Report Information - Report Title: "Rebar Industry Chain Daily Report 2025/6/30" [1] - Researcher: Cai Yuehui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0251444 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0013101 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2510 contract rose and then fell. Macroscopically, China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests to obtain so - called tariff exemptions. If this happens, China will resolutely counter and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, the capacity utilization rate reached 47.75%, and the operating rate of electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to decline. Terminal demand was average, with factory inventories increasing and social inventories decreasing, and the decline in total inventory narrowed. The apparent demand remained around 2.19 million tons. Raw material coal and coke prices declined at the end of the session, weakening cost support, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted from high levels, and the red column shrank. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume of the RB main contract was 2,124,170 lots, down 18,643 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 1,534 lots, down 31,792 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18,221 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,231 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of the RB main contract was 153 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.1784 million tons, up 56,600 tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 47.75%, up 1.25 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.856 million tons, up 32,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.634 million tons, down 53,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.55 million tons, up 53,000 tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 17.3 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.01 million tons, up 16,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to improve [2] Industry News - In the five sub - indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were all above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below the critical point. On the 29th, the Ministry of Water Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a red mountain flood disaster meteorological warning, predicting a high possibility of mountain floods in eastern Sichuan and western Chongqing from 20:00 on the 29th to 20:00 on the 30th. In addition, the Ministry of Water Resources launched a level - IV emergency response for flood prevention in Chongqing, Sichuan, and Gansu on the 29th [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 30, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 825.0, down 1.08%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1404.0, down 0.46% [2]. - For coking coal, the supply of raw materials is gradually improving, the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate is generally decreasing, the clean coal inventory starts to be destocked, the cumulative import growth rate is decreasing, and the total inventory is decreasing. After the safety production month in June, the market expects the coal mine supply in Shanxi to recover [2]. - For coke, the supply of raw materials is gradually improving, the molten iron output is running at a high level, and the profit of independent coking plants is in a loss state. The average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country this period is 46 yuan/ton [2]. - Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - lines of both coking coal and coke are above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and both should be treated with a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 825.00 yuan/ton, down 22.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1404.00 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 742353.00 lots, down 13482.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 57138.00 lots, down 2054.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 29434.00 lots, up 676.00 lots; Net position of the top 20 coke contracts: - 3038.00 lots, down 274.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread: 36.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread: 38.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; Coke warehouse receipts: 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 740.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; Russian main coking coal forward spot: 115.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal: 1230.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal: 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal: 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke: 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main contract basis: 105.00 yuan/ton, up 22.50 yuan; J main contract basis: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants: 321.28 million tons, down 5.08 million tons; Clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants: 231.87 million tons, down 5.52 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants: 59.10%, down 2.24 percentage points; Raw coal output: 40328.40 million tons, up 1397.80 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; Daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 185.00 thousand tons, down 4.50 thousand tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 495.12 million tons, down 28.85 million tons; Coke inventory at 18 ports: 251.89 million tons, down 4.32 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises: 808.98 million tons, up 13.19 million tons; Coke inventory of independent coking enterprises: 113.03 million tons, down 2.55 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills: 781.21 million tons, up 6.55 million tons; Coke inventory of 247 steel mills: 627.75 million tons, down 6.45 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises: 12.39 days, up 0.10 days; Available days of coke for 247 steel mills: 11.22 days, down 0.20 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 738.69 million tons, down 150.65 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 0.00 million tons, down 3926.16 million tons; Coke output: 4237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 73.35%, down 0.22 percentage points; Tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants: - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.84%, unchanged; Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output: 8654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held the second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation [2]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. obtained 49% of the equity of Magang Co., Ltd. through equity transfer and capital increase [2]. - The Zhejiang International Commodity Exchange was officially unveiled in Zhoushan City, realizing a leap - forward expansion from a single oil and gas variety to more categories of commodities [2]. - Trump suddenly stopped the trade dialogue with Canada and said he would set new tariff rates for Canadian goods in the next week [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The HC2510 contract fluctuated on Monday. The overall hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand is resilient, but the cost support weakens as coal and coke prices decline in the late trading. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards with shrinking red bars. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume is 1,525,709 lots, up 999 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 78,901 lots, down 7,318 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the HC daily warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 67,543 tons, down 1,192 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis is 107 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.85%, up 0.04%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 327.24 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 83.59%, up 0.45%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 78.22 million tons, up 1.70 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 262.94 million tons, down 0.71 million tons. The domestic crude steel production is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the steel net export volume is 1,010 million tons, up 16 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales is 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units; the monthly household washing machine output is 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units. Last week, the number of steel mill maintenance and复产 production lines increased compared with the previous week. 9 provinces had steel mills with production line maintenance, with 9 maintenance lines (2 more than the previous week) and 8复产 lines (3 more than the previous week). The production affected by production line maintenance is estimated to be 18.03 million tons this week [2]. Industry News - China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests in exchange for so - called tariff reductions. Canada will impose a 50% tariff on steel products imported from countries without a free - trade agreement with Ottawa that exceed the quota [2].

