1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Market sentiment is recovering, with weekly data showing a slight increase in the output of five major steel products and continued inventory reduction. The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak. Low inventory supports steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can provide upward momentum for absolute prices. The recommended trading range for rebar is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. Administrative production cuts still have an impact, but the form and volume of production cuts are undetermined. This week, the daily average pig iron output continued to increase slightly, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The finished products downstream continued to reduce inventory, and steel mills' profits improved, leading to continued production resumption. The future of high production levels depends on the terminal demand. Inventory increased before the festival, and the port inventory slightly accumulated. The iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. Coke - The second round of spot price increases for coke before the festival faced resistance and is currently in a negotiation stage. Considering the weakening of coking coal, the second round of price increases may not be realized. After the festival, the ex-factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trading price will be slightly weak. The supply side is increasing production due to good orders, and the demand side is supported by high pig iron production. However, the weak coking coal, overcapacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Coking Coal - After the festival, the supply-demand situation remains loose in the short term. The supply side includes continued production resumption of domestic mines and reduced imports of Mongolian coal. The demand side shows that downstream users are replenishing inventory, but mainly on a need-to basis. The inventory of mines is high, and the port inventory is decreasing. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon futures fell significantly, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and the factory inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a medium to high level. The demand side shows an increase in pig iron production, and the non-steel demand has improved seasonally. The export growth in March is considered unsustainable. The cost side is stable, but the electricity price needs further monitoring. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will be slightly weak in the short term [6]. Ferromanganese - The main contract of ferromanganese continued to decline, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The production reduction continued during the holiday, and the output increased slightly. The demand side is supported by high pig iron production, but the sustainability depends on the terminal demand. The manganese ore market is under pressure, with a decline in global shipments and high arrival volumes. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed different trends in different regions and contracts. The basis of some contracts changed [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products decreased, and the profit of some steel products also decreased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased, with a significant increase in the electric furnace output of rebar [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials decreased, but the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [3]. - **Supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and national monthly imports decreased [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, 45-port daily average ore removal volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The second round of spot price increases faced resistance [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of coking plants and steel mills increased [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output increased, and the inventory and available days of steel mills' coke increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, the coking plant inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The market coal auction was cold after a short recovery [5]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic mines increased, and the import of Mongolian coal decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The coke output increased slightly, and the downstream users replenished inventory [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mines was high, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory of downstream users was at a low level [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferrosilicon decreased, and the spot prices in some regions decreased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased, and the production profit in some regions changed [6]. - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon remained stable, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand remained stable, the pig iron output increased, and the steel output increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average available days of downstream users decreased [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferromanganese decreased, and the spot prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: The production of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the operating rate decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand increased slightly, and the procurement volume of steel mills remained stable [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days increased [6]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipment decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价低位震荡 | 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局平稳运行，钢厂生产积极，矿石需求表现强劲给予矿价支撑，但存触顶担忧，利 好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿石供应高位运行，而内矿供应相对平稳，整体铁矿石供应维持高位。 目前来看，铁矿石需求表现强劲，给予矿价支撑，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and the impact of production cuts on future pricing trends [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.37 million tons to 30.505 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments totaling 25.404 million tons, down by 2.179 million tons [4]. - Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.26 million tons, with shipments to China at 15.184 million tons, down by 1.289 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments increased by 0.08 million tons to 7.712 million tons [4]. Demand - Daily average pig iron production reached 2.4542 million tons, an increase of 10,700 tons month-on-month [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate was 84.33%, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 92%, up by 0.4 percentage points [3]. - Steel mill profit margins were 56.28%, down by 1.3 percentage points [3]. Inventory - As of April 30, total inventory at 45 ports was 1,430.248 million tons, an increase of 414,800 tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory rose by 2.6202 million tons to 93.3505 million tons, indicating significant pre-holiday stockpiling [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is under pressure due to administrative production cuts, with uncertainty regarding the extent and form of these cuts [6]. - The average daily iron production continues to rise, reaching historical highs, while downstream material inventory is being reduced [6]. - The future of iron ore prices will depend on terminal demand, with potential pressure from increased overseas shipments expected in May and June [6].

