【金银价大跌+美联储换帅消息发酵，全球市场大跌】20260202 ▶像今天这种情绪市场，对于行业太多的分析意义不大，强如上周末刚发布业绩预增的CPO龙头xys，2倍的业绩增 长也依然从盘中最高12个点的涨幅被砸到不足5%；像有色行业，即使在外资给出6000的金价指引下，多个热点股 已经被预期计提多个跌停板；白酒个股则在避险资金的扎堆下，顶着25年业绩下滑的压力喜获3个涨停；1月一度 走独立行情、多次深V反转的航天，马斯克百万算力卫星的宏图也无法救起。 综合来看，今天的下跌有多个不利因素叠加，美联储恐转鹰+业绩预增落地+金银价回调，导致风险出现集中释 放。 但利空过后，行业还是那些行业，短期需要额外警惕的点是春节长假前资金会减少操作，今天成交的萎缩可能导 致企稳的时间会拉的比较长，但依然看好一季度的行情。 ▶交易总结：在较极端的市场压力下，机构也比较罕见的对权益资产出现了谨慎情绪，今天应该是开年以来首次对 权益资产出现明显的净赎回，虽然个别品类的卖出放在过去一段时间看确实较大，但从单边数据看，依然有多头 在买入，而在主力固收+品种上，其实整体净赎回金额尚可，而且从去年的数据看，此类时点后续往往伴随着市场 的快速 ...

Q S 7 0 , / 12 la 9 S n of ZU d g A- C:4 u . 2 t | 日期 | 上证 | | 深圳 | | 主力净流入 | | 12:51 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 净额 | 净占比 | 是 | | 2026-02-02 4015.75 -2.48% 13824.35 -2.69% -1019.98亿 -3.95% | | | | | | | -694. | | 2026-01-30 4117.95 -0.96% 14205.89 -0.66% | | | | | -948.68亿 | -3.35% | -509. | | 2026-01-29 4157.98 0.16% 14300.08 -0.30% | | | | | -904.57亿 | -2.80% | -502. | | 2026-01-28 4151.24 0.27% 14342.89 0.09% | | | | | -435.98亿 -1.47% | | -184. | | 202 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革与中国经济转型，"转型 牛"还有很大空间，远望又新峰，看好细分龙头。在经历累年下行与估值收缩后，价值股有望出现重要 拐点。该行从盈利-股价匹配度和盈利-拥挤度匹配度两个维度衡量股价尚未充分计入当前盈利预期上修 预期的赛道，建议重视非银/电池/电子/机械/两轮车/商用车等盈利预期上修的低拥挤滞涨板块。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 新经济景气中枢上移，盈利改善范围扩散。2025年四季度经济转型加快，新经济景气中枢明显上移，并 由AI向出海、资源品、服务消费等更多领域扩散。新兴科技产业链呈现出供需两旺的特征，内部细分 涨价赛道明显增多。把握四季度盈利增长的四个结构特征：1)新兴经济仍是四季度业绩主要高增领域。 科技服务业等第三产业用电量在25Q4高增，并带动全社会用电增速在9月后明显上行，这与工业增加值 下行趋势背离明显，新经济主导并拉动经济复苏；2)中下游制造盈利占比提升。通胀整体改善且新经济 成本传导顺畅，CPI-PPI剪刀差扩张，PPI内部中下游价格更强，工业企业利润向TMT、装备制造与有色 化工等行业集中；3)大中盘业绩增长弹性更大。PMI结构 ...

