Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the short - term and intraday trends of soymeal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, while the medium - term trends are all oscillating [5][8][9]. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: The positive export outlook of US soybeans boosts the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soymeal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soymeal futures prices dominates the market again, with futures stronger than spot, maintaining an intraday oscillation and slightly stronger pattern [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [8]. - **Core Logic**: The lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports US soybean oil futures prices, which continue to run in an oscillating and slightly stronger manner. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw soybeans and the linkage boost from the strengthening of US soybean oil futures prices, and is expected to continue the oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost palm oil futures prices, which have a continuous linkage effect on domestic palm oil futures prices. The domestic palm oil futures prices follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market, and the low enthusiasm of funds restricts the rebound space, showing a short - term oscillating and slightly stronger trend [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is overall bearish, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets lack clear drivers, and the markets are mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The rapeseed meal market has concerns about future supply, but there are also uncertainties [4][5][7] - The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly from South America. The domestic soybean meal spot is relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening [5][6] - Macro - level information is unclear, and the short - term decline of the soybean market is limited. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to widen, and the spreads between different contract months may face pressure [7] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a slight upward trend. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures generally declined slightly. The soybean meal inter - month spreads continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal spreads were relatively stable [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is bearish. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. The US soybean exports were lowered, but the crushing was raised, and the ending stocks slightly increased. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent selling has further slowed down. The Brazilian soybean crushing has decreased, and the Argentine domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and although the supply is also uncertain, it is expected to be in a range - bound operation [6] Group 6: Macro - level Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market has concerns about future supply uncertainty. The international trade has many uncertainties, and the soybean market is not likely to decline significantly in the short term [7] Group 7: Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures oscillate in a narrow range, supported by future supply uncertainty. The US soybean futures have limited decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads may face pressure but have limited decline space. The rapeseed meal is affected by supply uncertainty, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [7] Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [8] - Arbitrage: RM91 reverse arbitrage [8] - Options: Wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures closed higher on Tuesday but remained near a four - year low. Zheng sugar is under short - term pressure and fluctuating [3]. - **Cotton**: The current low inventory of domestic cotton still strongly supports cotton prices. However, due to weak demand in the off - season and inventory pressure on finished products, the upside of cotton prices is limited. In the short term, Zheng cotton may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of import quota policies and adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [16]. - **Red Dates**: The downstream market is in the off - season of consumption, with a relatively light trading atmosphere. The supply of old dates is sufficient. As the jujube fruit grows, the expected reduction in production in the production area may be revised. Red date prices may fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to subsequent temperature changes and the fruit - setting situation of new jujubes [22]. - **Apples**: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared of inventory. For new - season apples, the opening prices of extremely early - maturing varieties such as Tengmu and Qinyang are the same as last year. Due to the small supply, the impact on the market is limited [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Provided closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11, SB, W) and price spreads between different contracts (e.g., SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09) [4]. - **Sugar Basis**: Presented the basis of sugar in Nanning and Kunming for different contracts, along with daily and weekly changes [11]. - **Import Price Changes**: Showed the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, and the price differences between different domestic locations and imported sugar, with daily and weekly changes [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: Provided closing prices, daily price changes, and price change rates of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts (cotton 01 - 09, cotton yarn 01 - 09) [17]. - **Price Spreads**: Presented various price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn, including basis, inter - month spreads, and spreads between cotton and yarn, along with daily price changes [18]. Red Dates - **Futures Month Spreads**: Showed the month spreads of red date futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [23]. - **Price Trends**: Provided price trends of red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade gray dates in main sales areas [25]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Provided closing prices, daily and weekly price change rates of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.), and spot prices of different apple varieties in various regions, along with daily and weekly price change rates [27]. - **Inventory**: Showed the cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide, in Shaanxi, and in Shandong [31][32].