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 实操视角下的信用主体骑乘库优化 证券研究报告 信用策略周报 20250629 本周聚焦：跨季信用表现如何？7 月，信用博弈哪些结构性机会？ 一、信用，抹平凸点收益 经历前期持续上涨后，当周信用表现趋弱，收益率及利差多数走阔， 其中：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，中短票收益率曲线上 3Y、5Y 凸性稍大， 对应期限收益率及信用利差当周明显压缩。 此外，城投债仍具备配置价值，尤其是中低等级下沉品种和 7 年期左 右超长品种，当前来看票息仍相对丰厚，二级"抢券"情绪仍在。 三、理财跨季扰动可控 近几年，理财资产配置结构上更加注重流动性的改善，季末回表对信 用债的扰动有所趋弱：随着持仓资产中存款、存单的比例提高，季末回表 直接减持债券或是赎回产品的压力便不那么直观。 从近期理财配置信用债的情况也能感受一二：6 月最后一周，理财二 级净买入普信债规模小幅下降，但仍继续增持二永债等品种。 四、7 月，信用控久期 站在当前节点往后看，有几个问题值得讨论： 第一，7 月跨季后，理财迎来规模增长，考虑到 5 月存款降息幅度较 大，6 月银行存在回表诉求反应还有所时滞，这整体对 7 月理财规模 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the rebar industry chain dated June 26, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 2,973.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; RB main contract open interest is 2,191,778 lots, up 19,178 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net open interest is -11,769 lots, up 24,836 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread is -5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report is 18,221 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 130 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight) is 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,140.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis is 137.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil to rebar spot spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore is 700.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded) is 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,894.16 million tons, down 38.98 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 81.12 million tons, down 6.04 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory is 634.01 million tons, down 8.72 million tons; Tangshan billet inventory is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.84%, up 0.45%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.81%, up 0.25% [2] Industry Situation - Sample steel mills' rebar output is 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; sample steel mills' rebar capacity utilization rate is 47.75%, up 1.25% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar inventory is 185.60 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory is 363.40 million tons, down 5.35 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate is 67.71%, down 2.08%; domestic crude steel output is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2] - China's rebar monthly output is 1,730 million tons, up 42 million tons; steel net export volume is 1,010.00 million tons, up 16.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.13; fixed asset investment completion cumulative year - on - year is 3.70%, down 0.30% [2] - Real estate development investment completion cumulative year - on - year is - 10.70%, down 0.40%; infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year is 5.60%, down 0.20% [2] Group 3: Core View - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract rebounded after hitting a low. Macroscopically, China will continue to integrate into the global market. In terms of supply and demand, rebar weekly output increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and total inventory decreased with a narrowing decline. Overall, apparent demand increased slightly, and strong rebounds in coking coal and coke supported steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were consolidating at a low level with a shrinking green column. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 4: Industry News - On June 26, Mysteel reported that the actual rebar output was 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; steel mill inventory was 185.6 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; social inventory was 363.4 million tons, down 5.35 million tons; total inventory was 549 million tons, down 2.07 million tons; apparent demand was 219.91 million tons, up 0.72 million tons [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to build a unified national market, boost domestic demand and consumption, and build a new model for real estate development. Enterprises in high - end equipment manufacturing, smart photovoltaics, clean energy, and new materials should be promoted to innovate, and in - fighting competition should be comprehensively addressed [2]

Core Viewpoint - The impending "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on July 9, if no trade agreement is reached between the U.S. and other countries, is causing a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit, with potential record levels anticipated for the first five months of the year [1][2]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, reaching $138.3 billion in March and dropping to $61.6 billion in April, with projections indicating that the total deficit for the first five months of the year could exceed $643 billion, surpassing previous records during the pandemic [2][3]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have reported record exports to the U.S., with both countries seeing a 35% year-on-year increase in exports [2]. - The trade dynamics have shifted, with Asian suppliers rushing to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline, contrasting with historical patterns where shipments peak before the holiday season [2]. Negotiation Progress - Ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and major trading partners are stagnating, with India rejecting U.S. requests for lower tariffs on agricultural products due to concerns over domestic farmers and genetically modified foods [4]. - Japan and South Korea are also engaged in negotiations with the U.S., focusing on tariffs affecting key industries such as automobiles and steel [4][5]. - The EU is considering retaliatory measures if negotiations with the U.S. do not yield satisfactory results, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty in decision-making [4][5]. Economic Recession Risks - The current tariff situation poses a significant threat to the U.S. economy, with analysts predicting a 60% chance of recession this year, which could lead to a substantial decline in the S&P 500 index [6][7]. - Rising consumer delinquency rates and a decrease in housing starts indicate potential economic slowdown, with credit card delinquency reaching 3.05%, the highest since 2011 [6][7]. - The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for member economies from 3.3% to 2.6% due to trade tensions, highlighting the broader economic impact of the ongoing trade disputes [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Manufacturing Sector**: June manufacturing PMI has dropped into contraction