这一轮市场调整的主要原因还是来自外部，导火索就是国际的金银铜和原油等答复波动传导过来，叠加之前获利盘丰厚导致。我个人认为国际大宗市场的 趋势没有改变，短期大波动就是获利丰厚以及政策调整等导致，经过上周五大波动之后，基本上到位，后市就是保持一个区间震荡，黄金问题不大，过一 阵或者说后市是必然还会再创新高的；但是短期资金不敢进来了，或者说不放心买入和持有了，必然会有大量资金抽离的。 对于A股来说是不是砸出"黄金坑"了呢？我认为是的！一方面是黄金短期这么大跌幅，黄金的走势应该就是倒车接人，对于黄金投资要看的长远，短期就 是获利盘丰厚导致；另一方面就A股来说，这个本来就是已经控盘和要走慢牛的情况之下，现在是与全球共振下跌，应该说砸出了一个黄金坑，促进市场 更快的向下寻找到箱体底部和下沿，然后就可以开始牛市的大级别区间震荡了； 从后市操作来看，现在市场的风险释放点和量能活跃资金来源，因为上周五和周一有色集体跌停，导致市场没有流动性，所以没法操作也没法放量和释放 风险。现在最快来看，周二可能有部分有色个股开始开板和释放流动性，但是大概率普遍开板和绝大多数释放资金应该就是在周三了！所以周三这个时间 点是值得关注的！ 要说大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid rotation of sectors in the Chinese capital market, highlighting the shift from traditional commodities to chemical and agricultural sectors, and explores the underlying forces that enable retail investors to quickly form consensus on investment opportunities [4][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sector rotation in the Chinese market has been unprecedented in speed, with traditional commodities like gold and silver giving way to chemicals and agriculture [4]. - This rapid rotation is attributed to a global market thirst for commodities and a compressed investment cycle [4]. Group 2: Attention Economy vs. Intent Economy - The past two decades have been characterized by an attention economy, where the focus is on capturing user attention to generate value [5]. - The emergence of AI marks a shift to an intent economy, where the goal is to understand and fulfill user intentions rather than merely capturing attention [5][6]. Group 3: Information Dynamics - In the intent economy, information access has become democratized, allowing retail investors to obtain insights previously available only to institutional investors, leading to "information equality" [6]. - However, this information equality results in an overwhelming amount of similar information, diluting its unique value and predictive power [6][7]. Group 4: Market Behavior and Investor Psychology - The compression of information processing time leads to a phenomenon where investors feel they possess all necessary information but struggle to ascertain its true value, creating a state of "omniscient anxiety" [7]. - The article introduces the concept of "information appearing as lagging," where rapid dissemination of information can lead to misjudgments about market opportunities [7][8]. Group 5: Consensus Formation - The speed of consensus formation among retail investors has accelerated dramatically, with significant shifts occurring in mere days, contrasting with the months or years required in the past [9]. - New influencers in the market leverage simplified narratives to rapidly implant ideas in the minds of retail investors, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of consensus [9][10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural differentiation pattern last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains while military and power equipment sectors declined [1][7] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise on a month-on-month basis, while military, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1][7] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline and below the average level for recent years [2][8] - The price index showed a notable rebound due to rising commodity prices, while the service sector remained stable and the construction industry required policy support [2][8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations, but the appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair may introduce uncertainties into monetary policy [3][9] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current phase of A-share earnings disclosures is expected to reveal a shift towards new economic growth, with a notable rise in the new economy's growth center, particularly in AI and overseas expansion [4][10] - The market is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on leading companies in specific sectors and the A500 index, as regulatory measures have suppressed short-term speculative trading [4][10] - External disturbances may lead to corrections in previously popular sectors, creating potential opportunities for policy support in heavily pressured indices like the CSI 300 [4][10] Group 4: Investment Directions - Emerging technology remains a primary focus, with value stocks also showing potential; attention should be given to leading companies and the A500 index [5][11] - In the technology growth sector, global demand for AI computing power is driving rapid growth in semiconductor equipment demand, leading to price increases across the entire supply chain [5][11] - In the cyclical sector, low valuations and improving economic conditions suggest opportunities in food, retail, tourism services, and commodities like oil and non-ferrous metals [5][11]

Market Overview - All three major indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.48% to 4015 points and the ChiNext Index down 2.46%. The Hang Seng Index also saw a significant decline, closing down 2.92% [1][8] - Trading volume in the two markets decreased, remaining around 2.6 trillion [1][8] - Among the 31 primary industries, all except food and beverage and banking sectors experienced declines, with 4647 out of over 5300 stocks falling, indicating poor profitability [1][8] External Factors - The precious metals market experienced a sharp decline, impacting market sentiment and contributing to the A-share market's pullback. This was influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who advocates for a "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cut" policy [2][9] - Following Warsh's announcement, the US dollar index rose while gold and silver prices plummeted, with silver dropping 26%, marking its largest historical decline, and gold falling 9%, the worst single-day performance in nearly a decade [2][9] Internal Dynamics - Since mid-December, the index has risen rapidly due to improved liquidity and risk appetite, moving from around 3800 points to near 4200 points. This led to structural opportunities and accelerated sector rotation [3][10] - As uncertainty increased, market sensitivity heightened, prompting a shift from "increasing positions" to "realizing