Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on the livestock cycle, particularly for beef and raw milk, anticipating a reversal in the domestic beef cycle [3] - The report emphasizes that the official capacity control in the pig industry is expected to enhance cash flow for leading enterprises, positioning them as potential beneficiaries in a contracting industry [3] - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from limited supply fluctuations and a recovery in demand, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow returns [3] - The feed sector is projected to see increased industrialization and specialization, allowing leading feed companies to widen their competitive advantages [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are on an upward trend, with the domestic fattened bull price at 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week and 9.38% year-on-year [2] - The average price of beef in the market is 61.55 CNY/kg, reflecting a 1.05% increase week-on-week and a 21.28% increase year-on-year [2] - Raw milk prices are expected to reach a turning point in 2026, with the average price at 3.02 CNY/kg, down 0.33% week-on-week and down 3.20% year-on-year [2] Swine - The pig price as of January 16, 2026, is 12.69 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.44% [1] - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 309.05 CNY/head, with a significant week-on-week increase of 22.00% [1] Poultry - The price of broiler chicks is stable at 3.07 CNY/chick, with no change week-on-week [1] - The price of broilers is 7.52 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.53% week-on-week [1] Feed - The domestic soybean price is 4072 CNY/ton, up 0.59% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 3176 CNY/ton, down 0.44% week-on-week [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with the current price at 2324 CNY/ton, up 0.52% week-on-week and 10.14% year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the livestock sector include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - For swine, recommended companies are HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Food Group, TianKang Bio, and ShenNong Group [3] - In the poultry sector, recommended companies include LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., and ShengNong Development [3] - For feed, HaiDa Group is recommended [3] - In the pet sector, Guaibao Pet is highlighted as a potential investment [3]

Group 1: Market Activity - A total of 26 companies submitted applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last week, marking a recent high in submissions [2] - Among the 26 companies, 3 passed the hearing, and 1 company is currently in the process of an IPO [10][12] Group 2: Industry Highlights - The semiconductor and computing sectors are particularly active, with companies like Weizhao Semiconductor and Placo Electronics submitting applications [2] - Weizhao Semiconductor reported a revenue of 615 million yuan and a profit of 40.25 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025 [2] - Placo Electronics achieved a revenue of 751 million yuan and a profit of 76.11 million yuan for the same period [2] Group 3: Robotics Sector - Several robotics companies, including Yifei Intelligent and Estun, are also pursuing listings [3] - Estun is ranked first in the industrial robotics sector by revenue, with a market share of 1.7% globally [3] - TuoStar is recognized as a leader in the domestic industrial robotics market, with a revenue of 1.688 billion yuan and a net profit of 47 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025 [3] Group 4: Biopharmaceutical Sector - Multiple biopharmaceutical companies are applying for listings, including Zeling Bio and Exegenesis Bio Inc. [4][5] - Zeling Bio reported a loss of 1.19 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, while Exegenesis Bio has not yet received regulatory approval for its products [5][6] - Shanghai Shengsheng achieved a revenue of 538 million yuan and a net profit of 11.3 million yuan for the same period [4] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is seeing significant activity, with companies like Yuanji Food and Qian Dama submitting applications [7] - Yuanji Food reported an adjusted net profit of 192 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a 31% increase year-on-year [7] - Qian Dama achieved a GMV of 14.8 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top player in the community fresh product retail chain industry [7] Group 6: New Listings - Four new stocks were listed last week, with all experiencing price increases on their first trading day [13] - The stock of Howie Group, a global leader in CMOS image sensors, rose by 16.22% on its debut [13] - Zhaoyi Innovation, a storage chip leader, saw its stock price increase by 38.27% on its first day of trading [13]

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月18日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约上涨，主要在于库存下滑及美国生柴政 策预期向好。加拿大总理访华，市场预期中加贸易关系或有缓和迹 象，印尼维持B4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, the spot is firm and macro funds boost the market, but the hedging pressure above 12,000 for off - season contracts increases. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter continues to grow, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - The supply pressure of eggs still exists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the demand before the Spring Festival drives up the egg price, the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to go through a bottom - grinding process [6][78]. - The short - term supply and demand of corn are balanced, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is looser year - on - year, which restricts the upside space [7][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Views Summary 3.1.1 Live Pigs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the national spot price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2503 was up 210 yuan/ton. The high price suppresses consumption, but the slow enterprise出栏 rhythm and other factors drive up the price [5][54]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, but the supply remains high before the first half of the year. The supply pressure in the first quarter is large according to piglet data. The planned出栏 volume of large - scale enterprises in January decreases, the出栏 weight increases, and the secondary fattening is sporadic [5][54]. - **Demand End**: The slaughter rate and volume decline, the fresh - sales rate increases, and the frozen - product inventory decreases. