Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors. The temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war and the favorable USDA supply - demand report boost the soybean market, but profit - taking by bulls restricts the upward movement. Ideal sowing conditions in the US Midwest put pressure on soybean prices. China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decrease due to reduced soybean meal usage in the breeding industry [3]. - The trend intensity of soybean meal is - 1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating the trend of the main - contract futures prices on the reporting day's daytime session [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean No.1 2507 closed at 4160 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 (+0.10%), and 4155 yuan/ton at night, down 5 (-0.12%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2886 yuan/ton during the day session, down 7 (-0.24%), and 2880 yuan/ton at night, down 23 (-0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 07 closed at 1075 cents/bushel, up 5.0 (+0.47%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 07 closed at 293.6 dollars/short - ton, down 4.7 (-1.58%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal is 3030 - 3160 yuan/ton. The spot basis is M2509 + 150/+200, with different basis levels for different delivery months [1]. - In East China, the price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu for 14 - 18 day delivery is 3050 yuan/ton (M2509 + 100), down 50 compared to the previous day [1]. - In South China, the price of soybean meal in Zhanjiang Bohai is 3100 yuan/ton, and Hainan Oscar's 8 - 9 month price is M2509 + 70, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.1 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 9.35 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 10.06 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared to 9.71 million tons two trading days ago [1]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On May 13, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.4%. The market is boosted by the Sino - US trade agreement and the USDA supply - demand report, but also restricted by profit - taking and ideal sowing conditions in the US Midwest [3]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture's first 2025/26 outlook report shows that China's soybean imports will drop to 9580 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 2.8% decrease from the expected 9860 million tons this year. The USDA predicts China's soybean imports in 2025/26 to reach 11200 million tons [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the old - crop situation is overall bullish, while the new - crop has its own supply - demand characteristics. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - For sugar, the international sugar market may face a supply surplus in 2025/26, while the domestic sugar market is expected to have a stable supply - demand gap. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [6][7][9]. - For the oil sector, the MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact, but the overall sentiment of commodities has improved. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and the market is in a rebound phase [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn market is weak, while the domestic corn market is strong in the spot market, and the futures market has support [26]. - For hogs, the market is slightly volatile, with the spot price falling slowly and the futures market moving in a volatile manner [32]. - For peanuts, the short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger, with factors such as the expected increase in new - season planting area and weather conditions affecting the market [37]. - For eggs, the overall supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and wait and see [48]. - For apples, the cold - storage inventory is low, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger and volatile trend [53]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, due to the positive results of Sino - US trade negotiations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen under the influence of the macro - level [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 1.52% to 1069.5 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index rose 0.1% to 297.8 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean and meal exports in May to increase; EU's 2024/25 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, and meal are higher than last year; USDA's monthly supply - demand report shows bullish old - crop and new - crop has its own supply - demand data; oil mills' soybean and meal inventory data changed [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is mainly in a volatile mode; arbitrage is on hold; use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [4]. Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.42 (2.71%) to 18.18 cents/lb [5]. - **Important Information**: Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar market; China's sugar production and consumption are expected to change; Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of May decreased; domestic sugar spot prices and trading conditions [6][7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, partially close out long positions and partially hold; arbitrage is on hold; sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil had price changes [14]. - **Related Information**: MPOB's April palm oil supply - demand data shows inventory increase; SPPOMA data indicates palm oil production increase in early May; EU's palm oil and other oil imports change; domestic oil trading volume increased [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider lightly going long on palm oil or shorting after a rebound; for the YP 09 spread, partially close out positions and partially hold; options are on hold [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 0.8% to 443.5 cents/bu [24]. - **Important Information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to technical selling and good sowing conditions; US corn planting and emergence rates are high; future weather in the main producing areas is expected to be favorable; domestic corn port prices and spot prices changed [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to go long on 07 corn; for arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread in a volatile manner and buy 07 starch and short 07 corn; for options, consider the strategy of selling call options on the spot [27][29][30]. Hogs - **Related Information**: Hog prices are in a volatile state; prices of piglets and sows changed; agricultural product wholesale price index and pork average price decreased [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread; sell wide - straddle options [33]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable; peanut oil factory arrivals, prices, and inventory changed; peanut oil and peanut meal prices and sales conditions [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, lightly go long on 10 peanuts in a short - term and operate in a volatile manner; arbitrage and options are on hold [40][41][42]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main producing and selling areas changed; in - production laying hen inventory, egg - chick hatching, hen culling, egg sales, and inventory data changed [44][45][47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, close out short positions and wait and see; for arbitrage, go long on 08 and short 09; options are on hold [48][49][50]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased, exports and imports changed; spot prices are stable, and storage merchants' profit increased [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, build long positions on AP10 at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [56][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton declined, with the main contract falling 0.23 (0.35%) to 66.25 cents/lb [55]. - **Important Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations achieved progress; USDA's 25/26 cotton supply - demand data changed; the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index is stable [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen; arbitrage and options are on hold [58][60].