territory, significantly lower than the levels from 2020 to 2024, indicating increased economic downward pressure which may affect related stock sectors [1][2] - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has shown weak performance, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities falling below the levels of the past three years. The second-hand housing price index continues to decline, signaling increased investment risks in the real estate sector [1][3] - **Automotive Market**: The automotive sector is benefiting from new energy and smart vehicle policies, with retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increasing significantly year-on-year. The full steel tire operating rate is strong, reflecting a high level of prosperity in the automotive industry chain, which is favorable for related company stocks [1][5] - **Steel Industry**: Rebar inventory has been continuously reduced since March, but production remains below the levels of previous years. Although the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has rebounded, overall production performance is mixed, necessitating attention to supply and demand changes in the steel industry and their impact on stock prices [1][6] - **Shipping and Trade**: The shipping index for European futures and the SCFI composite index have shown an upward trend, indicating that freight rates are significantly affected by tariffs. Following the Sino-US Geneva meeting, the index has rebounded quickly, highlighting the potential impact of trade policy changes on the shipping sector [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Activity Indicators**: Recent high-frequency economic activity indicators have shown volatility, with a notable decline since late March but remaining above 1. The PMI index for June has entered a low season, dropping into contraction territory, significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024 [2][9] - **Real Estate Transactions**: The real estate market has seen a decline in transaction volumes, with the performance in 30 major cities weaker than the same period in 2022 to 2024. The downward trend in the second-hand housing price index and accelerating decline in transaction volumes indicate rising investment risks [3][9] - **Automotive Sales Growth**: As of mid-June, retail sales of passenger cars have increased by 23% year-on-year, while wholesale sales have risen by 38%. The full steel tire operating rate stands at 65.48%, which is stronger than the levels from 2019 to 2024, second only to the situation in 2020 [5][9] - **Steel Production Trends**: Rebar inventory has been consistently reduced since March, with production levels lower than those in 2022 to 2024. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has shown a rebound, reaching a near-high point in recent years [6][9] - **Trade Recovery Indicators**: The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown signs of recovery, with the Los Angeles port's import container throughput continuing to grow. The positive performance of South Korean export data indicates a revival in global trade activities, which may boost the performance of related logistics companies [4][8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: The overall macroeconomic situation is mixed, with the high-frequency economic activity index rebounding after hitting a low in May, but the EPMI has weakened due to seasonal factors and is significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024. The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive market is recovering steadily, and production indicators in the steel industry are showing signs of stabilization [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The trading volume and liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds have significantly increased in the past two weeks, approaching the historical high in July and August 2024. The market's pursuit of duration for returns is expected to continue this week. The ultra-long credit bond strategy has a certain probability of success but a low odds. Short-duration credit enhancement remains a highly certain strategy [5][8]. - The convertible bond market has a relatively cautious style. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited. However, the current valuation of convertible bonds is not significantly overestimated, and there may be opportunities for capital inflow into high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is coming to an end, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are considered greater than the risks [5][19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1 Credit Bond and Convertible Bond Views: How Long Can the Ultra-Long Credit Bond Market Last? - When short-term trading becomes crowded, the market starts to seek returns from duration. This phenomenon is expected to continue this week. The narrowing of short-term spreads has reached an extreme level, forcing liquidity to shift to longer-term bonds of medium-quality issuers. The expansion of fixed-income asset management products and the increasing insurance allocation willingness are expected to bring incremental funds, and the market's offensive on long-term credit bonds is unlikely to end soon [5][8]. - The ultra-long credit bond strategy has execution problems, such as the need for significant interest rate declines or spread compressions to achieve better returns and the lack of stable institutional investors, resulting in rapid loss of liquidity during market corrections. Short-duration credit enhancement is a more certain strategy, and if the liability side is stable, extending duration through secondary perpetual bonds is recommended rather than ultra-long credit bonds [5][13]. - The convertible bond market has a cautious style, with high-rated and low-priced convertible bonds performing better. The three characteristics of the convertible bond market in 2025 remain unchanged. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited, but the long-term allocation logic remains valid, and there may be opportunities for high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is ending, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are greater than the risks [5][19]. 2 Credit Bond Review: The Spread Compression Market is Becoming More Extreme 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue payments during the week from June 16 to June 22, 2025. Several companies had their主体评级 or展望下调, and some overseas companies had their ratings downgraded. There were also several significant negative events, such as companies being issued warning letters by regulatory authorities and being listed as dishonest被执行人 [21][22][23]. 