1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The short - term trading core drivers are the US copper tariff rate and its implementation time. If the 50% tariff rate is implemented at the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired by "COMEX copper price rising + LME copper price falling". If the implementation is delayed, LME copper price will be supported by arbitrage trading. The reference range for the main contract is 76,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2,850 - 3,150. It is recommended to short on rallies. For electrolytic aluminum, the current high - level price is expected to face pressure in the short - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, zinc price is weakening. Pay attention to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle [8]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - policy guidance and short - term disturbances from the news [11]. Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large. Pay attention to changes in US tariffs, and continue to hold previous high - level short positions [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the rhythm of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 60,000 - 65,000. Observe the performance of funds around 65,000 and pay attention to macro risks [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11% [1]. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.30% [1]. - In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - In June, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.49% [4]. - In June, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,040 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.50% [8]. - In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 5.36% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 121,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 10.04% [11]. - The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 10,325 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 116.90% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 264,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97% [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 3,288 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 36.39% [14]. - SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.37% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.83% [16]. - The stainless - steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 12.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 6,010 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 8.34% [18]. - In June, the lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 145 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.15% [20].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates still exist, and there are disturbances in the production or transportation of many overseas copper mines. However, the Trump administration's tariff increases on many countries and the emergence of traditional consumption off - season characteristics in China have led to continuous accumulation of the global total inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause adjustments in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract lightly at high prices in the short term [4]. - The positive basis and high - level monthly spread of Shanghai copper, as well as the positive spread of LME copper contracts, are due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs leading to export rush expectations and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates. But considering factors such as the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season in China, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads and wait and see for LME copper arbitrage opportunities [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - economic Environment - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit expansion may exceed $3 trillion. Trump postponed the effective date of reciprocal tariffs and the negotiation deadline to August 1, and sent the first batch of tariff letters to 14 countries with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%. The US ADP employment number in June was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September/October/December [3]. Upstream Market - **Copper Concentrate**: The transportation of copper concentrates from Las Bambas and Constancia was interrupted due to road blockades by informal miners. Rio Tinto paid nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit. Some mines had production or transportation problems, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in July. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative but increased compared with last week, and the world (China) port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week [3][23]. - **Copper Smelting**: Some overseas copper smelters stopped production, while some domestic smelters had new production capacity put into operation. The weekly processing fees of domestic northern (southern) crude copper decreased (increased) month - on - month, and the domestic smelter's crude - smelting maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in July [3][29]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: Some domestic electrolytic copper production capacity was put into operation, while some overseas smelters had production reduction or suspension plans. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase month - on - month, and the import volume may also increase month - on - month [3][30]. Downstream Market - **Copper Rod**: Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [4][34]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate, raw material, and finished - product inventory of copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week. Affected by factors such as the off - season, the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [47][50]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The monthly processing fee of copper enameled wire remained flat. Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the order volume and capacity utilization rate decreased slightly compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [48][50]. - **Copper Foil**: The weekly processing fee of copper foil decreased slightly. The actual downstream order increment was mainly rigid demand, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic - circuit copper foil in July may decrease month - on - month [52][54]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the orders from consumer electronics and new - energy customers decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [54]. - **Copper Tube and Brass Rod**: Due to factors such as the expected decrease in the production of household air - conditioners in July, high inventory of air - conditioner manufacturers, high raw - material procurement costs, and a decline in new orders, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes and brass rods in July may decrease month - on - month [56]. Market Structure and Arbitrage Opportunities - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of Shanghai copper was positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread was also positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads [8]. - **LME Copper Contract Spread**: The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper were positive and at relatively high levels. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was close to the 75% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper were positive and at relatively high levels, which was due to concerns about the unexpected results of the Trump administration's Section 232 investigation on copper [11]. - **Contract Price Structure**: The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near - and far - month contracts showed a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper showed a Contango structure [13]. Inventory Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and LME copper inventory increased compared with last week. The COMEX copper inventory also increased due to the transportation of about 500,000 tons of copper to US ports by international traders. The copper concentrate inventory at Chinese ports increased compared with last week [16][18][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price fluctuated within a week, which was in line with expectations. The macro - level driving force was limited, and the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts was slightly dampened. The US economic "hard data" remained resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation ended at $0, severely hitting the long - term profitability of smelters. The domestic production remained high, and the profit from sulfuric acid and by - products barely offset the losses. The domestic off - season deepened, the spot premium declined from its high, but due to the internal - external price difference, the increase in domestic exports weakened the inventory accumulation expectation. The LME squeeze problem was alleviated, with inventory in Asian warehouses increasing and the premium declining. - During the tariff game, the macro - expectation may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the tariff expectation game around July 9th, especially the investigation of copper 232. The copper price showed a pull - back on the weekly chart, and the strategy of selling near - month CALL and buying far - month PUT should be continued [4][85]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% to 49%, while France's dropped 2% to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, staying below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The US economic "hard data" was resilient, reducing the probability of the Fed's action in July. The tariff game with the July 9th deadline set by the US led to pressure on the macro - sentiment. In China, the manufacturing data rebounded slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, and the "anti - involution" action was gradually put on the agenda [4][13][85]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%, with a market surplus of 301,000 tons. In 2025, from January to April, the cumulative production of copper mines was 752.