profits and reducing exposure," resulting in a net outflow of funds and overall market pressure [3][11] Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on signs of economic recovery and the unfolding of the spring market, with a potential "second wave" of spring activity anticipated in February [4][11] - Historical data suggests a higher success rate for A-shares in February, particularly for small-cap growth stocks, which typically perform well in the week leading up to the Spring Festival [4][11] Sector Allocation - A balanced approach is recommended to navigate rapid rotations, with a focus on technology sectors supported by performance, such as AI applications, overseas computing power, storage, and wind energy storage [5][12] - For value investments, attention should be given to upstream commodities, which may benefit from geopolitical adjustments and potential mid-term recovery in manufacturing and real estate sectors [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on simple investment themes in ETFs due to the current state of extreme liquidity in global markets, which is likely to lead to valuation premiums for assets with industrial trends, potentially increasing over time [1][10]. Group 1: Simple vs. Difficult Investment Themes - Simple investment themes are defined as those with clear industrial trends, where performance and valuation are on an upward trajectory, benefiting from ongoing liquidity expansion [2][12]. - Difficult investment themes involve high uncertainty regarding product realization and future performance, often relying on speculative investments in volatile market conditions [3][13]. Group 2: Market Summary and Trends - The market has shown significant price increases in commodities and basic components, driven by expectations of price hikes regardless of demand [3][13]. - The article notes that midstream companies are currently undervalued despite the strong demand attributed to AI computing, as evidenced by the stagnation of stocks like Nvidia and optical modules [3][14]. Group 3: Future Market Expectations - The outlook for the first half of 2026 remains optimistic, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to find strong support at 3990 points, followed by a period of consolidation [4][14]. - Key sectors identified for potential investment include non-ferrous metals, optical modules, gaming, Hong Kong internet, and batteries, with optical modules and Hong Kong internet expected to lead the market [4][14]. Group 4: Market Pricing Status of Key Sectors - Non-ferrous metals and chemicals are in a strong expectation and reality phase with low valuations, while gold is anticipated to remain in a price increase channel [5][15]. - The overseas computing sector (ChiNext AI) is characterized by strong expectations and realities with low valuations, suggesting potential strength during market fluctuations [5][15]. - The semiconductor sector is experiencing high valuations due to strong demand for storage chips, with future opportunities likely tied to domestic computing logic [5][15]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities in ETFs - The article suggests focusing on ETFs with significant exposure to optical modules, particularly the ChiNext AI ETF [7][16]. - Attention is also recommended for Hong Kong-focused products, including the Hong Kong Internet ETF, which is expected to perform well in the short term [7][16]. - The domestic AI sector, particularly in big data, is highlighted as having strong potential, with ETFs like the Big Data ETF likely to perform well alongside semiconductor and AI sectors [7][17]. - The acceleration of the digital RMB process positions the Financial Technology ETF as a promising investment opportunity [7][18].

摘要 政策风向：城市更新顶层设计持续强化，各地城市更新实践持续深入。自然资源部、住建部发布《关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通知》，对拟 实施城市更新区域的详细规划进行评估、优化。2024年全国城市更新项目数量60015个，完成总投资额2.9万亿元。城镇老旧小区改造、城中村改造及地下 管网改造等是城市更新重要内容。 境内宏观：2026年1月份，制造业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，不及近年同期平均水平，降幅强于季节性。展望2026年，财政部表态确保总体 支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"，预计宏观政策更加积极有为，托底总需求。 境外宏观：凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，他主张是"降息+缩表"，认为美联储需要为通胀负责。他的政策主张在维持美联储独立性和向特朗普表 衷心之间能够实现更好的平衡。1月美联储按兵不动符合预期，预计2026年或仍有2-3次降息。1月FOMC会议美联储对经济、就业和通胀都表现出了更乐 观的态度，这为重启降息增加了不确定性。 城市更新顶层设计持续强化 观点： 城市更新顶层设计持续强化，各地城市更新实践持续深入，有望成为着力稳定房地产市场和扩大内需的重要抓手。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a structural divergence last week, with cyclical and financial sectors leading gains, while military and power equipment sectors declined [1] - In the industry, oil and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals continued to rise month-on-month, while communications showed improvement; military, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weaker performance than the average for the same period in recent years [2] - The price index showed a notable rebound due to rising commodity prices, while the service sector remained stable, and the construction industry required policy support for continued activity [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, but the change in leadership may introduce uncertainty into monetary policy [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current period is marked by a concentration of earnings disclosures for A-share companies, with signs of economic transformation accelerating in Q4 2025 [4] - New economic growth is expanding beyond AI to include overseas markets, resource products, and service consumption, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [4] - The market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on leading companies in niche sectors and the A500 index, as regulatory measures have dampened short-term speculative sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Directions - Emerging technology remains a primary focus, with significant demand for global AI computing power driving rapid growth in semiconductor equipment and price increases across the industry [5] - Attention should be given to sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, including food, retail, tourism services, and cyclical commodities like oil and chemicals [5]