交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-3） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：主产地煤矿复产进程持续推进，产能释放节奏加快，焦煤市场供应端宽松预期增强。当前 下游采购积极性不佳，中间贸易商心态较为谨慎，囤货意愿不强，市场交投氛围整体偏淡，部分煤矿为 加速出货，在报价上展现出一定灵活性，部分煤种价格出现小幅松动，线上竞拍市场流拍现象仍有发生， 且成交价格多围绕低位波动；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差106；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，空翻多；偏多 6、预期：节后钢厂实际需求表现一般，247家主要钢企日均铁水产量虽然环比略有回升，但整体仍处于 低位，对焦炭和炼焦煤的刚性需求有限，加之盈利率偏低，导致钢厂采购压价意愿强，按需采购为主， 预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳运行。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not mention an industry investment rating [6] 2. Core Views - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the spot market is strong. Domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market is entering a bearish season, so a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market is in a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. However, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions. Automobile production and sales are declining, while tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are rebounding [6][8][25] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has not changed much recently, and the Qingdao area is experiencing inventory accumulation [6][16][19] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [22] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend. The basis weakened on March 2nd [6][10][37] - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main force has a net long position, and the long positions are increasing [6] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - **Bearish Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] - **Risk Points**: Global economic recession, lower - than - expected domestic economic growth, and Sino - US trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend [6][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and oil market is generally under pressure, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillating pattern. The soybean meal market lacks upward drivers due to supply surplus, high inventory, and low demand, while the palm oil market has a mixed fundamental situation [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market is experiencing a high - level correction, with both internal and external pressures. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has limited impact on agricultural products. Affected by the expected Brazilian harvest and uncertain Chinese demand, US soybeans have slightly declined from a 20 - month high, dragging down soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the fundamentals are weak, with oil mills resuming production, high soybean meal inventory, and low purchasing willingness from downstream feed enterprises, which weakens the bullish sentiment. The weather in South American soybean - growing areas is a key factor affecting future yields [5][6] - **Future Focus**: The weather performance in South American soybean - growing areas [5][6] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of palm oil are mixed. Heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia may lead to a significant decline in February production, but weak export data drags down the de - stocking expectation. Indonesia's increase in export tax to support the domestic biodiesel policy provides support for prices. With the rotation of the oil and fat sector, the overall support is strengthened [7] - **Future Focus**: The repair of the soybean - palm oil price difference and the inventory digestion rhythm [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to maintain a strong stance on February 27, 2026, with a short - term trend of being oscillatory and slightly strong, and a medium - term trend of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillatory and slightly strong [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Intraday**: Strong [1] - **Reference View**: Strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: The military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend led to a sharp rise in geopolitical risks. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused a significant gap - up in crude oil futures prices. The cost factor boosted downstream chemical commodity futures, indirectly driving up the Shanghai rubber futures. The Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and slightly strong trend on the night session of Monday, and are expected to run strongly on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillatory and slightly strong [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Intraday**: Strong [1] - **Reference View**: Strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: Due to the same military conflict in the Middle East, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp rise in crude oil futures prices, downstream butadiene and synthetic rubber will be strongly driven upward. The synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and slightly strong trend on the night session of Monday, and are expected to run strongly on Tuesday [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, an oscillating trend in the medium - term, and a strong performance intraday. The overall view is that it will operate strongly. The core logic is that geopolitical risks are disturbing, and the methanol market is running strongly. [1] - With the military attack by the US and Israel on Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has rapidly increased. Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to a significant increase in the premium of methanol. If the shipping lane is closed or methanol plants are damaged, the overseas methanol supply will face a shortage risk. Geopolitical factors have overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol in the short - term. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures will maintain a strong posture on Tuesday. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract shows an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract shows an oscillating trend [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract shows a strong performance [1]. Core Logic - Geopolitical risks, specifically the military attack by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have increased the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. This has the potential to disrupt the transportation of methanol and cause a shortage in overseas supply, leading to a strong performance in the methanol market. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamentals and stable import inventories. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil situation in December last year was slightly bearish, but the export data in January increased, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The US - China relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and it is expected to implement the B50 plan in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The current shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8460, the basis is 200, and the spot is at a premium to the futures. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, the previous value was 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [2] - Main position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8880, the basis is - 18, and the spot is at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, the previous value was 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [3] - Main position: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report situation is the same as above, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, the basis is 561, and the spot is at a premium to the futures. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, the previous value was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [4] - Main position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high level in history, the domestic oil and fat inventory continues to accumulate, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Current main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on February 28, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to disruptions in oil transportation and potential impacts on energy - related commodity prices. Energy - related commodities are expected to have different levels of price fluctuations, with the order of expected price change being crude oil > fuel oil > low - sulfur fuel oil > LPG > methanol > asphalt > plastic > polyester > propylene > PP. Silver's price volatility is greater than that of gold, but gold has better long - term stability. The European shipping line may have a larger increase and a longer - lasting rise compared to 2025 [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - After the military attack on Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens of cargo ships are gathered in the waters of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE outside the Strait, and at least 150 oil tankers are anchored in the high - seas of the Middle - East Gulf across the Strait, with at least 100 more near the coasts of the UAE and Oman. Morgan Chase warns that if the Strait is fully closed, the storage capacity of seven Middle - Eastern countries can only support production for "no more than 25 days" before forced production suspension. Financial institutions such as Citigroup and Goldman Sachs predict that oil prices will start from $100 [3][4]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: A top divergence is about to appear, and there is a downward adjustment requirement in the short - term. It is recommended to sell short on rallies during intraday trading [6]. - **Gold**: Affected by the geopolitical factors of the Iran conflict, gold opened significantly higher and trended upwards, and should be treated as a generally bullish and volatile market [11]. - **Iron Ore**: Production resumption may have some positive effects, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to policy and sentiment factors. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market. The supply from Australia and Brazil is normal, and there is an expectation of a loose supply in the medium - to - long - term due to the mine production capacity release cycle [13][14]. - **Glass**: During the seasonal off - season, the daily melting volume is slightly decreasing, and the factory inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a wide - range volatile market [16][17]. - **Methanol**: China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption (domestic production is about 92 million tons). About 60% of this imported volume comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian supply on the domestic market pricing is about 50%. Any change in Iran can cause significant fluctuations in the domestic market [18]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average. The inventory at domestic ports continues to accumulate, and it will take time to digest the post - holiday inventory. Downstream paper mills are gradually resuming work, and some paper enterprises have issued price - increase notices. There is a serious price inversion for double - offset paper and coated paper. The futures market is in a range - bound consolidation state [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This has led to increased market volatility, with risk - averse assets such as gold and the US dollar rising, and stock markets showing mixed trends. - Commodity prices are also highly influenced by the geopolitical situation. Energy prices have soared, and different commodities have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical impacts. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8. The Middle East situation led to increased risk - averse sentiment, pushing up the prices of the US dollar and gold. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased, and US bond yields rose nearly 10bp. Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while silver is weaker [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on the Iran war did not set a time frame, and the market risk - averse sentiment recovered, causing the US dollar index to continue rising. It is recommended to be bullish on the US dollar in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 2 - month manufacturing PMI continued to expand for two months, but the input price index soared. The Middle East geopolitical risk led to market inflation concerns, and the US stock market was expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share trading volume increased and was differentiated, with the turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Affected by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, oil, gas, and military stocks rose, supporting the index. It is recommended to reduce long - position strategies in stock index futures and wait for the situation of the Iran war to become clear [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The prices of precious metals and chemicals rose, and the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts during the Two Sessions increased slightly, causing treasury bond futures to rise. It is expected that the bond market will be volatile before the Two Sessions and that the impact of supply shocks after the sessions needs to be noted [25][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in February decreased compared with the previous year. Black metals continued to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view steel prices from a volatile perspective in the short term [28][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, the supply recovered quickly, but the terminal demand had not started significantly. The market was in a volatile pattern, and the policy changes around the Two Sessions and the downstream resumption of work rhythm need to be noted [32][33]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the Ordos region was strong, with prices rising slightly. The port price was expected to continue rising, but the high inventory of power plants restricted the upward elasticity of coal prices. The short - term coal price was expected to be strong [34][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The terminal demand was slowly recovering, but the iron - making water recovery speed was expected to be slow due to inventory pressure. The supply was at a high level, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on Iranian iron ore production and sales was uncertain. The iron ore price was expected to continue in a volatile market [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased. Market institutions lowered the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans. The US weekly export inspection was better than expected. The soybean meal futures price was expected to be volatile, and the purchase of US soybeans, import policies, and reserve dynamics in China need to be continued to be monitored [38][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil inventory increased. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in February. The rise in the oil market was mainly affected by the external market. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking amplitude of palm oil, the impact of Australian rapeseed on rapeseed oil, and the final RFS rule of the US in March for soybean oil [41][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The national average corn price was generally strong. The low inventory of ports, slow release of farmers' selling pressure, and tight supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast provided support for prices. However, the risk of concentrated selling of ground - stored corn in the Northeast, weak demand from the breeding and deep - processing industries, and potential wheat auctions may suppress prices. It is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase high prices [44][45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of US sugar decreased for the first time in four weeks. The sugar production in India and Thailand was lower than expected. The sugar production in Guangxi was delayed. The domestic sugar market was expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [46][51]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The key copper export route in the Congo was interrupted due to a bridge collapse. The copper price was affected by the complex Middle East situation and short - term fundamental concerns. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [52][54]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The profit of SQM in the fourth quarter increased. The production of lithium carbonate in March was expected to increase, and the demand also showed a high - growth trend. However, there were potential risks in the power battery demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and pay attention to price corrections after the supply increases in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased slightly. The lead price was expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to consider mid - term long positions [58][60]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. The zinc price was affected by the rise in natural gas and European electricity prices. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions, hold existing long positions, and consider taking profits on rallies [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The global tin market was in a long - term structural tight - balance. The supply was restricted by various factors, and the demand was driven by emerging industries. The short - term price was affected by high inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro and supply - side news [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US will take measures to ease the rise in oil prices. The statements of the US and Iran on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were inconsistent. The oil price was expected to have a high upward risk before the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Qatar's energy facilities were attacked, and the production of liquefied natural gas was suspended. The LPG market was expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price was mainly driven by geopolitical risks and crude oil costs. The short - term price was expected to follow the trend of crude oil, and the development of the US - Iran situation and OPEC+ production policies need to be monitored [72][73]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The RCF tender was completed. The domestic urea supply was abundant, and the demand was increasing. The market was optimistic about the spring - plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast. It is recommended to replenish inventory according to actual needs and view the futures market from a volatile perspective [74][75]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price was slightly lower. The supply was at a high level, and the demand recovery needed time. The market was expected to be in a volatile pattern, with a bias towards strength under geopolitical conflicts [76][77]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand support was limited in the short term. The caustic soda market was expected to be in a low - level and weak - volatile pattern [78][80]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The rise in the styrene price was mainly due to the increase in crude oil prices. The supply and demand of styrene were expected to improve marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to the intensity of the conflict and potential credit risks [81][83]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Five major global shipping giants suspended shipping. The Middle East geopolitical situation led to a full - contract limit - up of European - route futures. The current rise in the market was mainly driven by sentiment, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns [84][85].

期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c 研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力增加 猪价整体下行 研究员：陈界正 1 / 4 研究所 农产品研发报告 在，市场大小猪价差维持高位，二育仍然相对谨慎。短期来看，生猪市场仍然有一定压 力。后续主要受存栏下降后供应端对于价格带动影响，上方空间相对有限。 生猪期货价格整体呈现一定震荡表现，近期现货价格整体呈现一定下行压力。由于 后续现货价格可能仍偏于下行，预计期货方面大方向仍然以偏下行为主。不过由于大小 猪价差持续拉大，预计后续出栏节奏可能有所放缓，价格压力可能有所好转。期货方面 在此期间可能有所上涨表现，但中长期来看，供应端压力仍然是市场主要影响因素，在 养殖端产能仍然维持相对高位的情况下，预计总体价格压力仍然相对明显，期货预计整 体仍以低位震荡运行为主。 交易策略： 单边：建议 11 月合约逢高布局空单 om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2026/3/2 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market fluctuated and rebounded last week, with major indices closing higher. The CSI 1000 Index led the gains with a weekly increase of 4.34%. Steel and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well, rising 12.27% and 9.77% respectively, while the media sector was weak, falling about 5.10%. Market focus was on geopolitical developments and changes in US dollar liquidity. The weekend air - strike by the US and Israel on Iran disturbed the geopolitical situation, causing significant increases in precious metals and crude oil, and raising market risk - aversion. In the short - term, the US dollar strengthened, but its upside was restricted by the yen. The RMB remained in a slightly strong and fluctuating pattern, supporting the stock index. Geopolitical changes and domestic policy signals should be continuously monitored [1] Group 2: Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options showed differentiation, mainly falling. Currently, the IV of the STAR 50 options (IV = 23%) and ChiNext ETF options (IV = 20%) has fallen below the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options is in the range of 11% - 13%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is in the range of 20% - 22%. The position PCR of most financial options is in the range of 80% - 110%, slightly rising from the previous week [2] Group 3: Strategy Outlook - The market may continue the slightly strong and fluctuating pattern, and the IV of some financial options has declined. Given that steel and non - ferrous metals sectors performed well last week while the media sector was weak, and considering that the current geopolitical situation disturbs market risk preference but the strong RMB exchange rate still supports the market, the medium - to - long - term market trend is expected to remain positive. Investors can continue to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300. Since the current IV of options has slightly declined, they can also buy out - of - the - money long - term call options of the corresponding indices. For the STAR 50 Index, which has large recent fluctuations and still high static valuation, if holding the underlying assets, investors can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If significant spot returns have been accumulated, investors can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with irrational market rallies, such as for the ChiNext Index. The discount of the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures has converged, and investors can consider rolling over to the 2606 contract, which still has a high discount, and continue to form a covered call strategy of long stock index and short out - of - the - money call option [3] Group 4: Market Data - The report provides a large amount of data on various financial products, including the closing price, price change rate, IV, IV change (daily), historical quantile, IV median of the past year, option trading volume, and position PCR of different underlying assets such as the SSE 50ETF, SSE 50 Index, SSE 300ETF, and others from February 24 - 27, 2026. It also shows the IV and related data of different months for each underlying asset, as well as the skew index of the main - contract months [4]