Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and policy expectations [2][3][4] - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US summit, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade frictions have significant impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations and uncertainties [2][3][44] - Many commodities face challenges such as high inventory, weak demand, and supply - demand imbalances, which affect their price trends [37][38][40] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight futures prices declined. Geopolitical risks decreased, and Sino - US trade frictions and inventory increases put pressure on the market. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors affected prices. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Saudi's price forecast increased. In the traditional peak season, demand expectations are strong, and the market is gradually recovering from the low level [24] - **Asphalt**: Inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is tight. There is a slight inventory accumulation expectation at the end of 2025, and the support may weaken in the later Q4 [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The US government shutdown and expected interest rate cuts support the long - term upward trend, but short - term volatility risks are high [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, affected by trade tensions and inventory changes [4] - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly in the short term, testing the previous high resistance. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable [5] - **Zinc**: LME inventory is low, and the decline has slowed. The domestic market has support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [8] - **Lead**: It is in a low - level and weak oscillation. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weak, and the fundamentals of stainless steel are poor. The market is affected by macro - factors and inventory changes [10] - **Tin**: High - position short positions can be held. There are resistance levels at certain price points [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds, and the market trading is light. It is in a low - level oscillation, waiting for a clear trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rises slightly, and the spot is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to production and cost factors [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds, driven by policy expectations. There is a risk of a callback due to high inventory and uncertain policies [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating upward. The supply is abundant, and the downstream demand provides support. The market is affected by safety inspections and trade frictions [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. They are affected by external trade frictions [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak [25] - **Methanol**: The import supply in coastal areas has slowed down, and the inventory in production enterprises has increased. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory and trade disputes [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The current fundamentals are good, but the price may be dragged down by falling oil prices. The industry valuation is low [27] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is uncertain due to high inventory and trade conflicts [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream is cautious in purchasing [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export is under pressure. Caustic soda demand has improved, and the price decline is limited [30] - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is temporarily reduced, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The overall demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the market is affected by oil prices and trade relations [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand has improved, and bottle - chip has a good spot market but faces long - term over - capacity pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate downward if the Sino - US trade relationship does not improve [37] - **Edible Oils**: The market has certain resilience. Palm oil has a production reduction cycle, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. It is recommended to buy at low prices after the price bottoms out [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory is decreasing slowly, and the trade relationship between China and Canada needs attention [39] - **Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the price of imported soybeans may be affected by demand [40] - **Corn**: The price is at the bottom and is expected to gradually approach the bottom [41] - **Pigs**: The futures price is at a low level, and the spot price is rebounding. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market has support in the medium - term [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price declines. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [43] - **Cotton**: The price is oscillating. The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The demand is weak in the peak season [44] - **Sugar**: The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic production expectation is good. The price is affected by weather and production in different regions [45] - **Apples**: The price is oscillating. The supply is stable, and the inventory may be higher than expected, so the price faces pressure [46] - **Wood**: The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The price is affected by inventory and overseas quotations [48] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is oscillating. The actual implementation of price increases needs to be observed [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is oscillating with volume contraction. The style may rotate, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium - term [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price rises, and the yield curve steepening may end. The market is expected to enter a repair stage [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The given reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro - factors like the approaching China - US tariff extension deadline and the weak US employment report could drive short - term trading. The supply shortage of copper mines will support copper prices in the long - term. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued to be weak, and the aluminum market was in an oversupply situation. The spot price of aluminum is expected to remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton, supported by macro - easing expectations and a tight - balance fundamentals, but high prices are suppressing downstream procurement [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated, with the main contract slightly down. Cost support was prominent, but supply was restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand was moderately recovering, and inventory was increasing, suppressing price increases. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited. Demand did not exceed expectations. The Shanghai zinc is expected to remain oscillating between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remained tight, while demand was weak. The short - term macro - volatility is expected to increase. Consider buying on dips due to macro - sentiment drops. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly. Macro - risks increased, and there were some positive factors in the mining end, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, restricting price increases. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated weakly. Macro - risks increased, raw material prices were firm, but the peak - season demand was not met, and inventory pressure was high. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated. The supply - side situation was gradually becoming clear but with many uncertainties. Demand was robust, and the whole - chain inventory was decreasing. