventory, and processing profit data of corn starch enterprises [56][58]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts show the spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [58][61][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes the weather conditions in the United States, the growth progress of soybeans, and the inventory data of soybeans and soybean meal [65][67][69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The historical volatility data of various futures varieties and the trading volume and open interest data of corn options are provided, which can be used as a reference for options trading [71][73][78]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The warehouse receipt data of various futures varieties are provided, which can reflect the market supply and demand situation to a certain extent [75][77][80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has decreased, high yields are expected to lead to a bumper harvest. In China, oil mills are accumulating inventory, the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply is relatively loose. The soybean meal futures price rose last week due to macro - sentiment, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] - For corn, in China, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, the demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is mainly based on on - demand replenishment, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3095 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.80%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 18, Brazil's soybean exports reached 743.7 million tons, with a daily average of 53.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and high yields are expected to offset the reduction in sown area. In China, the supply is loose, the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the spot price is stable. The futures price rose due to macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2675 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.26%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: In the first three weeks of July, Brazil exported 90 million tons of corn, with a daily average of 6.4 million tons, a 58% decrease compared to the daily average in July last year. The US corn growth good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the highest since 2016 and unchanged from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - In China, after concentrated grain sales, the trade inventory has decreased. Feed and deep - processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]

Core Insights - The main viewpoint of the article indicates that soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have retraced all gains made during the week due to a directive from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to continue promoting the reduction of soybean meal usage [1] Group 1 - Soybean meal futures experienced a decline following the announcement from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [1] - The market is now questioning how to position itself for future trading in light of this development [1]