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strong demand for soybean crushing and its impact on soybean prices, questioning whether the recent price rebound can be sustained [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The demand for soybean crushing remains robust, indicating a potential upward pressure on soybean prices [1] - Recent price movements suggest a rebound in soybean prices, but sustainability is uncertain [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The article highlights the fluctuations in soybean prices and the factors influencing these changes, particularly focusing on demand dynamics [1] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring market conditions to assess future price trends [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is expected to improve after August, suggesting a long - position strategy for soybean meal futures [1][18]. - Palm oil may experience a short - term correction, but a long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [1][18]. - New - crop corn is likely to face seasonal selling pressure, and a short - position strategy is advised [1][18]. - The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [2][18]. - Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [3][87][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - Corn: The price performance in the past two months was generally in line with expectations. After July, the price of corn futures accelerated its decline [13]. - Oils: The "YP09 spread narrowing" strategy performed well from mid - May to mid - July [14]. - Strength - weakness allocation strategy: In the one - month period until June 13, the multi - short allocation portfolio was profitable by 5.7% [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - Soybean meal: Bullish in 3 - 6 months. Consider long positions in M2509 and M2601 on dips, with stop - loss levels at 2850 and 2950 respectively [18]. - Palm oil: Bearish in 1 month. Consider short positions in the 09 contract, with a profit - taking level at 8500 and a stop - loss level at 8800 [18]. - Corn: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the 11 contract on rallies, with a stop - loss above 2350 and a profit - taking level around 2100 [18]. - Cotton: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the January contract around 14000 yuan/ton, with a profit - taking level at 13000 - 13200 and a stop - loss level at 14300 - 14500 [18]. 3.2.2套利策略 - P2509 - P2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 50 to - 100 and the stop - loss level at 100 [20]. - CF2511 - CF2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 300 (for non - delivery funds) and the stop - loss level at 50 [20]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - Soybean meal: The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is unlikely to drop significantly, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal will improve. Key indicators include Brazilian export CNF premiums and China's monthly soybean imports [21]. - Oils: Palm oil may face a short - term correction as the growth in production picks up in July. However, its downward space is limited due to its cost - effectiveness. Key indicators include China's palm oil inventory and international soybean - palm oil spreads [32]. - Corn: The supply - demand gap in the 25/26 season is likely to shrink. If the old - crop gap is revised downwards, the new - crop price may decline earlier and more significantly. Key indicators include northern port corn inventories and deep - processing enterprise corn inventory - consumption ratios [39]. - Cotton: The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high - cost resource release. The January contract faces heavy hedging pressure. Key indicators include domestic cotton commercial inventories and Zhengzhou cotton 9 - month contract positions [51]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Bullish in the long term, but the upward drive is uncertain in the short term. It is advisable to go long on dips [68][83]. - Palm oil: May face a short - term correction, but long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [68]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the expected reduction in the supply - demand gap [68][70]. - Cotton: The upward space is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [71][86]. - Sugar: The international market is in a bearish cycle, and the domestic market is expected to be weak in the third quarter and may have a phased rebound in the fourth quarter [70]. - Livestock and poultry: The supply of live hogs and eggs is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, and short - position strategies are recommended in the medium - to - long term [70]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month, the agricultural futures sector had a net inflow of funds, with palm oil and soybean oil leading in terms of capital inflow, while corn and rapeseed oil had the largest net outflows [74]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年7月14日）**: The basis and basis rate of each agricultural product variety are provided, which can help investors understand the price relationship between futures and spot markets [78]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [87][88].

处于低位，对玉米采购需求减弱。同时，小麦饲用替代优势明显，饲料企业逐渐加大小麦采购替代玉米， 玉米系产业日报 2025-07-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 2293 59 1054601 | -2 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 吨) 0 玉米淀粉月间价差(9-11):(日,元/吨) 18363 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2639 45 267829 | -2 5 5198 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -20610 | -7222 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | -14076 | -2841 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 185421 | 手) -390 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 15794 | -26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of corn futures is under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is turning pessimistic. The CS2509 contract of corn starch is expected to trade in the range of 2550 - 2750, following the trend of corn [18][98][156]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review CBOT Corn - As of July 14, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 418.5 cents per bushel, up 14.75 cents per bushel week-on-week. As of July 8, the net long position of managed funds was -203,861 contracts, an increase of 2,602 contracts week-on-week [6]. Domestic Corn Futures - As of July 14, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2,302 yuan per ton, down 1.03% week-on-week. The contract's open interest was 1,654,874 contracts, up 5.86% week-on-week. Negative factors include the sporadic listing of southern spring corn, large - scale auctions of imported corn, and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use. Positive factors are low imports, nearly exhausted farmers' remaining grain, and the bottom - support provided by the minimum purchase price of wheat [13]. - As of July 14, the number of corn registered warrants was 194,126 contracts, still significantly higher than in previous years. The average daily trading volume last week was 660,800 contracts [14]. - The term structure of corn futures contracts shows a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with last week, futures prices have generally declined, with the C09 contract showing a significant decline. The C09 - C11 spread has continued to weaken, reaching 30 yuan per ton as of July 14, a decrease of 13 yuan per ton week-on-week [18]. - As of July 14, the national average spot price of corn was 2,417.45 yuan per ton, down 0.62% week-on-week. The basis was 115.45 yuan per ton, up 8.9 yuan per ton week-on-week [23]. Corn Starch - As of July 14, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2,647 yuan per ton, down 1.23% week-on-week. The open interest was 331,542 contracts, up 18.91% week-on-week [104]. - The number of corn starch registered warrants decreased to 18,899 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 4,023 contracts. The average daily trading volume last week was 139,800 contracts, up 6.08% week-on-week [107]. - As of July 14, the average