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, with the main contract price centered between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.88% to 85,235 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price and premium changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons; in August, imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. Various inventory data also changed [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.10% to 20,920 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. Aluminum inventories also changed [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions decreased by 0.24%. Various scrap - to - refined price differences remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.88% to 27.10 million tons. The开工 rate of different types of enterprises also changed [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.90% to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons; in August, imports increased by 43.30% to 1.79 million tons. The开工 rate of related industries and inventory data also changed [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 281,700 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Other price and spread data also changed [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons; in August, imports decreased by 40.19% to 1,296 tons. Inventory data also changed [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,300 yuan/ton. Various nickel - related prices and spreads changed [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons; imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. Inventory data also changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The futures - spot spread decreased by 8.11% [13]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. Import and export volumes, as well as inventory data, also changed [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 73,000 yuan/ton. Various lithium - related prices and spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons; demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. Inventory data also changed [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro factors include the approaching Sino - US tariff extension deadline and the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in September. Fundamentally, the shortage of copper ore supply is a long - term concern, and subsequent attention should be paid to demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main support level is 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued its weak operation, and the aluminum market remained in an oversupply situation, with spot prices expected to remain under pressure. The short - term main contract of aluminum may fluctuate in the 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton range. For aluminum, the price center of Shanghai aluminum futures has moved up, but high prices have suppressed spot purchases. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures showed a volatile trend. Cost support is prominent, but supply is restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand is in a mild recovery state, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile, and there was still pressure above the price. Fundamentally, the supply - side logic has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. The subsequent focus is on TC growth and inventory performance. In the short term, zinc prices may be driven up by macro factors but will likely maintain a shock pattern [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand has not improved significantly. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - factor fluctuations, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range shock, and the market sentiment was weak. There are uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The supply of nickel ore is mixed, and the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is not strong. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market maintained a weak shock, and traders were mainly waiting and watching. Macro factors have uncertainties, and raw - material prices are firm. The supply pressure is increasing, and the peak - season demand has not been realized. It is expected that the short - term market will be in a weak shock adjustment, with the main operation range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures market was in an overall shock state. The supply - side has information uncertainties, while the demand is steadily optimistic. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state during the peak season, and the whole - chain inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a shock adjustment, with the main price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 85235 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day; the premium was 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The operating rates of copper rod production from electrolytic copper and recycled copper decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20920 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day; the premium was 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of aluminum profiles and cables decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy was 21000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The month - to - month spreads showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the month - to - month spreads changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, imports increased by 43.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide decreased [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 281700 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month; the average operating rate was 43.60%, down 31.77% month - on - month. The export volume of Indonesian refined tin in September increased by 50.00% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferro - chrome showed different trends [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly in September. The import and export volumes of stainless steel changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The month - to - month spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; demand was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The inventory in different links changed [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened low and strengthened, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC fee has been running in the negative range, and the copper ore supply has been tightened due to the shutdown of overseas mining areas. On the supply side, the smelter's production capacity is expected to be limited, and the domestic refined copper supply may decrease. On the demand side, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the holidays, but the spot market's purchasing intention is cautious. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a red column above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,800 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 10,678.50 dollars/ton, up 100.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract was 175,899 hands, down 11,667 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 2,306 hands, up 395 hands. The LME copper inventory was 138,800 tons, down 550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 109,690 tons, up 14,656 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 8,550 tons, down 2,175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants were 44,531 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,235 yuan/ton, down 755 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 85,495 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 565 yuan/ton, down 2,145 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was 54.87 dollars/ton, down 171.91 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The TC fee of domestic copper smelters was - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 75,790 yuan/metal ton, down 480 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 76,490 yuan/metal ton, down 480 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The production of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, up 31 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons, up 55,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 58,940 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,500 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, up 52.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 22.01%, up 0.48%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 16.49%, up 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 20.09%, down 0.0144%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.28, down 0.127 [2]. Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the liquidity in the money market is gradually tightening, and the balance - sheet reduction may be close to an end in the next few months. Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments. The IMF predicted that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025. The production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles in China in September reached new highs [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The US dollar index rebounded near 100, and copper prices fluctuated weakly. Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data led to expectations of Fed monetary easing. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracted non - US copper to the US. - The shortage of copper mine supply is a key concern. Mines like Grasberg, Kamoa - Kakula, and El Teniente have had disruptions, which will support copper prices in the medium - to - long term. Focus on demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations, with support at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices continued to decline, and the spot market was weak. With sufficient supply, high operating capacity, and increasing overseas supply, while demand was weak, the alumina market is expected to remain in surplus, with the main contract oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. - The center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum futures prices moved up, with a tight - balance fundamental situation. Macro - level factors are positive, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices oscillated with aluminum prices. Cost support was strong due to rising scrap aluminum prices. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, while demand showed a mild recovery. Inventory was increasing, and imports were limited. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton range [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited by factors such as TC and sulfuric acid prices. Demand was not outstanding. It is expected to maintain oscillations, with the main contract in the 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton range [7]. Tin - Tin prices were affected by supply and demand. Supply of tin ore was tight, and smelting processing fees were low. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, although some consumption was driven by AI and photovoltaics. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - level uncertainties, focus on the buying point when the macro - sentiment drops. The future trend depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel futures oscillated weakly. Macro - level factors were uncertain, including Sino - US tariffs and Fed policies. Spot nickel prices declined slightly, and downstream procurement increased. Nickel ore prices were firm, and nickel - iron prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton range [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel futures prices oscillated downward. Macro - level risks were amplified, and raw material prices provided cost support. Demand in the peak season did not materialize, and inventory pressure increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton range [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated strongly. The fundamental situation was in a tight - balance during the peak season. Production increased, demand was optimistic, and the entire industry chain continued to reduce inventory. It is expected to oscillate, with the price center in the 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.11% to 85990 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped to 50 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.48% to 86160 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 20 yuan/ton. SMM wet - process copper rose 1.15% to 85895 yuan/ton, with a stable premium of - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased 10.06% to 3567 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 10 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to 30 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 90 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and in August, imports decreased 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. The import copper concentrate index increased 0.44 to - 40.36 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 3.50% to 66.02 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production decreased to 43.44%, and that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 18.56%. Social inventory in China increased 15.98% to 17.20 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 15.42% to 10.97 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.48% to 20900 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 0 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 15 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. In August, electrolytic aluminum imports decreased to 21.73 million tons, and exports decreased to 2.56 million tons. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, cables, sheets, foils, and primary aluminum alloys all decreased. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased 9.80% to 65.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% to 50.4 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable. The refined - scrap spreads in Foshan, Shanghai, etc. showed different changes. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 55 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. In August, primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 1.88% to 27.10 million tons, and scrap aluminum production increased 8.16% to 79.76 million tons. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased. Social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased 1.26% to 5.64 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.05% to 22210 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to - 55 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 4931 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton, and other monthly spreads remained stable [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased 4.17% to 60.01 million tons. In August, imports increased 43.30% to 2.57 million tons, and exports decreased 23.40% to 0.03 million tons. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloys, and zinc oxide decreased. Social inventory of zinc ingots in China increased 15.35% to 16.31 million tons, and LME inventory increased 3.00% to 3.9 million tons [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased 0.14% to 282000 yuan/ton, and its premium remained stable. LME 0 - 3 premium decreased 70.98% to - 105.99 dollars/ton [9]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased 16.14% to - 14872.09 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.94 [9]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 430 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 250 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 200 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to 20 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased 0.11% to 10267 tons. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased 31.71% to 10510 tons, and the average operating rate decreased 31.77% to 43.60%. In September, Indonesian refined tin exports increased 50.00% to 4800 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.29% to 122100 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased 0.30% to 123300 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased 4.55% to - 203 dollars/ton, and the import profit/loss decreased 28.08% to - 1086 yuan/ton [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 160 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 220 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 220 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - In China, refined nickel products increased 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased 3.00% to 17010 tons. SHFE inventory increased 1.75% to 29008 tons, social inventory increased 7.02% to 43694 tons, and LME inventory increased 0.48% to 243258 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased 0.38% to 12950 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased 7.77% to 515 yuan/ton [13]. Raw Material Price - The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore, South African chrome concentrate, 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron, and other raw materials showed different changes [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 25 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread remained at - 90 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 60 