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak [5][54]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows rise, the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increases slightly [5][54]. - **Weekly Summary**: There is a risk of pig price decline in the short - term, and the price is not optimistic during the Spring Festival and after. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds. In the long - term, the industry can hedge at high prices when the profit is positive [5][54]. 3.1.2 Eggs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the average price in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.37 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of eggs 2603 was up 32 yuan/500 kg. The approaching Spring Festival drives up the egg price [6][78]. - **Supply End**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January is at an average level, and the inventory is slowly decreasing but still large. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but it still takes time [6][78]. - **Demand End**: The approaching Spring Festival drives up the demand, and the substitution demand is good. The inventory in the production link is not large, while that in the circulation link is relatively high [6][78]. - **Weekly Summary**: The egg price rises seasonally in the short - term, but the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [6][78]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge the 03 contract after the Spring Festival at high prices [6][78]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of corn 2603 was up 18 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level [7][104]. - **Supply End**: The national grain - selling progress is 53%, and the supply is relatively average. The import of corn increases, and the inventory in ports decreases [7][104]. - **Demand End**: The feed demand is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to a shift to wheat procurement. The deep - processing demand is limited by factors such as high inventory and low profit [7][104]. - **Weekly Summary**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is looser year - on - year [7][104]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and hedging at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the upside space is restricted [7][104]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs 2503 rose, the basis decreased slightly, and the spot price increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on supply, demand, cost, profit, etc. show that the supply pressure is large, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive [10]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, the production performance is improving, and the supply in the first quarter is expected to be high [17]. 3.2.2 Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of eggs increased, and the basis strengthened [59]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the supply pressure exists, and the demand before the Spring Festival drives the price up [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly decreasing, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the long - term [78]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn increased, and the basis strengthened [84]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is looser [85]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the import increases, and the demand is rigid but the deep - processing demand is limited [104].

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pork prices during the consumption peak season, with the average price of lean pigs at 12.49 CNY/kg, up 2.6% week-on-week but down 22.7% year-on-year [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of leading feed companies expanding overseas, suggesting a focus on their international business growth [6][16]. Livestock Farming - The average price of 6.5 kg piglets has risen to 330 CNY/head, reflecting a 7.5% week-on-week increase, indicating a positive outlook among farmers for pork prices in the second half of the year [6][14]. - Major recommended companies in the livestock sector include Wen's Food Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention also on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope [6][14]. - The report notes that the industry is in a "tug-of-war" state, with companies possessing cost advantages having a significant competitive edge [6][14]. Dairy Industry - The current price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and 3.2% year-on-year, while some regions see prices rebounding to 3.3-3.4 CNY/kg [15]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in beef prices due to supply constraints, recommending companies like Yuran Dairy and Modern Dairy [15]. Feed and Animal Health - Prices for common and specialty fish and shrimp have continued to rise, driven by tight supply and increased demand as the Spring Festival approaches [16]. - The report suggests that leading feed companies are likely to see market share growth due to their comprehensive advantages, with a focus on international expansion [16]. - In the animal health sector, companies are expanding into pet healthcare, with recommendations for companies like Keqian Biological and Princely Biological [16]. Agricultural Sector - The report indicates that the domestic corn price is 2364 CNY/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3196 CNY/ton, down 0.9% [18][44]. - The report highlights the importance of biotechnology advancements and industry consolidation in the seed sector, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [18]. Market Performance - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.7 percentage points, with the animal health sector showing a 1.2% increase [22]. - The report notes that the livestock sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with self-bred pigs showing a profit of 7.39 CNY/head [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recovery in pig prices is driven by inventory replenishment, with prices expected to reach a turning point in Q2 2026 [2][12] - The report emphasizes the structural growth trends in the post-cycle sector, indicating that if the current