证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度整体回升，焦炉、高炉、 沥青、PTA、轮胎开工率均升高，螺纹钢产量下降。第二，商品房成交 面积回落，存销比下降；土地供应面积下降，住宅用地成交溢价率持 续回升。第三，物价整体回升，原油、焦煤、有色价格均上涨，螺纹 钢下跌；农产品延续季节性上行趋势，其中猪肉、鸡蛋价格上涨，水 果、蔬菜下跌。短期重点关注反内卷及增量政策落地、房地产市场恢 复情况及海外降息影响。 ⚫ 生产：热度整体回升，焦炉、高炉、沥青、PTA、轮胎开 工率均升高 9 月 12 日当周，焦炉产能利用率升高 2.97 pct，高炉开工率升 高 3.43 pct，螺纹钢产量减少 6.75 万吨；石油沥青开工率升高 6.8 pct；化工 PX 开工率与前一周持平，PTA 升高 6.87 pct；汽车全钢胎 开工率升高 5.81 pct，半钢胎开工率升高 5.99 pct。 ⚫ 需求：商品房成交回落，BDI 指数大幅回升 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S134 ...

Economic Growth Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2% from January to August[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year in August, a decrease from 3.7% in July, with a cumulative growth of 4.6% from January to August[1] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.5% from January to August, down from 1.6% in July[1] Industrial Production Insights - The slowdown in industrial production is attributed to weakened external demand and insufficient domestic demand, with August's industrial added value growth down by 0.5 percentage points[3][4] - Manufacturing output growth was 5.7% in August, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, primarily impacting overall industrial growth[4] - Export delivery value for industrial enterprises fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, marking the first negative growth since 2024[4] Consumer Spending Trends - The slowdown in retail sales is influenced by last year's consumption policies and declining food prices, with August's retail sales growth at 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from July[6] - Optional consumer goods retail sales showed improvement, likely due to the wealth effect from rising stock markets, with categories like clothing and cosmetics seeing increased sales growth[8] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth for the first eight months was 0.5%, reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points from previous values, with all major investment sectors experiencing downturns[9][12] - Manufacturing investment growth was 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points, while high-tech manufacturing sectors like computer and aerospace equipment saw significant growth rates of 12.6% and 28.0% respectively[10][11] Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in September, with industrial and retail growth potentially declining further, while investment growth may stabilize[2][15] - Anticipated macroeconomic policies in Q4 may include increased fiscal measures and interest rate cuts to counteract external demand slowdowns and support the real estate market[15]

摘要： HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 5 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 究 察 宏 观 2025年9月15日 [Table_Title] 8月经济数据普遍继续回落且不及预期 ——宏观数据观察 [table_main] 事件要点： 8月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，预期3.9%，前值3.7%，较前值 下降0.3个百分点。全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，预期5.7%，前值 5.7%，较前值下降0.5个百分点，低于市场预期。1-8月固定资产投资0.5%，预期 0.4%，前值1.6%，大幅下降1.1%且远低于预期；其中，8月基建投资当月同比- 5.9%，前值-5.1%，降幅较前值扩大0.8%；制造业投资当月同比-1.3%，前值- 0.3%，降幅较前值扩大1%；房地产开发投资当月同比增长-19.9%，降幅较上月扩 大2.9%，商品房销售面积同比增长-11%，降幅较前值扩大2.6个百分点，商品房销 售额同比增长-14.8%，降幅较前值扩大0.7个百分点。 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱： ...

证券研究报告—公募基金周报 撰写日期：2025 年 09 月 15 日 公募基金周报（20250908-20250912） 投资要点 A 股市场本周延续反弹态势，呈现震荡上行走势。成长风格表现亮眼， 带动 TMT 主题基金同步上行。多数量化指数增强型产品本周超额收益表现 平平。从资金面来看，两市周度日均成交额环比下滑 10.63%，在当前结构 性行情下，若成交量持续萎缩，高位板块的筹码必将松动分化，市场将从单 边上涨转为区间震荡格局，建议关注低位板块的补涨行情。四类股指期货合 约基差表现分化，IM 合约基差大幅贴水，而 IF 合约基差升水幅度较大。 主动权益产品根据本周涨幅排序：深度低估策略中排名前三的分别为 融通行业景气 A（9.13%）、华润元大量化优选 A（7.37%）、华安安进灵活配 置 A（7.01%）；高成长策略中排名前三的分别为东方阿尔法优势产业 A （12.19%）、华夏见龙精选（11.90%）、信澳景气优选 A（10.12%）；高质量 策略中排名前三的分别为汇安成长优选 A（7.64%）、易方达中盘成长 （6.73%）、添富核心精选 LOF（6.54%）；质量低估策略中排名前三的分别为 华安 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Diffusion Index Model - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model [5][27] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industry performance. It selects industries with strong upward momentum for allocation [26][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the diffusion index for each industry, which reflects the proportion of stocks in the industry with positive momentum. - Industries are ranked based on their diffusion index values, and the top-performing industries are selected for portfolio allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (0.99), Banking (0.969), Communication (0.951), Steel (0.95), Non-ferrous Metals (0.947), Retail (0.934) [27][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance over the years. While it captured trends effectively in 2021, it struggled during market reversals in 2024. It has been tracking performance for four years [26][27]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: 4.53% [25][30] - September 2025 average weekly return: 2.79%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **Model Name**: GRU Factor Model [6][33] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities [38]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU network is trained on historical minute-level volume and price data to generate industry factors. - Industries are ranked based on their GRU factor scores, and the top-ranked industries are selected for allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (4.56), Construction (3.8), Real Estate (3.6), Textile & Apparel (0.08), Comprehensive Finance (-0.07), Home Appliances (-0.16) [6][34]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short-term scenarios but struggles in long-term or extreme market conditions. It has faced challenges in capturing excess returns in 2025 due to concentrated market themes [33][38]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: -7.37% [33][36] - September 2025 average weekly return: 1.70%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: -0.23% [36] Backtesting Results of Models Diffusion Index Model - **YTD Excess Return**: 4.53% [25][30] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 2.79% [30] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **YTD Excess Return**: -7.37% [33][36] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 1.70% [36] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: -0.23% [36]

