作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 美联储按兵不动。宏观方面，商务部等九单位启动2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动，涵盖"好吃""好 住""好行""好游""好购""好玩"六方面内容。活动时间为2月15至23日春节9天假期，旨在打造全域联动、 全民乐享的春节消费盛宴。海外方面，美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数升至52.6，远高于预期的48.5，创 2022年8月以来新高，主要受新订单和产出稳健增长的提振。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，上证指数跌2.48%收于4015.75点，创业板指跌2.46%。行业 方面，板块指数跌多涨少，仅食品饮料、银行行业收红，有色金属、钢铁、基础化工、煤炭行业跌幅居 前。当日沪深两市成交额约为2.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.05%报49407.66 点。 期指基差回落。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货基差大幅回落。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量增加， 仅IM持仓量同步增加。 策略 当日国内市场逐步消化海外流动性预期的波动影响，中证500、中证1000的波动幅度相对更为明显，所 受冲击也较为突出。不过从当前市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. For LLDPE, factors such as cost support from oil prices and neutral industry inventory are considered, but downstream demand is weak. For PP, similar factors like cost support and increased PDH device maintenance are noted, along with weak downstream demand in the off - season [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Due to geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are strong with short - term declines, affecting polyolefins. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6880 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 34.8 tons (-3.1), which is relatively high [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, and the industry inventory is neutral [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while weak downstream demand year - on - year is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Geopolitical disturbances affect oil prices and polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the plastic weaving and pipe industries is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6720 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The PP 2605 contract basis is 6, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 40.1 tons (-3.2), which is relatively high [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with short positions increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, the industry inventory is neutral, and PDH device maintenance has increased [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while the off - season of downstream demand is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6880 (-60), the 05 contract price is 6878 (-136), the basis is 2, the warehouse receipt is 9308 (-71), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 34.8 tons, and the social inventory is 48.5 tons [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6720 (-30), the 05 contract price is 6714 (-110), the basis is 6, the warehouse receipt is 17223 (-13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 40.1 tons, and the social inventory is 26.9 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, with capacity showing an overall increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 3584.5, with a growth rate of 12.4% [14] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, from 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, and capacity also shows an increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5% [16]

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 黄金期货跌 | 1.35%报 | 4680.90 | 美元/盎司，COMEX | 白银期货涨 | 0.93%报 | 79.27 | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 | 3.86%报 | 1045 | 元/克，沪银主力合约下跌 | 20%报 | 20600 | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、截至 | 2 | 月 | 2 | 日，全球最大黄金 | ETF--SPDR | Gold | Trust | 持仓较上个交易日维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment suggests a reduction in investment weight for small and growth stocks, advocating for a strategy of overweighting the CSI 300 while underweighting the CSI 1000 due to increasing market risks [3][8][10]. Regulatory Environment - In late January, regulatory authorities expressed a clear intention to cool down the market and reduce investor leverage through multiple measures, including selling broad-based ETFs, adjusting financing ratios, enhancing monitoring of individual stock speculation, and media communication [3][9]. - The significant selling of stock ETFs has led to a noticeable decline in market risk appetite [3][9]. Policy Outlook - As February approaches, a new round of policy negotiations is expected, with domestic policy focusing on the "Two Sessions" and potential increased support for emerging industries, which may help mitigate downward market pressure [9]. - External factors include the tightening monetary stance of the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a repricing of interest rate expectations and liquidity tightening, potentially impacting both U.S. and domestic equity markets [9]. Market Dynamics - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility, with a recommendation to lower risk exposure and avoid risk-sensitive small and growth stocks [4][10]. - Since the fourth quarter of last year, technology-driven growth stocks have consistently outperformed, but the rapid rise in valuations for small and growth stocks may have peaked, while value and large-cap stocks are now in an oversold state [4][9]. Commodity and Stock Interaction - Recent significant declines in commodities have triggered corrections in related cyclical stocks, leading to a substantial drop in the broader market; however, the risks are considered manageable [10]. - The effective transmission mechanism of "commodity-stock linkage" poses a risk of localized declines, particularly in resource-related cyclical sectors, rather than dragging down the entire market [10]. Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - The prevalence of quantitative trading and leveraged funds in the market may amplify short-term volatility through algorithmic trading and leverage-induced sell-offs [5][10]. - Historical analysis of the pre-Spring Festival market suggests a higher probability of large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks, reinforcing the recommendation to reduce exposure to small and growth stocks in the current risk environment [5][10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周五夜盘黄金白银大跌，白银触及跌停板 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-02-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险降温，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 核心逻辑：近期海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是近期支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 估值端提升较快，股指震荡整固 需求升温 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均单边下跌。