round of pig production capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, profits in the industry chain are likely to gradually transmit downstream [3][35] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The report forecasts a significant recovery in pig prices, with the national average price reaching 13 CNY/kg by January 18, 2026, following a structural supply shortage [12] - The report notes that the market's pessimistic expectations regarding pig prices are likely to be corrected, as the supply side shows structural shortages and the average weight of pigs remains at historical lows [9][12] Poultry Sector - White feather broiler prices have shown a slight decline, with the average price at 7.59 CNY/kg as of January 16, 2026, reflecting limited increases in slaughter volumes and rising inventory levels among processing enterprises [16] - Yellow feather broiler prices are expected to remain strong, with price differentials among different types of chickens widening [21] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices rising to 2363.92 CNY/ton and wheat prices at 2515.89 CNY/ton as of January 16, 2026 [25][43] - The demand side shows strong pricing from traders, with some deep processing enterprises increasing purchase prices [25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) being highlighted for potential investment [3][35] - It also suggests opportunities in the planting chain and pet food sectors, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) and Pet Food Company (301498) being noted [3][35]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the share reduction plan by the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Guangdong Yuehai Feed Group Co., Ltd., indicating a planned reduction of up to 20,906,294 shares, which is 3.00% of the total share capital excluding repurchased shares [3]. Group 1: Shareholding Structure - The controlling shareholder, Zhanjiang Shrimp Feed Co., Ltd., holds 264,612,000 shares, accounting for 37.80% of the total share capital [3]. - The actual controller, Mr. Zheng Shixuan, holds 1,063,999 shares, representing 0.15% of the total share capital [3]. - The concerted actor, Zhanjiang Chengze Investment Center (Limited Partnership), holds 52,392,000 shares, which is 7.48% of the total share capital [3]. Group 2: Reduction Plan Details - The planned reduction will occur within three months from January 15, 2026, to April 14, 2026, with a maximum of 20,906,294 shares to be reduced [3]. - The reduction will be executed through block trading for up to 13,937,594 shares (2% of the total share capital excluding repurchased shares) and through centralized bidding for up to 6,968,700 shares (1% of the total share capital excluding repurchased shares) [3]. Group 3: Impact of Share Reduction - As of the announcement date, the total share capital of the company is 700,000,000 shares, with 3,120,268 shares in the repurchase account, leading to an adjusted total of 696,879,732 shares [4]. - Following the reduction, the combined shareholding of the controlling shareholder, actual controller, and concerted actor will decrease from 482,173,999 shares to 479,173,999 shares, reducing their ownership percentage from 69.19% to 68.76% [4]. - The implementation of this reduction plan will not lead to a change in control of the company and will not significantly impact the governance structure or ongoing operations [4].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope has revised its A-share issuance plan for the second time, reducing the fundraising cap to 3.338 billion yuan, primarily to repay bank debts and invest in smart farming projects amid ongoing losses in its pig farming sector [2][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Financial Pressure - The initial fundraising plan announced in December 2023 aimed for a maximum of 7.35 billion yuan, with significant allocations for smart farming projects and debt repayment [2]. - The first revision in August 2024 lowered the cap to 3.8 billion yuan, eliminating the acquisition of minority stakes and adjusting project funding [2]. - The latest revision further reduces the cap to 3.338 billion yuan, with 2.338 billion yuan for smart farming and 1 billion yuan for debt repayment, highlighting the company's financial strain [2][5]. Group 2: Industry Context and Policy Impact - The pig farming industry is facing challenges due to low prices and strict capacity controls, leading many companies to halt expansion projects [3][8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture has mandated a reduction in breeding sows and overall production, impacting major players including New Hope [3]. - New Hope's smart farming project aims to upgrade existing facilities without expanding capacity, but the total investment of 2.92 billion yuan poses a long payback period risk [4]. Group 3: Performance and Profitability - New Hope's pig farming sector has incurred losses for four consecutive years, with total losses amounting to 111.5 billion yuan in 2021 and 2.8 billion yuan in 2024 [8]. - The company’s feed business, which accounted for 66.66% of revenue in 2024, has become a crucial profit source, although its profit margins are significantly lower than those of the pig farming sector [6][7]. - Recent trends show a decline in pig prices, with the average price dropping below 12 yuan per kilogram, further pressuring profitability [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the concentration in Vietnam's feed industry is expected to increase significantly, with the combined market share of the top five participants projected to rise from 47.0% in 2024 to 60.5% by 2029 [2] Group 2 - The article highlights that this increase in market concentration suggests a potential shift in competitive dynamics within the industry, which may impact pricing and market strategies among existing players [2] - The information was provided by Haida Group in response to investor inquiries on an interactive platform, indicating active engagement with stakeholders [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company, Haida Group, is focused on providing an integrated product and service portfolio that includes feed, seedlings, and animal health products to meet the diverse needs of the agricultural industry [1] - The company is committed to offering production materials and technical services to agricultural producers and farmers [1]