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/5/6 - 数据来源：MYSTEEL 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及 建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信 息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货 交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。 未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬 件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系 统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 声明 15 20 25 30 35 40 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 - 2022 2023 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation". With high steel production corresponding to moderate demand and inventory in a seasonal improvement stage, unilateral speculative short - selling is not cost - effective. For steel, wait for new contradictions to accumulate before entering the market, and choose hot - rolled coil with better liquidity in the spot - futures aspect [4][8]. - For coking coal and coke, the second round of price increase is temporarily shelved. With sufficient supply, expected peak of molten iron, and weakening pressure from the trade war in May, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. - In the ferroalloy market, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly during the holiday, while that of silicon - iron remained stable. Silicon - iron has low valuation and large production reduction, so it is recommended to try to go long on dips [6]. - For iron ore, although the price has recovered after a sharp drop during the holiday, due to the expectation of production control, it is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On April 30, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.45%); HC2601 at 3232 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.28%); I2601 at 679 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan (- 0.66%); J2601 at 1576 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan (- 0.85%); JM2601 at 980 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan (- 1.06%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3096 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.42%); HC2510 at 3204 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.44%); I2509 at 703.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.78%); J2509 at 1538 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.97%); JM2509 at 930.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.59%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On April 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2510 - 2601 was - 26 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton, I2509 - 2601 was 24.5 yuan/ton, J2509 - 2601 was - 38 yuan/ton, JM2509 - 2601 was - 49.5 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 108 yuan/ton, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.40, the ratio of coking coal to coke was 1.65, the rebar disk profit was 108.48 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 300.44 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: On April 30, the basis of HC (main contract) was 36 yuan/ton, RB was 104 yuan/ton, I was 72 yuan/ton, J was 120.66 yuan/ton, JM was 89.5 yuan/ton [2]. Steel - **Market Situation**: During the May Day holiday, most domestic steel spot markets were closed, and a few areas and varieties tried to increase prices. As of May 5, the price of billets in Tangshan increased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, and the price of finished products remained stable. The steel inventory is in a seasonal decline stage, and the export indicators have not shown a significant weakening trend. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation" [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: Before the holiday, some steel mills lowered the base price of top - charged coke by 20 yuan, and the second round of price increase was temporarily shelved. The coking coal auction had many unsuccessful bids, and the transaction price mainly decreased. During the holiday, the port customs clearance of Mongolian coal was on holiday, which may lead to further inventory reduction, but considering the sufficient supply of Mongolian coal, the customs clearance is likely to recover after the inventory in the supervision area decreases [5]. - **Futures Market**: During the holiday, most overseas industrial products fell due to concerns about insufficient demand. Although there are signals of negotiation between China and the US and the possibility of tariff relaxation, the trade war is still ongoing. The demand in the black market in May needs to be verified. The steel supply - demand was good before the holiday, but the price increase was still weak. In the future, the terminal demand is likely to weaken in May, and the supply policy has great uncertainty [5]. Ferroalloy - **Production Situation**: During the holiday, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly, and that of silicon - iron remained stable. The supply - demand of silicon - iron is tight, and the production reduction in the production area is large. Manganese - silicon is still in a surplus state, and it is difficult for some factories to reduce production [6]. - **Cost and Price**: During the holiday, the cost did not change significantly. Manganese ore prices are under pressure from high supply, chemical coke is stable, and the price of raw coal for semi - coke has a small increase. The alloy price matches the current supply - demand and valuation, and silicon - iron has a low valuation [6]. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipment remained stable, and the Australian shipment decreased significantly this period. The subsequent arrival volume will also remain stable. The steel mill's molten iron output increased significantly this period, reaching 244.35 tons per day (+4.23), and it is expected to be at a high - level shock in the next three weeks. The steel export situation has not weakened [7]. - **Valuation and Trading Strategy**: The short - term valuation of iron ore is relatively low, but the expectation of production control restricts the market valuation. After a sharp drop during the holiday, the price has basically recovered. It is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]