price of Grade - 1 national standard corn starch was 2,874 yuan per ton, down 0.66% week-on-week. The basis was 227 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan per ton week-on-week [111]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts have declined compared with last week, with the 09 contract showing a larger decline, presenting a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. As of July 14, the spread between the corn starch and corn futures 09 contract was 345 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton from last week [117]. Part II: Fundamental Analysis Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - USDA's July 2025/26 balance sheet reduced the beginning inventory by 2 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyi.com's July balance sheet increased the 2025 corn consumption by 2 million tons, with no changes to other items [29][30]. US Corn Growth - As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year. The silking rate was 34%, up from 18% the previous week, and the dough stage rate was 7%, up from 3% the previous week [32]. Corn Imports - Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.9%. Cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a 93.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. In April, imports of substitute crops such as wheat, barley, and sorghum were 2.09 million tons, a 52.1% year-on-year decrease. Cumulative imports in 2025 were 6 million tons, a 60.54% year-on-year decrease [37]. Corn Auction - Since September last year, the net purchase volume of imported corn auctions has been 1.66 million tons [42]. Corn Inventory - Port corn inventories are seasonally decreasing. As of July 4, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.596 million tons, down 4.70% from June 27. The domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 886,000 tons, down 14.89%, and the foreign trade inventory was 13,000 tons, up 333.33% [45]. - The corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises increased slightly to 4.436 million tons as of July 11, 2025, up 1.88% from July 4. The available days of corn inventory for feed enterprises decreased slightly to 31.58 days, down 1.19% from July 4 [53]. Corn Consumption - The corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises decreased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, it was 1.1578 million tons, down 1.57% from July 4 [59]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.7 million tons, a 0.6% month-on-month increase and a 6.9% year-on-year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 39.4%, a 3.1 - percentage - point year-on-year increase [67]. Pig Market - In June, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month, but the month - on - month growth rate narrowed. The sales volume of piglet and sow feed decreased year - on - year [68]. - The hog price fluctuated, and the profit from pig farming was limited. As of July 11, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19 yuan per kilogram. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 160 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 3 yuan per head [77]. - The hog - to - corn ratio was weakly stable. As of July 14, 2025, the Steel Union hog - to - corn ratio was 6.08, down 0.33% week-on-week [83]. Wheat - Corn Substitution - The wheat price remained stable, and the decline in the corn price widened the wheat - corn price spread, but it was still at a low level. The substitution ratio of wheat for feed use was relatively high [85]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 14, 2025, the spread in Heilongjiang Suihua was 490 yuan per ton, up 11.36% week-on-week, and the spread in Shandong Weifang was 450 yuan per ton, down 2.17% week-on-week [123]. - The operating rate and production of corn starch enterprises decreased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, the operating rate was 50.14%, down 1.06 percentage points from July 4, and the production was 259,400 tons, down 2.08% from July 4 [129]. - The losses of corn starch enterprises have increased. - The corn starch inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, the national inventory of major enterprises was 1.337 million tons, up 1.83% from July 4 [140]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 11, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 235,400 tons, down 9.77% from July 4 [146]. Part III: Future Outlook International Market - CBOT corn futures were stable. The expected high yield in the US restrained bottom - fishing buying and short - covering operations. In the second week of July 2025, Brazil shipped 338,400 tons of corn in 9 working days, a 75.66% decrease in the average daily shipping volume compared to July last year. As of the week ending July 10, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,287,159 tons [96]. Domestic Market - This week, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for corn growth, while areas such as Xinjiang, North China, and Huanghuai are experiencing high temperatures and low rainfall, which is not conducive to corn growth. In the next 10 days, some areas in Northeast China may experience short - term waterlogging, and areas such as Shaanxi, Hebei, and Huanghuai may face drought [97]. - Corn futures prices are under downward pressure. Positive factors include the minimum purchase price of wheat in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui, nearly exhausted farmers' remaining grain, and continued growth in feed sales in June. Negative factors are the increasing listing of spring corn in Hubei, the start of imported corn auctions, and the high substitution ratio of wheat for feed use [98]. - Corn starch futures prices are also under downward pressure, following the trend of corn. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2550 - 2750 [156].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - **相关资讯**: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - **策略建议**: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - **重要咨讯**: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - **逻辑分析**: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - **持仓建议**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - **逻辑分析**: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - **交易策略**: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - **逻辑分析**: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - **交易策略**: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - **逻辑分析**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - **策略建议**: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - **交易策略**: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - **重要资讯**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - **交易逻辑**: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - **交易策略**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - **重要资讯**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - **交易策略**: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - **重要资讯**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - **交易策略**: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategies for both the soybean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is minor and in line with market expectations. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to remain good. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and future focus should be on the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [3] - In the domestic corn market, there is an increase in supply, a lackluster demand, and changes in the market atmosphere due to import auctions [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2655 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2810 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2790 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton [1] - US Data: As of July 13, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 47%, and the pod - setting rate was 15%. As of July 10, the US soybean export inspection volume was 14.70 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4641 tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 91.4% of the annual export target [2] 2. Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.30%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton [4] - US Data: As of July 13, the US corn good - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 34%, and the wax - ripening rate was 7%. As of July 10, the US corn export inspection volume was 128.7 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small, in line with expectations. The US soybean good - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, and the soybean meal inventory is rising rapidly [3] 4. Market Analysis - Corn - In China, the supply of corn increases due to auctions and storage issues. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and the breeding season is off - peak. Import auctions show a change in market sentiment [5] 5. Strategy - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4][6]

Research Views Corn - Corn futures on the September contract first rose and then fell on Tuesday, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through support and declined rapidly, with futures significantly at a discount to spot prices. On Monday, this attracted buying, driving up the futures price. Over the weekend, corn prices in Northeast China declined, and in North China, prices continued to fall due to high arrivals at deep - processing plants and enterprises' price - cutting purchases. Traders sold actively to realize profits, and the market supply was relatively abundant. With continuous import corn auctions and poor trading results, the market's bullish sentiment weakened. Technically, the September contract should pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton, and the recommendation is to continue shorting after the rebound ends. The view is bearish [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to good growth of US soybeans. The crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week and higher than the market expectation of 67%. NOPA data indicated that the US soybean crush volume in June was 185.709 million bushels, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. US soybean oil inventory dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% month - on - month and 15.8% year - on - year decline. In the domestic market, oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but terminal demand was weak, and soybean meal inventory accumulated rapidly. Some factories either suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - supporting strategy. The market is closely watching the development of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The view is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to hold long spreads for the September - January and January - May contracts of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - BMD palm oil fell 2% on Tuesday due to profit - taking and weak export data. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.3% - 6.2% compared with the same period last month, indicating weakening export demand. The decline in crude oil prices also exerted pressure on palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June reached an 11 - month high. In the domestic market, the fats and oils market continued to oscillate, with palm oil and soybean oil slightly rising and rapeseed oil slightly falling. The decline in overseas fats and oils prices led to profit - taking by long positions. The spot demand for soybean oil was strong, and inventory was accumulating. Palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased, but the improvement in rapeseed crushing margins limited the price of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to conduct intraday trading for single - side positions and hold long spreads for the September - January contracts [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract shifted from August to September. The August 2025 contract continued to oscillate, closing down 0.38%, while the September 2025 contract rebounded slightly from a low level, closing up 0.36% at 3615 yuan/500 kg. Spot prices remained flat. Terminal demand was normal, and most traders bought and sold in line with the market. After the plum - rain season, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season, but considering supply pressure, the expected price peak will be lower than last year. With the contract roll - over, the September contract rebounded slightly from a low level, and its subsequent performance should be monitored. The view is oscillating [1][2]. Pigs - On Tuesday, the main pig contract for September 2025 first rebounded in the morning and then declined, closing down 0.25% at 14,250 yuan/ton. The average daily price of live pigs in China was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average price increased by 0.04 yuan/kg, while prices in Guangdong remained flat, and those in Shandong, Sichuan, and Liaoning decreased slightly. Farmers' selling enthusiasm was fair, but downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were operating at a loss. With supply slightly exceeding demand, pig prices continued to decline. In the short term, the fundamental situation remains unchanged, and the view is that pig prices will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on futures prices [2]. Market Information - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the conditions of US crops mostly improved in the past week. As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of corn remained at 74%, that of soybeans increased by 4 percentage points to 70%, and that of spring wheat increased by 4 percentage points to 54%. Analysts expect favorable weather conditions for crops to continue [3]. - Shipping survey agencies ITS and Amspec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% and 5.29% respectively compared with the same period last month [3]. - A US Bank survey of global fund managers in July showed that 47% of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, about one - third expect one cut, 10% think the rate will remain unchanged, 8% expect three cuts, and only 1% predict more than three cuts [3]. - The Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China emphasized at a meeting on July 15 the need to achieve the annual grain output target of about 1.4 trillion catties, strengthen high - standard farmland construction, and prevent disasters [4]. - The IMEA reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, from July 7 - 11 was 443.58 reais/ton, down from 458.28 reais/ton in the previous week. The state's soybean meal price was 1482.06 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 5879.53 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided in the given text [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][20][24][25].