Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11% and spot silver increasing over 10%, reaching a new historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 175%, significantly outpacing gold [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Spot silver prices have reached $79.19 per ounce, surpassing the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil, which closed at $56.93 [1] - The last time silver prices exceeded oil prices was in April 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to high demand from both investors and the industrial sector, with industrial demand now accounting for 50% to 60% of total silver demand [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling, indicating a strong demand despite reductions in U.S. solar support [3] - The global supply of "pure silver" is nearly exhausted, with most silver now being produced as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [3] - The market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, with a projected cumulative shortfall of approximately 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025 [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Current silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces by 2025, while supply is expected to be only 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [4] - COMEX silver inventories have decreased by 70% since 2020, and London vaults have seen a 40% decline, with some regions having only 30 to 45 days of available silver inventory [4] - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at levels difficult to justify based on fundamentals, with predictions of a potential decline in silver prices to around $42 by the end of next year [5][6]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 有色金属 反内卷与逼仓情绪升温，铜价创历史新高 贵金属：长期宽松预期不变，金银再创新高。周内美国 2025 年三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率 初值 4.3%，大幅高于预期值 3.3%和前值 3.8%；实际 GDP 同比 2.3%，高于前值 2.1%和 2000 年至今的均值 2.2%。三季度 PCE 通胀、核心 PCE 通胀环比折年率分别为 2.8%、2.9%， 高于前值 2.1%、2.6%。若将净出口、存货变化、政府支出剔除，则三季度美国实际 GDP 环 比折年率为 2.6%，略高于二季度的 2.5%和 2022 年以来的均值 2.3%。与 GDP 增长形成反 差的在就业市场，11 月 ADP 就业人数仅-3.2 万人，季调后非农就业 6.4 万人，两项数据均 显示美国就业市场仍处于疲软状态，我们认为美联储仍有降息的必要性，流动性宽松预期仍 然利好金银价格上涨。此外，白银现货租赁利率在今年 10 月一度超过 35%，近期仍维持在 6%左右的高位，远高于正常融资成本，也反映出实物白银出借意愿极低，现货市场供应紧 张，本周白 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continue to rise, with COMEX silver and copper increasing by 18.0% and 6.2% respectively from December 19 to December 26, and annual increases of approximately 172% and 45% [1][2] - The rise in precious metals and non-ferrous metals is supported by a declining dollar cycle, changes in global liquidity, and increased demand from new industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [2][3] - Supply growth is constrained due to geopolitical risks, shrinking mine output, and rising ESG costs [3] Group 2 - The acceleration in silver and copper prices in December is attributed to the U.S. releasing a new critical minerals list, which includes these metals, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - Concerns regarding U.S. tax policies under the Trump administration have also influenced copper prices, while limited supply of silver for delivery has added upward pressure on prices [4] - The narrative surrounding precious and non-ferrous metals is expected to continue, with a focus on the weakening dollar and the restructuring of global supply chains [5] Group 3 - Global stock markets have shown a strong performance, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rising by 1.22% and 1.40% respectively, supported by expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy [6][7] - Commodity prices are influenced by low inventory levels and tight supply, with silver and copper experiencing significant price increases [8] - The bond market has shown mild fluctuations, with U.S. Treasury yields declining slightly, reinforcing expectations of continued liquidity [9] Group 4 - The Chinese asset market is seeing a revival in technology narratives, with significant gains in sectors related to precious metals and new energy [10][12] - The A-share market has shown a notable increase, with the overall index rising by 2.78% and a significant uptick in trading volume [10] - Valuation metrics indicate a divergence in performance between growth and value stocks, with growth sectors leading the market [12] Group 5 - The U.S. economy continues to show signs of a soft landing, with Q3 GDP growth exceeding expectations at an annualized rate of 4.3% [13][14] - Consumer spending and net exports have been key contributors to GDP growth, while inflation remains a concern [15] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with ongoing discussions about the timing and extent of future rate cuts [18]

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continue to rise, with COMEX silver and copper increasing by 18.0% and 6.2% respectively from December 19 to December 26, and annual increases of approximately 172% and 45% [1] - The rise in precious metals and non-ferrous metals is supported by a declining dollar cycle, geopolitical changes, and increased demand from new industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [2][3] - Supply growth is constrained due to geopolitical risks, shrinking mine output, and rising ESG costs [3] Group 2 - The acceleration in silver and copper prices in December is attributed to the U.S. releasing a new critical minerals list, which includes these metals, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - Concerns regarding tariffs under the Trump administration have also influenced copper prices, while limited supply of silver for delivery has added upward pressure on prices [4] - The narrative surrounding precious and non-ferrous metals is expected to continue, with potential risks of asset pricing becoming one-sided [5] Group 3 - Global stock markets have shown a strong performance, with technology and non-ferrous sectors leading the way, while the bond market remains stable [6] - The MSCI developed and emerging markets recorded gains of 1.12% and 1.71% respectively, indicating a recovery in emerging markets [6] - The performance of commodities is influenced by low inventory and tight supply, with silver and copper prices breaking previous highs [8] Group 4 - The U.S. GDP data for Q3 indicates a soft landing under the interest rate cut cycle, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, surpassing market expectations [13][14] - Consumer spending and net exports were significant contributors to GDP growth, while residential and construction investments were a drag [14] - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling further rate cuts, although there is a divergence in opinions regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [15][16] Group 5 - The Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, with infrastructure projects and traditional industries expected to see a market space increase of 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [25][26] - The focus on optimizing traditional industries includes supply-side structural reforms and enhancing product quality [26][27] - New industries such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries are being prioritized for innovation and market regulation [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen strong price increases, with London spot gold rising by 2.36% to $4449.40 per ounce and Shanghai gold increasing by 4.70% to ¥1016.30 per gram. Silver prices also surged, with London spot silver up 8.11% to $69.74 per ounce and Shanghai silver up 23.01% to ¥18319 per kilogram [5][10] - Key factors driving the recent price increases include potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and economic performance, with the U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 reaching 4.3%, exceeding expectations. However, there are concerns about potential economic slowdown in Q4 due to government shutdown impacts [5][6] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, particularly regarding Ukraine, and the potential for U.S. monetary policy changes are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term. The report suggests that the "rate cut trade" and "Trump 2.0" policies will provide strong upward momentum for gold prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In the last two weeks, gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with gold prices in London and Shanghai rising by 2.36% and 4.70%, respectively, while silver prices surged by 8.11% in London and 23.01% in Shanghai [10][11] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience with a Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.3%, and personal consumption expenditures also exceeded expectations. However, there are concerns about a potential slowdown in Q4 due to government shutdown effects [5][6] Positioning and Trading Volume - The report notes changes in trading volumes, with Shanghai gold holdings increasing by 1.03% to 352,200 contracts, while silver holdings decreased by 1.71% to 774,700 contracts [10][11] Domestic and International Price Differences - The report indicates that the domestic gold price differential is -15.65 yuan per gram, while the silver price differential is 296.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting recent market dynamics [62] Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) is -$112.60 per ounce, indicating a decrease of $129.75 from two weeks prior, while the domestic gold basis is -7.50 yuan per gram [65]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11% and spot silver increasing over 10%, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 175%, significantly outpacing gold [1][3] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The current price of silver has surpassed that of WTI crude oil, with silver at $79.19 per ounce and oil at $56.93 per barrel, a situation not seen since April 2020 [1][3] - The market has experienced a supply shortage for five consecutive years, with an estimated cumulative shortfall of 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025, indicating a structural deficit with no quick resolution in sight [6] Group 2: Demand Factors - Industrial demand for silver has risen to account for 50% to 60% of total demand, driven by its essential role in various industries, including solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics [3][4] - The solar industry alone consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling, highlighting the growing industrial demand despite potential reductions in U.S. solar support [4] Group 3: Supply Constraints - There is little prospect for significant new silver production, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being a byproduct of mining other metals like copper and gold [5] - COMEX silver inventories have decreased by 70% since 2020, and London vaults have seen a 40% drop, with available silver stocks in some regions only sufficient for 30 to 45 days of demand [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express concerns that precious metal prices have reached levels difficult to justify by fundamentals, with predictions of a potential decline in silver prices to around $42 by the end of next year [7][8] - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of short-term catalysts and long-term structural factors, with a warning that the rapid increase may lead to heightened market volatility and potential corrections [8]