2.2 Primary Issuance: Net Financing Continues to Remain at the Billion-Level - From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the primary issuance of credit bonds reached 411.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 105.4 billion yuan, maintaining a billion-level net financing for three consecutive weeks. Three credit bonds were canceled or postponed for issuance, with a total planned issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. The primary issuance costs of medium and high-grade bonds showed a differentiated trend last week [24]. 2.3 Secondary Trading: Liquidity Continues to Strengthen, and Urban Investment Slightly Outperforms Industry - The valuation of credit bonds declined across the board, and the risk-free interest rate curve flattened bullishly. Except for the passive widening of the spreads of low-grade long-term bonds, the spreads of other bonds narrowed or remained unchanged. The term spreads of each grade were mainly flat, but the 3Y - 5Y part of medium and low-grade bonds slightly underperformed. The long-term grade spreads were under pressure to widen. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most provinces narrowed by 1 - 3bp last week, with Qinghai having the largest narrowing of 4bp. The industry bonds slightly underperformed urban investment bonds, and the real estate industry's spreads continued to widen by 27bp. The liquidity of credit bonds continued to strengthen, with the turnover rate increasing by 0.27 percentage points to 2.31% [26][30][33]. 3 Convertible Bond Review: The Equity Market Pulled Back, and the Convertible Bond Index Slightly Declined 3.1 Overall Market Performance: The Stock Market Fluctuated and Closed Lower, with Banks and Communications Leading the Gains - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major indices mostly closed lower. Only the banking, communications, and electronics sectors rose, while the beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical sectors had the largest declines. Most of the leading convertible bonds outperformed their underlying stocks, and the list of popular individual bonds changed little [36]. 3.2 Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined, and the Opportunities Outweighed the Risks - Last week, the convertible bonds slightly declined, with the average daily trading volume significantly decreasing to 61.305 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.17%, the parity center decreased by 1.6% to 94.5 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 2.2% to 28.7%. High-rated, low-priced, and low-premium convertible bonds performed better, while high-priced, low-rated, and small-cap convertible bonds underperformed. The view on convertible bonds has changed little. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited, but the current valuation of convertible bonds is not significantly overestimated. The long-term allocation logic of the convertible bond market remains valid, and there may be opportunities for capital inflow into high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is ending, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are greater than the risks [39].

Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment fluctuates, leading to wide fluctuations in steel prices [3] - Steel demand is gradually reaching its peak, and the de-stocking of steel mills is slowing down, intensifying the negative feedback pressure. Future domestic policy stimulus should be continuously monitored [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Overseas Macro - Trump's core demands, including manufacturing decline and reduced fiscal spending, are contradictory, leading to inconsistent views that will damage the US dollar's credit. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is negative for US inflation data and strengthens the risk of a hard landing. However, energy commodity prices are supported [5][9] Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting ended without any unexpected policies. China will enter a policy window period [5][8] - The expectation of central government leveraging has been falsified [6] 2. Ribbed Bar Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai ribbed bar was 3090 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 2992 (+23) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 98 (-13) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 7 (+6) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [14][18] Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [19][22][23] Inventory - The de - stocking of steel mill inventories is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active de - stocking [25][27] Production Profit - The spot profit of ribbed bar last week was 233 (+49) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 312 (+8) yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit of East China ribbed bar was - 48 (-8) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [29][33] 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 (+20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3116 (+34) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 84 (-14) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 9 (+7) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [35][39] Demand - The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, leading to a sequential decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The pace of export rush has slowed down, and steel port departures have decreased [40][43] Inventory - Demand has weakened sequentially, and inventories have slightly accumulated. Steel mills maintain high production levels [47][48] Production Profit - The spot profit of hot - rolled coil last week was 159 (+58) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 286 (+19) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [50][53] 4. Variety Spread Structure - The report presents historical data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - ribbed bar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc., but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [54] 5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [63][64]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2986 | 5 | 0.17% | -5 | -0.17% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3102 | 9 | 0.29% | -6 | -0.19% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3100 | 10 | 0.32% | -10 | -0.32% | | | 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3200 | 10 | 0.31% | 0 | 0 | | | 螺纹钢主力基差 | 元/吨 | 114 | | 5 | | -5 | | | 热轧卷板主力基差 | 元/吨 | 98 | | 1 | | 6 | | | 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 | 元/吨 | 8 | | ...