Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventories, and a continuous decline in the cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 118,040 yuan/ton and closed at 117,350 yuan/ton, a - 0.58% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,410 (- 22,103) lots, and the open interest was 107,986 (- 3,599) lots. The price oscillated around the 20 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate between 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with the breakthrough direction depending on the Fed's policy decisions [1] - **Nickel Ore**: There were occasional inquiries in the nickel ore market but no transactions. The price of nickel ore stabilized. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. In Indonesia, the December (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 34,361 (- 139) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 252,528 (- 816) tons [2] Strategy - The strategy for nickel is to mainly conduct range operations for the single - side trading, while there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 9, 2025, the main contract of stainless - steel 2601 opened at 12,510 yuan/ton and closed at 12,500 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 69,080 (- 32,560) lots, and the open interest was 78,164 (- 4,171) lots. It followed the Shanghai nickel trend, with an oscillating downward trend and shrinking trading volume. In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate between 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the breakthrough direction depends on the Fed's policy decisions [3] - **Spot**: With the weakening of the futures market, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and they mainly purchased on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 520 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 886.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - The single - side strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

| 观点与策略 | | --- | 2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏弱震荡，关注尼日利亚停矿事件发酵 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注新疆环保事件发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：反内卷核心标的，低买思路为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,790 | 30 | 710 | 3,740 | -2,240 | -3,060 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,500 | 75 | 135 | 210 | -35 | -355 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 107,217 | 3,895 | 21, ...

Core Viewpoint - Stainless steel prices have seen a slight increase this week, but demand remains weak, leading to concerns about the market's ability to absorb supply pressure. The industry anticipates continued price fluctuations and is closely monitoring macroeconomic policies and production plans from steel mills [3][5]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - Stainless steel futures prices rebounded slightly this week, with the main contract closing at 12,500, reflecting a 1.09% increase. However, trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - The current market is characterized by weak demand, primarily driven by essential purchases, as the overall consumption power is insufficient to support prices. The inventory levels remain high, and the market is experiencing mixed performance in transactions [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The stainless steel spot price increased by 50 yuan this week, but the market is still in a traditional off-season with declining downstream demand. Traders are under pressure to reduce prices for cash flow as year-end approaches [4][5]. - The macroeconomic environment has seen many monetary policies introduced, but fiscal policy implementation has been slow, limiting the stimulus effect on the real economy. The supply side is expected to ease as steel mills increase maintenance in December, potentially reducing supply pressure [4][5]. Inventory and Production Insights - The registered warehouse inventory for stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,500 tons to 61,619 tons this week, indicating ongoing inventory reduction. However, the market's ability to digest inventory remains a concern [4][5].

2025年12月07日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 弱势震荡，反弹空间有限 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 2025/10/31 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)( ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The nickel market has a supply surplus and high inventories, so nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market has low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and stainless - steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,870 yuan/ton and closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 103,322 (-9,126) lots, and the open interest was 118,041 (-577) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a weak oscillation trend. After the recent macro - sentiment market ended, the fundamentals remained in a surplus situation, and the nickel price entered a narrow oscillation range [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, and the prices were weakly stable. The market was basically in a situation of having prices but no goods, waiting for new tenders from mines. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. Downstream iron plants were in a loss, and had a price - pressing mentality when purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants planned to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium went to +25, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,096 (+2,501) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] - **Strategy** - With high inventories and a continuous supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy for single - side trading is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless - steel opened at 12,465 yuan/ton and closed at 12,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 84,742 (+4,381) lots, and the open interest was 96,076 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless - steel showed a slight downward oscillation trend, performing weakly. Caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, both long and short sides lacked a clear direction, and market trading willingness was low [3] - After several days of small rebounds, the stainless - steel spot market returned to normal, with stable spot quotes and a few cases of selling at a discount. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 881.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel industry is a crucial part of China's steel sector's high-quality development, playing a significant role in supporting major national projects and technological advancements [1] Industry Overview - The stainless steel industry has been expanding its production capacity despite a backdrop of supply exceeding demand in the domestic steel market [1] - The capacity utilization rate in the stainless steel sector is lower than that of the overall steel industry, indicating inefficiencies [1] - Intense competition characterized by product homogeneity has led to severe "involution" and a significant decline in profitability for enterprises, posing risks to the industry's sustainable development [1] Industry Concentration and Recommendations - The stainless steel industry exhibits a high level of concentration, which provides a foundation for addressing "involution" and enhancing self-regulation [1] - Four recommendations for high-quality development in the stainless steel industry include: 1. Strengthening industry self-discipline and opposing "involution" to promote healthy development [1] 2. Emphasizing technological innovation to elevate industry standards [1] 3. Promoting energy-saving and environmental protection transformations for green and low-carbon development [1] 4. Cultivating the domestic market and fostering collaborative development across the industry chain [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound. For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to stay in a low - level震荡 state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 118,050 yuan/ton and closed at 117,870 yuan/ton, a change of 0.11% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 112,448 (+23,926) lots, and the open interest was 118,618 (-3,306) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued a slight rebound, supported by the improved liquidity expectation as the probability of a 25 - bp Fed rate cut in December approached 90%. However, fundamentals suppressed the price, resulting in limited rebound strength with an amplitude of about 1.12%. In November, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a 14.85% month - on - month decrease, narrowing the surplus situation [1] - The nickel ore market was quiet with a wait - and - see attitude. Nickel ore prices were under pressure due to recent lower transactions and weak downstream ferronickel prices. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and northern mines had not started new tenders. Downstream iron plants, facing losses, tried to lower raw - material prices, and some planned production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium was +25 [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands were generally stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed - 50 yuan/ton to 4,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 32,595 (+244) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 80,361 (-14,747) lots, and the open interest was 96,947 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel continued to be led by the Shanghai nickel price and showed a slight rebound, but the amplitude was only 65 yuan/ton, the smallest in recent times. Fundamentals changed little recently, and the continuous rebound trend might continue due to the increased Fed rate - cut expectation, but the rebound strength was expected to be limited [3] - Market confidence had increased recently, and transactions improved to some extent. However, due to fundamental constraints, spot trading cooled today compared with yesterday, and quotes were basically flat. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]