Group 1 - As of May 5, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes is reported at 1379.07 points, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous period [1] - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 26.344 million tons, a decrease of 452,000 tons week-on-week [1] - The total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports for the same period were 24.497 million tons, down by 631,000 tons compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for April 2025 is expected to be 1.79 million tons, an increase of 14.8% from March; production is projected at 1.62 million tons, up 16.9% from March; and exports are expected to reach 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March [1] - As of April 24, 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption for the year is reported at 4.44 million liters, with 3.2 million liters consumed from January to March; the mandatory palm oil blending ratio for biodiesel in Indonesia is set at 40%, up from 35% last year [1] Group 3 - As of May 3, 2025, Brazil's soybean harvest rate for the 2024/25 season is at 97.7%, compared to 94.8% the previous week and 94.3% the same time last year, with a five-year average of 96.3% [1] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 4, 2025, the soybean planting rate in the U.S. is at 30%, below market expectations of 31%, and up from 18% the previous week and 24% last year, with a five-year average of 23%; the emergence rate is at 7%, compared to 8% last year and a five-year average of 5% [2] - India's Ministry of Mines reports that aluminum production for the fiscal year 2024-25 is expected to increase to 420,000 tons from 416,000 tons in 2023-24; refined copper production is projected to grow by 12.6%, from 509,000 tons in 2023-24 to 573,000 tons [2]

Report Title - Iron Ore Monthly Report: Supply-demand structure weakens, ore prices fluctuate weakly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In May, the global iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and the static supply and demand are relatively loose. Prices will fluctuate weakly [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - In April, the spot and futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of April 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton month-on-month [4] Supply Side - The shipments of the four major mines will increase in May, with an estimated month-on-month increase of 625000 tons [5][29][36] - Non-mainstream mines are estimated to ship 40.3 million tons in May, an increase of about 30000 tons [5][32][36] - Domestic mine production is expected to reach 21 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 60000 tons [5][35][36] - The overall global supply in May will increase by about 7.15 million tons month-on-month [5][36] Demand Side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the estimated national pig iron output in April was 72.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In May, the blast furnace hot metal output is expected to be 74.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million tons. The demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by 3.5 million tons [5][15][21] - Overseas, the daily average pig iron output outside China is generally stable. It is estimated that the pig iron output in May will decrease by about 30000 tons month-on-month, and the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will decrease by about 50000 tons [5][18][21] - Globally, the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by about 3 million tons in May [5][21] Steel Mill Conditions - At the end of April, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a year-on-year increase of 4.60 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a year-on-year increase of 6.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 810 tons [9] - In April, the profitability of long and short process steel mills remained stable, and the production enthusiasm was fair; short process steel mills remained in the red, and the production enthusiasm was not strong [12] Inventory - At the end of April, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 143 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons. It is expected to accumulate in May [37] - Steel mills replenish inventory on demand, and the inventory fluctuates within a narrow range [39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint In the context of the trade war, although the time and manner of the implementation of production - restriction policies are uncertain, it is highly likely that such policies will be introduced, leading to a long - term expectation of decreased iron ore demand. Even if the policies are not implemented in the short term, steel mill profits will be squeezed first, followed by forced production cuts, which will also reduce iron ore demand. In terms of supply, the second quarter is expected to see an increase in iron ore supply, and port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. Therefore, iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure in the later period [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Overview In early April, iron ore prices dropped significantly due to systemic risks. After mid - April, prices returned to the fundamental logic of high hot metal production, and decreasing supply and inventory, outperforming steel prices. In late April, prices weakened again due to rumors of crude steel production cuts. It is expected that in the next 1 - 2 months, iron ore prices may experience a catch - up decline, with spot prices possibly falling to $85 - 90 per ton [7]. Iron Water High Production May Not Be Sustainable In April, the daily hot metal production reached a high of 2.4453 million tons. Given the weak domestic steel demand and external trade conflicts, it is highly likely that production - restriction policies will be introduced, though the