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and in April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 252.2 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, the import of copper concentrate was about 240 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the monthly average import from January to May 2025 [27]. TC - On July 4th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 44.25 dollars per dry ton, an increase of 0.56 dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group will hold a meeting on July 11th. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory on July 4th was 666,200 physical tons, an increase of 42,700 physical tons from the previous period, mainly from Qinzhou Port. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate in 2025 was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, the SMM China electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. It is expected that in July, the national electrolytic copper production will further increase by 155,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%, and by 1.222 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.88% [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, the import of electrolytic copper was 292,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Refined - Scrap Price Difference - The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased, and the average price difference between refined and scrap copper rods widened. The supply of recycled copper raw materials tightened, and the demand was suppressed by policies and costs. Recycled copper rod enterprises faced losses and were expected to shift to anode plate production, and the supply of anode plates in the second half of the year would be relatively loose [51]. Consumption End - **Power and Grid Investment**: From January to December 2024, the cumulative power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative power investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and the grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - **Wire and Cable**: No specific data provided. - **Air Conditioning**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioning production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioning production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to May 2025, the air - conditioning production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The industry entered the off - season [56]. - **Automobile**: In May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. In the new - energy vehicle sector, in May 2025, the production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% [61]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 4th, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 400,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,700 tons. The LME copper inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 95,300 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 3,039 tons to 84,600 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 11,600 tons to 221,000 tons. As of July 3rd, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 72,900 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous week. Due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, the import loss of domestic copper widened, and some smelters began to plan export business [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 24th, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 29,433 lots, a monthly increase of 6,852 lots. The non - commercial long position was 70,781 lots, a monthly increase of 837 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,348 lots, a monthly decrease of 6,015 lots. The COMEX copper price rose due to the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, and the long position increased slightly [70]. Premium - As of July 4th, the LME copper spot premium was $95.35 per ton, and the LME squeeze problem was alleviated. The domestic copper spot premium showed a trend of rising first and then falling. It is expected that under the pressure of high copper prices and increasing inventory, the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the decline space is limited [76]. Basis - As of July 4th, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 790 yuan per ton [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and there is a risk of correction in the non - ferrous metals market, especially for copper, zinc, nickel, and stainless steel [1][9][87][205]. - For copper, due to factors such as improved non - farm data, eased overseas squeeze - out risks, and high prices suppressing downstream demand, copper prices face downward pressure [9]. - For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged, and it can be considered as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - For nickel and stainless steel, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Factors include changes in macro - policies, raw material prices, and inventory levels [205][206]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and multiple metal varieties. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.0, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a weekly decline of 0.28%, and an annual decline of 10.59% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Negative factors include strong US non - farm data, Trump's signing of the "Great Beauty" bill, and tariff threats [9]. - **Raw Material**: Positive factors are a slight increase in copper concentrate spot processing fees and an increase in domestic copper ore port inventories [9]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with smelters using spot copper ore having continuous losses, and those using long - term contracts seeing reduced profits [9]. - **Demand**: Negative, as the arrival of the off - season and high copper prices have led to a significant decline in domestic copper product operating rates [9]. - **Inventory**: Negative, with global copper visible inventories increasing and the LME spot premium compressing [9]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, with copper prices at risk of correction [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction risk for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, including factors such as Trump signing a budget bill, strong US non - farm data, and China's plan to regulate the photovoltaic industry [87]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with domestic processing fees unchanged, import processing fees slightly increased, and short - term supply remaining relatively loose [87]. - **Smelting**: Bearish, as July sees a combination of maintenance, resumption, and new production, with monthly output expected to increase [87]. - **Demand**: Neutral, with the off - season and tariff uncertainties affecting demand [87]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with social inventories continuously increasing [87]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, suitable as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [87]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, with the US non - farm data affecting interest - rate cut expectations, and Trump's tariff policies and domestic "anti - involution" policies causing market sentiment to fluctuate [205][206]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with a slight decrease in the premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore, an increase in smelter inventories, and a seasonal increase in Philippine shipments [205]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with high - level pure nickel production, weakening demand, and supply pressure on ferronickel [205]. - **Demand**: Bearish, with stainless steel in the off - season, weak spot transactions, and uncertain new - energy demand [205]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with inventory levels remaining stable [205]. - **Investment View**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention to factors such as policy changes and cost fluctuations [205]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies for unilateral trading; wait for arbitrage [205][206].

