Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].

Core Insights - The 23rd China International Rubber Technology Exhibition opened in Shanghai on September 17, showcasing over 60,000 square meters of exhibition space with participation from more than 800 exhibitors from over 40 countries and regions [1] - The exhibition spans three days and covers various sectors including rubber machinery, rubber chemicals, raw materials, tires, non-tire rubber products, and rubber recycling [1] - Notable exhibitors include leading global companies such as VMI from the Netherlands, H-F from Germany, and representatives from major Chinese and international firms like Sinopec, SIBUR from Russia, and Shandong Huatai [1][4] Industry Highlights - The exhibition features dedicated areas for inorganic salt industrial functional materials and tire recycling, expanding its coverage compared to the previous year to enhance interaction across the entire industry chain [4] - A comprehensive event called "RubberTalk" is introduced, which includes a rubber technology summit forum, information release sessions, a forum on elastomer technology and engineering, and talent exchange meetings, facilitating collaboration among domestic and international brands and academic research teams [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a collective decline in prices, primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and supply conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the midday close, the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract fell by 2.08% to 15,570 yuan/ton, the 20 rubber futures 2511 contract dropped by 2.34% to 12,300 yuan/ton, and the BR rubber futures 2511 contract decreased by 1.76% to 11,415 yuan/ton [1] - The decline in rubber prices is attributed to reduced bullish sentiment as the market adjusts to a slower pace of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Southeast Asian production regions have entered a production peak season, leading to increased supply expectations for the fourth quarter [2] - Despite the rainy season affecting tapping operations, production is steadily recovering in major domestic and international regions [1][2] - Domestic natural rubber social inventory was reported at 1.235 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous period [2] - The actual demand during the traditional consumption peak season ("Golden September, Silver October") has not met expectations, with downstream enterprises purchasing based on need [2][3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the rubber market faces dual pressures from high production levels and insufficient inventory reduction [3] - The overall demand remains limited, with uncertainties in the demand outlook for tires and automobiles due to global economic slowdown and trade risks [3] - Short-term forecasts suggest that natural rubber prices may continue to operate weakly until October, with attention needed on cost support and policy signals [3]

昨日，橡胶板块集体下跌。截至午盘收盘，沪胶期货2601合约下跌2.08%，报15570元/吨；20号胶期货 2511合约下跌2.34%，收于12300元/吨；BR橡胶期货2511合约下跌1.76%，报11415元/吨。 高宁表示，10月之前预计天然橡胶价格偏弱运行，需关注成本支撑与政策信号。利空因素包括主产区割 胶进度恢复正常、生产旺季供应宽松等。此外，新能源汽车购置税减免政策即将退出，或刺激四季度汽 车消费提前释放。10—12月需重点关注实际供应量和宏观政策力度，若东南亚产区天气较好，供应过剩 格局或延续；若宏观预期改善，天然橡胶价格可能迎来阶段性反弹。 "虽然国内轮胎企业已度过集中检修期，开工率有望回升，但终端消费表现一般，整体需求有限。"陈栋 分析称，海外市场受美国加征关税等因素影响，配套订单难以大幅增长。尽管国内汽车产销数据较好， 对需求形成一定支撑，但难以带动橡胶价格持续上行。 高宁也表示，在全球经济增速放缓的背景下，贸易风险依然存在，轮胎、汽车等商品需求前景存在不确 定性。市场对高价原料的接受意愿较低，叠加大宗商品价格整体走弱，橡胶作为风险资产较难获得资金 青睐。 展望后市，朱美侠认为，当前橡胶市 ...

利用率或以小幅波动为主。ru2601合约短线预计在15300-15750区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12150-1 2600区间波动。 免责声明 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15570 | -310 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12300 | -290 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15 | 0 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 0 | 60 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3270 | -20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 159271 | 12463 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 69153 | 3914 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -30609 | -1558 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -13580 | -893 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 15 ...

Market Overview - On September 18, the rubber sector increased by 0.88%, led by Sanwei Equipment, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Key Performers in Rubber Sector - Yiwai Equipment (831834) closed at 26.00, up 30.00% with a trading volume of 141,700 shares and a transaction value of 332 million [1] - Kexin New Source (300731) closed at 49.72, up 9.39% with a trading volume of 228,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.122 billion [1] - Sanwei Co. (603033) closed at 13.22, up 6.27% with a trading volume of 299,200 shares and a transaction value of 392 million [1] - Zhenan Technology (300767) closed at 23.70, up 5.52% with a trading volume of 316,300 shares and a transaction value of 754 million [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 39.38 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 116 million [2] - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 76.45 million [2] Individual Stock Fund Flow - Zhenan Technology (300767) had a main fund net inflow of 68.72 million, with a retail net outflow of 64.88 million [3] - Kexin New Source (300731) had a main fund net inflow of 60.62 million, with a retail net outflow of 21.22 million [3] - Sanwei Co. (603033) had a main fund net inflow of 9.68 million, with a retail net outflow of 11.59 million [3]

【9月18日国内期市能化板块全线飘绿，合成橡胶期货主力合约下跌】9月18日，国内期市能化板块全线 下挫。合成橡胶期货主力合约开盘报11570.0元/吨，盘中呈低位震荡走势。截至发稿，最高触及11590.0 元，最低探至11380.0元，跌幅近1.85%。目前，合成橡胶行情震荡下行，盘面表现较弱。对于后市，相 关机构给出观点。西南期货预计，本周合成橡胶行情震荡，受产业利润不佳和原料丁二烯价格震荡影 响。原料丁二烯价格企稳，加工亏损略收窄；供应端产能利用率下调至73%附近，同比偏高；需求端企 业排产好于预期，产能利用率上涨；库存端厂家和贸易商库存环比、同比均偏高，下方有支撑。瑞达期 货指出，前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置重启，国内产量提升，供应充足。部分民营装置停车检修，但期现 货市场走弱，库存增加。本周供应减量将体现，现货报盘走低或带动下游备货，库存或小幅下降。需求 方面，上周轮胎企业产能利用率提升，预计本周多数企业维持排产，整体产能利用率小幅波动，br2511 合约短线预计在11250 - 11700区间波动。格林大华期货分析，近期丁二烯价格坚挺，船货到港前可流通 现货偏紧，短期供应有支撑。顺丁橡胶昨日回落，终端压 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for rubber is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for 20 rubber futures opening at 12,550.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by seasonal factors, with expectations for improved terminal consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, despite the current weak performance of rubber prices [1] - Supply constraints are noted due to adverse weather conditions affecting rubber tapping operations in both domestic and overseas production areas, leading to a tightening of raw material availability [2] Group 2 - The macro market sentiment is recovering, and supply disruptions are continuing, leading to a stabilization and potential upward movement in rubber prices [2] - Inventory levels for natural rubber are decreasing, particularly in the Qingdao region, indicating a tightening supply situation [2] - The return of the La Niña phenomenon may impact global weather patterns, although many regions are still expected to experience above-average temperatures [2]

化工日报 | 2025-09-18 天然橡胶社会库存继续下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15880元/吨，较前一日变动-160元/吨；NR主力合约12590元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约11590元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15100元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15000元/吨，较前一 日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1780 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年8月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计66.4万吨，较2024年同期的61.6万吨增加7.8%。1-8月，中国进 口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计537.3万吨，较2024年同期的451.4万吨增加19%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计105万吨，较2024年 ...