这份白皮书聚焦2024年天猫住宅家具消费市场，从大环境到细分品类都给出了清晰洞察。先看地产背景：2024上半年全国商品房销售金额、面积累计同比 分别降25.0%、19.0%，不过6月随着开发商加大推盘、517新政效果显现，降幅收窄到14%左右；二手房走"以价换量"路线，21城上半年成交面积跌幅小于 新房，一线城市成交还率先回正。 家具行业自身，2024年上半年规模以上企业营收3101亿元（同比+5%），利润137.8亿元（同比+3.8%），全球家具电商占比已达30%。消费趋势上，大家 对空间需求更细了——儿童房、老人房优先安排，独立健身空间、衣帽间成热门新增项；材质偏爱自然环保的，木材、真皮、纯棉麻这类材料搜索量涨得 快；风格方面，中古、复古、奶油风很火，"小户型显大""实用省空间"这类话题浏览量都破亿了。 重点品类里，沙发领域皮艺体量已经超过布艺，大黑牛款、功能沙发卖得好；床类皮 艺成主流，黑胡桃木、头层牛皮材质受欢迎，悬浮床、电动智能床 增速高；桌类里实木餐桌、电动升降桌、家用茶桌是增长主力，小户型还特别青睐岛台餐桌；柜类则是复古风主导，智能床头柜、组合柜需求上升，环保 实木和金属材质也很受青睐。 报告目 ...

1至8月，全国固定资产投资同比增长0.5%，增速较1至7月回落1.1个百分点，其中民间投资同比下降2.3%。 对于民间投资下降，付凌晖分析，今年以来，受国际环境变化、房地产市场调整等因素影响，民间投资有所放 缓，但扣除房地产开发投资，民间项目投资基本稳定。 1至8月，基础设施投资同比增长2.0%，制造业投资同比增长5.1%，明显快于全部投资增速。房地产开发投资同比 下降12.9%。 国家统计局15日发布的最新数据显示，前8个月主要生产、需求指标保持平稳增长，规模以上工业增加值、服务业 生产指数、社会消费品零售总额、货物进出口增速与1至7月基本相当。经济增长"稳"没有改变。 从8月当月数据看，规模以上工业增加值，服务业生产指数等数据的同比增速较7月略有回落。国家统计局新闻发 言人付凌晖表示，从下阶段情况来看，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，宏观政策发力显效，改 革开放持续深化，国内国际双循环逐步畅通，将支撑经济平稳运行和向好发展。 装备制造业和高技术制造业增势较好 8月份，工业生产较快增长，工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.37%。装备制造业和高技术制造业增势较好， 分别同比增长8.1%和9. ...

港股上午盘三大指数呈现低开高走行情，恒生科技指数涨幅领先，午间收涨1.11%再刷阶段高位，恒生 指数涨0.29%，国企指数涨0.34%，市场做多情绪继续活跃。盘面上，作为市场风向标的大型科技股集 体拉升转涨，阿里巴巴涨约3%，网易、小米涨超1%，快手、京东、美团、腾讯均有涨幅，惟百度跌近 2%；锂电池股涨幅明显，多重利好推动宁德时代股价飙升超7%，并且创下上市新高价，赣锋锂业、中 航创新、比亚迪股份跟涨；工信部发布汽车行业稳增长工作方案的同时，将持续优化促消费优惠政策， 汽车股集体上涨，蔚来汽车、理想汽车涨超5%领衔；生物医药股、煤炭股、脑机接口概念股、半导体 股多数表现活跃。另一方面，首8月全国房地产开发投资同比降12.9%，个人按揭贷款下降10.5%，内房 股集体走弱，影视股、重型机械股、餐饮股、中资券商股、濠赌股多数表现低迷。 ...

A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量（万手） = 总成交额（亿元）▼ | 净流入 (亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 游戏 | 3.59 | 1182.34 | 199.55 | 26.69 | 22 | 2 | | 2 | 电机 | 2.00 | 783.71 | 195.23 | 2.40 | 17 | 8 | | 3 | 电池 | 1.93 | 3210.18 | 1084.52 | -17.36 | ୧୫ | 33 | | 4 | 汽车整车 | 1.90 | 1171.65 | 243.42 | 39.49 | 19 | 3 | | 5 | 汽车零部件 | 1.68 | 4597.06 | 675.17 | 11.55 | 186 | 60 | | 6 | 医疗服务 | 1.39 | 752.56 | 214.06 | 11.98 | 28 | 23 | | 7 | 能源等匿 | 1.29 | 324.26 | 142.57 | 9.06 ...

恒指跌0.3%，恒生科技指数跌0.11%。金融、地产板块回调，贵金属板块走势分化，半导体产业链走 强。 (本文来自第一财经) ...