time and manner of implementation are uncertain. In May, steel demand is likely to weaken. If production - restriction policies are not implemented within 1 - 2 months, steel supply will remain high, squeezing steel mill profits and forcing production cuts. In any case, daily hot metal production is unlikely to stay above 2.4 million tons for long [7][8]. Second - Quarter Supply Has an Uptrend Expectation Affected by factors such as Australian cyclones and Brazilian railway transportation disruptions, the production and sales of iron ore in the first quarter were at a low level. The output of the four major mines in the first quarter was 246 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and sales were 249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Historically, the second quarter is the peak season for iron ore shipments. Based on the average of the past four years, the global iron ore shipments in the second quarter are expected to increase by about 56 million tons compared to the first quarter. The four major mines have not lowered their annual shipment targets, so there is an expectation of increased supply in the second quarter [10][11]. Iron Ore Inventory Inflection Point May Appear in May From late March to mid - April, the arrival volume of iron ore decreased, while hot metal production increased. Due to pre - holiday steel mill restocking, iron ore port inventories decreased for three consecutive weeks in April, with a cumulative decrease of 4.644 million tons. Currently, steel mill restocking has temporarily ended. Looking forward, supply is likely to continue to increase, and hot metal production is likely to decline. Therefore, after May, iron ore port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. This is also supported by the ratio of iron ore port clearance volume to arrival volume [12]. Conclusion and Investment Advice The real - world fundamentals of iron ore were still strong in April. Looking ahead, the expectation of decreased iron ore demand will persist. Supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, and port inventories are likely to rise. Iron ore spot prices face pressure around $100 per ton and may fall to $85 - 90 per ton. Considering the discount factor, the iron ore 09 contract faces pressure around 720 - 730 [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. A rebound requires steel mills to cut production or an improvement in demand expectations. Temporarily, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - finished products and short - raw materials arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure. The sustainability of high hot metal production depends on terminal demand, and there are supply - side risks such as increased overseas shipments and potential production cuts [4]. Coke - Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakening of coking coal and the possible issuance of a flat - control document for crude steel production are expected to bring pressure. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices may continue to decline. There is still room for decline in the future. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations and consider going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Although the supply - demand situation has marginally improved after production cuts, the high inventory and the uncertain demand limit the price rebound, but the cost provides support [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese prices are expected to decline steadily. The supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support is insufficient [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Steel prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production increased by 4.2 tons to 244.4 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.2%, with rebar inventory down by 4.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material transactions decreased by 7.3%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties declined slightly, and the basis of some contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments increased slightly, while the arrivals at ports decreased significantly [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.8%, and the monthly production of pig iron and crude steel increased significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 0.6%, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased slightly [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a mixed trend, with the 2505 contract rising and the 2509 contract falling. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened [6]. - **Supply**: Coke production increased, with the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increasing by 2.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The iron - making capacity utilization rate of downstream steel mills increased, and the iron water production reached over 244 tons per day [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with coking plant inventories decreasing and steel mill inventories increasing slightly [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract falling more significantly. The 5 - 9 spread stabilized [6]. - **Supply**: Domestic coal mines continued to resume production, but the port customs clearance decreased [6]. - **Demand**: Coking production increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal from downstream users increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with upstream mine inventories increasing and port inventories decreasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production continued to decrease, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased significantly, and the non - steel demand showed seasonal improvement [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production decreased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and the building material demand may have reached its peak [7]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased, but the arrivals at ports remained high, and the port inventory increased by 5.0% [7].