沪深京三市成交额 26066 亿元，较上日缩量 2558 亿元。板块方 面，由于大宗商品在亚太时段被大幅抛售，金属、石油天 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest released US ISM Manufacturing PMI in January soared from the previous month's 47.9 to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5, indicating a substantial expansion in the US manufacturing sector [7][8]. - The sharp decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals was mainly due to concerns over the overseas AI bubble and the unexpected adjustment of the Fed's replacement candidates. However, there may still be buying opportunities at relatively safe low - points, especially for copper in the long - term [9][11]. - The short - term outlook for stock index futures is expected to stabilize and recover. The end of the "Spring Rally" was affected by policy adjustments and external risks, but there is still a possibility of a second - wave rally [13]. Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Metals Gold and Silver - Yesterday, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their decline. The sharp drop was mainly triggered by the fall of US stocks, extreme trading convergence in precious metals, and the potential hawkish stance of the new Fed Chairman. In the short - term, it is recommended to consider option strategies mainly based on selling options, and the internal - external spread of silver may converge. The support level for gold is lowered to $4275 per ounce, and for silver, it remains at $70 per ounce [9][10]. Copper - The price of copper was weak due to pessimistic sentiment. The US manufacturing expansion and production changes in major copper - producing regions such as Zambia, Chile, and Canada affected the market. The copper trend strength was neutral [24][25][26]. Zinc - Zinc was in a range - bound oscillation. News such as the delay of the US employment report and the potential Fed Chairman's plan to shrink the balance sheet influenced the market. The zinc trend strength was neutral [27][28][29]. Lead - The decrease in LME lead inventory limited the price decline. Positive US manufacturing data and the delay of the US employment report were important news. The lead trend strength was neutral [30][31]. Tin - Tin was in a phase of decline and consolidation. The price of tin dropped significantly, and there were various macro and industry news such as Iran - US negotiations. The tin trend strength was bearish [33][34][35]. Aluminum - Aluminum was waiting for market repair. Alumina had a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There were various data changes in the aluminum market, and relevant news such as Iran - US nuclear negotiations and India - US trade agreements affected the market. The aluminum trend strength was bullish, while alumina and aluminum alloy were neutral [37][38]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum was slightly recovering in the oscillation, and palladium had strong resilience but was still in low - level oscillation. The market was affected by factors such as the delay of the US employment report and the expansion of the US manufacturing sector. The trend strength of both was neutral [39][40][43]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The marginal influence on nickel was dominated by macro sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. For stainless steel, there were frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and nickel - iron was expected to support the price. The trend strength of both was neutral [46][47][52]. 2. Energy - related Coal - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both were in high - level oscillations. The coking coal market had issues such as a high auction non - sale rate, and the price of both was affected by factors like the adjustment of the CCI metallurgical coal index [74][75]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable. The market was affected by factors such as port inventory changes and potential production cuts in Indonesia [79][80]. 3. Chemicals PX, PTA, and MEG - PX followed the sharp decline of oil prices and was in an interval - oscillation market. PTA was also in an interval - oscillation market with a bearish view on the monthly spread. MEG was in a unilateral interval - oscillation market with large supply pressure. The market was affected by factors such as the restart of domestic and overseas devices, changes in the supply - demand of PTA and MEG, and the decline of the overall commodity market [85][90][91]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber was in a weak - oscillation trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the production and sales of tires were affected by the approaching Spring Festival. Synthetic rubber was in a high - level decline, influenced by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical conflicts and the approaching boundary of valuation indicators [93][96][98]. LLDPE and PP - LLDPE had a narrowing import profit, limited offers, and weakened oil price support. PP was greatly affected by cost, and its profit might be repaired. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of raw material prices, changes in supply and demand, and the profit of production devices [99][100][103]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda was supported by cost, and the future expectation was strong. Although the high - inventory situation made the spot market weak before the Spring Festival, the market's expectation of future supply reduction was strong. The trend strength was bullish [105][107][110]. Pulp - Pulp was in a wide - range oscillation. The market demand was weak, and the high - inventory and weak - demand contradiction restricted the market trend. The trend strength was neutral [111][113][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable. The market demand was limited, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory areas. The trend strength was neutral [116][117]. Methanol - Methanol was oscillating with support. The macro - sentiment was weak, but the international energy price provided support. The supply - demand pattern was weak