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In China, 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and in Indonesia, it increased 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. In August, stainless steel imports increased 60.48% to 11.72 million tons, exports increased 7.60% to 44.79 million tons, and net exports decreased 3.65% to 33.07 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased 6.93% to 50.46 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.79% to 8.45 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 73000 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 70750 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased 0.12% to 828 dollars/ton [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 120 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2601 spread increased to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased 2.37% to 87260 tons, and battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased 4.77% to 67240 tons. In August, exports increased 0.70% to 383 tons. In October, production capacity increased 3.67% to 149820 tons, and the operating rate remained at 55%. Total inventory increased 0.38% to 94539 tons, downstream inventory increased 15.29% to 609999 tons, and smelter inventory decreased 19.16% to 32930 tons [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current copper market is influenced by the resonance of the US government shutdown - driven risk - aversion demand and the supply shortage caused by the Indonesian mine accident. Copper prices are fluctuating around 85,000. Before these two factors reverse, it is not advisable to easily short copper prices. Although the tariff issue has re - emerged, the "TACO" trading logic still holds, and there is a possibility of a repeat of the Qingming Festival market. For the future market, the current price is high, but shorting should not be done lightly. If one wants to participate, a small - position long - term allocation can be considered [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesian mine accident has continuously pushed up the ore price. Charts show the market price of 20% copper concentrate, TC price, refined - scrap copper spot price, and copper import profit [7][9][11]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Futures and Spot Market Price**: The mine accident has become the dominant factor. Charts display the Shanghai copper futures - spot price, Yangshan Free Trade Zone premium to LME, and foreign copper futures prices [14][16][18]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation has continued to increase. Charts present overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, LME copper fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position [19][20][24]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Charts show the net import volume of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and scrap copper [29][30][31]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Charts display the monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, production cost and profit, and weekly inventory [34][35][36]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Charts show the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, US Treasury yield, and the relationship between the US benchmark interest rate and inflation [42][43][45]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Charts present US employment data, market confidence index, social retail sales, and inventory data [51][52][53]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, and the PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Charts show China's M1, M2 growth rate, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, and other data [59][60][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The power grid and new energy sectors provide support. Charts show the monthly demand for electrolytic copper, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate [71][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Due to the easing of tariff concerns and the expectation of the Fed's monetary easing policy, the copper price showed a strong trend. The shortage of copper mine supply will support the copper price in the medium and long term. The follow - up should focus on the marginal changes in demand and the rhythm of Sino - US tariff negotiations, with the main support level at 84,000 - 85,000 [1]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina is under pressure. Although the current futures price is approaching the mainstream cost range, the upside needs external factors such as supply disturbances in Guinea, rising energy costs, or improved macro - sentiment. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The macro - level is favorable for the aluminum price, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. The high aluminum price restricts downstream procurement, but the low inventory level reflects the resilience of demand. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The raw material supply and demand contradiction is unresolved, and the post - holiday demand is recovering steadily. The inventory accumulation trend is slowing down, which provides upward momentum for the price. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose pattern, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals have limited support for the continuous rise. It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the short - term tin price will continue to oscillate. The follow - up should focus on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - The macro - risk increases, and the cost has support, but the inventory accumulation has certain pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The macro - risk is amplified, the raw material price is firm, and the cost support exists. However, the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, and the inventory removal is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - uncertainty increases, and the market atmosphere is weak. The supply path is gradually clear, and the peak - season demand and inventory reduction support the price. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86%. The alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 21,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 282,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% [15]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 4.31%. In August, the import volume was 264,300 tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. - **Alumina**: In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 217,300 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. In August, the un - forged aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2.60% [4]. - **Zinc**: In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 4.17%. In August, the import volume was 25,700 tons, an increase of 43.30% [8]. - **Tin**: In September, the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. In August, the refined tin import volume was 1,296 tons, a decrease of 40.19% [10]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, an increase of 0.27%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 3.00% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 117,200 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. In August, the import volume was 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% [15]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased to 1.72 million tons, an increase of 15.98%. The SHFE inventory increased to 1.097 million tons, an increase of 15.42% [1]. - **Alumina**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased to 649,000 tons, an increase of 5.19% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots increased to 56,400 tons, an increase of 1.26% [4]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased to 163,100 tons, an increase of 15.35% [8]. - **Tin**: The SHFE inventory decreased to 5,879 tons, a decrease of 8.55%. The social inventory decreased to 7,786 tons, a decrease of 1.32% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased to 29,572 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The social inventory increased to 43,694 tons, an increase of 7.02% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased to 504,600 tons, an increase of 6.93% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total lithium carbonate inventory in September was 665,376 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The downstream inventory increased to 60,919 tons, an increase of 15.29% [15].