农产品日报 | 2025-05-14 巴西双周产量低于预期，原糖期价强势反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13330元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨，幅度+0.68%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14332元/吨，较前一日变动+247元/吨，现货基差CF09+1002，较前一日变动+157；3128B棉全国均价14384元/ 吨，较前一日变动+197元/吨，现货基差CF09+1054，较前一日变动+107。 近期市场资讯，近日美国农业部公布了5月份的全球棉花供需平衡表，首次给出了2025/26年度的全球棉花平衡表。 其中，全球年度产量2565万吨，较上一年度减少71万吨，主要是中国和澳大利亚分别减产65和33万吨、而巴西增 产27万吨。消费则增加30万吨至2571万吨，印度、土耳其等多国消费预期增长，而相应的下调了中国消费预期。 进出口量双双增长，中国由于产量下调因而上调进口，此外土耳其、印度、越南以及孟加拉也提高了进口预期。 出口端美国和巴西增长明显，澳大利亚、土耳其小幅下滑。整体棉花期末库存维持不变。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进 ...

2025年05月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和，连粕偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：关注巴西压榨进度 | 7 | | 棉花：市场乐观情绪推动棉花期货反弹 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：等待矛盾释放，短期博弈 | 11 | | 花生：现货偏强 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 14 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,954 | 涨跌幅 -0.87% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,036 | 涨跌幅 1.03% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球糖供应预期增加，糖价短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-14 免责声明 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨 ...

Core Insights - The palm oil market is experiencing a historic price inversion, with palm oil prices falling below the cost of production, leading to a significant decline in demand for palm oil [1] - The "cheap advantage" of palm oil is being questioned, as the current market conditions may not sustain this pricing trend for long [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price spread between soybean and palm oil has reached unprecedented levels, indicating a major shift in market dynamics [1] - There is a notable lack of buyers for palm oil, even at reduced prices, suggesting a potential oversupply or loss of market confidence [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The sustainability of palm oil's price advantage is under scrutiny, with analysts predicting potential changes in market conditions that could affect future pricing [1] - The current situation raises concerns about the long-term viability of palm oil as a competitive product in the global market [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13425 | 45 | 46,780 | 2037 | 98,070 | -3598 | | CF05合约 | 13070 | 90 | 3,164 | 345 | 32,091 | -2206 | | CF09合约 | 13330 | 90 | 288,431 | -93974 | 569,849 | -12943 | | CY01合约 | 19500 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 18650 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19545 | 115 | 391 | 202 | 1308 | -1 | | | | | 现货价格 | | | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | 8090 | -10 | -0.12% | 1 | -91.67% | 43 | 2.38% | | PK510 | 8198 | -24 | -0.29% | 44,850 | -28.31% | 88,012 | 0.90% | | PK601 | 8088 | -32 | -0.40% | 393 | -8.60% | 2,712 | 4.95% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-05-13 中美关系缓和，棉价应声上涨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13240元/吨，较前一日变动+290元/吨，幅度+2.24%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14085元/吨，较前一日变动+174元/吨，现货基差CF09+845，较前一日变动-116；3128B棉全国均价14187元 /吨，较前一日变动+65元/吨，现货基差CF09+947，较前一日变动-225。 近期市场资讯，4月巴西棉出口量为23.9万吨，环比（23.9万吨）基本持平，同比（24.2万吨）略减1.0%。从当月出 口目的地看，土耳其为主要出口国，出口量占总量的22%；巴基斯坦出口量排第二，占比20%；孟加拉出口量排第 三，占比17%；越南出口量排第四，占比16%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，降低关税的幅度远超出市场预期，中美经贸关系 快速缓和，支撑棉价偏强运行。国际方面，随着北半球陆续进入播种期，关注焦点已逐渐转移到新季供应，美棉 新年度缩种预期较强，支撑ICE美棉期价。不过近期美棉播种进度加快，主产区降雨恢复，旱情环比改善。后续需 ...

| | 1、 据美国农业部，5月美国2025/2026年度大豆产量预期为43.4亿蒲式耳，市场预期为43.38亿 | | --- | --- | | | 蒲式耳。5月美国2025/2026年度大豆期末库存预期为2.95亿蒲式耳，市场预期为3.62亿蒲式耳。 | | | 5月美国2025/2026年度大豆单产预期为52.5蒲式耳/英亩，市场预期为52.5蒲式耳/英亩。2、美 | | 行业 | 国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月11日当周，美国大豆种植率为 | | 信息 | 48%，高于市场预期的47%，此前一周为30%，去年同期为34%，五年均值为37%。 美国玉米种植率 | | | 为62%，高于市场预期的60%，此前一周为40%，去年同期为47%，五年均值为56%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆粕偏强震荡，菜粕震荡收跌。近期美豆产区天气整体较为顺利，有助于大豆播种 | | | 工作的推进。USDA公布本月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存均低于预估，报告数据利多。并且中 | | | 美双方在瑞士进行会谈并取得实质性进展，因此美豆出口前景得到改善美豆期价明显反弹。国内 | | | 方面， ...