in the short - term, and the inventory was high. The trend strength was neutral [119][121][122]. Urea - Urea was in short - term horizontal consolidation. The macro - sentiment was weak, and there was a small - scale state reserve release. The fundamental pressure and support levels were clear. The trend strength was neutral [124][125][126]. Styrene - Styrene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the future supply - demand situation and the restart of parking devices should be noted. The trend strength was neutral [127][128]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be weakly stable and oscillating. The trend strength was neutral [130][132]. LPG and Propylene - LPG was strongly affected by short - term geopolitical factors, and the fundamental driving force was downward. Propylene's upward driving force was weakening, and attention should be paid to cost - end disturbances. The market was affected by factors such as price changes, device maintenance plans, and changes in shipping volume. The trend strength of both was neutral [134][138][139]. PVC - PVC had a strong sentiment, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly. Although there were some supporting factors in the short - term, the high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change, and attention should be paid to the future supply reduction situation. The trend strength was neutral [142][143][144]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil had a sharp decline and continued in a high - volatility state. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the decline, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continued to shrink. The trend strength of both was bearish [147]. 4. Others Logs - Logs had a slight upward exploration. The price and trading volume of log contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the manufacturing PMI. The trend strength was bullish [81][83][84]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European line) was in an oscillating market. The market was affected by factors such as the weakening of commodity sentiment, the easing of the geopolitical situation, and changes in shipping capacity. Different contracts had different strategies. The trend strength was neutral [149][160][162]. Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Resin - Both short - fiber and bottle - grade resin were in short - term oscillations after the release of emotional risks. The market was affected by factors such as price changes of upstream polyester raw materials and production and sales of products. The trend strength of both was neutral [165][166]. Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it was recommended to hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The price in the spot market was stable, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The trend strength was bearish [168][169][170]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The inventory in some ports decreased, and the price changed. The trend strength was neutral [173][174][175]. Fats and Oils - Palm oil was affected by the ebb of macro - sentiment and the attenuation of geopolitical influence, and soybean oil was in high - level oscillation adjustment. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and relevant policies in Indonesia. The trend strength of both was neutral [177][178][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal oscillated following the sentiment of the commodity market, and the state - reserve auction of soybeans had a positive impact. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans. The trend strength of both was neutral [183][185]. Corn - The decline range of corn was limited. The price in the spot market changed, and the futures price was affected by the overall market situation. The trend strength was neutral [186][187][188]. Sugar - Sugar was in a weak operation. The global sugar supply - demand situation changed, and attention should be paid to policies such as China's import of syrup and premixed powder. The trend strength was bearish [189][190][191]. Cotton - Cotton was expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The spot trading of cotton was average, the price of cotton yarn was stable, and the ICE cotton futures declined. The trend strength was bullish [193][194][197]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs weakened. The prices of futures and spot contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the prices of feed and related products. The trend strength was bearish [199][200]. Hogs - The pre - festival price increase of hogs was less than expected, and the pressure increased. The prices of spot and futures contracts changed, and the trend strength was bearish [202][203][204]. Peanuts - Peanuts were in a weak - oscillating state. The spot price was stable, and the futures price and trading volume changed. The trend strength was neutral [206][207][208].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback, with the Wind All A index declining by 2.71% and a trading volume of 2.61 trillion yuan [10] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline, with the CSI 1000 index down 3.39%, the CSI 500 index down 3.98%, the CSI 300 index down 2.13%, and the SSE 50 index down 2.07% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced to support the market, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high volatility phase, with a cautious approach recommended for investors [10] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract rose by 0.18%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts showed slight declines [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable interest rate of 1.4% [11] - The bond market's upward momentum is limited due to ongoing fiscal policies and structural interest rate adjustments [11] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market showed a slight recovery, but overall performance remained weak, with domestic silver and platinum-palladium futures hitting the limit down [12] - The gold-silver ratio rose to 58.1, and the platinum-palladium price difference narrowed to 404 USD/ounce [12] - The recent volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to forced liquidation due to extreme overbuying, but long-term support factors remain intact [12]