Group 1 - In September 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 485,000 tons, marking the highest monthly figure of the year and a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [2] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.019 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - The traditional demand peak in September, known as "Golden September," contributed to the rebound in unwrought copper and copper products imports [2] Group 2 - As the world's largest copper consumer, China's industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map," available in both Chinese and English [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC fee has been running in the negative range, and the supply of copper ore has been tightened due to the shutdown of overseas mining areas. On the supply side, smelter production capacity is expected to be limited, and domestic refined copper supply may decrease. On the demand side, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the double festivals, but the purchase intention in the spot market is cautious. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bar has slightly converged. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 790 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,596 dollars/ton, an increase of 78 dollars. The open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract decreased by 14,285 hands to 201,830 hands. The inventory of LME copper decreased by 75 tons to 139,400 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 75 tons to 8,350 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 32,890 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,635 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 85,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,605 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 31.19 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.29 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, an increase of 19.92 million tons. The production of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, an increase of 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 75,380 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,080 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan. The processing fee of crude copper in the south increased by 200 yuan to 1,000 yuan/ton, and in the north, it remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 500 yuan to 59,590 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai increased by 850 yuan to 73,300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper increased by 30 yuan to 510 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 222.19 million tons, an increase of 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 379.576 billion yuan, an increase of 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, an increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits decreased by 438,933.60 million pieces to 4,250,287.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper increased by 0.49 percentage points to 21.39%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.26 percentage points to 15.92%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0035 percentage points to 21.67%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options increased by 0.03 to 1.35 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year but were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants thought further policy easing might be appropriate, but most also emphasized the upside risk of inflation expectations. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's plan to impose a 100% tariff on China, stating that it would take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.239 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17%, with a penetration rate of 58.5%. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index in September was 51.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The University of Michigan survey showed that the preliminary consumer confidence index in the US in October decreased slightly to 55. The China Automobile Dealers Association expected the car sales in October to exceed those in September [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have increased, and the non - ferrous metals sector has initially risen but then fallen. The prices of different non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as macro - economy, raw material supply, smelting, demand, and inventory, showing different trends and investment outlooks [2] - For copper, short - term prices may fall after a sharp rise, and it is expected to fluctuate. For zinc, short - term macro - disturbances increase, and the investment view is bearish. For nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors like Sino - US trade frictions and uncertain policies [9][95][195] 3. Summary by Directory 01. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Each metal shows different daily, weekly, and annual price changes [7] 02. Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bearish. The US government shutdown, poor ADP employment data, and Sino - US trade frictions have increased market uncertainty and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [9] - **Raw Material End**: Bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the suspension of a major copper mine in Indonesia has tightened the supply [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral to bullish. The losses of smelters using spot and long - term copper ore have both narrowed, and the copper output in September decreased and is expected to continue to decline in October [9] - **Demand End**: Bearish. The sharp rise in copper prices and the holiday have led to a significant decline in the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Both domestic and foreign copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment View**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a short - term decline [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish for single - side trading, and consider domestic positive arbitrage [9] 03. Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. Sino - US trade frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of a decline in global asset prices [95] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. Domestic and imported processing fees show different trends, and the purchasing enthusiasm of smelters for imported ores is not high [95] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The refined zinc output in September decreased, and it is expected to increase in October [95] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The "Silver October" peak season has limited expectations, and the downstream raw material procurement sentiment is weak [95] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Social inventories have increased after the holiday, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline [95] - **Investment View**: Bearish. Although the export window is almost open, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [95] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external reverse arbitrage [95] 04. Nickel & Stainless Steel (NI & SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US trade friction has resurfaced, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased [195][196] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB approval system in Indonesia has changed, the nickel ore premium is firm, and the domestic port inventory has increased [195][196] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The output of pure nickel remains high, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the production of Indonesian nickel iron has slightly recovered [195][196] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The price of stainless steel fluctuates, the production of steel mills recovers limitedly, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The new energy demand remains high [195][196] - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate [195][196] - **Investment View**: Weak in the short term. Pay attention to macro - factors and policy changes in resource - rich countries [195][196] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in a range for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage in the nickel market; Sell on rallies for single - side trading and no arbitrage in the stainless - steel market [195][196]