Market Overview - The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.14%, down 2 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.69% to 98.0[3] - The A-share market saw all indices rise, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 leading the gains[3] - Gold prices increased by 4.24% this week, driven by a short squeeze in silver, leading precious metals to outperform global assets[3] Capital Flows - In the week ending December 24, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $12.6 billion, while domestic capital inflows reached $71.32 billion[3] - The US stock market saw a significant inflow of $222.6 billion into fixed income funds, while Chinese equity markets attracted $83.9 billion[16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at the 87.5th percentile over the past decade, trailing only the S&P 500 and CAC 40[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares slightly decreased but remains at a historically neutral level[15] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 index has shown a low recovery, indicating a more optimistic pricing of volatility compared to the previous week[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 increased to 1.08, reflecting a slight rise in bearish sentiment[3] Economic Data - The US consumer confidence index fell significantly to 51.0, indicating a cooling economy[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 increased to 82.3%, up from 77.9% the previous week[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant weekly increase of 6.3%, driven by rising prices of lithium, copper, gold, and silver, although stock prices remain stagnant compared to commodity price increases. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit non-ferrous metals as they are expected to gain from overseas inflation [1] - The report expresses optimism about the valuation recovery potential in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly for lithium, copper, silver, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased, with COMEX gold at $4540.1 per ounce (+4.10%) and silver at $79.0 per ounce (+18.14%). The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have contributed to this rise, alongside strong demand from central banks and ETFs [2] - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have risen, with LME copper at $12133.0 per ton (+3.46%) and SHFE copper at ¥98600 per ton (+6.53%). Supply constraints and reduced processing fees are influencing the market, while demand from downstream industries is currently subdued [3] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have shown a slight increase, with LME aluminum at $2956.5 per ton (+1.35%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥22335.0 per ton (+1.66%). The macroeconomic environment and liquidity are supporting prices, despite a trend towards seasonal weakness in demand [8] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at ¥337560 per ton (-0.4%). Supply remains tight, and concerns about imports from key regions persist, while demand is expected to rise due to the electronics sector [9] Energy Metals - Lithium prices have surged, with carbonate lithium futures at ¥130520 per ton (+17.2%). The market anticipates increased demand for energy storage and power batteries, with a positive outlook for lithium prices in 2026 [10] - Recommended stocks include Dazhong Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Yongxing Materials [10] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are showing mixed trends, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide at ¥595500 and ¥607500 per ton, respectively. The approval of export licenses may boost demand [13] - Recommended stocks include Huahong Technology, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [13]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.21% to $12,133.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 5.95% to 98,700 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 14.96% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 88,200 tons year-on-year [1] - High copper prices are suppressing market demand, leading to a decline in operating rates for domestic wire and cable enterprises [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.03% to $2,956.50 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.99% to 22,400 yuan per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 617,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 17,000 tons [2] - The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% due to weak orders and high aluminum prices [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.24% to $4,505.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 15.73 tons to 1,068.27 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks are influencing the gold market, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [3] - The market is anticipating significant developments in international relations that could impact gold prices [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 3.33% this week [4] - China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is boosting demand forecasts for rare earths [4] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 6.94% to 103,400 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 3.22% to 89,800 yuan per ton [5] - Lithium production increased to 22,200 tons this week, with a slight rise in output [5] - The supply-demand balance remains stable, with strong demand from the new energy sector supporting high prices [5] Group 6: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.85% this week, attributed to profit-taking by speculative funds [4] - The outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [4] - Resource scarcity and reduced production from overseas mines are expected to support upward price trends [4] Group 7: Tin - Tin price decreased by 1.07% this week, with inventory increasing by 4.72% [4] - Supply disruptions in major overseas tin mining regions are contributing to price fluctuations [4] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to expected demand growth in sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [4] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 7.0% to $15,700 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 12.0% to 125,000 yuan per ton [5] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential supply tightening from Indonesia [5] - Current market dynamics reflect a balance between strong expectations and weak demand realities [5]