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年07月06日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：微观边际转弱，宏观缺乏确定性，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：78000-81000元/吨 COMEX和LME铜价差扩大 国内电解铜产量边际增加 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 美元/吨 COMEX铜价-LME铜价 周度数据：LME库存增加，0-3现货升水收窄 铜周度重点数据 | 【行情回顾】 | | | | | 【期现价 ...

铜月报 2025/07/04 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 宏观乐观情绪有所弱化 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 操作建议：反弹尝试短空。 ◆ 供应：短期铜精矿供需关系维持紧张，但从半年度长单结果看，远期紧张程度稍弱于预期。国内精炼铜产量维持偏高，预计7月产量抬升。 ◆ 需求：6月中国精炼铜表观消费预估延续较高增长，7月消费增速预计降至零附近。海外制造业景气度边际改善，短期需求预期尚可。 ◆ 进出口：6月沪铜进口亏损大幅下探，进料加工出口预计增多、进口预计减少。 ◆ 库存：6月上期所和LME库存减少，COMEX和保税区库存增加。预估7月国内库存相对平稳，海外库存继续增加。 ◆ 小结：进入7月，中国精炼铜产量预计维持高位，下游处于淡季需求偏弱，废铜替代预计边际增加，但出口增多或使得库存较为平稳。海外 需求预期尚可，不过隐性库存可能进一步显性化。宏观层面，美国税收和支出法案有望获得通过，但短期美国就业市场较强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to operate in the negative range, the progress of the mid - year long - term contract negotiation exceeds expectations, the long - term TC has been repaired, and the tight supply situation of copper concentrate has improved. In terms of supply, due to the sufficient port inventory of copper mines and the opening of the copper export window, smelters still have a high production willingness, with stable and slightly increasing output. Although the supply is sufficient, the domestic supply has tightened due to the increasing export intention. In terms of demand, affected by the off - season, the processing and consumption of downstream copper products have weakened. The seasonal weakness of demand has led to low trading activity in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the social inventory remains basically stable and operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the supply expectation of copper mines has improved. In the options market, the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, a decrease of 0.0844 compared with the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,995 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 224,672 lots, up 1,550 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is 7,547 lots, up 2,459 lots. The LME copper inventory is 93,250 tons, up 2,000 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 31,900 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 24,103 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 80,995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 96.2 dollars/ton, down 20.1 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars/kiloton. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 56,590 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 68 million pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.2%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.42%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 14.71%, down 0.0120; the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, down 0.0844. [2] 3.7 Industry News - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business volume index has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months this year. The ADP employment in the US unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 in June, the first negative growth since March 2023. The market expected an increase of 98,000. After the downward revision of May data, it only increased by 29,000. The service industry lost 66,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June is 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. The Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, Zhang Guoqing, conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technological empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high - quality development of the manufacturing industry. Fed Chairman Powell said that it's hard to say whether a rate cut in July is too early, and no meeting is excluded. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there is no urgent need to change policies. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to operate in the negative range, but the long - term contract TC has improved, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has eased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, but domestic supply has tightened due to increased export intentions. The demand is seasonally weak, leading to low trading activity in the spot market. Social inventory remains stable at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the copper ore supply is expected to improve. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with a converging red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Copper is 80,540 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,937 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 223,122 lots, down 861 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are 5,895 lots, down 8,048 lots. The LME copper inventory is 91,250 tons, up 625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 25,097 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,990 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,955 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 450 yuan/ton, up 885 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 116.30 dollars/ton, down 65.39 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000,000 pieces, up 68,000,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 9.21%, down 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.43%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 15.91%, up 0.0168. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.68, up 0.0444 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to May this year, the added value of large - scale light industry enterprises increased by 7% year - on - year, with an operating income of 9.27 trillion yuan. The retail sales of furniture products increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and that of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 30.2% year - on - year. In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May. In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 vehicles, up 11.9% year - on - year; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 vehicles, up more than 138% year - on - year; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 vehicles, up 4.44% year - on - year; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 vehicles, down 24% year - on - year; XPeng Motors' delivery volume was 34,611 vehicles, up 224% year - on - year. Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 vehicles, and NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 vehicles, up 17.5% year - on - year. The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy without Trump's tariff policy. He did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and most Fed members expect another rate cut later this year. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, still in the contraction range for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and the price - paid index approaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward price movements driven by supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical factors, and economic stimulus measures in China, with expectations of a short-term upward trend in copper prices [4]. Price Summary - On July 2, the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted at 80,990 yuan/ton, which is a premium of 450 yuan/ton over the futures main price of 80,540 yuan/ton [1]. - The national copper price overview shows various prices for 1 electrolytic copper, with Shanghai Huatuo at 80,990 yuan/ton, Guangdong Nanshu at 80,870 yuan/ton, and Shanghai YS at 80,890 yuan/ton [2]. Futures Market Overview - On July 2, the closing price for the main copper futures contract was 80,540 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.65% increase, with a daily trading volume of 101,958 contracts [2]. - The highest price reached during the day was 80,930 yuan/ton, while the lowest was 80,320 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory Data - As of June 27, the Shanghai copper futures inventory was recorded at 81,550 tons, a decrease of 19,264 tons from the previous trading day [3]. - On July 2, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported copper registered warrants at 61,350 tons and canceled warrants at 31,900 tons, with total copper inventory increasing by 2,000 tons to 93,250 tons [3]. Market Analysis - According to a report from Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures, expectations for a global manufacturing recovery are rising due to the easing of geopolitical risks and continued economic stimulus in China [4]. - The report highlights a significant global shortage of refined copper, with declining overseas LME inventories and low domestic stocks, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices driven by supply-demand mismatches and increased applications in AI and electrification [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, with geopolitical risks, trade policies, and economic data all playing significant roles. Different commodities show various trends due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic environments [2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price movements are characterized by oscillations, affected by both positive and negative factors. Some commodities may experience short - term price increases or decreases based on specific events and data [4][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Overseas: The US Senate passed the "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, and it awaits final approval in the House. Trump may reach a trade agreement with India but is skeptical about Japan, hinting at a potential increase in tariffs on Japanese imports to 30% - 35% from 24%. The US job openings in May reached a new high since November last year, and Powell suggested a "wait - and - see" approach [2]. - Domestic: President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, emphasizing the promotion of a unified market and the development of the marine economy. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded to 50.4, returning to the expansion range. Stocks and bonds both rose, but the A - share market lacked a clear main line [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.28% to $3349.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.20% to $36.25 per ounce. Trade concerns, potential Fed rate cuts, and Middle - East geopolitical risks drove safe - haven funds into the precious metals market. However, the short - term sustainability of the price rebound is uncertain [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper showed an upward trend. The Shanghai copper main contract broke through, and the London copper price approached the $10,000 mark. The US manufacturing was in a downturn with inflation expectations rising. Globally, the shortage of concentrates and low inventory levels, along with expanding application areas, are expected to drive copper prices into a short - term oscillatory upward trend [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum showed a positive trend. The weakening US dollar index and low warehouse receipts supported the price. However, the market should also pay attention to the impact of the Senate's passage of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill and the upcoming July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina futures showed a preference for oscillatory movement. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline, and the spot market had limited supply increments. The short - term price is expected to maintain a preference for oscillatory movement [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc declined slightly. Overseas refineries resumed production, and the supply disturbance weakened. Although downstream buying improved, the short - term fundamentals remained weak, and the price returned to a weakening trend [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead declined slightly. The supply of primary and recycled lead refineries is expected to recover in July, while consumption has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. Tin - The price of tin showed a compensatory movement. The fundamentals were not significantly changed, with low trading volume. The supply and demand were both weak, and the high - price tin faced pressure [16]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon faced resistance in its rebound. It was in the off - season with weakening demand. The supply side was generally weak, and the demand side in the photovoltaic industry was also lackluster. The short - term price is expected to enter a weak adjustment phase [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate declined. The market sentiment cooled down, and the downstream replenishment ended. Although the cathode production in July may exceed expectations, the supply also increased, and high inventory may drag down the price [19][20]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The US economic data was mixed, and the cost side showed signs of loosening. The short - term fundamentals had no improvement, and the price oscillated [21][22]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil oscillated. Geopolitical risks and industry logic were intertwined. Although the geopolitical heat decreased, the conflict was not completely over, and the supply side maintained a high - growth expectation [23]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures price rebounded slightly. The market was affected by the news of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply side's production was stable at a low level, and the demand side was weak due to high - temperature weather. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price oscillated and adjusted. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the supply pressure remained due to high overseas shipments. The demand for iron ore had some resilience, but the production of molten iron was expected to decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate under pressure [26]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The US soybean crushing volume in May was 6.11 million tons, and the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks was normal. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather changes, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - US trade progress [27][28]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price may oscillate. The production of Malaysian palm oil in June slowed down, and the export demand in Indonesia increased in May. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [29][30].